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The current format of the Play Updates has changed. Only the pertinent data that has changed from the prior week will be shown in an effort to concentrate more on new commentary on new plays rather than restating existing positions. Each play has a link back to either its last full commentary or its initial description.

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THE $38.96 +0.59 - TODCO

Todco continues to consolidate under resistance at $41. No change in play

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Breakdown target $39 hit 12/7/06

Position: 2009 $45 LEAP ZYU-AI @ $8.40

Insurance Put: None

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CHK $31.15 -0.93 - Chesapeake Energy

CHK slipped slightly lower on the drop in gas prices and the disaster at Encana. Strong support at $30. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Position: 2009 $35 LEAP VEC-AG currently $5.30

Insurance put: none

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LNG - $28.22 -2.48 - Cheniere Energy ** Stop Loss $27.00 **

Somebody is taking profits in LNG and we came very close to being stopped at $27 on Friday morning. There is no news and we are keeping the stop at $27.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Breakout target $31 triggered 11/30/06

Position 2009 $30 LEAP ONP-AF @ $8.50

Put insurance: None

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SNP - $85.56 +4.98 Sinopec

Absolutely amazing! Sinopec rallied back from the small dip on profit taking in the prior week to add nearly +$5 and close at a new historic high on Friday. I sure hope everyone bought a bunch of contracts when it was recommended. The position has more than doubled in three weeks. No change in play and let's hope there are no changes in performance.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Entry $74.44 11/28/06

Position: July $80 Call SNP-GP @ $5.40

No insurance

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FXI $101.00 +4.15 - FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund

Another nice rebound in FXI to a new historic high. No news.

The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index Fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index.

Component list

This iShare focuses on the largest companies in China (58% of it positions) and Hong Kong (42%). These are the most liquid companies in these markets. With Asia growing by leaps and bounds the FXI generated a +40% return in 2005 without using options. We hope to do better using LEAPs.

Breakout target: $94.50 hit 11/22/06 on gap open to $95.80

Position: 2009 $100 LEAP Call VHF-AT @ $13.50

No insurance

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MRO $95.50 +1.77 - Marathon Oil

After being downgraded by one analyst the prior week Marathon was upgraded or reiterated by several this week. Morgan Stanley said the major oils, including MRO, were undervalued by 8-10% at $60 oil and even more if oil continued to rise. MRO pulled back from a new historic high on Friday on post OPEC profit taking. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Position 2009 $100 LEAP Call VXM-AT @ $12.60

Insurance put: None

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HES - $52.25 +.34 - Hess Corporation (Formerly (AHC))

HES set a new four-month high on Thursday and gave back only 26 cents on Friday. It appears HES is consolidating for another sprint higher. No complaints and no change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Position:
11/05/06 2009 $50 LEAP Call VHS-AJ @ $6.80

No insurance due to cheap LEAP, strong support and positive trend.

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BHP - $40.38 -0.25 - BHP Billiton

BHP continues to hold just above support at $40 while the Phelps Dodge acquisition remains in focus. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Position:
10/29/06 2009 $40 LEAP Call ZPK-AH @ $11.10

Insurance Put:
11/12/06 Feb $40 Put BHP-NH @ $1.50

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BTU - $43.84 -3.82 - Peabody Energy

BTU slipped after selling $2.4 billion in convertible notes to fund its acquisition of Excel Coal in October. JP Morgan upgraded BTU to neutral from underweight after the company presold the bulk of its expected 2007 production for favorable prices. BTU is also delaying some announced enhancements to production to reduce supply and support prices. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 19th .53 cents, up +26%

Position:
10/22/06 Jan-2009 $50 LEAP Call ZZT-AJ @ $8.70

No insurance put at this time.

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DVN - $70.68 -1.39 - Devon Energy

Devon held its ground above support at $70 as it consolidates from the ratings changes in the prior week. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Nov 1st, $1.66, beat by +14 cents

LEAP Position:
10/03/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VVH-AN @ $9.00

Insurance put:
Buy Apr-2007 $60 Put DVN-PL only if DVN trades at $69 again.

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RIG - $83.46 +3.46 - Transocean Inc

RIG continued higher after Morgan Keegan upgraded RIG, DO and GSF to an outperform. Friday was a new five month high. No change in play.

Their rig report released Dec-1st

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Nov 2nd, 83 cents, 12 cent beat

LEAP Position:
10/03/06 Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call VOI-AP @ $12.90

Insurance put:
Buy Jan $65 PUT RIG-ML only if RIG trades at $71.

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TSO - $71.63 +.95 - Tesoro Corporation

Continued consolidation above support at $70. No news and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Nov 2nd, $3.92, 66 cent beat

LEAP Position:
10/04/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call ZGC-AN @ $7.70

Insurance put:
Buy Feb $55 PUT TSO-NK only if TSO trades at $59

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APC - $45.50 -3.47 - Anadarko Petroleum

APC took a hit on a downgrade from Goldman Sachs based on concerns about its ability to produce once the current divestiture plan is completed. APC announced plans to raise approx $6 billion by selling non core assets. The proceeds will be used to pay for the acquisition of Kerr McGee back in October. Those assets, which do not fit the current game plan are being liquidated. No complaints here.

Other analysts took a more positive view of Anadarko shares over the longer term. Merrill Lynch analyst John Herrlin Jr. upgraded Anadarko to "Buy" from "Neutral" on Monday, in part because of forecasts for higher oil prices. Rehan Rashid, an analyst with Friedman Billings Ramsey, rates the stock "Outperform," and Citigroup analyst Gil Yang and UBS analyst William A. Featherston rate it a "Buy."

No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

No change in play.

Earnings: Nov 7th, +$1.75 vs +$1.12

LEAP Position:
9/20/06 Position: 2009 $50 LEAP Call OCP-AJ @ $6.90

Insurance put: 9/25
Position: Jan $40 PUT APC-MH @ $2.35, profit stop @ $35.00

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CEO $89.85 +1.21 - Cnooc Ltd

CEO appears about ready to breakout of current resistance at $90 and head for new highs. On Tuesday CEO announced a new 8-year deal with Devon to explore the deep water in two ares of the Western South China Sea. Devon will cover exploration costs for a 49% share in the wells. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

No insurance put

Earnings: Oct-31st, $2.33B rev, +25%, no EPS given

Position: March $90 Call CEO-CS @ $2.40 (no leaps)

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SU $80.90 +1.65 - Suncor Energy

Suncor hit a new 3-month high on Thursday and gave back very little on the post OPEC profit taking. No news and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 26th, $1.48 vs $0.57 year ago qtr

LEAP Position: 9/11/06
Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call OYX-AP @ $14.30
Cost update: +2.10 to $16.40 for expiration Dec put

Insurance put: 9/18
Position: Dec $60 Put SU-XL @ $2.10, expired

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SLB $67.55 +1.03 Schlumberger

SLB recovered from a two-week slide and retested resistance at $69 on Friday. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Jan 19th

LEAP Position:
1/2 9/11/06 @ $8.60
1/2 9/12/06 @ $8.00
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VWY-AN @ $8.30

Insurance Put: 9/18
Position: Jan $50 Put SLB-MJ @ $2.00, no stop

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NBR $32.44 -.68 - Nabors Industries

Nabors is wandering and an upgrade to outperform by RBC Capital Markets failed to impress. No news and no change in play.

Link to recent presentation

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 25th, $1.02 vs 0.55 in YAQ

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 2009 $40 LEAP Call VRB-AH @ $4.50

No insurance

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UPL $50.47 -1.58 - Ultra Petroleum

Falling gas prices continue to pressure UPL even though their production is almost entirely hedged at much higher levels. There is a new webcast from the AMEX conference last week. No change in play.

UPL said recently that their profit margins at $4 gas were +30%, $6 gas 50% and $8 gas 100%. They have a 16-year inventory of wells to be drilled.

AMEX Oil & Gas Conference Dec 5th
OGIS Investment Conference on Oct-4th
Enercom Oil and Gas presentation

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 31st, +33 cents

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call OZH-AL @ $10.60

Insurance Put:
9/18 Position: JAN $40 Put UPL-MH @ $2.85, no stop

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SUN $68.26 +1.33 - Sunoco

SUN returned to pressure resistance at $69 after releasing guidance for 2007. Their capital budget will be $1 billion for refinery upgrades and expected net income to be around $850 million. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Nov 1st, $2.76 vs $2.39

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VUN-AN @ $13.50

Insurance Put:
Position: Jan $55 Put SUN-MK @ $2.40, no stop

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PXP $49.18 +1.58 - Plains Exploration

PXP set another new historic high on Thursday before sliding slightly on profit taking as the week ended. No news and no change in play.

OGIS Investment Conference on Oct-4th

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Nov 9th, +91 cents vs +37 cents

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $50 LEAP Call ZXL-AJ @ 7.50

Insurance Put:
9/25 Jan $40 Put PXP-MH @ $1.90, $35 stop

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FST $35.50 +.35 - Forest Oil

Forest is still fighting the $35 resistance but the trend is still positive. No news and no change in play.

Enercom conference presentation

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Nov-8th, +1.21 vs +0.05

LEAP Position: 9/12/06
Position: 2009 $40 LEAP Call OJG-AH @ 4.50

No insurance due to cheap LEAP

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XTO $49.88 +0.77 - XTO Energy

XTO tested its all time high again on Thursday. Limited profit taking on Friday but the high ground held. No change in play.

OGIS conference presentation on Oct 4th
Enercom presentation

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 24th, $0.99 vs $0.85 in YAQ

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $50 LEAP Call OUO-AJ @ $6.50

Insurance Put:
Feb $35 Put XTO-NG @ $1.40, no stop

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VLO $55.12 +.21 - Valero Energy

Support at $55 continues to hold after a very strong gain. No news and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 31st, +$2.42 vs $2.30

LEAP Position:
9/24/06 Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call VHB-AL @ $7.70

Insurance Put:
Position: 9/25 Jan $45 Put VLO-MI @ $2.25, no stop

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PBR - $97.64 -0.58 - Petroleo Brasileiro

After more than a $4 gain the prior week I will gladly accept a 58 cent drop. PBR continues to hold at a 7-month high. No change in the play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Nov 10th, +29%

LEAP Position:
9/08/06 Position: 2009 $100 LEAP Call VDW-AT @ $14.90

Insurance put:
9/11 January $70 PBR-MN @ $1.80, no stop

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DO - $81.10 +.51 - Diamond Offshore

DO set a new five-month high again on Friday. Morgan Keegan upgraded to an outperform. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 27th. $1.19 vs $0.60 in YAQ

LEAP Position:
8/29/06 Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call VCT-AP @ 14.20
Cost reduction: Oct $70 Put profit -3.15, cost now $11.05
Cost increase: Dec $60 put expired -2.40, cost now $13.45

Insurance Put:
10/08 Dec $60 Put DO-XL @ $2.40, expired

Position closed:
10/03 October $70 put DO-VN @ $1.65, exit @ $4.80, +3.15

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CSX - $35.43 -1.35 - CSX Corp ** Stopped $35 **

CSX triggered our stop at $35 after getting hit with an analyst downgrade from Bear Stearns to peer perform from outperform. With oil rising and transports falling it was time to exit anyway. At least it was a breakeven.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Oct 17th, 54 cents, +50%

LEAP Position:
9/03/06 Position: 2009 $35 LEAP Call OBC-AG @ $4.90
11/17 Cost update - expired Nov $30 put +1.40 = $6.30
12/13 Exit @ $6.50 when stop was hit.

Insurance put:
9/11 November $30 Put CSX-WF @ $1.40, expired

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ATPG - $45.15 -0.65 - ATP Oil and Gas Corp

No change in play. Consolidation of the $10 move continuing.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

OGIS Investment Conference on Oct 5th

Earnings schedule: N/A

LEAP Position:
8/20/06 Position: 2009 $40 LEAP Call VCL-AH @ $11.70
12/17/06 Cost update expired Dec 35 put -1.50 = $13.20

Insurance put:
9/06 Position Dec $35 PUT HKU-XG @ $1.50, expired

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PTR - $134.13 +4.36 - Petrochina

Still holding the high ground PTR set a new historic high on Friday despite the post OPEC profit taking. I still believe this stock could be well over $150 before our 2008 LEAP comes due. No complaints and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Current recommendation: Buy under $110

Earnings: August 24th, $10.1 billion, +29%

LEAP Position:
5/14/06 Position: 2008 $120 LEAP Call LJC-AD @ $16.20
Cost adjustment: Close short Dec $115 call +1.30 = $17.50
Cost adjustment: Close long July $90 puts +3.00 = $20.50
Cost adjustment: Close long Sept $110 put -2.60 = $17.90
Cost adjustment: Expired Dec $100 put -2.20 = $20.00

Insurance put: (9/11)
Position: December $100 Put PTR-XT @ $2.20, expired

Insurance put: (8/13)
Position closed:
Sept $110 Put PTR-UB @ $2.40, stop @ $106 @ $5.00, +2.60

Insurance combo: Closed
Short: Dec $115 Call PTR-LC @ $3.20, 6/13, exit $4.50, -1.30
Long: (2) July $90 Puts PTR-SR @ $3.70, 6/13, exit $0.70, -3.00

Insurance puts: (Closed 6/7)
Closed: June $105 PUT PTR-RA, @ $4.20 (5/22), exit 6/7 @ $4.30


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Non-Energy Positions
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PCU $57.58 +1.75 - Southern Copper

Another nice gain and no change in trend despite nearing a historic high. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Breakdown triggered at $51 on 11/14/06

Position: JUNE $55 Call PCU-FK @ $3.80
(no leaps)

Insurance Put:
PCU-XW Dec $47.50 put only if PCU trades at $49.50

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CAT - $61.82 -1.58 - Caterpillar ** Stop loss $58 **

The warning from several toolmakers weighed on CAT even though they are not directly related. If CAT does not regain a positive trend soon I may grow tired of waiting. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Position:
10/22/06 JAN-2009 $70 LEAP Call VKT-AN @ $7.20

Insurance Put: none

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TEX - $61.35 +1.43 - Terex Corp

TEX was knocked lower by the tool warnings on Friday but was added to the S&P-500 after the close sending the stock to a new high in after hours trading. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Oct 25th, $0.98 vs $0.51 in YAQ

Position:
10/23/06 Jan-2009 $60 LEAP VXQ-AL @ $10.90

Insurance Put:
10/23/06 Jan-$50 PUT TEX-MI only is TEX trades at $54.

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DHI - $27.12 +.45 - DR Horton

DHI continues to hold near its new six-month high. We will get new home sales data next week so it could be volatile. No complaints and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Nov 14th, 88 cents vs analysts est of 69 cents

LEAP Position:
9/24/06 Position: 2009 $25 LEAP Call VEI-AE @ $5.10

Insurance put: None
 

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