Option Investor
Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version

The current format of the Play Updates has changed. Only the pertinent data that has changed from the prior week will be shown in an effort to concentrate more on new commentary on new plays rather than restating existing positions. Each play has a link back to either its last full commentary or its initial description.

***********************

CCJ - $36.86 -0.40 - Cameco

No news and no change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Breakout trigger: $37.50 Hit March 7th

Position: JAN-09 $40 LEAP Call ZBK-AH @ $7.80

*********************

PTR - $110.31 -3.63 - Petrochina

A drop in gasoline prices in Beijing was credited with cutting stock prices on PTR and SNP. There was no other news

Cost reduction play:

Our short put was triggered on Tuesday when PTR hit $110 on the dip. The premium received was $3.40. Maintain a stop loss on this short put at $100.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Breakdown targets:
$110 1/2 position - hit Mar-5th
$105 1/2 position - not yet triggered

Position: JAN-09 $120 LEAP Call ZJK-AD @ $10.70

Cost reduction play:
Position: Short June $105 Put PTR-RA @ $3.40, stop $100

*****************************

SNP - $75.37 -3.08 - Sinopec

The Beijing gasoline war which took from .04 to .08 yuan off the price of a liter of fuel was blamed from the decline in the stock price. Sinopec also announced it had raised output at one of its new refineries to a record 200,000 bpd in March. This refinery is going to be moved even higher to 243,000 bpd by April.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Breakdown target $82.50 hit on 2/27

Position: OCT $85 Call SNP-JQ @ $7.00

*********************

THE $32.78 -.93 - TODCO ** Stop Loss $32.00 **

No news and no change in play. However I am raising the stop to $32.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings: March 1st, $1.11 vs .34 cents in comparison quarter

Current recommendation: Hold

Breakdown target $39 hit 12/7/06

Position: 2009 $45 LEAP ZYU-AI @ $8.40

Insurance Put: None

**********************

CHK $29.57 -.56 - Chesapeake Energy ** Stop loss $28.50 **

CEO Aubrey McClendon continues to buy shares. He has upped his position by purchasing 5.7 million shares on the open market for a total cost of $165 million over the last 18 months. This brings his total stake to 27 million shares. Reserves increased from 7.5 tcfe to 9.0 tcfe in 2006. As long as reserves continue to grow and McClendon continues to buy shares we should be comfortable waiting for the market to catch on. No news and no change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Feb-23rd, 90 cents vs est 76 cents.

Current recommendation: Hold

Position: 2009 $35 LEAP VEC-AG @ $5.30

Insurance put: none

************************

MRO $93.29 -1.44 - Marathon Oil

Marathon gave back -1.44 of the 5.44 it gained in the prior week so we have no challenge with the profit taking. MRO is still holding just below its two month high at $95. Marathon also signed a letter of intent with Noble Drilling to lease its newest rig the Noble Jim Davis when construction is completed sometime in 2009. The contract will give Noble approximately $377 million in revenues over a two-year period. Marathon is expected to use the deepwater rig in the Gulf of Mexico. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Feb-1st 3.06 vs 3.43 (Q4/05) $1.08 billion profit

Current recommendation: Buy at $85

Position 2009 $100 LEAP Call VXM-AT @ $12.60
Cost update: Expired March put +65 cents to $13.25

Insurance put: 2/18/07
Position: March $85 PUT MRO-OQ @ 65 cents. expired

*******************

HES - $50.45 -2.35 - Hess Corporation
(Formerly (AHC))

Somebody started dumping HES late Thursday afternoon and kept the pressure up into Friday's close. Support at $50 should hold. We have a May $50 insurance put. No news and no change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Jan 31st, $1.13, vs $1.44 in Q4/05, 230% replacement

Current recommendation: Buy at $47

Position:
11/05/06 2009 $50 LEAP Call VHS-AJ @ $6.80
Cost adjustment put exit +1.60, cost = $8.40

Insurance Put: Triggered Jan-3rd @ $49
01/03/07 May $45 put HES-QI @ $2.60, exit 1/26 $1.00

Insurance Put: 2/26/07
MAY $50 PUT IGG-QJ @ $1.35, profit stop $46

************************

BTU - $37.95 -.90 - Peabody Energy

No movement and no news. Several analysts have been recommending BTU at what they are calling as a depressed level.

SELL JAN-08 $30 PUT LLW-MF is BTU touches $35

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Jan-25th +42% including special items.

Current recommendation: Buy at $35

Position:
10/22/06 Jan-2009 $50 LEAP Call ZZT-AJ @ $8.70
02/05/07 March put stopped -$1.00, cost = $9.70

Insurance put: Triggered with drop through $39
01/03/07 March $35 Put BTU-OG at $1.15, stopped @ $42.50

*******************

SLB $64.48 -0.62 Schlumberger

SLB continues to hold near the top of its range on no news. No change in play.


SELL JAN $55 PUT WUB-MK on a touch of $60 by SLB

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Jan 19th, +71% to $1.13 billion

Current recommendation: Buy at $60, stop at $55

LEAP Position:
1/2 9/11/06 @ $8.60
1/2 9/12/06 @ $8.00
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VWY-AN @ $8.30
Cost update for expired Jan put +2.00 = $10.30

Insurance Put: 9/18
Position: Jan $50 Put SLB-MJ @ $2.00, expired

*******************

SUN $65.90 +0.53 - Sunoco

Still holding at the high end of its recent range on no news. No change in play.

SELL JAN $55 PUT WUD-MK on a touch of $60 by SUN

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Jan-31st, -57% $1.00 vs $.96 analyst est.

Current recommendation: Buy at $60, stop at $54

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VUN-AN @ $13.50
Cost update expired Jan put +2.40 = $15.90

Insurance Put:
Position: Jan $55 Put SUN-MK @ $2.40, expired

********************

VLO $60.01 -.22 - Valero Energy

Valero is holding at its six-month highs and only gave back 22 cents of its multi dollar gain last week. With falling oil prices and rising gasoline prices Valero should be printing money. No news of note and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Feb-1stbr>
Current recommendation: Buy at $50, stop at $45

LEAP Position:
9/24/06 Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call VHB-AL @ $7.70
Cost update expired Jan put +2.25 = $9.95

Insurance Put:
PPosition: 9/25 Jan $45 Put VLO-MI @ $2.25, expired

*******************

DO - $76.12 -.54 - Diamond Offshore ** New Stop $73.00 **

No news and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Feb-8thbr>
Current recommendation: Buy at $75, stop at $69

LEAP Position:
8/29/06 Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call VCT-AP @ 14.20
Cost reduction: Oct $70 Put profit -3.15, cost now $11.05
Cost increase: Dec $60 put expired -2.40, cost now $13.45

Insurance Put:
10/08 Dec $60 Put DO-XL @ $2.40, expired

Position closed:
110/03 October $70 put DO-VN @ $1.65, exit @ $4.80, +3.15

****************************
Non-Energy Positions
****************************

Leaps Trader Update Archives