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Energy Play Updates
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FWLT $21.87 -$5.56 - Foster Wheeler *** Stopped ***

After rebounding to $31 on Monday FWLT collapsed with the market to trade under $20. That is more than a 50% drop in only three days. How do you fight market forces like that?

Earnings schedule: Nov 5th

Breakout trigger: $31, hit 10/13

Position: 2010 $40 LEAP Call LWM-AH @ $8.00, exit $4.40 10/23

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NE $25.90 -2.47 - Noble

Noble lost -$9 on market weakness but remained above our stop at $20. Earnings on Wednesday rose +20% on "unprecedented" fleet backlogs. They did say there had been a slowdown in engineering and consulting revenue but the outlook remained positive for 2008 and 2009.

Earnings Oct 22nd, $1.43 per share up from $1.18 and est of $1.33

Breakdown Trigger: $35, hit 10.6

Position: 2010 $40 LEAP Call YVJ-AJ @ $5.20

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MDR $12.64 -$5.24 - McDermott *** Stopped ***

Friday's gap down open triggered the stop at $12 but the drop in oil prices would have eventually taken us out.

Earnings schedule: November 15th ??

Breakdown trigger: $18, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $25 LEAP Call YAE-AE @ $3.90, exit $2.00, 10/24

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FLR $33.36 -$6.58 - Fluor *** Stopped ***

Gap down on Friday took us out of FLR at our stop of $30. A $6 gap on a $30 stock is 20%.

Earnings Nov 6th

Breakdown trigger: $37.50, hit 10/10

Position: 2010 $50 LEAP Call LLF-AX @ $10.70, exit $5.46 10/24

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NOV $25.50 -0.08 - National Oilwell

I am very happy with NOV and a breakeven week! Backlogs rose another billion dollars over the quarter.

Earnings: Oct-23rd $1.44, +28% compared to analyst est of $1.31

Breakdown trigger: $28.50, hit 10/8

Position: May 2009 $40 Call NOV-EH @ $6.00

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PBR $21.05 -$5.16 - Petrobras

No specific news but NOV said Petrobras was flush with cash.

No earnings schedule.

Breakdown trigger: $28.50, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $40 LEAP Call YMO-AH @ $7.00

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PDE $14.37 -$3.01 - Pride

Still bumping along on support and no news. Earnings next Thursday.

Earnings Schedule: Oct 30th

Breakdown trigger: $20, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $25 LEAP Call YAD-AE @ $5.00

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FLS $44.63 - $21.18 - Flowserve *** Stopped ***

A $28 drop on a $65 stock on a pure liquidation move. The entire sector was crushed.

Earnings schedule: Oct 28th

Breakdown trigger: $55, 10/08

Buy April $70 Call FLS-DN, $8.50, exit $6.10, 10/23

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RIG $66.26 -$4 - Transocean

Support at 63 is holding but only barely. No news and earnings still a week away.

Earnings schedule: Nov-5th

Breakdown trigger: $80, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $100 LEAP Call YDR-AZ @ 13.40


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Non-Energy Positions
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ATI $21.29 -$3.03 - Allegheny Technologies

Earnings on Thursday knocked $3 off the price despite beating the street by +7 cents. ATI lowered its forecast for the rest of 2008. Buyers jumped on the Friday morning dip despite the forecast change.

Earnings scheduled for 10/22

Breakout trigger: $26, hit 10/13

Position: 2010 $40 LEAP Call YFQ-AW @ $3.60

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MOS $27.78 -$5.88 - Mosaic *** Stopped ***

A $16 drop on a $39 stock. Same sell cycle as the rest of the stops this week.

Entered: Oct 13th @ $36.40

Position: 2010 $50 LEAP Call LXW-AJ @ $12.80, exit $6.72, 10/23

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BAC $21.07 -$2.17 - Bank of America

$4 drop in the last three days but still holding above support. Given the beating bank stocks took around the world last week I am happy with BAC performance.

Earnings: Oct 6th @ 15 cents

Entered: Oct 13th @ $20.87

Position: 2010 $25 LEAP Call WBA-AE @ $5.90

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GS $ 100.40 -13.90 - Goldman Sachs

Same story different stock. Goldman survived a $25 drop from Monday's high to close at $100. They announced on Friday they were cutting 10% of their workforce. The Fed still loves them se we need to keep the faith.

Earnings were Sept 16th

Breakdown Trigger: $100, hit 10/9

Position: 2010 $120 LEAP Call WSD-AD @ $23.75

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JPM $35.43 -$3.90 - JP Morgan

No real news. They did not file bankruptcy, they were not taken over and the Fed picked them to handle $540 billion in money market bailouts. It was a good week.

Earnings: Oct 15th @ 11 cents

Breakdown trigger: $40. Hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $50 LEAP Call WJP-AJ @ $6.00

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XLF $13.55 $-1.80 - Financial SPDR

Still holding above the Oct 10th low and hopefully next week will be an up week with the PNC transaction in the bag.

Breakdown trigger: $17, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $20 LEAP Call WFS-AT @ $3.00
 

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