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In Play Updates and Reviews

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Energy Play Updates
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CLB $122.47 -5.50 Core Labs ** Stopped $125 ***

The decline that got us into CLB the prior week continued and took us out at $125. The +16% growth in earnings was not good enough to keep investors interested. Quick out and the drop in the short call kept us to a loss of just a buck.

Breakdown trigger: $130

Position: Long 2010 $140 LEAP Call LYM-AH @ $22.50, exit 19.60
Position: Short 2010 $175 LEAP Call LYM-AU @ $12.50, exit 10.50

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USO $93.44 -2.26 - United States Oil Fund *** Short ***

News, news news. The USO declined to $88.89 on Thursday before the end of day buy program hit. Friday's news of the Turkish bombing in Iraq just added to the short squeeze.

With the option worth only 60-cents I am willing to ride it out. Who knows we could see a return to support at $87.50.

** See portfolio listing for any stop loss **

** Target $88 for an exit **

Upside trigger: $90.00 Hit 4/15

Position: May $87 PUT UNA-QI @ $2.70

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FLS $122.62 +11.11 - Flowserve

Outstanding! Flowserve reported earnings of $1.53 per share that crushed estimates for 94 cents. Gross margins spiked 180 basis points and Flowserve raised full year guidance nearly a buck to $6.20 on the high side. Analysts were expecting $5.39. FLS rocketed $12 on the news but gave a little back on the decline in oil prices.

** See portfolio listing for any stop loss **

Breakout trigger: $110 Hit 4/16

Position: OCT $120 Call FLS-JD @ $10.40

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UPL $84.87 -1.48 - Ultra Petroleum *** Stopped $81 ***

Ultra dropped below support at $82 on Thursday's oil decline to trigger our stop at $81. I really hate to be out of UPL ahead of their earnings next Wednesday but maybe this is for the best. I can't imagine them missing earnings but I think we need to give it a rest before jumping back in.

The reason UPL has been rising is the new cross country pipeline to their property in Utah. Once completed they will be able to sell their gas for more money with access to the eastern markets. Ultra is on a capex program to spend $755 million in 2008 to boost production by 18-22%. They pln to boost production another 25-30% in 2009 over 2008 levels. 2008 estimates are for 135-140 BCF. They produced 117 BCF in 2007. 2009 estimates are for 170-175 BCF. 2010 estimates are for 200-205 BCF. That would be nearly double their 2007 production.

** See portfolio listing for any stop loss **

Breakout trigger: $83 Hit 4/14

Position: 2009 $90 LEAP Call OZH-AR @ $9.40, exit $6.90 5/01

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SPWR $82.10 -4.19 - SunPower

It has not been a good 2 weeks with a $15 decline on nothing but good news. Support at $85 broke on Thursday and we came very close to being stopped then. Maintain the stop at $80.

** See portfolio listing for any stop loss **

Breakout trigger: $66 (hit 3/24)

LEAP Call Spread
Long 2010 $80 LEAP Call LMO-AP @ $20.00
Shrt 2010 $130 LEAP Call LMO-AW @ $8.70

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CY 27.47 -.87 - Cypress Semi *** Stopped $21.50 ***

No news but our stop was hit at $27 on Thursday taking us out for a profit.

Breakout trigger: $21.50 (hit 3/24)

Position 2010 $25 LEAP Call WSY-AE @ $4.90, exit $8.20, +3.30

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MDR - $53.16 -6.74 McDermott Intl ** Stopped $55 **

Ouch! MDR warned on Tuesday that Q1 profits would be below estimates and this high flyer crashed and burned. The multi decade winter storm in Asia shut down operations in several areas for weeks and caused them to be non billable.

Fortunately we escaped with no loss.

Breakout trigger: $51.00 (hit 3/24)

LEAP Call Spread
Long 2009 $55 LEAP Call OYZ-AK @ $8.28, exit $9.00
Shrt 2009 $75 LEAP Call OYZ-AO @ $3.10, exit $3.10

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TS $53.91 +1.83 - Tenaris

After a $5 drop the prior week TS rebounded $4 from Tuesday's lows. Earnings are next week and there was no news.

Earnings are May 7th.

** See portfolio listing for any stop loss **

Breakdown trigger: $46.00 hit 3/19

Position: SEP $50 Call TSW-IJ @ $3.40

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HP $54.61 -1.23 Helmerich & Payne *** Stopped $51 ***

HP reported earnings on Thursday that missed estimates by a few cents and was instantly knocked for a $3 loss. It was immediately upgraded by Capital One and rebounded +4.54 on Friday. It was too late to save our stop at $51 and we are out with a very nice profit.

Position: Jan 2009 $35 LEAP Call ZQA-AG @ $4.50, exit $16.50

Insurance put:
Position: Nov $30 HP-WF. @ .50, expired

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Non-Energy Positions
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EBAY $31.11 -0.19 - Ebay Inc *** Earnings Short ***

EBAY continues to hug the flat line with no change but there is a slight change in sentiment appearing. Ebay was down -67 cents on Friday. We are only $1 out of the money and the option premium is only 32 cents. I say let it ride!

** See portfolio listing for any stop loss **

Entry 4/14 @ 30.87

Position: May $30 PUT XBA-QF @ $1.10


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Covered LEAP Calls
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AAPL $180.94 +11.21 Apple Inc *** Covered LEAP Call ***

No change. Over $150 we are at max profits.

Position:
Long: AAPL @ open of $177.52 (Jan-14th open)
Short: 2009 $150 LEAP Call VAA-AW @ $20.80
Breakeven: AAPL @ $136.12

Position changes:
Closed $200 LEAP Short @ $9.40 ($30.00 - 9.40 = gain +20.60)
Replaced with $150 LEAP short @ $20.80
AAPL cost basis $177.52 - $41.40 (20.60 + 20.80) = 136.12
Breakeven: AAPL @ $136.12

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RIMM $131.92 11.88 Research in Motion

No change. We are at max profits over $110.

If we continue holding the position until January and let it get called away your profit will be $34.80 when the stock is called away for $110.

Alert entry 11/12 @ $102.60

Covered LEAP Call:

LONG RIMM @ $102.60 (cost $102.60 -9.10 $150 LEAP = 93.50)
SHORT 2009 $110 LEAP Call VHO-AB @ $18.30 on 1/14/08

Closed: 1/14
SHORT 2009 $150 LEAP Call XTB-AJ @ $18.50, close $9.40 +9.10
 

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