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NE $28.37 - Noble

JPM said drillers should be cash positive through 2009 but specifically called out RIG, DO and NE as having cash backlogs in excess of capital requirements through 2012.

Earnings Oct 22nd

Breakdown Trigger: $35, hit 10.6

Position: 2010 $40 LEAP Call YVJ-AJ @ $5.20


MDR $17.88 - McDermott

Still holding above strong support at $15 as we await oil prices to find a bottom. No news other than $960 million contract win.

Earnings schedule: November 15th ??

Breakdown trigger: $18, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $25 LEAP Call YAE-AE @ $3.90


FLR $39.94 - Fluor

Fluor is holding above support at $35 while the market tries to find a bottom. Earnings still two weeks away. No specific news other than contract wins for $420 million.

Earnings Nov 6th

Breakdown trigger: $37.50, hit 10/10

Position: 2010 $50 LEAP Call LLF-AX @ $10.70


NOV $25.58 - National Oilwell

Same story as the rest. Decline to strong support just over $20 and holding until the market determines direction.

Earnings schedule: Oct-23rd

Breakdown trigger: $28.50, hit 10/8

Position: May 2009 $40 Call NOV-EH @ $6.00


PBR $26.21 - Petrobras

Strong support at $20. Brazil is the strongest of the BRIC countries and Petrobras is in the strongest position of any offshore driller today. The only risk is the potential for Brazil to nationalize those new offshore finds and take them away from Petrobras.

No earnings schedule.

Breakdown trigger: $28.50, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $40 LEAP Call YMO-AH @ $7.00


PDE $17.38 - Pride

Strong support at $15, strong takeover target. Upgraded by Howard Weil to outperform.

Earnings Schedule: Oct 30th

Breakdown trigger: $20, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $25 LEAP Call YAD-AE @ $5.00


FLS $65.81 - Flowserve

Strong support at $60 and a minor uptick starting to appear. A breakout over $70 should get the ball rolling again. Tied to the market with no news.

Earnings schedule: Oct 28th

Breakdown trigger: $55

Buy April $70 Call FLS-DN, $8.50, 10/08


RIG $70.26 - Transocean

RIG has been rocking in a $25 range under $90 as the funds sold anything to raise cash. JPM said RIG has excess cash through 2012 and outstanding prospects. RIG has not mentioned any reduction in capital expenditures given their 6 year backlog of projects.

Earnings schedule: Nov-5th

Breakdown trigger: $80, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $100 LEAP Call YDR-AZ @ 13.40

Non-Energy Positions

MOS $33.66 - Mosaic

Strong support at $32. TrimTabs said selling in MOS and other hedge fund favorites may be done because hedge funds have passed their redemption window. Let's hope they are correct. Mosaic reported earnings on 10/1 that rose more than 300% over the comparison quarter. They projected earnings would continue to grow through 2009.

Entered: Oct 13th @ $36.40

Position: 2010 $50 LEAP Call LXW-AJ @ $12.80


BAC $23.24 - Bank of America

BAC rebounded off its prior week lows and held the majority of its gains. On Friday the justice Dept approved the Merrill acquisition clearing the way for BAC to move forward with the deal. The FTC has already cleared the deal. Shareholders of both companies must approve the deal and it should close in Q1. After the deal BAC will have more than $2.5 trillion in client assets and 20,000 financial advisers. The big drop in BAC shares from $32 to $22 came after BAC priced a $10 billion share offering on Oct 9th.

Earnings: Oct 6th @ 15 cents

Entered: Oct 13th @ $20.87

Position: 2010 $25 LEAP Call WBA-AE @ $5.90


GS $ 114.50 - Goldman Sachs

We survived! After plunging through our $100 trigger the prior week to a low of $74 Goldman rebounded to $128 only two days later. Profits were taken and Goldman still retained the majority of its rebound. The worst should be over for the banking sector but we need a week of no surprises before new gains can begin. Notice how I included my wishful thinking in that statement.

Earnings were Sept 16th

Breakdown Trigger: $100, hit 10/9

Position: 2010 $120 LEAP Call WSD-AD @ $23.75


JPM $39.35 - JP Morgan

JPM reported earnings on the 15th and they were still earnings not losses. Granted they were only 11 cents per share but much better than the 21-cent loss analysts had expected. Once the financial sector begins to firm I believe JPM will be a leader out of the depression.

Earnings: Oct 15th @ 11 cents

Breakdown trigger: $40. Hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $50 LEAP Call WJP-AJ @ $6.00


XLF $15.35 - Financial SPDR

The XLF continues to hold over support at $14 as we wait for a few more banks to report and the government bailouts to kick in.

Breakdown trigger: $17, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $20 LEAP Call WFS-AT @ $3.00

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