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XLE - $74.00 - Oil Drop Hedge Put *** Stop Loss $75.50 ***

The XLE declined to hit our entry target of $72 at Wednesday's open and then immediately rebound with oil to a new high on Friday. I set a stop loss at $75.50

Breakdown trigger: $72, hit 7/18

Buy Dec $70 Put XBT-XR @ $3.00

Initial profit target: XLE $67, secondary target XLE $64

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RIMM - $230.50 +2.98 - Research in Motion

RIMM finally moved over our upper call strike putting us fully into the money but we have a long time until this premium decays. Our target is a $30 profit once the premium decays on the $230 call. RIMM is up +62 since our entry. RIMM has now surpassed Motorola in market cap. The RIMM President and CEO thanked Apple last week for helping to grow their BlackBerry business. Lazaridis said the whole industry benefited from the iPhone buzz from the announcement to the delivery. He credited Apple for helping them add 1.2 million customers in the quarter before the iPhone was delivered.

For initial commentary see the July 1st newsletter.

Earnings schedule: Sept 27th.

Breakdown trigger: $168.00 hit 6/25

Call spread:
Position: LONG 2009 $180 LEAP Call VHO-AP @ $32.60
Position: SHORT 2009 $230 LEAP Call VHO-AF @ $10.47

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NOV - $117.70 +5.85 - National Oilwell ** Stop Loss $115.00 **

No news for NOV but new highs are made almost daily. Earnings are Wednesday. I raised the stop again to take us out with a profit should oil crash or NOV stumble over earnings.

For initial commentary see the July 1st newsletter.

Earnings Schedule: July 25th

Breakdown trigger: $100 hit 6/27
(no leaps)

Position: Feb 2008 $110 Call NOV-BB @ $10.50

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GSF - $74.74 +1.69 - GlobalSantaFe *** Stop Loss $71 ***

GSF rebounded sharply after reporting that their worldwide SCORE (Summary of Current Offshore Rig Economics) jumped +2.4% for the month to 133.2. The SCORE base was established at the top of the 1980-81 peak of the offshore drilling cycle. The peak was set as 100 and a SCORE over 100 means drilling today is more profitable than the 1981 peak. This announcement fired up the drillers and Schlumberger's earnings on Friday helped fuel the flames.

For initial commentary see the July 1st newsletter.

Earnings schedule: Aug 1st

Breakdown target: $70 Hit 6/27

Position: 2010 $80 LEAP Call WEJ-AP @ $10.10

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CNQ $73.44 +2.67 Canadian National Res ** Stop Loss $70.00 **

The rebound continued on no news. I raised the stop again to protect the position.

For initial commentary see the July 1st newsletter.

Earnings schedule: Aug 2nd

Breakdown target: $65 Hit 6/25

Position: Jan 2009 $70 LEAP Call OKR-AN @ $9.50

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NOK - 29.28 -0.63 Nokia *** Stop Loss $28.50 ***

Nokia floundered after Motorola and Erickson disappointed on earnings. Motorola's are not until August 2nd but we may not be around by then. I pegged the stop to take us on any further weakness. No reason to stick around if the sector is going to tank.

For initial commentary see June 24th newsletter

Earnings schedule: Aug 2nd

Breakdown trigger: $28.00 Hit 6/21

Position: 2010 $30 LEAP Calls WIK-AF @ $4.90

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BRS - $51.80 -1.26 Bristow Group ** Stop Loss $50.50 **

Bristow gave up its gains and retreated from the new high set on Monday. No news and I raised the stop again.

For initial commentary see June 17th newsletter

Earnings schedule: Aug 3rd

Bristow has no LEAPS

Breakout trigger: $50.50 hit 6/14

Position: Dec $50 Calls BRS-LJ @ $5.00

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MDR - $91.37 -0.72 - McDermott Intl ** Stop Loss $88 **

Barrons said nice things about MDR last weekend and the stock hit a new high on Monday only to stall the rest of the week. The earnings date was announced for August 8th. I raised the stop loss just in case.

For initial commentary see June 17th newsletter

Earnings schedule: August 8th

Breakout trigger: $78.00 Hit 6/11

Position: 2009 $80 LEAP Call OYZ-AP @ $9.80

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HOS - $40.37 +1.27 - Hornbeck Offshore *** Stop $39.50 ***

No news on HOS other than the announcement of an earning date but the rebound continued. A new high was reached on Friday at $42. I raised the stop again to take us out on any future weakness.

For initial commentary see June 10th newsletter

Earnings schedule: August 2nd

Breakdown trigger: $39.00 hit 6/08

Position: 2009 $40 LEAP Call ZIG-AH @ $8.00

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HDY - $2.89 -0.09 Hyperdynamics Corp *** Stop Loss $2.75 ***

Still waiting for the contract to be ratified. The special session of the Guinea National Assembly began on July 6th and the contract has been given priority status. It was expected to become a special law by the end of last week but it has not happened yet. We continue to wait. I did add a stop loss.

The Guinea National Assembly is going to ratify the HDY contract for revenue sharing before the current special session closes. This contract when ratified will become a "Project of Law" or super contract that cannot in normal circumstances be broken. Once the contract is ratified HDY will begin a rapid development phase on its 31,000 square mile lease.

For initial commentary see June 3rd newsletter.

Position: HDY stock @ $2.44

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TSO - $54.38 -4.82 - Tesoro *** Stopped $56.50 ***

The TSO weakness turned into a rout and we were stopped out at $56.50 on the 17th. Once the price fell below our strike at $60 the profit eroded quickly. I am pushing the stops higher on the other plays to avoid this profit shrinkage.

For initial commentary see April 29th newsletter.

Earnings schedule: Aug 7th

Breakout target: $55 hit 10:AM on 4/23/07

Position: 2009 $120 LEAP Call ZGC-AD @ $16.68 stop 7/17 $9.60
Post split: (2) 2009 $60 LEAP Calls ZGC-AL @ $8.34
Exit $9.60 on 7/17 for $1.26 profit x 2 post split or $2.52.

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ATW $68.90 -2.44 - Atwood Oceanics ** Stop Loss $67 **

ATW got whacked again with a sharp drop on Tuesday. No news but I did add a stop loss just in case this continues.

Interesting article in Investors Business Daily regarding Atwood.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/070418/newamer.html?.v=1

For initial commentary see April 29th newsletter.

Earnings schedule: Aug 8th

Breakout trigger $60.50 hit 4/23/07
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call ZFJ-AN @ $6.50

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BHP - $67.03 -0.93 BHP Billiton *** Stop Loss $64.50 ***

BHP is consolidating around $66 and taking a well deserved rest. Reportedly BHP passed on the idea of buying Alcoa at its huge premium due to rumor news. Freeport McMoran was rumored to be a takeover target but there was no confirmation. The rumor mill is very active in this sector. I added a stop loss

The $40 billion gain in market cap by BHP in the last two months has taken them off the potential hit list for a China takeover. With a market cap of $200 billion today they are too pricey even for China.

For initial commentary see March 17th newsletter.

Earnings schedule: Aug 22nd

Breakout target $43.50 hit March 12th

Position: JAN-09 $50 LEAP Call ZPK-AJ @ $6.00

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CCJ - $46.94 -3.71 - Cameco *** Stopped $47.50 ***

It appears hell does have cold days. Uranium prices fell for the second consecutive week after nearly two years of constant rises. Uranium producers quickly felt radioactive as investors dumped them. We were stopped out on Tuesday for a nice profit.

In April Cameco projected sales would be 50% higher in 2007.

Worldwide there are 24 new reactors being built, 41 on the drawing boards and 113 in the proposal stages. If all were built it would be a 50% increase from the 435 reactors now in operation. In 2006 the world consumed 180 million pounds of uranium but produced only 103 million pounds. The rest came from Russian nuclear warheads being decommissioned. The supply from those warheads is dwindling and will be completely gone by 2015.

For initial commentary see March 10th newsletter.

Earnings Schedule: July 30th

Breakout trigger: $37.50 Hit March 7th

Position: JAN-09 $40 LEAP Call ZBK-AH @ $7.80
Exit 7/17 @ $13.70, profit of $5.90

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PTR - $154.28 -4.50 - Petrochina *** Stopped $152.50 ***

Tuesday's -$4 opening drop took us out of this very profitable position. It was time and we should be celebrating instead of whining. We entered the position for $10.70 back in March, (8.45 after the cost reduction play) and had you exited on the stop that LEAP was worth $40.90. Not a bad payday.

For initial commentary see March 10th newsletter.

Breakdown target:
$110 1/2 position - hit Mar-5th

Position: JAN-09 $120 LEAP Call ZJK-AD @ $10.70, exit $40.90 7/18
Cost reduction 4/19 $10.70 -2.25 = $8.45
Exit 7/18 @ $40.90 for profit of $32.45 !!

Cost reduction play:
Position: stopped @ $114 4/19
Short June $105 Put PTR-RA @ $3.40, exit $1.15. +2.25

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CHK $36.49 +0.17 - Chesapeake Energy ** Stop loss $34.00 **

CHK continued to rise after the Anadarko deal on no further news. CHK is confounding the gas skeptics with its continued gain. I left the stop at $34. If stopped DO NOT close the put. No change in play.

For initial commentary see Dec-9th newsletter.

Earnings schedule: Aug 2nd

Current recommendation: Hold

Position: 2009 $35 LEAP VEC-AG @ $5.30

Insurance put:
Oct $30 Put CHK-VF @ 90 cents. Profit stop $28

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MRO $61.26 -3.78 - Marathon Oil *** Stopped $61.00 ***

MRO finally caved in to the refiner pressure on Friday and triggered our stop for a very nice profit. We entered the position at $6.62 (post split) and exited the play at $61 when the option was trading at $19.20. We had two options post split doubling the profit.

For initial commentary see Nov-18th newsletter.

Earnings schedule: July 31st

Current recommendation: Buy above $60

Position 2009 $100 LEAP Call VXM-AT @ $12.60
Cost update: Expired March put +65 cents to $13.25
Post split: (2) 2009 $50 LEAP Calls VXM-AJ @ $6.62 Ex $19.70 7/20
Exit 7/20 for $19.70 and profit of $13.08 x 2 = $26.16

Insurance put: 2/18/07
Position: March $85 PUT MRO-OQ @ 65 cents. expired

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SLB $96.68 +7.04 Schlumberger *** Closed $94.00 ***

Outstanding! SLB beat the street by a mile, $1.26 vs estimates of 95 cents. Strength in their worldwide business offset weakness in gas drilling in North America, especially Canada where BHI took a beating. Profits were up +47%.

I am closing SLB at this level and taking profits. We have several service companies reporting earnings next week and we have already seen a warning from BHI. If Haliburton stinks up the sector on Monday we could give back a lot of our profits waiting for a stop. We had a nice run and a fitting finish. Take profits and relax.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings schedule: July 20th

Current recommendation: hold

LEAP Position:
1/2 9/11/06 @ $8.60
1/2 9/12/06 @ $8.00
Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VWY-AN @ $8.30
Cost update for expired Jan put +2.00 = $10.30
Cost update for expired June put +1.15 = $11.45
Exit 7/22 @ $34.00 for profit of $22.35

Insurance Put: 9/18
Position: Jan $50 Put SLB-MJ @ $2.00, expired

Insurance put:
Position: June $70 PUT SLB-RN @ $1.15, expired

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SUN $76.24 -7.81 - Sunoco *** Stopped $81.00 ***

I am sure glad I raise that stop last week to $81. Once refiners started to fall it was a sharp drop for SUN. We got out at the beginning of the drop and did not wait around for the bottom. We had been in that position nearly a year and time decay and a couple of hits from put insurance along with the $5 drop early in the week knocked our profits back to just over $2 but at least it was a profit.

For initial commentary see Oct-14th newsletter

Earnings schedule: Aug 1st

Current recommendation: Hold

LEAP Position:
9/12/06 Position: 2009 $70 LEAP Call VUN-AN @ $13.50
Cost update expired Jan put +2.40 = $15.90
Cost update expired June put +0.85 = $16.75 7/17 $19.10
Exit 7/17 @ $81 stop, $19.10 for profit of $2.35

Insurance Put:
Position: Jan $55 Put SUN-MK @ $2.40, expired

Insurance put:
Position: June $70 PUT SUN-RN @ 85 cents, expired.

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Non-Energy Positions
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BZH - $19.62 -4.00 - Beazer Homes *** STOP LOSS $23.00 ***

Earnings are next Thursday and investors are fleeing like rats deserting a sinking ship. Fears of revelations with earnings and the continued implosion in the housing sector has finally knocked BZH back to the teens. We entered this position back in March and suffered through two "bottoms" in the homebuilders while waiting for the eventual crash. I will probably revise the stop on Wednesday just in case Beazer says something positive in Thursday's earnings. I just want to trail it down with hopes of seeing single digits but at this point I don't want to give back profits. This is a put not a leap.

Beazer has several suits pending, some seeking class action status on charges it practiced predatory lending, filed illegal loan documents and manipulated its stock price.

For initial commentary see March-31st newsletter

Earnings schedule: July 26th

Position: Jan-08 $25 PUT WZF-ME @ $3.10
 

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