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XOM - $86.85 -$1.08 Exxon Mobil

Exxon rebounded early in the week but was caught in the broad based profit taking on Thr/Fri to decline to $86.50. There was no specific news. I am still happy with the position at the 100-day average and our worst-case risk should be to the 200-day average at about $83.

Breakdown trigger: $88 Hit 11/01

Position: 2009 $100 LEAP Call ODU-AT @ $7.90


CAM - $95.42 -$3.18 Cameron International

CAM declined slightly on no news but given the market crash I am perfectly happy with the minor dip in CAM. Still resting above the 50-day average and ready to run if the market recovers.

Breakdown target: $95 Hit 10/30

Position: 2009 $100 LEAP Call OKA-AT @ $18


SLB $94.76 -4.06 - Schlumberger

No specific news on SLB and resistance at $100 is still firm as is support at the 100-day average at $95. Risk to $85.

Breakdown target: $95.00 hit Oct-22nd

Position: 2009 $100 LEAP Call VWY-AT @ $15.60


CVX $87.26 -1.22 - Chevron

No specific news on Chevron and support at $87 held again on last week's market crash. No stop today.

Breakdown trigger: $87 hit Oct-22nd

Position: 2009 $100 LEAP Call VCH-AT @ $6.40


OII $69.00 -3.82 Oceaneering International

OII declined on the weak market after reporting a +40% increase in earnings the prior week. No specific news. Strong support at $70 and no change in the play.

Earnings Nov-1st: +40%

Breakdown trigger: $72 hit on Oct-22nd

Position: APR $80 Call OII-DP @ $5.40


WHQ $55.77 -3.91 W-H Energy Services ** Stopped $53 **

WHQ broke support at $55 and continued to decline ever so slowly but still enough to trigger our stop. Better fish on the line now so no love lost here.

April $65 Call WHQ-DM @ $5.10, exit @ $2.95 11/07, -2.15


NOV $71.13 -2.86 - National Oilwell Varco

Still moving sideways in an ugly market. Strong support at $70 still holding. No specific news for NOV.

Breakout Trigger: $80, hit 10/11/07

Position: 2008 May $90 Call NON-ER @ $7.20


MDR - $56.13 -4.39 McDermott International

MDR reported earnings that rose +37% but analysts were expecting a little more on the revenue side. Earnings were 63 cents and estimates were for 54 cents. Shares dropped -5% after the announcement. The consolidated order backlog rose to $9.3 billion compared to $8.6 billion in the earlier quarter. No other news.

Earnings schedule: Nov 8th, +37%

Breakout trigger: $53, hit 9/20

Position: 2009 $60 LEAP Call OYZ-AL @ $9.00


UPL $67.10 -1.10 - Ultra Petroleum *** Stop Loss $52 ***

Ultra traded sideways the week after earnings and is respecting support at $67. UPL is just passing time until the winter draws on natural gas begin and the price of gas rises. UPL is a pure gas play and the lowest cost producer. Ultra currently has some production shut in to prevent backing up in the pipelines and lowering the prices. They are still running at a +30% rate y-o-y even with the shut ins. No specific post earnings news.

Ultra Petroleum presentation

Breakdown target: $52.50 Hit 8/30

Position: Jan 2009 $60 LEAP Call OZH-AL @ $8.00


CHK $40.22 +0.15 Chesapeake Energy

CHK continues to move higher even though earnings were less than expected. Falling gas prices and rising costs along with voluntary shut ins pressured profits. Still, CHK raised production estimates for both 2007 and 2008 sending the stock price to a new high.

Earnings: Nov 7th -34%, beat by 3 cents.

Link to Enercom presentation

Position: 2010 $35 LEAP Call WZY-AG @ $6.60
10/28 Price update: Expired Oct Put +90 cents, $7.50

Insurance put:
Oct $30 Put CHK-VF @ 90 cents. Expired


HP $32.16 +.32 Helmerich & Payne *** Stop Loss $27.50 ***

HP continued its rebound on no news and garnered no complaints from us. Any stock that can rise in this market on no news is a winner in my book. We still have the insurance put so we are covered against any further declines for one more week.

Earnings scheduled for Nov-15th

Enercom presentation here

Position: Jan 2009 $35 LEAP Call ZQA-AG @ $4.50

Insurance put:
Position: Nov $30 HP-WF. @ .50, Stop $28.50


HERO $26.10 -1.75 Hercules Offshore ** Stop Loss $24.00 **

No news but HERO gave back half of the prior week's gains. Still trading in a holding pattern between $25 and $28. Maintain the stop at $24.

Earnings Oct-30th. +63%

Enercom presentation

Position: 2008 April $30 Call HIQ-DF @ $3.00


BHP - $75.81 -7.92 BHP Billiton ** Stop Loss $60.00 **

That was really painful. BHP is taking a run at RTP for a massive $100 billion price tag. RTP turned down the offer and BHP stock crashed on worries it would go hostile and spend too much money acquiring RTP. The big drop on Thursday was -$8 otherwise it was volatility as usual with a wide range of sideways movement. Strong support here at $75 and walking away from the deal would provide an instant $10 spike.

Breakdown target: $55 hit 8/15/07

Position: 2010 $70 LEAP Call LPH-AN @ $9.00


CCJ - $47.23 -.36 Cameco ** No Stop **

No news and no movement but that is much better than the drops we saw in some energy plays. The longer term trend is still positive. No stop.

Earnings: Oct-31st

Breakdown target: $35 Hit 8/16/07

Position: 2010 $50 LEAP Call LTA-AJ @ $7.20

Non-Energy Positions


Covered LEAP Calls

LVS - $115.91 -0.86 Las Vegas Sands

Nice rebound from the Thursday dip to bring us back to the starting point on this play. All the news is good and they announced on Thursday the planned Dec-20th opening of the Palazzo Hotel and Casino in Vegas. Reportedly this will be the most luxurious hotel in Vegas. No change in play.

Covered LEAP Call

LONG: 100 Shares LVS currently $117
SHORT: 2009 $140 LEAP Call ZAU-AY @ $20.00 No Stop

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