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XLE $75.11 Energy Spyder - PUT *** stop at $76.50 ***

Still waiting for that drop and 74 is definitely the support level that has to crack. One more dip by crude should do it. The weak refiners and integrated oils are already holding the XLE back.

Breakdown Trigger: $74.75 hit 9/25/07

Position: Dec $73 Put XBT-XU @ $3.20


MDR - $58.19 +4.11 McDermott International

Nothing holding McDermott back. New highs every day and no pause in sight on no news. I am canceling the insurance put entry.

Breakout trigger: $53, hit 9/20

Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call OYZ-AL @ $9.00


UPL $64.71 +2.67 - Ultra Petroleum *** Stop Loss $52 ***

Investors can't seem to get enough UPL after they announced in the prior week the sale of their property in China. I continue to expect some profit taking when the news wears off.

Ultra Petroleum presentation

Breakdown target: $52.50 Hit 8/30

Position: Jan 2009 $60 LEAP Call OZH-AL @ $8.00


CHK $36.87 +1.61 Chesapeake Energy

CHK is nearing its high at $38 and has been moving up quickly since the CEO resumed his insider buying. With gas holding over $7 investors must believe it will be higher later this winter. The October insurance put we bought months ago is now worthless and hopefully will remain worthless. I deleted it from the portfolio list.

CHK was recently upgraded to 5 stars by Morningstar.

Link to Enercom presentation

Position: 2010 $35 LEAP Call WZY-AG @ $6.60 ** No Stop on LEAP **

Insurance put:
Oct $30 Put CHK-VF @ 90 cents. Profit stop $28


HP $33.09 +0.26 Helmerich & Payne *** Stop Loss $27.50 ***

HP is still holding over support at $32.75 on no news. The warning from Nabors on Friday on lower rig activity is probably going to weigh on HP next week. Let's buy a November $30 put for insurance.

Insurance put: Put trigger HP at $32.50
Buy Nov $30 HP-WF. Stop $28.50

Enercom presentation here

Position: Jan 2009 $35 LEAP Call ZQA-AG @ $4.50


HERO $27.04 +0.93 Hercules Offshore ** Stop Loss $24.00 **

No news but four days of advances after Monday's dip. Maintain the stop at $24.

Enercom presentation

Position: 2008 April $30 Call HIQ-DF @ $3.00


GLBL $27.74 +1.98 Global Industries ** Stop Loss $18.50 **

Nice move! GLBL finally found some traction and sprinted past the resistance at $26. The only news was the announcement of their earnings on Nov-1st. An analyst mentioned the underwater sector favorably but did not mention GLBL. We will take the gains even if they were not meant for us. No change in play.

Earnings schedule: Nov-1st

Enercom presentation

Position: 2008 March $25 Call GQO-CE @ $3.30


BHP - $79.52 +0.92 BHP Billiton ** Stop Loss $60.00 **

A needed rest for BHP came with the China markets closed for the holidays. Credit Suisse also downgraded them to a hold. BHP also bought 14 licenses to search for oil and gas offshore of the Falklands in the South Atlantic. The leases give BHP 40% interest in 18 million acres of territory and names them the designated operator for any discoveries.

Breakdown target: $55 hit 8/15/07

Position: 2010 $70 LEAP Call LPH-AN @ $9.00


CCJ - $42.56 -3.69 Cameco ** Stop Loss $30 **

CCJ was beaten severely and gave back two weeks of gains on no news. There was a couple articles playing down the new applications for nuke plants but none of them had any direct mention of CCJ. I suspect it was just profit taking. They did announce an earnings date of Oct-21st. No change in play.

Earnings schedule: Oct-31st

Breakdown target: $35 Hit 8/16/07

Position: 2010 $50 LEAP Call LTA-AJ @ $7.20

Non-Energy Positions

IWM $84.13 +4.09 Russell 2000 iShares ** Stop Loss $79.50 **

Now we are rocking! The Russell finally caught fire and I suspect we will see a real breakout over the next couple weeks. However, the coming week is one we need to worry about. No material news, lots of warning potential and a possible correction when China reopens on Monday. Maintain the new stop.

Position: Jan $80 Call IOW-AB @ $4.25


RIMM - $113.37 +14.82 - Research in Motion

RIMM exploded on short covering after earnings and the Goldman Sachs upgrade to its conviction list. I am closing it today and we will exit with a nice profit.

For initial commentary see the July 1st newsletter.

Earnings schedule: Oct 4th

Breakdown trigger: $56.00 hit 6/25

Call spread pre-split:
Position: LONG 2009 $180 LEAP Call VHO-AP @ $32.60
Position: SHORT 2009 $230 LEAP Call VHO-AF @ $10.47

Call spread post-split: (3:1)
LONG (3) 2009 $60 LEAP Call VHO-AL @ $10.87, exit $60.00 x3
SHORT (3) 2009 $76 LEAP Call VHO-AU @ $ 3.62, exit $48.55 x3


BSC $131.58 +8.77 - Bear Stearns *** Stop Loss $110 ***

BSC rocketed even higher on the positive outlooks from numerous banking stocks. The close on Friday was a new two-month high! Outstanding! Our patience finally paid off. I would love to see resistance at $160 tested before year-end. I raised the stop but let's hope we never see it.

Breakdown target $100 hit 8/06/07

Position: 2010 $120 LEAP Call YBO-AD @ $25.60


CFC - $20.25 +1.24 Countrywide Financial ** Stop Loss $15 **

CFC is so close to breaking resistance at $21. I am hoping their report on financings in September is up strongly and they have good things to say about the corporate credit market. Once we move over $21 I am hoping to see a lot of short covering. The message boards are full of bankruptcy comments from those who don't actually read the current events. We will steam roll right over them once it is confirmed that CFC had a good September.

CEO Mozilo has a 10B5-1 stock sales plan that was put in force in October 2006 and it expires on Oct-8th 2007. The plan requires that any unsold shares that were not sold due to price limits be sold between Oct-8th and 12th of 2007 under no limits. The press release did not say how many shares were left to be sold. The plan did not sell any shares in August and September because the price was under the plan limits.

Breakdown target $20.00 hit 8/15/07

Position: 2010 $30 LEAP Call YJD-AF @ $7.00

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