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TSO - $116.96 -2.21 - Tesoro

TSO pulled back slightly from last week but what you don't see is the spike on Monday that nearly hit $126. Friday's close was -$10 from that level. The spike came from pre earnings excitement and the crash from an earnings miss. TSO reported earnings that more than double to $1.67 per share from 61 cents in the comparison quarter. Analysts were looking for $1.84. TSO said the earnings shortfall was related to maintenance outages at the Golden Eagle and Salt Lake City refineries. They also announced a 2:1 split and doubled the quarterly cash dividend. The record date for the split is May-14th with a pay date of May-29th.

For initial commentary see April 29th newsletter.

Earnings: May 3rd, $1.67 vs 61 cents in comparison qtr

Breakout target: $110 hit 10:AM on 4/23/07
Position: 2009 $120 LEAP Call ZGC-AD @ $16.68

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ATW $67.29 +2.98 - Atwood Oceanics

Atwood continues higher on no news. Analyst Waqar Syed with Tristone recommended ATW as his top pick saying earnings should grow +84% this year and next. No complaints here.

Interesting article in Investors Business Daily regarding Atwood.

For initial commentary see April 29th newsletter.

Earnings schedule: May 8th est $1.08

Breakout trigger $60.50 hit 4/23/07
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call ZFJ-AN @ $6.50

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TS - $47.52 +.37 - Tenaris ** Stop Loss $45.50 **

Tenaris reported earnings after the close on Friday that rose +14%. Revenue was below analysts estimates and Tenaris said a slowdown in Canadian drilling and imports from China were to blame. Tenaris bought Maverick Tube for $3.19 billion and Texas based Hydril (HYDL) for $2.16 billion in 2006. The Maverick acquisition has closed and Hydril will close on Monday. Both are seen as significant additional sources of revenue for 2007 and beyond. Tenaris reported after the bell on Friday and fell -$3 in after hours trading on extremely low volume. Resistance at $48 is still holding firm. If TS opens down on Monday at the $44 level where trading ended on Friday it will stop us out of the position. I would suggest removing the stop until after the open to see if we get a rebound. Leaving the stop in place at the open will almost guarantee being filled at the low of the day.

For initial commentary see April 14th newsletter.

Earnings: May 4th 41 cents

No LEAPS

Position: Sept $50 Call TSW-IJ @ $3.80 Stop TS @ $45.50

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BHP - $51.63 +2.71 - BHP Billiton

BHP rose on a bounce in metals prices and on a Merrill Lynch note that speculated BHP could be a profitable takeover target. With a market cap of $120 billion Merrill said it would be a tough deal to structure but an LBO could derive a 30% internal rate of return or better if they decided to try it. Merrill speculated BHP could be acquired and the individual parts sold for a substantial profit. This sent both BHP and RTP higher on Friday. Separately JP Morgan said if metals prices held at existing levels for another two years BHP would be lifted by an additional 30%. No earnings date announced.

For initial commentary see March 17th newsletter.

Earnings schedule: No date announced.

Breakout target $43.50 hit March 12th

Position: JAN-09 $50 LEAP Call ZPK-AJ @ $6.00

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CCJ - $50.35 +4.10 - Cameco

CCJ continues to sprint to new highs on no news. It is likely the talk about the coming uranium futures contract on Monday is providing the focus for retail traders. CCJ has guided to significantly higher profits for all of 2007 and beyond and investors are hoping the stock remains radioactive. No change in play.

There has not been a weekly drop in uranium prices since 2003. The NYMEX announced it would begin trading a uranium commodity contract on May 7th. The contract would cover 250 pounds of uranium. The symbol will be UX plus the month codes.

Worldwide there are 28 new reactors being built, 64 on the drawing boards and 158 in the proposal stages. If all were built it would be a 57% increase from the 435 reactors now in operation. In 2006 the world consumed 180 million pounds of uranium but produced only 100 million pounds. The rest came from Russian nuclear warheads being decommissioned. The supply from those warheads is dwindling and will be completely gone by 2015.

For initial commentary see March 10th newsletter.

Earnings: Apr-27th, -47% due to revenue timing

Breakout trigger: $37.50 Hit March 7th

Position: JAN-09 $40 LEAP Call ZBK-AH @ $7.80

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PTR - $125.92 +10.94 - Petrochina

PTR announced a multi billion barrel oil find in the Bohai Bay area of the China Sea. This monster discovery in shallow water just off the coast near Beijing is liquid gold to PTR. It will be easy to produce and very near where demand is greatest. PTR spiked to nearly $130 before cooler heads prevailed and it declined to $125. Still a nice gain for the week and it is not likely to give much back. No change in play.

For initial commentary see March 10th newsletter.

Breakdown target:
$110 1/2 position - hit Mar-5th

Position: JAN-09 $120 LEAP Call ZJK-AD @ $10.70
Cost reduction 4/19 $10.70 -2.25 = $8.45

Cost reduction play:
Position: stopped @ $114 4/19
Short June $105 Put PTR-RA @ $3.40, exit $1.15. +2.25

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SNP - $89.99 +0.73 - Sinopec

Sinopec recovered from an early week dip on no news. Resistance appears to be $91 and then $95. No change in play.

For initial commentary see March 3rd newsletter.

Breakdown target $82.50 hit on 2/27

Position: OCT $85 Call SNP-JQ @ $7.00

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CHK $35.54 +1.87 - Chesapeake Energy ** Stop loss $32.00 **

CHK had plenty of news last week plus earnings that came in less than expected due to a paper loss from a mark-to-market charge for hedging strategies. On an operating basis earnings were 87 cents compared to estimates for 78 cents. I raised the stop loss to $32 in case the current euphoria fades.

For initial commentary see Dec-9th newsletter.

Earnings: May 4th, 87 cents vs est of 78 cents

Current recommendation: Hold

Position: 2009 $35 LEAP VEC-AG @ $5.30

Insurance put:
Oct $30 Put CHK-VF @ 90 cents. Profit stop $28

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MRO $104.41 +1.61 - Marathon Oil

MRO reported earnings of $2.07 down from $2.13 in the comparison quarter. On an operating basis earnings were $2.04 compared to analyst estimates of $1.93. Oil production fell to 339,000 bpd from 377,000 bpd in 2006. Refinery output increased to 968,000 bpd from 898,000 bpd in 2006. Lower prices for oil were blamed for keeping profits from growing even more. The earnings were good enough to push MRO to a new high! No change in play.

For initial commentary see Nov-18th newsletter.

Earnings: May 1st, $2.04 vs est $1.93

2:1 Stock Split June 18th, record date May 23rd

Current recommendation: Buy at $85

Position 2009 $100 LEAP Call VXM-AT @ $12.60
Cost update: Expired March put +65 cents to $13.25

Insurance put: 2/18/07
Position: March $85 PUT MRO-OQ @ 65 cents. expired

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HES - $58.18 +1.16 - Hess Corporation
(Formerly (AHC))

Hess recovered from its post earnings slump and returned to test the historic high from the prior week. No news and no change in play.

For initial commentary see Nov-4th newsletter.

Earnings: Apr-25th, $1.17 vs $2.22

Current recommendation: Buy at $47

Position:
11/05/06 2009 $50 LEAP Call VHS-AJ @ $6.80
Cost adjustment put exit +1.60, cost = $8.40

Insurance Put: Triggered Jan-3rd @ $49
01/03/07 May $45 put HES-QI @ $2.60, exit 1/26 $1.00

Insurance Put: 2/26/07
MAY $50 PUT IGG-QJ @ $1.35, profit stop $46
May $55 Put IGG-QK @ 80 cents. Profit Target $51

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BTU - $48.91 -.01 - Peabody Energy

BTU continues to knock on the resistance door at $50 but nobody is answering. Coal has been getting a lot of positive press recently and BTU is the granddaddy of them all. No news and no change in play.

For initial commentary see Oct-22nd newsletter.

Earnings schedule: April 19th, -32% on special items

Current recommendation: Buy at $37.50

Position:
10/22/06 Jan-2009 $50 LEAP Call ZZT-AJ @ $8.70
02/05/07 March put stopped -$1.00, cost = $9.70

Insurance put: Triggered with drop through $39
01/03/07 March $35 Put BTU-OG at $1.15, stopped @ $42.50

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SLB $74.61 -1.03 Schlumberger

No news and no movement but SLB continues to hold near its historic highs set back on April 17th. We are just waiting on some new event to produce a new trend. I am adding an insurance put just in case the slowdown in drilling impacts SLB.

Insurance put:
BUY June $70 PUT SLB-RN currently $1.15

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings: April 20th, 96 cents vs est of 91 cents

Current recommendation: Buy at $60, stop at $55

LEAP Position:
1/2 9/11/06 @ $8.60
1/2 9/12/06 @ $8.00
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VWY-AN @ $8.30
Cost update for expired Jan put +2.00 = $10.30

Insurance Put: 9/18
Position: Jan $50 Put SLB-MJ @ $2.00, expired

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SUN $76.12 -0.67 - Sunoco

SUN held up extremely well after missing earnings on Wednesday. The miss was due to some major maintenance work on the Philadelphia refinery, which impacted production during the quarter. Reports were mixed as to whether SUN actually missed earnings with some saying they were inline with estimates. I am adding a cheap insurance put just in case support fails.

Insurance put:
Buy June $70 PUT SUN-RN currently 85 cents.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings: May 3rd, 70 cents vs 59 cents in comparison qtr

Current recommendation: Buy at $60, stop at $54

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VUN-AN @ $13.50
Cost update expired Jan put +2.40 = $15.90

Insurance Put:
Position: Jan $55 Put SUN-MK @ $2.40, expired

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VLO $73.35 +2.14 - Valero Energy

Friday was another new historic high for Valero and there appears to be nothing to stop them from printing money. Valero announced it was selling its 165,000 bpd Lima Ohio refinery to Husky Energy for $1.9 billion. Valero said the proceeds would be used to buy back stock. Valero has said it was going to streamline operations by divesting non-core assets. The Lima refinery was acquired in the $8 billion purchase of Premcor in 2005. No change in play.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings: April 24th $1.86 vs $1.32

Current recommendation: Buy at $65, stop at $57

LEAP Position:
9/24/06 Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call VHB-AL @ $7.70
Cost update expired Jan put +2.25 = $9.95

Insurance Put:
Position: 9/25 Jan $45 Put VLO-MI @ $2.25, expired

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DO - $88.56 +0.62 - Diamond Offshore ** Stop $79.00 **

DO set a new 52-week high on Friday and continues to rise on positive news about deepwater drillers. Land drillers may be in the dumps but the deepwater crowd is still afloat. No news and no change in play.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings: Apr 26th, $1.64 vs $1.06

Current recommendation: Buy at $75, stop at $69

LEAP Position:
8/29/06 Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call VCT-AP @ 14.20
Cost reduction: Oct $70 Put profit -3.15, cost now $11.05
Cost increase: Dec $60 put expired -2.40, cost now $13.45

Insurance Put:
10/08 Dec $60 Put DO-XL @ $2.40, expired

Position closed:
10/03 October $70 put DO-VN @ $1.65, exit @ $4.80, +3.15


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Non-Energy Positions
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TOL - $29.51 -0.69 - Toll Brothers

Toll is holding under resistance at $30.50 ahead of earnings on May 8th. We will get another chance to see if their outlook is better than the rest of the sector. No change in play

For initial commentary see Apr-21st newsletter

Earnings schedule: May 8th

Breakout target: $28.50 hit 4/16
Position: 2009 $35 LEAP OTY-AG @ $3.50

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BZH - $33.33 -1.51 - Beazer Homes ** LEAP PUT **

Beazer finally halted its rebound after admitting that the SEC had given them notice they were going to conduct an informal inquiry into their financial transactions. Hovnanian also put the brakes on the sector with another downgrade of projections on Thursday.

Beazer is being flooded with suits, some seeking class action status on charges it practiced predatory lending, filed illegal loan documents and manipulated its stock price. These types of suits appear whenever bad news appears about a company but in this case it looks grim.

For initial commentary see March-31st newsletter

Earnings: April 26th, -1.12 vs +2.35 in the comparison quarter.

Position: Jan-08 $25 PUT WZF-ME @ $3.10

No stop loss
 

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