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The current format of the Play Updates has changed. Only the pertinent data that has changed from the prior week will be shown in an effort to concentrate more on new commentary on new plays rather than restating existing positions. Each play has a link back to either its last full commentary or its initial description.

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LNG - $30.70 -0.55 - Cheniere Energy ** Stop Loss $27.00 **

No news no change in play. LNG slid a little on Thr/Fri but remains close enough to resistance at $32 that a breakout is possible.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Breakout target $31 triggered 11/30/06

Position 2009 $30 LEAP ONP-AF @ $8.50

No insurance: $25 is out of range and $30 is too expensive

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SNP - $80.58 -0.42 Sinopec

After gaining +$6 last week a -42 cent drop is definitely acceptable. Most of it came on Friday on the sharp uptick in the dollar. The drop was due to a press release saying SNP was spending $447 million to buy assets from its parent China Petrochemical Corp. It is buying controlling interest in several oil fields currently producing inside China. It will also sell US $1.5 billion in convertible bonds to build several large scale chemical plants. The issue size, rate, conversion price and structure has not been released. SNP is still a monopoly so nothing has really changed. Consider Friday's drop profit taking.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Entry $74.44 11/28/06

Position: July $80 Call SNP-GP @ $5.40

No insurance

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FXI $96.85 +2.70 - FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund

Nice rebound in FXI to a new historic high. No news.

The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index.

Component list

This iShare focuses on the largest companies in China (58% of it positions) and Hong Kong (42%). These are the most liquid companies in these markets. With Asia growing by leaps and bounds the FXI generated a +40% return in 2005 without using options. We hope to do better using LEAPs.

Breakout target: $94.50 hit 11/22/06 on gap open to $95.80

Position: 2009 $100 LEAP Call VHF-AT @ $13.50

No insurance

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MRO $93.73 -1.92 - Marathon Oil

Marathon hit a new historic high on Wednesday and then dropped a couple bucks back to support after Deutsche Bank cut them to a hold. It said it was cutting MRO from its list to avoid over exposure to the refining sector. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Position 2009 $100 LEAP Call VXM-AT @ $12.60

Insurance put: None

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HES - $51.91 +1.61 - Hess Corporation (Formerly (AHC))

Outstanding! HES continues to set new 4-month highs with a new one on Friday. BAC downgraded HES to neutral on Tuesday but it barely dented its forward progress. Hess announced a regular quarterly dividend of 10 cents on Wednesday. No complaints and no change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Position:
11/05/06 2009 $50 LEAP Call VHS-AJ @ $6.80

No insurance due to cheap LEAP, strong support and positive trend.

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BHP - $40.63 -0.26 - BHP Billiton

BHP was cut to neutral by Merrill along with the entire mining sector on worries that a slowing economy in 2007 could impact copper prices. BHP lost -61 cents on the news.

BHP continues to hold above support despite those rumors that it could outbid Freeport for PD. We have a good insurance put position in case they do something stupid. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Position:
10/29/06 2009 $40 LEAP Call ZPK-AH @ $11.10

Insurance Put:
11/12/06 Feb $40 Put BHP-NH @ $1.50

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BTU - $47.66 +0.67 - Peabody Energy

BTU continued to move higher after a +$4 move the prior week. HSBC initiated coverage with an outperform rating. The last 7 analyst moves on BTU have been buys. No complaints, no change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click herehttp://tinyurl.com/yy2ysv

Earnings: Oct 19th .53 cents, up +26%

Position:
10/22/06 Jan-2009 $50 LEAP Call ZZT-AJ @ $8.70

No insurance put at this time.

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DVN - $72.07 -1.50 - Devon Energy

Devon was knocked for a loss on Friday after updating production estimates through 2009. They are discontinuing activity to produce gas in western Canada until conditions improve. The competitive battle for equipment, manpower, services and supplies has produced an environment that is highly inflationary and not conducive to profitability. The strength of the Canadian currency is also a challenge. Devon has elected to halt exploration activity until the situation improves. Demand for Canadian gas to fuel the tar sands conversion process is exceeding supplies.

Devon expects to produce 216 million BOE in 2006, 230-232 MBOE in 2007, 251-258 MBOE in 2008 and 270-285 MBOE in 2009. Estimated reserve additions for 2006 fell slightly to 420 MBOE from a prior range of 420-450 MBOE. This is still nearly double 2006 production! No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Nov 1st, $1.66, beat by +14 cents

LEAP Position:
10/03/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VVH-AN @ $9.00

Insurance put:
Buy Apr-2007 $60 Put DVN-PL only if DVN trades at $69 again.

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RIG - $80.00 +1.16 - Transocean Inc

RIG continued higher on no news but likely on the current consolidation talk in the sector. Friday was a new five month high. No change in play.

Their rig report released Dec-1st: http://tinyurl.com/y3shx7

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Nov 2nd, 83 cents, 12 cent beat

LEAP Position:
10/03/06 Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call VOI-AP @ $12.90

Insurance put:
Buy Jan $65 PUT RIG-ML only if RIG trades at $71.

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TSO - $70.68 -.81 - Tesoro Corporation

Another new three month high on Wednesday. No news and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Nov 2nd, $3.92, 66 cent beat

LEAP Position:
10/04/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call ZGC-AN @ $7.70

Insurance put:
Buy Feb $55 PUT TSO-NK only if TSO trades at $59

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APC - $48.97 +.07 - Anadarko Petroleum

Algeria maintained its target of 2 mbpd of production by 2010 although they are only capable of 1.5 mbpd at present. On Dec 1st Dow Jones reported that they were lowering the target to 1.6 mbpd but the energy minister repeated the 2.0 number several times on Friday. This is relative because APC is the largest independent company in Algeria. The royalty rules are changing in Algeria but to date the details have not been disclosed. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

No change in play.

Earnings: Nov 7th, +$1.75 vs +$1.12

LEAP Position:
9/20/06 Position: 2009 $50 LEAP Call OCP-AJ @ $6.90

Insurance put: 9/25
Position: Jan $40 PUT APC-MH @ $2.35, profit stop @ $35.00

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CEO $88.64 +1.12 - Cnooc Ltd

CEO continues to consolidate its gains from the prior week but came close to a new 3-month high on Friday. No news and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

No insurance put

Earnings: Oct-31st, $2.33B rev, +25%, no EPS given

Position: March $90 Call CEO-CS @ $2.40 (no leaps)

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SU $79.04 +2.39 - Suncor Energy

Suncor reported oil sands production for November averaged 257,000 bpd. YTD averages have been around 258,000 bpd. Suncor is targeting 255K-260K for all of 2006 and baring a complete shutdown that should be in the bag. Suncor is fighting resistance at $81 but we should be good for a =$5 pop once that level is broken. No news and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 26th, $1.48 vs $0.57 year ago qtr

LEAP Position: 9/11/06
Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call OYX-AP @ $14.30

Insurance put: 9/18
Position: Dec $60 Put SU-XL @ $2.10, no stop

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SLB $66.52 -1.82 Schlumberger

After breaking out to a new 7-month high last week SLB was due to attract a downgrade on valuation. Wachovia stepped up and made the call cutting SLB to market perform from buy. That was good for a four-day decline but no real damage. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 20th: 81 cents vs 44 in Y.A.Q.

LEAP Position:
1/2 9/11/06 @ $8.60
1/2 9/12/06 @ $8.00
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VWY-AN @ $8.30

Insurance Put: 9/18
Position: Jan $50 Put SLB-MJ @ $2.00, no stop

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NBR $33.12 -1.45 - Nabors Industries

Profit taking took the edge off Nabors but support at $33 held. No news and no change in play.

Link to recent presentation

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 25th, $1.02 vs 0.55 in YAQ

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 2009 $40 LEAP Call VRB-AH @ $4.50

No insurance

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UPL $52.05 -2.15 - Ultra Petroleum

The dip in gas prices knocked UPL back about $2 bucks but less than their gains the prior week. Colder weather is on the way, I hope. There is a new webcast from the AMEX conference last week. No change in play.

UPL said recently that their profit margins at $4 gas were +30%, $6 gas 50% and $8 gas 100%. They have a 16-year inventory of wells to be drilled.

AMEX Oil & Gas Conference Dec 5th
OGIS Investment Conference on Oct-4th
Enercom Oil and Gas presentation

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 31st, +33 cents

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call OZH-AL @ $10.60

Insurance Put:
9/18 Position: JAN $40 Put UPL-MH @ $2.85, no stop

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SUN $66.93 -2.05 - Sunoco

No news but SUN declined -$2 after setting a new 3 month high on Wednesday. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Nov 1st, $2.76 vs $2.39

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VUN-AN @ $13.50

Insurance Put:
Position: Jan $55 Put SUN-MK @ $2.40, no stop

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PXP $47.60 +.05 - Plains Exploration

PXP set another new historic high on Wednesday before sliding slightly on profit taking as the week ended. No news and no change in play.

OGIS Investment Conference on Oct-4th

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Nov 9th, +91 cents vs +37 cents

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $50 LEAP Call ZXL-AJ @ 7.50

Insurance Put:
9/25 Jan $40 Put PXP-MH @ $1.90, $35 stop

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FST $34.70 -.98 - Forest Oil

After cracking the $35 barrier the prior week FST fell victim to Friday's drop in oil prices. No news and no change in play.

Enercom conference presentation

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Nov-8th, +1.21 vs +0.05

LEAP Position: 9/12/06
Position: 2009 $40 LEAP Call OJG-AH @ 4.50

No insurance due to cheap LEAP

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XTO $49.11 -1.33 - XTO Energy

XTO paused like everyone else. Limited profit taking on Friday but the high ground held. No change in play.

OGIS conference presentation on Oct 4th
Enercom presentation

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 24th, $0.99 vs $0.85 in YAQ

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $50 LEAP Call OUO-AJ @ $6.50

Insurance Put:
Feb $35 Put XTO-NG @ $1.40, no stop

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VLO $54.91 -.94 - Valero Energy

Support at $55 is holding after a very strong prior week. No news and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 31st, +$2.42 vs $2.30

LEAP Position:
9/24/06 Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call VHB-AL @ $7.70

Insurance Put:
Position: 9/25 Jan $45 Put VLO-MI @ $2.25, no stop

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PBR - $98.22 +4.22 - Petroleo Brasileiro

Another amazing run by PBR tacking on another $4.22 stretching the gains for the last two weeks to $7.72. PBR announced on Thursday that it produced a record 484,000 bpd in November. This was an all time record by +31,000 bpd. PBR exported 14.52 mb in November. No change in the play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Nov 10th, +29%

LEAP Position:
9/08/06 Position: 2009 $100 LEAP Call VDW-AT @ $14.90

Insurance put:
9/11 January $70 PBR-MN @ $1.80, no stop

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DO - $81.10 +.51 - Diamond Offshore

DO set a new five-month high on Friday. There was no news but the trend on DO is still positive. Probably buying on expectations of that consolidation I mentioned earlier. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 27th. $1.19 vs $0.60 in YAQ

LEAP Position:
8/29/06 Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call VCT-AP @ 14.20
Cost reduction: Oct $70 Put profit -3.15, cost now $11.05

Insurance Put:
10/08 Dec $60 Put DO-XL @ $2.40, no stop

Position closed:
10/03 October $70 put DO-VN @ $1.65, exit @ $4.80, +3.15

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CSX - $36.77 +0.71 - CSX Corp ** Stop Loss $35 **

CSX must have heard we put a stop on the play. The railroad chugged to a new two months high at $37.89 on Tuesday before dropping back to resistance on rising oil prices. Maintain a stop at $35 and we will exit on any future weakness.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 17th, 54 cents, +50%

LEAP Position:
9/03/06 Position: 2009 $35 LEAP Call OBC-AG @ $4.90
11/17 Cost update - expired Nov $30 put +1.40 = $6.30

Insurance put:
9/11 November $30 Put CSX-WF @ $1.40, expired

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ATPG - $45.76 +.76 - ATP Oil and Gas Corp

No change in play. Consolidation of the $10 move continuing.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

OGIS Investment Conference on Oct 5th

Earnings schedule: N/A

LEAP Position:
8/20/06 Position: 2009 $40 LEAP Call VCL-AH @ $11.70

Insurance put:
9/06 Position Dec $35 PUT HKU-XG @ $1.50, stop at $30

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PTR - $129.77 +1.67 - Petrochina

Still holding the high ground PTR set a new historic high on Friday despite the drop in oil prices. I still believe this stock could be well over $150 before our 2008 LEAP comes due. No complaints and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Current recommendation: Buy under $110

Earnings: August 24th, $10.1 billion, +29%

LEAP Position:
5/14/06 Position: 2008 $120 LEAP Call LJC-AD @ $16.20
Cost adjustment: Close short Dec $115 call +1.30 = $17.50
Cost adjustment: Close long July $90 puts +3.00 = $20.50
Cost adjustment: Close long Sept $110 put -2.60 = $17.90

Insurance put: (9/11)
Position: December $100 Put PTR-XT @ $2.20, stop $90

Insurance put: (8/13)
Position closed:
Sept $110 Put PTR-UB @ $2.40, stop @ $106 @ $5.00, +2.60

Insurance combo: Closed
Short: Dec $115 Call PTR-LC @ $3.20, 6/13, exit $4.50, -1.30
Long: (2) July $90 Puts PTR-SR @ $3.70, 6/13, exit $0.70, -3.00

Insurance puts: (Closed 6/7)
Closed: June $105 PUT PTR-RA, @ $4.20 (5/22), exit 6/7 @ $4.30


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Non-Energy Positions
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PCU $55.83 + 1.65 - Southern Copper

Another nice gain and no change in trend despite nearing a historic high. PCU announced raised estimates for reserves and mine life at two of its mines in Peru. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Breakdown triggered at $51 on 11/14/06

Position: JUNE $55 Call PCU-FK @ $3.80
(no leaps)

Insurance Put:
PCU-XW Dec $47.50 put only if PCU trades at $49.50

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CAT - $63.38 +2.21 - Caterpillar ** Stop loss $58 **

CAT moved up strongly to a new two month high on Thursday. Not an oil stock but no complaints. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Position:
10/22/06 JAN-2009 $70 LEAP Call VKT-AN @ $7.20

Insurance Put: none

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TEX - $59.92 +3.94 - Terex Corp

TEX, recovered completely from the ISM dip and set another new high on Friday. It was also announced that South African diversified transport group Imperial Holdings had purchased Terex Africa for an undisclosed sum. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 25th, $0.98 vs $0.51 in YAQ

Position:
10/23/06 Jan-2009 $60 LEAP VXQ-AL @ $10.90

Insurance Put:
10/23/06 Jan-$50 PUT TEX-MI only is TEX trades at $54.

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DHI - $26.67 +.08 - DR Horton

DHI set a new six month high on Wednesday when all the builders were upgraded but lost ground on Friday when interest rates spiked. Now that everyone is recommending the builders they can get no respect. No complaints and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Nov 14th, 88 cents vs analysts est of 69 cents

LEAP Position:
9/24/06 Position: 2009 $25 LEAP Call VEI-AE @ $5.10

 

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