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Play Updates

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The current format of the Play Updates has changed. Only the pertinent data that has changed from the prior week will be shown in an effort to concentrate more on new commentary on new plays rather than restating existing positions. Each play has a link back to either its last full commentary or its initial description.

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BHP - $48.45 +1.20 - BHP Billiton

Only 30 cents off a ten-month high on no news. All we need is one more round of metals gains and we should be off to the races on short covering.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Breakout target $43.50 hit March 12th

Position: JAN-09 $50 LEAP Call ZPK-AJ @ $6.00

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CCJ - $40.94 +0.86 - Cameco

No news but we got a new three-month high at Friday's close. Strong resistance from here to $42 but uranium prices are still climbing.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Breakout trigger: $37.50 Hit March 7th

Position: JAN-09 $40 LEAP Call ZBK-AH @ $7.80

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PTR - $117.09 +4.69 - Petrochina

PetroChina said it made the biggest discovery in a decade in the Bohai Bay area with oil in place of as much as 2.2 billion bbls. Recoverable would be something in the 700 million barrel range and it is light crude. This could add 20% to the total reserves for PTR. The news sent PTR to a new 6-week high. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Breakdown targets:
$110 1/2 position - hit Mar-5th
$105 1/2 position - not yet triggered

Position: JAN-09 $120 LEAP Call ZJK-AD @ $10.70

Cost reduction play:
Position: Short June $105 Put PTR-RA @ $3.40, stop $100

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SNP - $84.48 +1.29 - Sinopec

After last weeks +$7 gain any gain this week would have been outstanding. We saw a new six-week high on Thursday on news that Exxon and Saudi Aramco had partnered with SNP to build a major refinery in China. The cost to Saudi Aramco and Exxon rose to $5 billion in the latest announcement and well over the $3.5 billion estimate when the deal was first discussed in 2005. Part of the increase was to add 750 filling stations and a network of terminals. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Breakdown target $82.50 hit on 2/27

Position: OCT $85 Call SNP-JQ @ $7.00

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CHK $30.88 +.12 - Chesapeake Energy ** Stop loss $28.50 **

CEO McClendon bought another $6.4 million in stock last week and raised his stake to about 5.9%. He also hold options for another 500,000 shares. McClendon founded the company in 1989 and grew it into one of the world's largest gas producers. It appears he wished he had it back in private hands again. He has spent $226 million to buy CHK stock over the last 30 months. McClendon also sold 1300 short puts obligating him to buy another 130,000 shares at $27.50 if the price falls. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Feb-23rd, 90 cents vs est 76 cents.

Current recommendation: Hold

Position: 2009 $35 LEAP VEC-AG @ $5.30

Insurance put: none

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MRO $98.83 -2.29 - Marathon Oil

Profit taking hit MRO on Friday giving us a loss for the week but still a strong gain after the $7 rise last week. No news and no change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Feb-1st 3.06 vs 3.43 (Q4/05) $1.08 billion profit

Current recommendation: Buy at $85

Position 2009 $100 LEAP Call VXM-AT @ $12.60
Cost update: Expired March put +65 cents to $13.25

Insurance put: 2/18/07
Position: March $85 PUT MRO-OQ @ 65 cents. expired

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HES - $55.47 -.51 - Hess Corporation
(Formerly (AHC))

Hess hit a rough spot on Friday after setting a new 52-week high on Thursday. It was simple profit taking after a $5 gain last week. Hess set an earnings date of April 25th. Definitely no complaints and no change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: April 25th

Earnings: Jan 31st, $1.13, vs $1.44 in Q4/05, 230% replacement

Current recommendation: Buy at $47

Position:
11/05/06 2009 $50 LEAP Call VHS-AJ @ $6.80
Cost adjustment put exit +1.60, cost = $8.40

Insurance Put: Triggered Jan-3rd @ $49
01/03/07 May $45 put HES-QI @ $2.60, exit 1/26 $1.00

Insurance Put: 2/26/07
MAY $50 PUT IGG-QJ @ $1.35, profit stop $46


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BTU - $40.24 -0.60 - Peabody Energy

Minor profit taking after strong gains in the prior week. Merrill said coal prices were poised to rise with Japan and China competing for available supplies. Japan wants to pay $60 a ton but China consumers are willing to pay up to $80. This has Japan out shopping for supplies. No other news.

SELL JAN-08 $30 PUT LLW-MF is BTU touches $35

To see the initial commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Jan-25th +42% including special items.

Current recommendation: Buy at $35

Position:
10/22/06 Jan-2009 $50 LEAP Call ZZT-AJ @ $8.70
02/05/07 March put stopped -$1.00, cost = $9.70

Insurance put: Triggered with drop through $39
01/03/07 March $35 Put BTU-OG at $1.15, stopped @ $42.50

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SLB $69.10 +0.00 Schlumberger

SLB finished dead even for the week after hitting a new 52-week high on Thursday. SLB set its earnings report for April 20th. No change in play.

SELL JAN $55 PUT WUB-MK on a touch of $60 by SLB

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: April 20th.

Earnings: Jan 19th, +71% to $1.13 billion

Current recommendation: Buy at $60, stop at $55

LEAP Position:
1/2 9/11/06 @ $8.60
1/2 9/12/06 @ $8.00
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VWY-AN @ $8.30
Cost update for expired Jan put +2.00 = $10.30

Insurance Put: 9/18
Position: Jan $50 Put SLB-MJ @ $2.00, expired

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SUN $70.44 -0.72 - Sunoco

SUN hit a new six-month high on Friday as takeover talk moved through the market. Call options saw more than 27,000 contacts trade on Friday compared to 3842 puts. This is far in excess of the normal 4000 contracts.

SELL JAN $55 PUT WUD-MK on a touch of $60 by SUN

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Jan-31st, -57% $1.00 vs $.96 analyst est.

Current recommendation: Buy at $60, stop at $54

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VUN-AN @ $13.50
Cost update expired Jan put +2.40 = $15.90

Insurance Put:
Position: Jan $55 Put SUN-MK @ $2.40, expired

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VLO $64.49 +0.84 - Valero Energy

Valero hit a new 7-month high again on Friday and there is no change in sight. Refiners are printing money on the rising price of gasoline and that is not expected to change. $3 gas this summer will mean golden profits for Valero. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings: Feb-1st

Current recommendation: Buy at $50, stop at $45

LEAP Position:
9/24/06 Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call VHB-AL @ $7.70
Cost update expired Jan put +2.25 = $9.95

Insurance Put:
Position: 9/25 Jan $45 Put VLO-MI @ $2.25, expired

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DO - $80.95 -0.45 - Diamond Offshore ** Stop $73.00 **

Almost no change in DO and it continues to hold near its two-month highs at $82.50. No news and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here

Earnings schedule: Feb-8th

Current recommendation: Buy at $75, stop at $69

LEAP Position:
8/29/06 Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call VCT-AP @ 14.20
Cost reduction: Oct $70 Put profit -3.15, cost now $11.05
Cost increase: Dec $60 put expired -2.40, cost now $13.45

Insurance Put:
10/08 Dec $60 Put DO-XL @ $2.40, expired

Position closed:
10/03 October $70 put DO-VN @ $1.65, exit @ $4.80, +3.15


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Non-Energy Positions
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