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BHP - $49.48 +1.03 - BHP Billiton

BHP is knocking on the door at $50 and the continued rise in metals prices should keep pushing the price of BHP higher. No chance in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here:
http://tinyurl.com/ynm9qj

Breakout target $43.50 hit March 12th

Position: JAN-09 $50 LEAP Call ZPK-AJ @ $6.00

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CCJ - $46.15 +5.21 - Cameco

Cameco posted an update on its website regarding the Cigar Lake mine and it appears recovery efforts are preceding quickly. The Cigar Lake deposit is the second largest high grade deposit ever discovered. Cameco also announced that it would post a proxy statement on the site on April 10th for the upcoming special meeting of shareholders. Some feel that could include a new stock split. CCJ killed its shares back in 2005/2006 with a 3:1 split followed closely by a 2:1 split. That produced so many shares that forward progress was nearly impossible until everyone had finished rearranging their portfolios. Many funds have share limits and continued splitting forces these fund to sell shares putting pressure on the stock. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here:
http://tinyurl.com/2qexex

Breakout trigger: $37.50 Hit March 7th

Position: JAN-09 $40 LEAP Call ZBK-AH @ $7.80


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PTR - $118.11 +1.02 - Petrochina

PetroChina is struggling with resistance at $120. The short June put from early March is going well. Currently it is valued at $1.15 and we sold it for $3.40. I considered closing it to reduce risk but I don't see PTR giving up $13. If we can close for 50-75 cents I would take it and we should have our chance over the next couple weeks. No news and no change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here:
http://tinyurl.com/2qexex

Breakdown targets:
$110 1/2 position - hit Mar-5th
$105 1/2 position - not yet triggered

Position: JAN-09 $120 LEAP Call ZJK-AD @ $10.70

Cost reduction play:
Position: Short June $105 Put PTR-RA @ $3.40, stop $100

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SNP - $88.07 +3.59 - Sinopec

Lots of news on Sinopec but none of it directly related to the parent. SNP has eased over resistance at $87 but only barely. One more decent spike and we should see a sharp climb begin once that resistance is cleared. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here:
http://tinyurl.com/348yw8

Breakdown target $82.50 hit on 2/27

Position: OCT $85 Call SNP-JQ @ $7.00


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CHK $32.51 +1.63 - Chesapeake Energy ** Stop loss $30.50 **

Chesapeake soared to another three month high on Friday and no weakness in sight. CHK won the Motley Fool march madness bracket beating out companies like MO, AAPL and other companies in its field. CHK sells for $.60 on the dollar of intrinsic value and holds 9 tcf of proven reserves and 18 tcf of probable reserves. Its current drilling program is attempting to monetize those reserves by converting them into proven assets. The founder/CEO continues to buy stock as though he was determined to take it back private. No change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here:
http://tinyurl.com/y3njpt

Earnings: Feb-23rd, 90 cents vs est 76 cents.

Current recommendation: Hold

Position: 2009 $35 LEAP VEC-AG @ $5.30

Insurance put: none


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MRO $102.79 +3.96 - Marathon Oil

MRO is VERY close to breaking out to a new historic high over $103.47. Refining is a good business today and Marathon is riding the wave. No news and no change in play.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here:
http://tinyurl.com/y6qmvz

Earnings: Feb-1st 3.06 vs 3.43 (Q4/05) $1.08 billion profit

Current recommendation: Buy at $85

Position 2009 $100 LEAP Call VXM-AT @ $12.60
Cost update: Expired March put +65 cents to $13.25

Insurance put: 2/18/07
Position: March $85 PUT MRO-OQ @ 65 cents. expired


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HES - $56.29 +.82 - Hess Corporation
(Formerly (AHC))

Hess is consolidating its recent gains and remains close to its historic high at $58. No news. I considered closing the insurance put but for 30 cents I would rather have the insurance for another 6 weeks at $50.

To see the initial commentary on this position click here:
http://tinyurl.com/ycoh2o

Earnings schedule: April 25th

Earnings: Jan 31st, $1.13, vs $1.44 in Q4/05, 230% replacement

Current recommendation: Buy at $47

Position:
11/05/06 2009 $50 LEAP Call VHS-AJ @ $6.80
Cost adjustment put exit +1.60, cost = $8.40

Insurance Put: Triggered Jan-3rd @ $49
01/03/07 May $45 put HES-QI @ $2.60, exit 1/26 $1.00

Insurance Put: 2/26/07
MAY $50 PUT IGG-QJ @ $1.35, profit stop $46


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BTU - $43.74 +3.50 - Peabody Energy

The winter storm in Wyoming may have helped the coal companies more than hurt them. The storm prevented more than 200 trains from being loaded and rail companies say it could take two weeks before conditions return to normal. The short-term drop in coal shipments caused a draw down in inventory levels at power plants serviced by the Powder River Basin. This could help ease some oversupply that has been plaguing coal companies since the record warm winter in 2005. No other news.

SELL JAN-08 $30 PUT LLW-MF is BTU touches $35

To see the initial commentary on this position click here:
http://tinyurl.com/yy2ysv

Earnings: Jan-25th +42% including special items.

Current recommendation: Buy at $37.50

Position:
10/22/06 Jan-2009 $50 LEAP Call ZZT-AJ @ $8.70
02/05/07 March put stopped -$1.00, cost = $9.70

Insurance put: Triggered with drop through $39
01/03/07 March $35 Put BTU-OG at $1.15, stopped @ $42.50


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SLB $71.84 +2.74 Schlumberger

SLB finally broke free of gravity and resistance at $69. Friday's close was a new 10-month high and $75 will be a new historic high. SLB warned against a mini-tender offer by TRC Capital who offered to buy up to 1.5 million shares at $67.75. That was -5% below the current price when the offer was made. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here:
http://tinyurl.com/yest3l

Earnings schedule: April 20th.

Earnings: Jan 19th, +71% to $1.13 billion

Current recommendation: Buy at $60, stop at $55

LEAP Position:
1/2 9/11/06 @ $8.60
1/2 9/12/06 @ $8.00
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VWY-AN @ $8.30
Cost update for expired Jan put +2.00 = $10.30

Insurance Put: 9/18
Position: Jan $50 Put SLB-MJ @ $2.00, expired

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SUN $74.17 +3.73 - Sunoco

SUN continued to move higher and the option activity from the prior week as abated. Evidently there was no takeover offer coming as many had expected. An upgrade for the sector on Thursday provided another spike. No news.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here:
http://tinyurl.com/yest3l

Earnings schedule: May 3rd

Earnings: Jan-31st, -57% $1.00 vs $.96 analyst est.

Current recommendation: Buy at $60, stop at $54

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VUN-AN @ $13.50
Cost update expired Jan put +2.40 = $15.90

Insurance Put:
Position: Jan $55 Put SUN-MK @ $2.40, expired

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VLO $66.01 +1.52 - Valero Energy

Valero hit a new 7-month high again on Friday although it had a tame week relative to some other refiners. Given its $20 rise in the last three months it needed some consolidation time. Part of the problem was news that some Valero gas stations were experiencing gas shortages due to the temporary shutdown of the Texas panhandle refinery. No change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here:
http://tinyurl.com/yest3l

Earnings schedule: April 24th

Current recommendation: Buy at $50, stop at $45

LEAP Position:
9/24/06 Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call VHB-AL @ $7.70
Cost update expired Jan put +2.25 = $9.95

Insurance Put:
Position: 9/25 Jan $45 Put VLO-MI @ $2.25, expired


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DO - $82.30 +1.35 - Diamond Offshore ** Stop $73.00 **

DO is creeping upward with resistance at $82.50 and it appears a breakout is imminent. A move over $85 should produce some real speed. No news and no change in play.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here:
http://tinyurl.com/yest3l

Earnings schedule: Feb-8th

Current recommendation: Buy at $75, stop at $69

LEAP Position:
8/29/06 Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call VCT-AP @ 14.20
Cost reduction: Oct $70 Put profit -3.15, cost now $11.05
Cost increase: Dec $60 put expired -2.40, cost now $13.45

Insurance Put:
10/08 Dec $60 Put DO-XL @ $2.40, expired

Position closed:
10/03 October $70 put DO-VN @ $1.65, exit @ $4.80, +3.15

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Non-Energy Positions
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BZH - $28.64 -0.39 - Beazer Homes ** LEAP PUT **

Beazer is being flooded with suits, some seeking class action status on charges it practiced predatory lending, filed illegal loan documents and manipulated its stock price. These types of suits appear whenever bad news appears about a company but in this case it looks grim.

To see the last full commentary on this position click here:
http://tinyurl.com/3ymlw5

Position: Jan-08 $25 PUT WZF-ME @ $3.10

No stop loss
 

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