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The current format of the Play Updates has changed. Only the pertinent data that has changed from the prior week will be shown in an effort to concentrate more on new commentary on new plays rather than restating existing positions. Each play has a link back to either its last full commentary or its initial description.

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HES - $45.00 + 2.15 - Hess Corporation (Formerly (AHC))

No news but a nice gain as a new trend develops. No complaints, no change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Position:
11/05/06 2009 $50 LEAP Call VHS-AJ @ $6.80

No insurance due to cheap LEAP, strong support and positive trend.

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BHP - $42.29 -.34 - BHP Billiton

BHP eased slightly on the pause in gold prices. No news and no change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Insurance Put:
Buy Feb $40 Put BHP-NH currently $1.50

Position:
10/29/06 2009 $40 LEAP Call ZPK-AH @ $11.10

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BTU - $41.46 -.59 - Peabody Energy

BTU fell slightly after Foundation Coal warned on Tuesday they would miss earnings due to higher costs and lower production. It has nothing to do with BTU but they were painted with the same broad brush. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 19th .53 cents, up +26%

Position:
10/22/06 Jan-2009 $50 LEAP Call ZZT-AJ @ $8.70

No insurance put at this time.

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DVN - $70.09 +1.36 - Devon Energy

Devon continued to move higher on positive news from the Barnett Shale production area. Boardwalk Pipeline and Enterprise Partners announced plans to build a $1.1 billion 355 mile pipeline which will carry nearly 1 bcf of gas per day much of it from Devon wells. No complaints and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Insurance put:
Buy Apr-2007 $60 Put DVN-PL only if DVN trades at $64 again.

Earnings schedule: Nov 1st, $1.66, beat by +14 cents

LEAP Position:
10/03/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VVH-AN @ $9.00

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RIG - $75.67 +.57 - Transocean Inc

RIG hit a new three-month high on Thursday at $78.50. The positive earnings continue to provide strong support. RIG will present at the Bank America Energy Conference on Nov-16th. Investors can listen in at the company website, www.DeepWater.com. No change in play.

Their rig report released Oct-31st: http://tinyurl.com/vkwuv

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Insurance put:
Buy Jan $60 PUT RIG-ML only if RIG trades at $65.

Earnings schedule: Nov 2nd, 83 cents, 12 cent beat

LEAP Position:
10/03/06 Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call VOI-AP @ $12.90

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TSO - $65.40 +$0.93 - Tesoro Corporation

TSO is trying hard to break resistance at $66 but can't seem to get that last push higher it needs to make the break. No news and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Insurance put:
Buy Feb $55 PUT TSO-NK only if TSO trades at $59

Earnings schedule: Nov 2nd, $3.92, 66 cent beat

LEAP Position:
10/04/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call ZGC-AN @ $7.70

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APC - $47.25 -0.20 Anadarko Petroleum

APC hit a new two-month high on Thursday at $49 but gave up ground due to profit taking on Friday's decline in oil. APC also said it was considering selling its Venezuelan assets given the asset grab underway by Hugo Chavez. Less than 1% of APC income comes from Venezuela and they are considering cutting the risk by dumping the properties. Other majors are considering the same tactic in reaction to continued attacks on assets through taxation and new equity rules. This would be a positive for me as it would remove a potential future negative event. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

No change in play.

Earnings schedule: Nov 7th

LEAP Position:
9/20/06 Position: 2009 $50 LEAP Call OCP-AJ @ $6.90

Insurance put: 9/25
Position: Jan $40 PUT APC-MH @ $2.35, profit stop @ $35.00

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CEO $87.42 +2.70 Cnooc Ltd

CEO spiked +$4 intra-week on news of a new gas discovery in the Bohai Bay field off China's coast. This news sent CEO over resistance at $85 to a new two month high. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

No insurance put

Earnings schedule: Oct-31st, $2.33B rev, +25%, no EPS given

Position: March $90 Call CEO-CS @ $2.40 (no leaps)

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SU $79.21 +2.10 Suncor Energy

Suncor spiked to a new 2 month high at $81.80 on Thursday but gave into profit taking on Friday. After the close on Friday Suncor announced an 8-cent dividend. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 26th, $1.48 vs $0.57 year ago qtr

LEAP Position: 9/11/06
Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call OYX-AP @ $14.30

Insurance put: 9/18
Position: Dec $60 Put SU-XL @ $2.10, no stop

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SLB $63.30 -0.19 Schlumberger

SLB spiked to hit a new three-month high at 66.24 on Thursday but cratered on Friday profit taking back to $63 to remove all the gains for the week. There was no news and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 20th: 81 cents vs 44 in Y.A.Q.

LEAP Position:
1/2 9/11/06 @ $8.60
1/2 9/12/06 @ $8.00
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VWY-AN @ $8.30

Insurance Put: 9/18
Position: Jan $50 Put SLB-MJ @ $2.00, no stop

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NBR $31.92 +$0.60 Nabors Industries

No news, no change in play.

Link to recent presentation: http://tinyurl.com/o5jmy

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 25th, $1.02 vs 0.55 in YAQ

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 2009 $40 LEAP Call VRB-AH @ $4.50

No insurance

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UPL $51.20 -.64 Ultra Petroleum

UPL is still undergoing post earnings depression and is showing an identical chart to the December gas futures. It is flat lining with high volatility. UPL is tied to gas prices and those prices will move higher as colder weather arrives. No change in play.

UPL said recently that their profit margins at $4 gas were +30%, $6 gas 50% and $8 gas 100%. They have a 16-year inventory of wells to be drilled.

OGIS Investment Conference on Oct-4th. http://tinyurl.com/y6xsq3
Enercom Oil and Gas presentation: http://tinyurl.com/kn5cb

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 31st, +33 cents

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call OZH-AL @ $10.60

Insurance Put:
9/18 Position: JAN $40 Put UPL-MH @ $2.85, no stop

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SUN $65.33 -1.86 Sunoco

SUN continued to vacillate between $64-$67 on no news. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Nov 1st

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VUN-AN @ $13.50

Insurance Put:
Position: Jan $55 Put SUN-MK @ $2.40, no stop

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PXP $42.79 +0.59 Plains Exploration

PXP spiked +2.50 on earnings and the completion of $1.6 billion in asset sales. The asset sales allowed PXP to extinguish $250 million in debt and fund a $600 million CapEx budget for 2007. Unfortunately Friday's drop in oil prices saw profit takers erase most of those gains. No change in play.

Maintain $35 profit stop on Jan $40 insurance put.

OGIS Investment Conference on Oct-4th: http://tinyurl.com/y7vn2w

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Nov 9th

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $50 LEAP Call ZXL-AJ @ 7.50

Insurance Put:
9/25 Jan $40 Put PXP-MH @ $1.90

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FST $33.33 -$0.06 Forest Oil

FST was the victim of severe volatility after they announced earnings, which after items rose ten times the same quarter in 2005. Forest is poised to see a substantial increase in production and I do expect resistance at $35 to be broken soon. No change in play.

Enercom conference presentation: http://tinyurl.com/ggzmv

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Nov-8th, +1.21 vs +0.05

LEAP Position: 9/12/06
Position: 2009 $40 LEAP Call OJG-AH @ 4.50

No insurance due to cheap LEAP

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XTO $46.28 +$0.42 - XTO Energy

XTO announced it has hedged 50% of its 2007 gas production or 338 BCF at $10.24. This is very positive as it gives them a guaranteed revenue base while allowing them to profit even more from the unhedged portion if gas prices rise further. The market did not applaud but XTO did hold its ground just under resistance at $48. No change in play.

OGIS conference presentation on Oct 4th: http://tinyurl.com/v6ram
Enercom presentation: http://tinyurl.com/qorbr

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 24th, $0.99 vs $0.85 in YAQ

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $50 LEAP Call OUO-AJ @ $6.50

Insurance Put:
Feb $35 Put XTO-NG @ $1.40, no stop

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VLO $52.76 -$.84 Valero Energy

Valero appears to be forming a base as refining margins are increasing. The Motley Fool called VLO the best blue chip for 2007 on Friday citing its dominance in the US market and its better margins from processing sour crude. Its PE of only 7 is well below its peers. Nothing new for us as I have been preaching the benefits of VLO for several years now. We have strong resistance at $55 but I think we will close the year a lot higher.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 31st, +$2.42 vs $2.30

LEAP Position:
9/24/06 Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call VHB-AL @ $7.70

Insurance Put:
Position: 9/25 Jan $45 Put VLO-MI @ $2.25, no stop

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PBR - $92.88 +$3.97 - Petroleo Brasileiro

PBR sprinted to a new three month high this week as Peru offered a sweetheart deal to Petrobras to offset the problems they had with Bolivia. Peru is signing a multi year deal with PBR and the Peruvian President Alan Garcia promised that details would not change in the future. He took a jab at the "leftist" countries in the region and offered Brazil access not only to Peruvian hydrocarbons but also hydroelectric sources. PBR also posted profits that rose +29%. I think PBR is going to move higher now that the Bolivia issue has been settled. No change in the play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Nov 10th, +29%

LEAP Position:
9/08/06 Position: 2009 $100 LEAP Call VDW-AT @ $14.90

Insurance put:
9/11 January $70 PBR-MN @ $1.80, no stop

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DO - $75.26 +4.28 - Diamond Offshore

DO was our strongest performer last week with nearly a +$10 surge from the prior week's lows. Even after a -2.50 end of week swoon we were left with a nice gain for the week. There was no news other than strong earnings from other drillers. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 27th. $1.19 vs $0.60 in YAQ

LEAP Position:
8/29/06 Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call VCT-AP @ 14.20
Cost reduction: Oct $70 Put profit -3.15, cost now $11.05

Insurance Put:
Position: 10/08 Dec $60 Put DO-XL @ $2.40, no stop

Position closed:
10/03 October $70 put DO-VN @ $1.65, exit @ $4.80, +3.15

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CSX - $36.81 +$1.11 - CSX Corp

CSX continues to move higher after the sell off in late October. The stronger jobs numbers suggests the economy is not as weak as investors thought and shippers are reporting strong volumes. No other news, no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 17th, 54 cents, +50%

LEAP Position:
9/03/06 Position: 2009 $35 LEAP Call OBC-AG @ $4.90

Insurance put:
9/11 November $30 Put CSX-WF @ $1.40, stop $25

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ATPG - $44.24 +$1.43 - ATP Oil and Gas Corp

ATP continues to move higher on its strong earnings and appears poised to break resistance at $44 and head for a new high over $50. With a market cap of only $1.3B they could be a prime takeover candidate. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

OGIS Investment Conference on Oct 5th. http://tinyurl.com/y5jod2

Earnings schedule: N/A

LEAP Position:
8/20/06 Position: 2009 $40 LEAP Call VCL-AH @ $11.70

Insurance put:
9/06 Position Dec $35 PUT HKU-XG @ $1.50, stop at $30

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PTR - $115.44 +$3.18 - Petrochina

PTR is finally gaining some speed and hit six-month resistance at $117 on Thursday and only suffered limited profit taking. I think a breakout is just ahead and we could see $200 by the end of 2007. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Current recommendation: Buy under $105

Earnings: August 24th, $10.1 billion, +29%

LEAP Position:
5/14/06 Position: 2008 $120 LEAP Call LJC-AD @ $16.20
Cost adjustment: Close short Dec $115 call +1.30 = $17.50
Cost adjustment: Close long July $90 puts +3.00 = $20.50
Cost adjustment: Close long Sept $110 put -2.60 = $17.90

Insurance put: (9/11)
Position: December $100 Put PTR-XT @ $2.20, stop $90

Insurance put: (8/13)
Position closed:
Sept $110 Put PTR-UB @ $2.40, stop @ $106 @ $5.00, +2.60

Insurance combo: Closed
Short: Dec $115 Call PTR-LC @ $3.20, 6/13, exit $4.50, -1.30
Long: (2) July $90 Puts PTR-SR @ $3.70, 6/13, exit $0.70, -3.00

Insurance puts: (Closed 6/7)
Closed: June $105 PUT PTR-RA, @ $4.20 (5/22), exit 6/7 @ $4.30


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Non Energy Positions
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CAT - $59.60 - 0.83 - Caterpillar ** Stop loss $58 **

CAT retested its disaster bottom at $59 on Friday and this should be the point where we find out if it will recover or roll over for good. We have plenty of time on the LEAP but I am going to put a stop on it rather than initiate the put position I had diagrammed before. Stop loss $58.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Position:
10/22/06 JAN-2009 $70 LEAP Call VKT-AN @ $7.20

Insurance Put: cancel prior put target


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TEX - $52.59 +1.58 - Terex Corp

Terex has shown some significant volatility over the last two weeks but continues to hold well above support at $50. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 25th, $0.98 vs $0.51 in YAQ

Position:
10/23/06 Jan-2009 $60 LEAP VXQ-AL @ $10.90

Insurance Put:
10/23/06 Jan-$45 PUT TEX-MI only is TEX trades at $48.

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DHI - $22.45 -$0.32 - DR Horton

After a significant decline midweek DHI sprinted higher on Friday to close flat for the week. Eventually the housing market will find a bottom that sticks so no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Nov 14th

LEAP Position:
9/24/06 Position: 2009 $25 LEAP Call VEI-AE @ $5.10

 

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