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HDY - $2.99 - +0.51 Hyperdynamics Corp

Hyperdynamics hit $4 on Thursday before being knocked for a loss on the market weakness and the drop in oil prices. They had a favorable settlement of a suit with US Oil severing any claims US Oil had to the 31,000 square mile exploration tract they are working in West Africa.

The drop back to $2.99 at Friday's close gives you a second chance to enter this play.

For initial commentary see June 3rd newsletter.

Position: HDY stock @ $2.44

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TSO - $59.20 -4.54 - Tesoro

TSO recovered some of the nearly $7 drop caused by the market and the drop in oil prices. There was no news and the drop was caused entirely by the unexpected jump in gasoline supplies I reported earlier.

This may be an excellent opportunity to enter this play if you have not already done so.

No change in play.

For initial commentary see April 29th newsletter.

Earnings: May 3rd, $1.67 vs 61 cents in comparison qtr

Breakout target: $55 hit 10:AM on 4/23/07

Position: 2009 $120 LEAP Call ZGC-AD @ $16.68
Post split: (2) 2009 $60 LEAP Calls ZGC-AL @ $8.34

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ATW $64.38 +1.55 - Atwood Oceanics

No news and a -$3 drop from the Monday highs to support on market weakness. No change in play.

Interesting article in Investors Business Daily regarding Atwood.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/070418/newamer.html?.v=1

For initial commentary see April 29th newsletter.

Earnings: May 8th est $1.08, actual $1.01

Breakout trigger $60.50 hit 4/23/07
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call ZFJ-AN @ $6.50

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BHP - $55.78 +1.84 - BHP Billiton

BHP rose to another 52-week high on speculation that China could be eying a takeout of BHP to help fuel their metal needs. China recently formed a $237 billion investment company and BHP is thought to be a target of that investment. China has a history of buying commodity assets to prevent other countries from having access. China is consuming large amounts of metals and ores and taking BHP's assets off the market would be a major achievment for China and a serious problem for the rest of the world. BHP has mining assets in everything from coal, uranium, various metals and oil. With a marker cap of $163 billion it would be a big bite for China but entirely doable. No change in play.

No earnings date announced.

For initial commentary see March 17th newsletter.

Earnings schedule: No date announced.

Breakout target $43.50 hit March 12th

Position: JAN-09 $50 LEAP Call ZPK-AJ @ $6.00

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CCJ - $52.00 -1.19 - Cameco

CCJ lost $3 in the melee after setting a new high on Tuesday. No change in play.

Worldwide there are 28 new reactors being built, 64 on the drawing boards and 158 in the proposal stages. If all were built it would be a 57% increase from the 435 reactors now in operation. In 2006 the world consumed 180 million pounds of uranium but produced only 103 million pounds. The rest came from Russian nuclear warheads being decommissioned. The supply from those warheads is dwindling and will be completely gone by 2015.

For initial commentary see March 10th newsletter.

Earnings: Apr-27th, -47% due to revenue timing

Breakout trigger: $37.50 Hit March 7th

Position: JAN-09 $40 LEAP Call ZBK-AH @ $7.80

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PTR - $134.66 +3.96 - Petrochina

PTR finally found some traction after HSBC upgraded them on Monday. The sprint to $136 held up great in the latter week selling with PTR holding its gains and looking very strong. No news and no change in play.

For initial commentary see March 10th newsletter.

Breakdown target:
$110 1/2 position - hit Mar-5th

Position: JAN-09 $120 LEAP Call ZJK-AD @ $10.70
Cost reduction 4/19 $10.70 -2.25 = $8.45

Cost reduction play:
Position: stopped @ $114 4/19
Short June $105 Put PTR-RA @ $3.40, exit $1.15. +2.25

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CHK $35.58 +.54 - Chesapeake Energy ** Stop loss $33.50 **

CHK spiked over $36.50 on Monday on positive gas news but the end of week drop in gas knocked CHK back into the prior range. No change in play.

For initial commentary see Dec-9th newsletter.

Earnings: May 4th, 87 cents vs est of 78 cents

Current recommendation: Hold

Position: 2009 $35 LEAP VEC-AG @ $5.30

Insurance put:
Oct $30 Put CHK-VF @ 90 cents. Profit stop $28

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MRO $125.45 -1.31 - Marathon Oil

If you were waiting for an entry point this is it. Marathon declined about $4 from the week's high but recovered to end up with a weekly loss of only $1.31. No news other than Lehman upgrading them to neutral with a price target of $109. With MRO trading at $125 that target would be embarrassing in my opinion. Don't forget the 2:1 split coming in a week.

No change in play.

For initial commentary see Nov-18th newsletter.

Earnings: May 1st, $2.04 vs est $1.93

2:1 Stock Split June 18th, record date May 23rd

Current recommendation: Hold

Position 2009 $100 LEAP Call VXM-AT @ $12.60
Cost update: Expired March put +65 cents to $13.25

Insurance put: 2/18/07
Position: March $85 PUT MRO-OQ @ 65 cents. expired

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HES - $59.07 -1.19 - Hess Corporation *** Stop Loss $57 ***
(Formerly (AHC))

HESS slipped -$2 from it highs on no news and a weak market. Maintain the stop at $57 just in case.

For initial commentary see Nov-4th newsletter.

Earnings: Apr-25th, $1.17 vs $2.22

Current recommendation: Hold

Position:
11/05/06 2009 $50 LEAP Call VHS-AJ @ $6.80
Cost adjustment put exit +1.60, cost = $8.40
Cost adjustment May puts +2.15, cost = $10.55

Insurance Put: Triggered Jan-3rd @ $49
01/03/07 May $45 put HES-QI @ $2.60, exit 1/26 $1.00

Insurance Put: 2/26/07
MAY $50 PUT IGG-QJ @ $1.35 expired
May $55 Put IGG-QK @ $.80 expired

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BTU - $51.48 -3.22 - Peabody Energy

Same story different stock. No news and no change in play.

For initial commentary see Oct-22nd newsletter.

Earnings schedule: April 19th, -32% on special items

Current recommendation: Buy at $46.50

Position:
10/22/06 Jan-2009 $50 LEAP Call ZZT-AJ @ $8.70
02/05/07 March put stopped -$1.00, cost = $9.70

Insurance put: Triggered with drop through $39
01/03/07 March $35 Put BTU-OG at $1.15, stopped @ $42.50

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SLB $78.19 +0.57 Schlumberger *** Stop Loss $77 ***

SLB held remarkably firm despite the market volatility trading in a narrow $2 range and ending the week with a slight gain. Lehman raise their forecast for spending on exploration and production to show a +13% increase over 2006 levels to about $308 billion in 2007. SLB, RIG and DO were expected to profit from this increase. No change in play.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings: April 20th, 96 cents vs est of 91 cents

Current recommendation: Buy at $60, stop at $55

LEAP Position:
1/2 9/11/06 @ $8.60
1/2 9/12/06 @ $8.00
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VWY-AN @ $8.30
Cost update for expired Jan put +2.00 = $10.30

Insurance Put: 9/18
Position: Jan $50 Put SLB-MJ @ $2.00, expired

Insurance put:
Position: June $70 PUT SLB-RN @ $1.15

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SUN $79.62 -1.49 - Sunoco *** Stop Loss $76 ***

After hitting a new high at $85 on Tuesday is was all downhill until Friday. SUN came within a buck of the stop loss before rebounding. The spike in gasoline inventories powered the dive. Maintain the stop at $76.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings: May 3rd, 70 cents vs 59 cents in comparison qtr

Current recommendation: Buy at $60, stop at $54

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VUN-AN @ $13.50
Cost update expired Jan put +2.40 = $15.90

Insurance Put:
Position: Jan $55 Put SUN-MK @ $2.40, expired

Insurance put:
Position: June $70 PUT SUN-RN @ 85 cents.

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VLO $73.43 -2.45 - Valero Energy *** Stopped $72.00 ***

VLO hit our raised stop at $72 at Friday's open. It was a shame to exit but we had $11 in profits on a $9 option. We can't complain. If gasoline levels continue to rise we may be glad we took this early exit.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings: April 24th $1.86 vs $1.32

Current recommendation: Buy at $65, stop at $57

LEAP Position:
9/24/06 Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call VHB-AL @ $7.70
Cost update expired Jan put +2.25 = $9.95

Insurance Put:
Position: 9/25 Jan $45 Put VLO-MI @ $2.25, expired

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DO - $91.62 -2.85 - Diamond Offshore ** Stopped $91.00 **

DO spiked to a new historic high on Monday at $97.60 and then fell straight to $90.74 on Friday triggering our stop at $91.00 by 26 cents. We exited the play with a profit of over $8 after a strong run.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings: Apr 26th, $1.64 vs $1.06

Current recommendation: Buy at $75, stop at $69

LEAP Position:
8/29/06 Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call VCT-AP @ 14.20
Cost reduction: Oct $70 Put profit -3.15, cost now $11.05
Cost increase: Dec $60 put expired -2.40, cost now $13.45
Exit 6/08 @ $91.00 - $21.70, +8.25

Insurance Put:
10/08 Dec $60 Put DO-XL @ $2.40, expired

Position closed:
10/03 October $70 put DO-VN @ $1.65, exit @ $4.80, +3.15


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Non-Energy Positions
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TEX - $82.17 -3.91 Terex Corp *** Stop Loss $80.00 ***

That was really close! TEX declined to $80.11 on Friday before rebounding. That missed our stop by only 11 cents. It declined right to support and this should be a buying opportunity if the market does not implode next week.

For initial commentary see May-13th newsletter

Breakout target $81.00 Hit 5/07

Position: Jan-09 $90 LEAP Call VXQ-AR @ $16.40

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ATI - $111.66 -4.88 - Allegheny Tech

ATI gave back almost as much as it gained in the prior week before finding a bottom. The volatility is increasing on ATI on a daily basis. Fortunately this is a long term directional spread and our short call will decline faster than the long call. No change in play.

For initial commentary see May-5th newsletter

Breakdown target $110.00 hit 04/30

Call spread:
LONG JAN-09 $110 LEAP Call OYG-AX @ $21.50 (now 26.50)
SHORT JAN-09 $140 LEAP Call ZKG-AH @ $9.50 (now 12.10)

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BZH - $32.49 -2.68 - Beazer Homes *** STOP LOSS $36.50 ***

We finally got a major breakdown in Beazer to a new six-week low. The drop came one day after builder Meyer-Sutton filed for bankruptcy due to a sudden and dramatic decline in housing fundamentals. Beazer reported a -$43 million loss on declining home sales for Q1.

Beazer has several suits pending, some seeking class action status on charges it practiced predatory lending, filed illegal loan documents and manipulated its stock price.

For initial commentary see March-31st newsletter

Earnings: April 26th, -1.12 vs +2.35 in the comparison quarter.

Position: Jan-08 $25 PUT WZF-ME @ $3.10
 

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