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RIMM - $227.52 +12.17 - Research in Motion

RIMM continued its unbelievable ride with another $12 gain. The mid week profit taking was minimal and the sprint higher continues. I am kicking myself for not making a simple long entry instead of a spread but with calls $20-$30 a piece at the time it seemed like the right move. We should still exit with a $30 profit once the premium decay ends from both options going into the money.

For initial commentary see the July 1st newsletter.

Breakdown trigger: $168.00 hit 6/25

Call spread:
Position: LONG 2009 $180 LEAP Call VHO-AP @ $32.60
Position: SHORT 2009 $230 LEAP Call VHO-AF @ $10.47

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NOV - $111.85 +1.74 - National Oilwell ** Stop Loss $105.50 **

No news for NOV but the rally continues. NOV appears to be nearing another breakout phase. I raised the stop again to take us out with a profit should oil crash.

For initial commentary see the July 1st newsletter.

Earnings Schedule: July 25th

Breakdown trigger: $100 hit 6/27
(no leaps)

Position: Feb 2008 $110 Call NOV-BB @ $10.50

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GSF - $73.05 -2.02 - GlobalSantaFe *** Stop Loss $71 ***

GSF gave up ground all week and the BHI warning did not help. I raised the stop again just in case. There was no news.

For initial commentary see the July 1st newsletter.

Earnings schedule: Aug 1st

Breakdown target: $70 Hit 6/27

Position: 2010 $80 LEAP Call WEJ-AP @ $10.10

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CNQ $70.77 +2.97 Canadian National Res ** Stop Loss $66.50 **

The rebound continued on no news. I raised the stop again to protect the position.

For initial commentary see the July 1st newsletter.

Earnings schedule: Aug 2nd

Breakdown target: $65 Hit 6/25

Position: Jan 2009 $70 LEAP Call OKR-AN @ $9.50

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NOK - 29.91 +0.99 Nokia

Nokia bounced again to another new high on news they were going to allow Skype calls on their N800 Internet Tablet Smart Phone. This is also a positive for Ebay, which owns Skype.

For initial commentary see June 24th newsletter

Earnings schedule: Aug 2nd

Breakdown trigger: $28.00 Hit 6/21

Position: 2010 $30 LEAP Calls WIK-AF @ $4.90

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BRS - $53.06 +2.16 Bristow Group ** Stop Loss $50.50 **

Bristow finally came back to life and rallied to a new historic high. I raised the stop again.

For initial commentary see June 17th newsletter

Earnings schedule: Aug 3rd

Bristow has no LEAPS

Breakout trigger: $50.50 hit 6/14

Position: Dec $50 Calls BRS-LJ @ $5.00

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MDR - $92.09 +2.20 - McDermott Intl ** Stop Loss $86 **

MDR shook off the midweek weakness and rallied to another new high with a nice +3.42 gain on Friday. I raised the stop loss just in case.

For initial commentary see June 17th newsletter

Earnings schedule: No date yet

Breakout trigger: $78.00 Hit 6/11

Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call OYZ-AP @ $9.80

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HOS - $40.37 +1.04 - Hornbeck Offshore *** Stop $38.75 ***

No news on HOS and a minor move. I raised the stop again to take us out on any future weakness.

For initial commentary see June 10th newsletter

Breakdown trigger: $39.00 hit 6/08

Position: 2009 $40 LEAP Call ZIG-AH @ $8.00

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HDY - $2.98 +0.03 Hyperdynamics Corp

Still waiting for the contract to be ratified. The special session of the Guinea National Assembly began on July 6th and the contract has been given priority status and could become a special law by the end of next week.

The Guinea National Assembly is going to ratify the HDY contract for revenue sharing before the current special session closes. This contract when ratified will become a "Project of Law" or super contract that cannot in normal circumstances be broken. Once the contract is ratified HDY will begin a rapid development phase on its 31,000 square mile lease.

For initial commentary see June 3rd newsletter.

Position: HDY stock @ $2.44

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TSO - $59.20 +0.29 - Tesoro *** Stop Loss $56.50 ***

TSO is starting to weaken and with gasoline prices falling we may get taken out of this position next week. I raised the stop once again.

For initial commentary see April 29th newsletter.

Earnings schedule: Aug 7th

Breakout target: $55 hit 10:AM on 4/23/07

Position: 2009 $120 LEAP Call ZGC-AD @ $16.68
Post split: (2) 2009 $60 LEAP Calls ZGC-AL @ $8.34

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ATW $71.34 -0.53 - Atwood Oceanics ** Stop Loss $67 **

Another nice week until Wednesday's drop knocked ATW back to $70. The trend appeared to recover by Friday's close. ATW is a potential takeover candidate. No news and no change in play.

Interesting article in Investors Business Daily regarding Atwood.

For initial commentary see April 29th newsletter.

Earnings schedule: Aug 8th

Breakout trigger $60.50 hit 4/23/07
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call ZFJ-AN @ $6.50

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BHP - $67.96 +2.68 - BHP Billiton *** Stop Loss $64.50 ***

BHP continues to set new highs and the feeling now is Alcoa may be too expensive to tackle. BHP had been rumored to be considering a bid for Alcoa but the end to the Alcan deal sent Alcoa surging another $5 to a market cap of $41 billion. Add in a premium and that may price Alcoa out of the market. BHP is rising on the thought that they will pass on Alcoa and pickup a couple smaller companies to fill holes in their portfolio. BHP has risen more than 50% since we entered this position back in March.

The $40 billion gain in market cap by BHP in the last two months has taken them off the potential hit list for a China takeover. With a market cap of $200 billion today they are too pricey even for China.

For initial commentary see March 17th newsletter.

Earnings schedule: Aug 22nd

Breakout target $43.50 hit March 12th

Position: JAN-09 $50 LEAP Call ZPK-AJ @ $6.00

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CCJ - $50.65 +.39 - Cameco *** Stop Loss $47.50 ***

The early week bounce was sold midweek and we ended about where we started the week on CCJ. Uranium prices actually fell last week for the first time in over 4 years from $138 to $135 per pound. That produced a near panic in several other uranium stocks but CCJ barely budged. I am going to keep the stop in place just in case.

In April Cameco projected sales would be 50% higher in 2007.

Worldwide there are 24 new reactors being built, 41 on the drawing boards and 113 in the proposal stages. If all were built it would be a 50% increase from the 435 reactors now in operation. In 2006 the world consumed 180 million pounds of uranium but produced only 103 million pounds. The rest came from Russian nuclear warheads being decommissioned. The supply from those warheads is dwindling and will be completely gone by 2015.

For initial commentary see March 10th newsletter.

Earnings Schedule: July 30th

Breakout trigger: $37.50 Hit March 7th

Position: JAN-09 $40 LEAP Call ZBK-AH @ $7.80

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PTR - $158.78 +1.28 - Petrochina *** Stop Loss $152.50 ***

What! Only a dollar gain? PTR has been so strong, +$9 in the prior week that a mere buck gain is almost unheard of. It remains pegged to the historic high at $160 and ready to run once again. PTR said it hired UBS to manage its Shanghai IPO in November. The IPO in that market is expected to raise another $6.6 billion. We are up +$39 in this one position! I raised the stop again.

For initial commentary see March 10th newsletter.

Breakdown target:
$110 1/2 position - hit Mar-5th

Position: JAN-09 $120 LEAP Call ZJK-AD @ $10.70
Cost reduction 4/19 $10.70 -2.25 = $8.45

Cost reduction play:
Position: stopped @ $114 4/19
Short June $105 Put PTR-RA @ $3.40, exit $1.15. +2.25

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CHK $36.32 +1.07 - Chesapeake Energy ** Stop loss $33.50 **

CHK surprised traders with a whopping big deal with Anadarko. Under the agreement the pair will jointly explore more than one million gross acres in the Deep Haley area and split drilling, completion, production and midstream operations. Anadarko received $310 million in cash and other consideration along with 50% of certain Chesapeake assets. It was a complicated swap but the bottom line is CHK grabbed a massive mount of acreage and continues to build a huge portfolio of gas properties. Maintain the stop at $33.50 but don't close the put if the LEAP is stopped. No change in play.

For initial commentary see Dec-9th newsletter.

Earnings schedule: Aug 2nd

Current recommendation: Hold

Position: 2009 $35 LEAP VEC-AG @ $5.30

Insurance put:
Oct $30 Put CHK-VF @ 90 cents. Profit stop $28

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MRO $65.04 +1.45 - Marathon Oil *** Stop Loss $61.00 ***

MRO hit a new four-week, post split high on Friday and appears to be shaking off the weakness in the refiner sector. I would not hold my breath that this will last. MRO did say production levels had been in the 345,000 bpd range and right in their estimates. However, they claimed they were receiving a higher price than previously expected for their production. Prices received rose +4.95 per barrel domestically and +9.79 internationally. MRO also said it purchased $2.5 billion in stock during the quarter.

I raised the stop again. Even good news can't fight falling crude prices.

For initial commentary see Nov-18th newsletter.

Earnings schedule: July 31st

Current recommendation: Buy above $60

Position 2009 $100 LEAP Call VXM-AT @ $12.60
Cost update: Expired March put +65 cents to $13.25
Post split: (2) 2009 $50 LEAP Calls VXM-AJ @ $6.62

Insurance put: 2/18/07
Position: March $85 PUT MRO-OQ @ 65 cents. expired

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SLB $89.64 +1.31 Schlumberger *** Stop Loss $85.50 ***

SLB hit a new high on Friday one week ahead of its earnings scheduled for next Friday. I raised the stop again in case earnings are a disappointment. BHI warned last week so SLB could be in danger.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings schedule: July 20th

Current recommendation: hold

LEAP Position:
1/2 9/11/06 @ $8.60
1/2 9/12/06 @ $8.00
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VWY-AN @ $8.30
Cost update for expired Jan put +2.00 = $10.30
Cost update for expired June put +1.15 = $11.45

Insurance Put: 9/18
Position: Jan $50 Put SLB-MJ @ $2.00, expired

Insurance put:
Position: June $70 PUT SLB-RN @ $1.15, expired

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SUN $84.05 +1.97 - Sunoco *** Stop Loss $81.00 ***

SUN continued its leisurely 3-week climb but refiners should be the first to crack once gasoline prices break that $2.20 support level. Maintain the raised stop at $78.50.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings schedule: Aug 1st

Current recommendation: Hold

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VUN-AN @ $13.50
Cost update expired Jan put +2.40 = $15.90
Cost update expired June put +0.85 = $16.75

Insurance Put:
Position: Jan $55 Put SUN-MK @ $2.40, expired

Insurance put:
Position: June $70 PUT SUN-RN @ 85 cents, expired.


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Non-Energy Positions
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BZH - $23.62 -.36 - Beazer Homes *** STOP LOSS $25.00 ***

Beazer rebounded off its new 52-week lows at $21.80 on the general strength in the housing sector on Friday when it was rumored Warren Buffett was interested in Honvnanian. Earnings were announced for the 26th. Hopefully they will confess their crimes and head for single digits.

Beazer has several suits pending, some seeking class action status on charges it practiced predatory lending, filed illegal loan documents and manipulated its stock price.

For initial commentary see March-31st newsletter

Earnings schedule: July 26th

Position: Jan-08 $25 PUT WZF-ME @ $3.10
 

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