Option Investor
Play Updates

In Play Updates and Reviews

HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version

XLE $77.17 +2.06 Energy Spyder - PUT *** stop at $76.50 ***

That last spike higher on Wednesday got us. I am still going to be short crude on every dip but after two tries on the XLE I am giving up on this position. Even when oil was weak the strength in the service sector was supporting the XLE.

Breakdown Trigger: $74.75 hit 9/25/07

Position: Dec $73 Put XBT-XU @ $3.20, exit $1.96 10/10, -1.24

***********************

MDR - $60.87 +2.68 McDermott International

The -$5 dip on Thursday barely slowed MDR and the rebound was almost instant. No news and no earnings date yet.

Breakout trigger: $53, hit 9/20

Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call OYZ-AL @ $9.00

********************

UPL $66.49 +1.78 - Ultra Petroleum *** Stop Loss $52 ***

Still no weakness in UPL after 4-weeks of gains. Eventually this spike has to fade. No news and no earnings date.

Ultra Petroleum presentation

Breakdown target: $52.50 Hit 8/30

Position: Jan 2009 $60 LEAP Call OZH-AL @ $8.00

*********************

CHK $37.49 +0.62 Chesapeake Energy

CHK continued to creep up on resistance at $38 on no news other than the announcement of the earnings date. As long as gas prices remain around $7 there is plenty of upside potential. The producers are doing a good job with their curtailments in supporting prices.

Earnings schedule: Nov 7th

Link to Enercom presentation

Position: 2010 $35 LEAP Call WZY-AG @ $6.60 ** No Stop on LEAP **

Insurance put:
Oct $30 Put CHK-VF @ 90 cents. Profit stop $28

************************

HP $32.98 -.11 Helmerich & Payne *** Stop Loss $27.50 ***

HP has gone dormant on the Nabors warning. The dip on Monday was enough to trigger the insurance put so we are covered against any further declines.

Enercom presentation here

Position: Jan 2009 $35 LEAP Call ZQA-AG @ $4.50

Insurance put:
Position: Nov $30 HP-WF. @ .50, Stop $28.50

*************************

HERO $27.70 +0.66 Hercules Offshore ** Stop Loss $24.00 **

Hero continues to improve and earnings have been scheduled for Oct-30th. No other news. Maintain the stop at $24.

Enercom presentation

Position: 2008 April $30 Call HIQ-DF @ $3.00

*************************

GLBL $26.05 -1.69 Global Industries ** Stop Loss $18.50 **

GLBL gave back most lf last week's gains after Acergy failed to hit estimates for the quarter. The booming sector was quickly cooled. No change in play.

Earnings schedule: Nov-1st

Enercom presentation

Position: 2008 March $25 Call GQO-CE @ $3.30

********************

BHP - $84.75 +5.23 BHP Billiton ** Stop Loss $60.00 **

Off to the races again when Chinese markets rallied after their weeklong holiday. Thursday was another new high on no news.

Breakdown target: $55 hit 8/15/07

Position: 2010 $70 LEAP Call LPH-AN @ $9.00

*******************

CCJ - $43.85 +1.30 Cameco ** Stop Loss $30 **

This would be a new entry point for CCJ with a breakout over $44. The decline from the prior week has passed and a rebound is in progress. No news and no change in play.

Earnings schedule: Oct-31st

Breakdown target: $35 Hit 8/16/07

Position: 2010 $50 LEAP Call LTA-AJ @ $7.20


****************************
Non-Energy Positions
****************************

IWM $83.82 -.31 Russell 2000 iShares ** Stop Loss $79.50 **

The Russell paused with the rest of the market to wait for earnings to start next week. A breakout here could double our gains. Maintain the new stop.

Position: Jan $80 Call IOW-AB @ $4.25

**************************

BSC $123.16 +8.42 - Bear Stearns *** Stop Loss $110 ***

Unbelievable volatility for two weeks past earnings. +$8 the prior week, -$8 this week. Good thing we don't have a tight stop! With 15+ financials reporting this week we could get a sector bounce. The pessimism is dripping off the banks so an upside surprise is possible.

Breakdown target $100 hit 8/06/07

Position: 2010 $120 LEAP Call YBO-AD @ $25.60

*********************

CFC - $18.74 -1.51 Countrywide Financial ** Stop Loss $17 **

CFC reported loan volumes for September that were 44% below Sept-06 but that should not be a surprise to anyone. The speed at which Countrywide has shifted its loan focus to conforming loans surprised analysts. I raised the stop based on the stock probe against Mozilo.

The biggest news was a probe into stock sales by the CEO. Investigators are claiming he manipulated his announced stock sale program to liquidate $138 million in Countrywide stock as the subprime problem came into focus. Mozilo was still selling stock as of Friday.

Breakdown target $20.00 hit 8/15/07

Position: 2010 $30 LEAP Call YJD-AF @ $7.00
 

Leaps Trader Update Archives