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USO $93.79 +3.79 - United States Oil Fund *** Short ***

This play is based on the potential for selling in the oil futures as Crude Futures expire next Tuesday. In the April expiration cycle in March the price of crude fell -$10 in the 48 hours following expiration.

Company Info:

United States Oil Fund, LP (USOF) is a commodity pool that issues limited partnership interests or units that may be purchased and sold on the American Stock Exchange (the AMEX). The Company invests in futures contracts for light, sweet crude oil and other types of crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, natural gas and other petroleum-based fuels that are traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), International Currency Exchange (ICE) Futures or other United States and foreign exchanges (collectively, Oil Futures Contracts). It holds interests in other oil-related investments such as cash-settled options on Oil Futures Contracts, forward oil contracts, and oil-based over-the-counter transactions. As of December 31, 2007, USOF held 4,754 Oil Futures Contracts traded on the NYMEX and 300 Oil Futures Contracts traded on the ICE Futures. The Company operates under full management control of its sole General Partner, Victoria Bay Asset Management, LLC (the General Partner).

Upside trigger: $90.00 Hit 4/15

Position: May $87 PUT UNA-QI @ $2.70

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SPWR $89.33 +1.57 - SunPower

That gain above is very misleading. SPWR gained $13 from Tue/Wed but gave it back on Thursday on earnings concerns. There was also a bill introduced to extend key tax credits but only for one year. Friday was a recovery day to make positive for the week.

SPWR earnings were 15 cents compared to 2 cents in the comparison quarter. After items that was 39 cents when analysts were expecting 35 cents. Revenue rose 92%. The problem was a comment by the company that Q2 was going to be similar to Q1. Traders immediately thought sales were slowing. It was later qualified by a Jefferies analyst that it was just a timing problem as big projects were brought online and revenue counted. SPWR raised guidance again to $1.3-$1.375 billion from the $1.2-$1.3 billion forecast in Q1. It also raised its profit per share guidance by 10 cents to $2.10-$2.20. Revenue is expected to rise by 40% in 2009.

Cypress, which owns 56% of SPWR common stock and 90% of the voting stock, received a ruling from the IRS that would allow CY to spin off SPWR before Nov-09.

Breakout trigger: $66 (hit 3/24))

LEAP Call Spread
LLong 2010 $80 LEAP Call LMO-AP @ $20.00
Shrt 2010 $130 LEAP Call LMO-AW @ $8.70

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CY 28.08 +1.79 - Cypress Semi *** Stop Loss $21.50 ***

CY rallied to hit $30 on Thursday after posting earnings of 12 cents, which was 2 cents short of analyst expectations. The gains came on analyst upgrades, a favorable IRS ruling about spinning off PWR and comments from CY calling Q1 the bottom in chip sales. The CEO forecasted record consolidated quarterly revenue in Q2 and all of 2008. He said the company planned to increase profit at a far greater rate than sales.

CCypress, which owns 56% of SPWR common stock and 90% of the voting stock, received a ruling from the IRS that would allow CY to spin off SPWR before Nov-09.


Breakout trigger: $21.50 (hit 3/24)

Position 2010 $25 LEAP Call WSY-AE @ $4.90

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MDR - $60.35 +4.35 McDermott Intl ** Stop Loss $55 **

McDermott closed at a new 3-month high and is very close to an all time high (63.01). There was no news but I am not complaining. I will take a $4 move every week.

Breakout trigger: $51.00 (hit 3/24)

LEAP Call Spread
Long 2009 $55 LEAP Call OYZ-AK @ $8.28
Shrt 2009 $75 LEAP Call OYZ-AO @ $3.10

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TS $54.30 +3.67 - Tenaris *** Stop Loss $49 ***

Tenaris exploded for a $4 gain after a Goldman Sachs analyst made some positive comments about the sector on Wednesday. No news.

Breakdown trigger: $46.00 hit 3/19

Position: SEP $50 Call TSW-IJ @ $3.40

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HP $56.53 +4.91 Helmerich & Payne *** Stop Loss $51 ***

Amazing! HP is going vertical and still 8 days until earnings on May 1st. Calyon Securities initiated coverage with a BUY.

Earnings: Jan-31st $1.02

Position: Jan 2009 $35 LEAP Call ZQA-AG @ $4.50

Insurance put:
Position: Nov $30 HP-WF. @ .50, expired

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Non-Energy Positions
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EBAY $31.72 +0.84 - Ebay Inc *** Earnings Short ***

EBAY posted higher earnings but failed in almost every other metric. I feel good about this position since despite two monster days this week EBAY only managed an 84-cent gain. Once Google is behind us, and possible Amazon, I think EBAY will start heading down. Fortunately a gap open on Monday got us into the play cheaper.

Entry 4/14 @ 30.87

Position: May $30 PUT XBA-QF @ $1.10

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C $25.11 +1.75 - Citigroup *** Stopped $22.50 **

Citi dropped to stop us out when Wachovia stunk up the place on Monday. Citi's earnings were better than expected on Friday but that did us no good. We exited for almost a break even.

Position: 2010 $25 LEAP Call WRV-AE @ $4.00, exit $4.10, 4/14

Insurance:
Position: June $17.50 Put C-RR @ $1.25, exit .68, -.57. 4/14


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Covered LEAP Calls
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AAPL $161.04 +13.90 Apple Inc *** Covered LEAP Call ***

Apple hit a new 3-month high on Friday as the short covering hit every tech stock. Apple has earnings next Wednesday.

Position:
Long: AAPL @ open of $177.52 (Jan-14th open)
Short: 2009 $150 LEAP Call VAA-AW @ $20.80
Breakeven: AAPL @ $136.12

Position changes:
Closed $200 LEAP Short @ $9.40 ($30.00 - 9.40 = gain +20.60)
Replaced with $150 LEAP short @ $20.80
AAPL cost basis $177.52 - $41.40 (20.60 + 20.80) = 136.12
Breakeven: AAPL @ $136.12

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RIMM $123.22 -7.37 Research in Motion

RIMM benefited from the same short covering in tech stocks as Apple and closed right at a 6-mo high.

If we continue holding the position until January and let it get called away your profit will be $34.80 when the stock is called away for $110.

Alert entry 11/12 @ $102.60

Covered LEAP Call:

LONG RIMM @ $102.60 (cost $102.60 -9.10 $150 LEAP = 93.50)
SHORT 2009 $110 LEAP Call VHO-AB @ $18.30 on 1/14/08

Closed: 1/14
SHORT 2009 $150 LEAP Call XTB-AJ @ $18.50, close $9.40 +9.10
 

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