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TSO - $63.74 +3.85 - Tesoro

TSO split 2:1 after the close on Tuesday and our $20 LEAP split into two $60 LEAPS. Contrary to the normal post split depression TSO spiked +$4 post split as new investors took advantage of the 50% reduction in share price. No change in play.

For initial commentary see April 29th newsletter.

2:1 Split: Record date May-14th, Pay date May 29th.

Earnings: May 3rd, $1.67 vs 61 cents in comparison qtr

Breakout target: $110 hit 10:AM on 4/23/07

Position: 2009 $120 LEAP Call ZGC-AD @ $16.68
Post split: (2) 2009 $60 LEAP Calls ZGC-AL @ $8.34

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ATW $65.93 +1.60 - Atwood Oceanics

Slow and steady wins the race and Atwood is nearing the May highs at $67 and recovering nicely from the early May dip. No news and no change in play.

Interesting article in Investors Business Daily regarding Atwood.

For initial commentary see April 29th newsletter.

Earnings: May 8th est $1.08, actual $1.01

Breakout trigger $60.50 hit 4/23/07
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call ZFJ-AN @ $6.50

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BHP - $53.94 +2.99 - BHP Billiton

BHP continued to rise with Friday's close another historic high. BHP named Marius Klopper to be the new CEO. Klopper is known as a deal maker so that fueled speculation that another acquisition is near. No specific news and no change in play.

No earnings date announced.

For initial commentary see March 17th newsletter.

Earnings schedule: No date announced.

Breakout target $43.50 hit March 12th

Position: JAN-09 $50 LEAP Call ZPK-AJ @ $6.00

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CCJ - $53.19 +2.09 - Cameco

CCJ finally broke out of its consolidation phase and set a new historic high at Friday's close. Uranium is not getting any cheaper and CCJ announced a new agreement with Kazakh to pursue additional production opportunities.

Worldwide there are 28 new reactors being built, 64 on the drawing boards and 158 in the proposal stages. If all were built it would be a 57% increase from the 435 reactors now in operation. In 2006 the world consumed 180 million pounds of uranium but produced only 103 million pounds. The rest came from Russian nuclear warheads being decommissioned. The supply from those warheads is dwindling and will be completely gone by 2015.

For initial commentary see March 10th newsletter.

Earnings: Apr-27th, -47% due to revenue timing

Breakout trigger: $37.50 Hit March 7th

Position: JAN-09 $40 LEAP Call ZBK-AH @ $7.80

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PTR - $130.70 +1.75 - Petrochina

PTR continues to hold near its five month highs but is being overshadowed by continual new discoveries by its sister company Sinopec. Patience is definitely a virtue here. No news and no change in play.

For initial commentary see March 10th newsletter.

Breakdown target:
$110 1/2 position - hit Mar-5th

Position: JAN-09 $120 LEAP Call ZJK-AD @ $10.70
Cost reduction 4/19 $10.70 -2.25 = $8.45

Cost reduction play:
Position: stopped @ $114 4/19
Short June $105 Put PTR-RA @ $3.40, exit $1.15. +2.25

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CHK $35.04 +.15 - Chesapeake Energy ** Stop loss $33.50 **

CHK is consolidating from the prior weeks gains on the DFW drilling news. No news this week to move the stock and gas prices are holding near $8. Raise the stop to $33.50.

For initial commentary see Dec-9th newsletter.

Earnings: May 4th, 87 cents vs est of 78 cents

Current recommendation: Hold

Position: 2009 $35 LEAP VEC-AG @ $5.30

Insurance put:
Oct $30 Put CHK-VF @ 90 cents. Profit stop $28

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MRO $126.76 +7.16 - Marathon Oil

MRO exploded higher once again after announcing a new discovery and adding $500 million to their buyback program. Even the sharp dip in crude prices mid week did nothing to slow Marathon from even higher highs.

MRO reported on Wednesday that their Droshky discovery in the Gulf probably contained 80-90 million barrels of oil equivalent and test wells had discovered several zone of net pay. The field is only 2 miles from a pipeline collection terminal and therefore extremely easy to produce. The depth of 2900 feet is also shallow enough to be considered routine. Nice piece of news for Marathon!

No change in play.

For initial commentary see Nov-18th newsletter.

Earnings: May 1st, $2.04 vs est $1.93

2:1 Stock Split June 18th, record date May 23rd

Current recommendation: Hold

Position 2009 $100 LEAP Call VXM-AT @ $12.60
Cost update: Expired March put +65 cents to $13.25

Insurance put: 2/18/07
Position: March $85 PUT MRO-OQ @ 65 cents. expired

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HES - $60.26 -.02 - Hess Corporation *** Stop Loss $57 ***
(Formerly (AHC))

HESS moved sideways on no news and despite several recommendations it just can't seem to follow Marathon's example.

I am adding a stop loss at $57. When good companies don't perform along with the sector it could be a warning sign that trouble is coming.

For initial commentary see Nov-4th newsletter.

Earnings: Apr-25th, $1.17 vs $2.22

Current recommendation: Hold

Position:
11/05/06 2009 $50 LEAP Call VHS-AJ @ $6.80
Cost adjustment put exit +1.60, cost = $8.40
Cost adjustment May puts +2.15, cost = $10.55

Insurance Put: Triggered Jan-3rd @ $49
01/03/07 May $45 put HES-QI @ $2.60, exit 1/26 $1.00

Insurance Put: 2/26/07
MAY $50 PUT IGG-QJ @ $1.35 expired
May $55 Put IGG-QK @ $.80 expired

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BTU - $54.70 +0.74 - Peabody Energy

BTU continues to coil tighter just under $55 and this could be the last opportunity for adding to this position. BTU said this week they are investing $10 million into a RenTech (RTK) coal-to-liquids plant in IL. They will also supply 1 million tons of coal per year to the facility. Rentech is planning on producing 400,000 barrels of synthetic fuel per year as well as 545,000 tons of nitrogen fertilizer. In other news China said it had upped its coal imports and they get their coal from Australia and BTU is the supplier. No change in play.

For initial commentary see Oct-22nd newsletter.

Earnings schedule: April 19th, -32% on special items

Current recommendation: Buy at $46.50

Position:
10/22/06 Jan-2009 $50 LEAP Call ZZT-AJ @ $8.70
02/05/07 March put stopped -$1.00, cost = $9.70

Insurance put: Triggered with drop through $39
01/03/07 March $35 Put BTU-OG at $1.15, stopped @ $42.50

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SLB $78.19 -1.05 Schlumberger *** Stop Loss $77 ***

SLB is still struggling after the strong bounce in mid May and then downgrades on drilling slowdowns. I am not ready to exit SLB but we have an $8 profit in the LEAP and summer could be rocky for the service companies. I am adding a stop loss at $77. If current support fails we will bail.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings: April 20th, 96 cents vs est of 91 cents

Current recommendation: Buy at $60, stop at $55

LEAP Position:
1/2 9/11/06 @ $8.60
1/2 9/12/06 @ $8.00
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VWY-AN @ $8.30
Cost update for expired Jan put +2.00 = $10.30

Insurance Put: 9/18
Position: Jan $50 Put SLB-MJ @ $2.00, expired

Insurance put:
Position: June $70 PUT SLB-RN @ $1.15

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SUN $81.11 +2.82 - Sunoco *** Stop Loss $76 ***

No news but the dip buying continues. SUN closed at a new high on Friday with a final breakout over resistance at $80 dating back to last August. I added a stop at $76.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings: May 3rd, 70 cents vs 59 cents in comparison qtr

Current recommendation: Buy at $60, stop at $54

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VUN-AN @ $13.50
Cost update expired Jan put +2.40 = $15.90

Insurance Put:
Position: Jan $55 Put SUN-MK @ $2.40, expired

Insurance put:
Position: June $70 PUT SUN-RN @ 85 cents.

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VLO $75.88 +1.14 - Valero Energy *** Stop Loss $72.00 ***

The volatility continues in Valero and was enhanced by the sharp dip in crude prices over the week. However Valero recovered nicely and closed at the high for the week. With $13 profit in the LEAP I don't want to take any chances. Raise the stop to $72.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings: April 24th $1.86 vs $1.32

Current recommendation: Buy at $65, stop at $57

LEAP Position:
9/24/06 Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call VHB-AL @ $7.70
Cost update expired Jan put +2.25 = $9.95

Insurance Put:
Position: 9/25 Jan $45 Put VLO-MI @ $2.25, expired

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DO - $94.47 +1.09 - Diamond Offshore ** Stop $91.00 **

DO spiked out of its recent consolidation range to hit $96.34 on Thursday and that is almost exactly the resistance high set in May-2006. There was absolutely no news as though DO had turned into a stealth stock for two weeks running. Due to the steady drift down from May 2006 I am going to raise the stop to $91 to capture as much of the current $10.50 LEAP profit as possible if a roll over occurs.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings: Apr 26th, $1.64 vs $1.06

Current recommendation: Buy at $75, stop at $69

LEAP Position:
8/29/06 Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call VCT-AP @ 14.20
Cost reduction: Oct $70 Put profit -3.15, cost now $11.05
Cost increase: Dec $60 put expired -2.40, cost now $13.45

Insurance Put:
10/08 Dec $60 Put DO-XL @ $2.40, expired

Position closed:
10/03 October $70 put DO-VN @ $1.65, exit @ $4.80, +3.15


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Non-Energy Positions
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TEX - $86.08 +5.08 Terex Corp *** Stop Loss $80.00 ***

Terex spiked +$6 on no specific news but another crane company said the demand was way in excess of supply and the backlog on getting new cranes built was well over a year. I raised the stop to $80. We were triggered on a spike on our initial entry that sent LEAPS prices soaring. As a result those prices have faded and we are barely profitable despite the strong gains. I don't want to give that back.

For initial commentary see May-13th newsletter

Breakout target $81.00 Hit 5/07

Position: Jan-09 $90 LEAP Call VXQ-AR @ $16.40

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AAPL - $118.40 +4.78 Apple, Inc *** Closed ***

Apple sprinted higher as the iPhone release date approaches. Unfortunately as that date approaches so does the risk to profits on any negative news. That is why I recommended closing the play at $118 on Wednesday. We pocked $12 in LEAP profits for only 4 weeks in the play.

For initial commentary see May-13th newsletter.

Breakout target: $102.00 Hit 05/07

Position:
Jan 2009 $110 LEAP Call VAA-AB @ $17.50, exit 29.50, +12.00

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ATI - $116.54 +5.48 - Allegheny Tech

Another stellar week and another historic high on Friday. No news and no change in play.

For initial commentary see May-5th newsletter

Breakdown target $110.00 hit 04/30

Call spread:
LONG JAN-09 $110 LEAP Call OYG-AX @ $21.50 (now 26.50)
SHORT JAN-09 $140 LEAP Call ZKG-AH @ $9.50 (now 12.10)

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TOL - $28.76 -1.20 - Toll Brothers *** Closed ***

My patience has expired with Toll and the builders in general. Various negative statements by builders last week and downgrades by S&P may be too much weight for these fragile stocks to carry. There is no reason to hang on just because they will eventually recover. We have better places to put our money. Exit now for a minor -20 cent loss and call it a day.

For initial commentary see Apr-21st newsletter

Earnings schedule: May 24th

Breakout target: $28.50 hit 4/16
Position: 2009 $35 LEAP OTY-AG @ $3.50, exit $3.30, -20 cents

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BZH - $35.17 -.18 - Beazer Homes *** STOP LOSS $37.50 ***

Beazer has fallen back to support at $35 and with debt downgrades from Moody's and continued legal problems I can't help but think BZH will turn farther south very soon. To limit our risk of going even farther in the hole I added a stop at $37.50.

Beazer has several suits pending, some seeking class action status on charges it practiced predatory lending, filed illegal loan documents and manipulated its stock price.

For initial commentary see March-31st newsletter

Earnings: April 26th, -1.12 vs +2.35 in the comparison quarter.

Position: Jan-08 $25 PUT WZF-ME @ $3.10
 

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