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The current format of the Play Updates has changed. Only the pertinent data that has changed from the prior week will be shown in an effort to concentrate more on new commentary on new plays rather than restating existing positions. Each play has a link back to either its last full commentary or its initial description.

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BTU - $43.05 1.30 - Peabody Energy

BTU continued to move higher through the week but profit taking on Friday knocked -1.60 of the week's gains. Gas prices are rising and cold weather is coming making the perfect conditions for rising coal demand. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 19th .53 cents, up 26%

Position:
10/22/06 Jan-2009 $50 LEAP Call ZZT-AJ @ $8.70

No insurance put at this time.

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DVN - $67.39 -0.14 - Devon Energy

The massive call option buying that hit the prior week has cooled and with it the move higher by Devon which topped at $70 this week. Profit taking on Friday could be a buying opportunity ahead of their earnings on Wednesday.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Insurance put:
Buy Jan-2007 $55 Put DVN-MK only if DVN trades at $60 again.

Earnings schedule: Nov 1st

LEAP Position:
10/03/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VVH-AN @ $9.00

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RIG - $72.13 1.85 - Transocean Inc

RIG hit a new three month high on Wednesday at $74.75. Ensco (ESV) has already reported earnings and reported sharply higher rig rates for the quarter. If this carries over into RIG and DO we could see some decent number when RIG reports on Thursday.

Their rig report released Oct-2nd

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Insurance put:
Buy Jan $60 PUT RIG-ML only if RIG trades at $65.

Earnings schedule: Nov 2nd

LEAP Position:
10/03/06 Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call VOI-AP @ $12.90

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TSO - $63.61 -$0.94 - Tesoro Corporation

TSO is holding the high ground ahead of its earnings on Thursday. Refining margins have risen with the pressure off crude prices and earnings should be decent. No other news and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Insurance put:
Buy Feb $50 PUT TSO-NJ only if TSO trades at $54

Earnings schedule: Nov 2nd

LEAP Position:
10/04/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call ZGC-AN @ $7.70

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APC - $46.53 0.88 Anadarko Petroleum

APC was among several companies (CVX, COP, FEX LP part of TLM, UltraStar and Alaska Venture Capital Group) who won exploration rights on more than 200,000 acres of land bordering the National Petroleum Reserve. 44 onshore tracts and 13 offshore tracts were awarded for about $3.2 million.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

No change in play.

Earnings schedule: Nov 7th

LEAP Position:
9/20/06 Position: 2009 $50 LEAP Call OCP-AJ @ $6.90

Insurance put: 9/25
Position: Jan $40 PUT APC-MH @ $2.35, profit stop @ $35.00

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CEO $84.56 $1.20 Cnooc Ltd

CEO closed at a new two month high on no news ahead of earnings now reported to be released on Tuesday.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

No insurance put

Earnings schedule: Oct-31st

Position: March $90 Call CEO-CS @ $2.40 (no leaps)

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SU $76.94 1.78 Suncor Energy

Steady climb after earnings were released showing profits more than doubled over the same quarter in 2005. Earnings rose to 1.48 per share from 0.57 in 2005. Suncor is on track to double its oil sands production by 2010-2012 to more than 550,000 bpd. Nothing by good news from Suncor and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 26th, $1.48 vs $0.57 year ago qtr

LEAP Position: 9/11/06
Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call OYX-AP @ $14.30

Insurance put: 9/18
Position: Dec $60 Put SU-XL @ $2.10, no stop

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SLB $62.81 2.70 Schlumberger

SLB rose to a new two month high at $64.68 after earnings and despite a -$2 drop from profit taking as the week ended SLB still managed to retain a nice gain. SLB nearly doubled earnings over the prior year and they should attract additional investors as money comes back to the sector.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 20th: 81 cents vs 44 in Y.A.Q.

LEAP Position:
1/2 9/11/06 @ $8.60
1/2 9/12/06 @ $8.00
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VWY-AN @ $8.30

Insurance Put: 9/18
Position: Jan $50 Put SLB-MJ @ $2.00, no stop

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NBR $31.08 $0.44 Nabors Industries

New life for Nabors after earnings. Nabors posted earnings of $1.02 per share compared to 55 cents in the year-ago-qtr (YAQ). Revenue rose 40% and the company said business was booming with $1.2 billion in new long term contracts.

Link to recent presentation

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 25th, $1.02 vs 0.55 in YAQ

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 2009 $40 LEAP Call VRB-AH @ $4.50

No insurance

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UPL $54.82 2.12 Ultra Petroleum

UPL continued to extend its gains ahead of its earnings on Oct-31st. A new three-month high was set on Thursday with only slight profit taking with the sector on Friday. I have heard two presentations from UPL recently (listen below) and I expect their earnings to be stellar. I guess that sets me up for a disappointment but I am very bullish on this stock.

UPL said recently that their profit margins at $4 gas were 30%, $6 gas 50% and $8 gas 100%. They have a 16-year inventory of wells to be drilled.

OGIS Investment Conference on Oct-4th.
Enercom Oil and Gas presentation

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 31st

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call OZH-AL @ $10.60

Insurance Put:
9/18 Position: JAN $40 Put UPL-MH @ $2.85, no stop

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SUN $66.40 $0.82 Sunoco

SUN continued to hold its gains while we wait for earnings on Wednesday. Refiners are flat lining due to unknowns about profits during the oil crash. With the majors reporting good results I expect SUN to do well also. No news and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Nov 1st

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VUN-AN @ $13.50

Insurance Put:
Position: Jan $55 Put SUN-MK @ $2.40, no stop

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PXP $42.90 0.41 Plains Exploration

PXP continued to creep slowly higher. They changed their earnings date to the 9th and the conference call is 9:AM Central on Wednesday. Investors wishing to participate in the conference call may dial 1-800-567-9836. No change in play.

Maintain $35 profit stop on Jan $40 insurance put.

OGIS Investment Conference on Oct-4th

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Nov 9th

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $50 LEAP Call ZXL-AJ @ 7.50

Insurance Put:
9/25 Jan $40 Put PXP-MH @ $1.90

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FST $32.74 $0.41 Forest Oil

FST has flat lined between $32-$34 ahead of earnings now scheduled for Nov-8th. A conference call is scheduled for Thursday, November 9, 2006, at 12:00 pm MT to discuss the release. You may access the call by dialing toll free 800.399.6298 and request the Forest Oil teleconference (ID # 9784416). A Q&A period will follow. I have heard their recent presentations and I think there will be positive news. No change in play.

Enercom conference presentation

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Nov-8th

LEAP Position: 9/12/06
Position: 2009 $40 LEAP Call OJG-AH @ 4.50

No insurance due to cheap LEAP

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XTO $46.51 $2.10 - XTO Energy

XTO had a very good week after posting earnings that rose 17%. Gas production rose 12%, NGL 19% and oil production 7% in Q3. No change in play.

OGIS conference presentation on Oct 4th
Enercom presentation

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 24th, $0.99 vs $0.85 in YAQ

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $50 LEAP Call OUO-AJ @ $6.50

Insurance Put: Feb $35 Put XTO-NG @ $1.40, no stop

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VLO $53.12 $0.94 Valero Energy

Valero reports earnings on Tuesday but CEO Bill Klesse has gone on record saying their sour crude margins remain very strong. The steep drop in gasoline prices impacted everyone but Valero should have been hurt less than the others due to its sour crude capability. VLO estimates are for earnings of $2.25 to $2.35. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 31st

LEAP Position:
9/24/06 Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call VHB-AL @ $7.70

Insurance Put:
Position: 9/25 Jan $45 Put VLO-MI @ $2.25, no stop

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PBR - $89.01 $3.45 - Petroleo Brasileiro

PBR captured a very nice gain for the week ahead of the decision in Bolivia. Petrobras was locked in talks with Bolivia on Saturday ahead of the midnight deadline set by the government to either turn over 51% of their business or leave the country completely. Petrobras, a state owned Brazilian energy company is refusing to turn over its assets and pledges to seek compensation in international courts if no satisfactory agreement can be reached. Currently Petrobras controls 47.3% of the natural gas reserves in Bolivia. This weekend should be the final battle in this war. Total has agreed to the nationalism and signed a new contract calling for new investment of $2.1 billion in Bolivia. PBR has already invested $1.5 billion and wants it back if Bolivia kicks them out. This is the only negative to the PBR play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Nov 10th

LEAP Position:
9/08/06 Position: 2009 $100 LEAP Call VDW-AT @ $14.90

Insurance put:
9/11 January $70 PBR-MN @ $1.80, no stop

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DO - $70.93 $3.59 - Diamond Offshore

DO missed analyst estimates by -6 cents but profits doubled as demand for the company's equipment and services soared. Profits rose to $1.19 from 0.60. Revenue jumped 66% to $514.5 million from $310 million. Day rates continued to rise and long term contracts were increasing.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 27th. $1.19 vs $0.60 in YAQ

LEAP Position:
8/29/06 Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call VCT-AP @ 14.20
Cost reduction: Oct $70 Put profit -3.15, cost now $11.05

Insurance Put:
Position: 10/08 Dec $60 Put DO-XL @ $2.40, no stop

Position closed:
10/03 October $70 put DO-VN @ $1.65, exit @ $4.80, 3.15

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CSX - $36.46 $0.48 - CSX Corp

CSX finally rested after setting a new all time high on Wednesday at $38.30. It was time for a rest and I have no complaints. No change in play. No other news, no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 17th, 54 cents, 50%

LEAP Position:
9/03/06 Position: 2009 $35 LEAP Call OBC-AG @ $4.90

Insurance put:
9/11 November $30 Put CSX-WF @ $1.40, stop $25

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ATPG - $43.35 $2.34 - ATP Oil and Gas Corp ** No Stop **

ATP continued to extend its gains and posted a new 5-month high on Friday. No news and no earnings date yet. I have emailed the company for a date but nothing yet. Based on prior earnings dates it should be next week. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

OGIS Investment Conference on Oct 5th.

Earnings schedule: N/A

LEAP Position:
8/20/06 Position: 2009 $40 LEAP Call VCL-AH @ $11.70

Insurance put:
9/06 Position Dec $35 PUT HKU-XG @ $1.50, stop at $30

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PTR - $110.70 $0.87 - Petrochina

PTR continues to hold its gains but has failed to retest the $115 mark from August. PTR announced on Friday oil discoveries in three new wells in China's Junggar basin. Initial gas output in one well was 510,000 cubic meters per day and 150,000 CM in another. This was the highest output reported in the basin. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Current recommendation: Buy under $105

Earnings: August 24th, $10.1 billion, 29%

LEAP Position:
5/14/06 Position: 2008 $120 LEAP Call LJC-AD @ $16.20
Cost adjustment: Close short Dec $115 call 1.30 = $17.50
Cost adjustment: Close long July $90 puts 3.00 = $20.50
Cost adjustment: Close long Sept $110 put -2.60 = $17.90

Insurance put: (9/11)
Position: December $100 Put PTR-XT @ $2.20, stop $90

Insurance put: (8/13)
Position closed:
Sept $110 Put PTR-UB @ $2.40, stop @ $106 @ $5.00, 2.60

Insurance combo: Closed
Short: Dec $115 Call PTR-LC @ $3.20, 6/13, exit $4.50, -1.30
Long: (2) July $90 Puts PTR-SR @ $3.70, 6/13, exit $0.70, -3.00

Insurance puts: (Closed 6/7)
Closed: June $105 PUT PTR-RA, @ $4.20 (5/22), exit 6/7 @ $4.30

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CCJ - $35.15 -$2.98 - Cameco ** Dropped **

CCJ rebounded slightly from its mine disaster sell off but not enough to rescue us from a loss of -$4.20 on the position. See the BHP play description for an update on the story.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Current recommendation: Buy under $35

Earnings schedule: Nov 1st

LEAP Position: 2/25/2006
Position: 2008 $40 LEAP LTA-AH @ $9.00, exit $4.80, 10/30, -4.20

No insurance put


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Non Energy Positions
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CAT - $61.30 2.30 - Caterpillar

Everything was going so well with CAT and a nice rebound was underway until the Ingersoll-Rand disaster on Friday. I believe CAT will recover quickly and this was only a temporary setback.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Position:
10/22/06 JAN-2009 $70 LEAP Call VKT-AN @ $7.20

No insurance due to strong support at $57.

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TEX - $51.22 0.92 - Terex Corp

Like CAT Terex was rebounding nicely and even set a new all time high of $56.54 on Thursday before the IR earnings miss knocked it back for a -$3 loss on Friday. Earnings on Wednesday nearly doubled to 98 cents from 51 cents in the year ago quarter. Revenue rose to $1.9 billion from $1.49 billion. Margins increased by 3.1% and TEX expects them to go higher. Return on invested capital rose to 33% for the 12 months ended on Sept-30th. Full year revenues are expected to rise to $7.5 billion with profits to be in the range of $3.70 after -22 cents in charges. Earnings per share in 2005 were $1.90. Order backlogs doubled to more than $2.3 billion.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here:

Earnings: Oct 25th, $0.98 vs $0.51 in YAQ

Position:
10/23/06 Jan-2009 $60 LEAP VXQ-AL @ $10.90

Insurance Put:
10/23/06 Jan-$45 PUT TEX-MI only is TEX trades at $48.

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DHI - $23.75 $0.52 - DR Horton

Another week of three steps forward, two steps back. DHI spiked to $24.60 on Thursday but imploded on the weak GDP due to housing. Earnings still two weeks away with strong resistance at $25. Initial support at $23, strong support at $20. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Nov 14th

LEAP Position:
9/24/06 Position: 2009 $25 LEAP Call VEI-AE @ $5.10
 

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