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BP $68.40 -0.49 - BP PLC

The battle continues between BP and their Russian partners but the stock price continues to hold at support at $68. If there is a breakthrough I expect BP to rocket higher. If it goes against them then we will be stopped out at $66.

See the June-8th newsletter for news about Russia.

Recent progress announcements on the Thunder Horse platform in the Gulf suggested that BP was going to finally start producing. BP is on track to begin producing 250,000 bpd of oil and 200 million cubic feet of gas per day from Thunder Horse. The platform covers the area of three football fields and sleeps 185 workers. The gas-powered generator could power 80,000 homes. The project cost so far has been $3.5 billion. It will collect oil from 25 wells. I am hoping the Thunder Horse project will offset any further news from Russia.

Breakdown trigger: $68. Hit June 4th.

Position: 2010 $70 LEAP Call WAO-AN @ $7.30


VLO $44.84 -$1.49 - Valero *** Stopped ***

That was a quick exit. VLO dropped $10 in just six days. The decline was caused by the monster spike in oil the prior week.
Breakout trigger: $51 hit 5/19
Position: 2010 $60 LEAP YPY-AL @ $7.20, exit $5.75 6/09


PDE $45.80 +1.02 Pride International

A three-week high close on Friday. No complaints here. Jesup & Lamont initiated coverage with a buy on Thursday.

Zacks recently reiterated a buy rating on PDE on Friday based on their $9.4 billion backlog and their emergence as a pure play deepwater driller. They have sold off their non-core assets to leverage the deepwater play. The market is still valuing them as a shallow water jackup play and they are no longer in that sector. They are a strong takeover target given their small size and sector.

Position: Jan 2009 $50 Call PDE-AJ @ $3.70

I went with a Jan call instead of a LEAP because an acquisition would limit LEAP appreciation. I wanted to be close to the current price with a cheap option.


FWLT $73.57 -2.19 Foster Wheeler

That was REALLY close. FWLT dropped -$8 on market weakness to $70.10 and skillfully avoided our $70 stop. US Global Investors said FWLT was one of two companies you must have.

Breakout trigger: $71 Hit 5/13

Position: 2010 $80 LEAP Call LWM-AP @ $16.80


CRR $55.71 +1.51 - Carbo Ceramics

No news but the trend is still higher. CRR is a major take over target.

Breakout trigger: $48 Hit 5/12

Position: Dec $50 Call CRR-LJ @ $5.80


JEC $90.01 +1.34 Jacobs Engineering

Strong $4 gain on Friday put them back into the green for the week. All the engineering groups were down on the early weak market drop but Friday was a big gainer. No news.

Breakout trigger: $90 Hit May 5th

Position: 2010 $100 LEAP Call WEU-AT @ $16


PBR $67.94 -.13 Petrobras

Petrobras reportedly made another light oil discovery offshore in block BM-S-9. This is an ultra-deep field like the rest and reportedly it is a large discovery. The government officials continue to get in trouble for spilling confidential data before Petrobras does and that happened again last week. Petrobras said the Tupi field will be operational by 2010 with 100,000 bpd and will be producing 500,000 bpd by 2020. The first actual production test is set for Q1-2009. Lifting costs are expected to be $8.20 per barrel. Tupi reserves are expected to be between 5-8 billion barrels. They have only drilled two wells at Tupi and the first one took 14 months and $240 million. Now they are drilling wells in 2-3 months at $60-$80 million each. Petrobras is going out for bids on the construction of 28 new drilling rigs. They will be Brazilian made and delivered between 2013-2017.

Every dip is a buying opportunity.

** See portfolio listing for any stop loss **

Breakout trigger: $125.50 hit 4/28

Position: 2010 $150 LEAP Call YMO-AV @ $22.10


NE $65.19 +2.00 - Noble Corp

Jesup & Lamont initiated coverage with a buy rating. No other news and Noble is holding near its historic highs. No complaints!

Noble recently won a $4 billion contract to drill for Petrobras off the coast of Brazil. This is a monster payday and just one area of exploration for Noble.

** See portfolio listing for any stop loss **

Breakdown trigger $56.00 hit 4/29

Position: 2010 $70 LEAP Call YVJ-AN @ $8.10


NOV $83.16 -.41 - National Oilwell Varco

Same drop on Thursday as the rest of the sector but an equal recovery on Friday. No news.

** See portfolio listing for any stop loss **

Breakdown trigger: $67 Hit 4/30

Position: NOV $80 Call NOV-KP @ $5.40


FLS $134.73 +.39 - Flowserve

$5 gain on Friday erased losses fro earlier in the week. Still holding just below its high at $138.50 with no news.

** See portfolio listing for any stop loss **

Breakout trigger: $110 Hit 4/16

Position: OCT $120 Call FLS-JD @ $10.40

Non-Energy Positions


Covered LEAP Calls

AAPL $172.37 -13.27 Apple Inc *** Covered LEAP Call ***

This is the last update on Apple. It will be dropped from the portfolio after today. We are at max profits over $150.

Fears over Steve Jobs cancer returning is crushing AAPL stock. The decline has been so severe that Apple has got to say something next week. If it is positive I expect a giant rebound. If his cancer has returned then look out below.

Long: AAPL @ open of $177.52 (Jan-14th open)
Short: 2009 $150 LEAP Call VAA-AW (APV-AJ) @ $20.80
Breakeven: AAPL @ $136.12

Position changes:
Closed $200 LEAP Short @ $9.40 ($30.00 - 9.40 = gain +20.60)
Replaced with $150 LEAP short @ $20.80
AAPL cost basis $177.52 - $41.40 (20.60 + 20.80) = 136.12
Breakeven: AAPL @ $136.12


RIMM $132.96 +1.55 Research in Motion

This is the last update on RIMM. We are at max profits over $110 and there is no reason to carry it in the portfolio until expiration.

If we continue holding the position until January and let it get called away your profit will be $34.80 when the stock is called away for $110.

Alert entry 11/12 @ $102.60

Covered LEAP Call:

LONG RIMM @ $102.60 (cost $102.60 -9.10 $150 LEAP = 93.50)
SHORT 2009 $110 LEAP Call VHO-AB @ $18.30 on 1/14/08

Closed: 1/14
SHORT 2009 $150 LEAP Call XTB-AJ @ $18.50, close $9.40 +9.10

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