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BRS - $51.21 +0.02 Bristow Group

Bristow continues to hold at the highs and did rather well compared to some energy stocks that lost ground. There was no news and no change in the play.

For initial commentary see June 17th newsletter

Bristow has no LEAPS

Breakout trigger: $50.50 hit 6/14

Position: Dec $50 Calls BRS-LJ @ $5.00

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MDR - $81.33 -2.16 - McDermott Intl

We saw MDR pull back to what became firm support on Thr/Fri at $80 and we saw a spike at the bell on Friday. McDermott and Fluor (FLR) are going to partner to build a monster gas drilling and production platform off the coast of Trinidad. Fluor will handle overall project management and the design and fabrication of the 4,000-ton topside. McDermott will design, procure and fabricate a 9,100-ton jacket and 4,600 tons of piles including installation. No price was given for the project but you can bet it is not cheap!

For initial commentary see June 17th newsletter

Breakout trigger: $78.00 Hit 6/11

Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call OYZ-AP @ $9.80

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HOS - $41.25 +0.20 - Hornbeck Offshore Services

Hornbeck recovered from a mid-week decline and returned to close near its historic high on Friday. There was no news for the week.

For initial commentary see June 10th newsletter

Breakdown trigger: $39.00 hit 6/08

Position: 2009 $40 LEAP Call ZIG-AH @ $8.00

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HDY - $3.03 - +0.03 Hyperdynamics Corp

Hyperdynamics continues to consolidate while we wait for the contract to be ratified in Guinea. Meanwhile they signed a new lease agreement for 1,100 acres in Louisiana. The lease reportedly contains 250,000 barrels of proven reserves and in excess of one million barrels of probable reserves. Claude Rabb, an independent producer in Louisiana will operate and manage the lease to produce the maximum recoverable amounts. This is just small change compared to the pending lease in Guinea.

The Guinea National Assembly is going to ratify the HDY contract for revenue sharing before the current special session closes. This contract when ratified will become a "Project of Law" or super contract that cannot in normal circumstances be broken. Once the contract is ratified HDY will begin a rapid development phase on its 31,000 square mile lease.

Once the contract is ratified I doubt we will see $3 again. Last chance!

For initial commentary see June 3rd newsletter.

Position: HDY stock @ $2.44

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TSO - $61.44 -1.32 - Tesoro

TSO lost ground late in the week but continued to hold near the highs. TSO reported a refinery in California lost power and had to be restarted early in the week. No other news and no change in the play.

No change in play.

For initial commentary see April 29th newsletter.

Earnings: May 3rd, $1.67 vs 61 cents in comparison qtr

Breakout target: $55 hit 10:AM on 4/23/07

Position: 2009 $120 LEAP Call ZGC-AD @ $16.68
Post split: (2) 2009 $60 LEAP Calls ZGC-AL @ $8.34

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ATW $69.76 +1.98 - Atwood Oceanics

Atwood closed at a new historic high on Friday after reacting to the RIG/BP news. ATW is a potential takeover candidate. No change in play.

Interesting article in Investors Business Daily regarding Atwood.

For initial commentary see April 29th newsletter.

Earnings: May 8th est $1.08, actual $1.01

Breakout trigger $60.50 hit 4/23/07
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call ZFJ-AN @ $6.50

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BHP - $59.47 +1.60 - BHP Billiton

BHP continued to move higher after Goldman Sachs reiterated its conviction buy rating. Goldman said expected volume growth across its base metals, iron ore and petroleum divisions should drive substantial increases in cash flow. It was a good week and no weakness in sight.

Prior commentary:

BHP continues to rise on speculation that China could be eying a takeout of BHP to help fuel their metal needs. China recently formed a $237 billion investment company and BHP is thought to be a target of that investment. China has a history of buying commodity assets to prevent other countries from having access. China is consuming large amounts of metals and ores and taking BHP's assets off the market would be a major achievment for China and a serious problem for the rest of the world. BHP has mining assets in everything from coal, uranium, various metals and oil. With a marker cap of $163 billion it would be a big bite for China but entirely doable.

No earnings date announced.

For initial commentary see March 17th newsletter.

Earnings schedule: No date announced.

Breakout target $43.50 hit March 12th

Position: JAN-09 $50 LEAP Call ZPK-AJ @ $6.00

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CCJ - $53.15 -2.45 - Cameco

CCJ lost some ground after the monster news driven spike the prior week. No news but the price of uranium is not going down.

In April Cameco projected sales would be 50% higher in 2007.

Worldwide there are 24 new reactors being built, 41 on the drawing boards and 113 in the proposal stages. If all were built it would be a 50% increase from the 435 reactors now in operation. In 2006 the world consumed 180 million pounds of uranium but produced only 103 million pounds. The rest came from Russian nuclear warheads being decommissioned. The supply from those warheads is dwindling and will be completely gone by 2015.

For initial commentary see March 10th newsletter.

Earnings: Apr-27th, -47% due to revenue timing

Breakout trigger: $37.50 Hit March 7th

Position: JAN-09 $40 LEAP Call ZBK-AH @ $7.80

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PTR - $149.26 +9.61 - Petrochina

PTR produced another stellar week by announcing they were going to launch so-called A shares in Shanghai. Mainlanders are prohibited from buying HK-listed companies will finally be able to invest in the second largest global oil company. PTR will sell 4 billion yuan-denominated A shares in a Shanghai public offering and use the money to fund exploration. With the Shanghai markets exploding it is a good bet that investors will snap up the new offering very quickly. That news was good for a massive spike. We are up a massive $25 on this leap as we should be taking profits. Unfortunately we have gotten out of several winners lately that continued much higher. I am going to ride it out until August. No change in play.

For initial commentary see March 10th newsletter.

Breakdown target:
$110 1/2 position - hit Mar-5th

Position: JAN-09 $120 LEAP Call ZJK-AD @ $10.70
Cost reduction 4/19 $10.70 -2.25 = $8.45

Cost reduction play:
Position: stopped @ $114 4/19
Short June $105 Put PTR-RA @ $3.40, exit $1.15. +2.25

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CHK $36.22 -1.10 - Chesapeake Energy ** Stop loss $33.50 **

CHK came off its highs as the price of gas plummeted but still remains above ascending support at $35.60. No news and no change in play.

For initial commentary see Dec-9th newsletter.

Earnings: May 4th, 87 cents vs est of 78 cents

Current recommendation: Hold

Position: 2009 $35 LEAP VEC-AG @ $5.30

Insurance put:
Oct $30 Put CHK-VF @ 90 cents. Profit stop $28

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MRO $62.12 -5.13 - Marathon Oil

MRO split 2:1 after the close on Monday and post split depression immediately hammered the stock back to support at $62. We now have 2 $50 LEAPS for every one you owned before. AG Edwards cut MRO to a hold on June-19th. They just raised it to a buy on May 22nd. Make up your mind guys! No other news.

No change in play.

For initial commentary see Nov-18th newsletter.

Earnings: May 1st, $2.04 vs est $1.93

2:1 Stock Split June 18th, record date May 23rd

Current recommendation: Buy above $60

Position 2009 $100 LEAP Call VXM-AT @ $12.60
Cost update: Expired March put +65 cents to $13.25
Post split: (2) 2009 $50 LEAP Calls VXM-AJ @ $6.62

Insurance put: 2/18/07
Position: March $85 PUT MRO-OQ @ 65 cents. expired

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HES - $59.72 -1.28 - Hess Corporation *** Stop Loss $57 ***
(Formerly (AHC))

The rebound ended sharply but not quite enough to trigger our stop at $57. I am considering exiting this position for lack of movement. No reason to sit on it while the premium evaporates. I will decide this week based on oil prices and Hess's reaction to those prices. No news.

Maintain the stop at $57 just in case.

For initial commentary see Nov-4th newsletter.

Earnings: Apr-25th, $1.17 vs $2.22

Current recommendation: Hold

Position:
11/05/06 2009 $50 LEAP Call VHS-AJ @ $6.80
Cost adjustment put exit +1.60, cost = $8.40
Cost adjustment May puts +2.15, cost = $10.55

Insurance Put: Triggered Jan-3rd @ $49
01/03/07 May $45 put HES-QI @ $2.60, exit 1/26 $1.00

Insurance Put: 2/26/07
MAY $50 PUT IGG-QJ @ $1.35 expired
May $55 Put IGG-QK @ $.80 expired

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BTU - $49.18 -3.11 - Peabody Energy *** NEW STOP $48 ***

BTU is still struggling after the news broke on double emissions on coal to liquid generation. I added a stop to BTU to take us out of the trend continues. No change in play.

For initial commentary see Oct-22nd newsletter.

Earnings schedule: April 19th, -32% on special items

Current recommendation: hold

Position:
10/22/06 Jan-2009 $50 LEAP Call ZZT-AJ @ $8.70
02/05/07 March put stopped -$1.00, cost = $9.70

Insurance put: Triggered with drop through $39
01/03/07 March $35 Put BTU-OG at $1.15, stopped @ $42.50

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SLB $89.20 +4.60 Schlumberger *** Stop Loss $83 ***

SLB closed at a new historic high on Friday as a result of being included in the Russell. Considering the last five analyst rating changes have been downgrades we should be very thankful of the Russell inclusion. Next week will be the key for direction. I changed the stop loss to capture profits if we get a sudden roll over.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings schedule: July 20th

Current recommendation: hold

LEAP Position:
1/2 9/11/06 @ $8.60
1/2 9/12/06 @ $8.00
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VWY-AN @ $8.30
Cost update for expired Jan put +2.00 = $10.30
Cost update for expired June put +1.15 = $11.45

Insurance Put: 9/18
Position: Jan $50 Put SLB-MJ @ $2.00, expired

Insurance put:
Position: June $70 PUT SLB-RN @ $1.15, expired

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SUN $83.75 -1.17 - Sunoco *** Stop Loss $76 ***

That was a minor pullback given the +$5 gain in the prior week. No news and no change in the play. Maintain the stop at $76.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings: May 3rd, 70 cents vs 59 cents in comparison qtr

Current recommendation: Hold

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VUN-AN @ $13.50
Cost update expired Jan put +2.40 = $15.90
Cost update expired June put +0.85 = $16.75

Insurance Put:
Position: Jan $55 Put SUN-MK @ $2.40, expired

Insurance put:
Position: June $70 PUT SUN-RN @ 85 cents, expired.

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Non-Energy Positions
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TEX - $83.50 -1.40 Terex Corp *** Stop Loss $80.00 ***

TEX has failed to maintain any momentum and I am maintaining the stop at $80 on no news.

For initial commentary see May-13th newsletter

Breakout target $81.00 Hit 5/07

Position: Jan-09 $90 LEAP Call VXQ-AR @ $16.40

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ATI - $106.77 -3.43 - Allegheny Tech *** New Stop $105 ***

The Nucor warning in the prior week continues to weigh on the entire metals sector. This is a directional spread and we are dead even on profit today. I am adding a stop at $105 and we will find another play if we are taken out.

For initial commentary see May-5th newsletter

Breakdown target $110.00 hit 04/30

Call spread:
LONG JAN-09 $110 LEAP Call OYG-AX @ $21.50
SHORT JAN-09 $140 LEAP Call ZKG-AH @ $9.50

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BZH - $29.44 -2.34 - Beazer Homes *** STOP LOSS $36.50 ***

Beazer is finally dropping like a rock on the general weakness in the homebuilders. There was no news but maybe investors are starting to lose their wishful thinking on Beazer's future.

Beazer has several suits pending, some seeking class action status on charges it practiced predatory lending, filed illegal loan documents and manipulated its stock price.

For initial commentary see March-31st newsletter

Earnings: April 26th, -1.12 vs +2.35 in the comparison quarter.

Position: Jan-08 $25 PUT WZF-ME @ $3.10
 

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