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Play Updates

Rocky Week But No Drops

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Energy Play Updates


DIG $33.58 -$2.00 Proshares Ultra Oil & Gas ETF

DIG hit $38 on Wednesday before pulling back on the market weakness and the sharp $10 drop in oil prices. DIG ended its decline abruptly when it hit support at $30 and then rebounded to add $3.27 on Friday.

ETF Info:

Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index.

Position: March $50 Call DPB-CX currently $5.00


NE $29.09 -3.12 - Noble

No news, market weakness only. Support at $28, stop $23. No change in play.

Earnings Oct 22nd, $1.43 per share up from $1.18 and est of $1.33

Breakdown Trigger: $35, hit 10.6

Position: 2010 $40 LEAP Call YVJ-AJ @ $5.20


NOV $27.95 -1.94 - National Oilwell

No news, market weakness only. Stop at $20, no change in play.

Earnings: Oct-23rd $1.44, +28% compared to analyst est of $1.31

Breakdown trigger: $28.50, hit 10/8

Position: May 2009 $40 Call NOV-EH @ $6.00


PBR $26.77 -$.12 - Petrobras

No specific news. Tuesday spike in oil prices was offset by Thursday's market weakness and PBR closed even for the week. Definitely no complaints. Stop at $18.

No earnings schedule.

Breakdown trigger: $28.50, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $40 LEAP Call YMO-AH @ $7.00


PDE $17.52 -$1.27 - Pride

Market weakness only. Pride will host an analyst day on Nov-10th. $10 billion backlog. Fleet utilization was 98%.

Earnings: Oct 30th, $1.09 vs .67 Q3-07 and est of $1.03

Breakdown trigger: $20, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $25 LEAP Call YAD-AE @ $5.00


RIG $77.11 -$5.22 - Transocean

Transocean announced earnings on Wednesday that missed estimates slightly due to a problem with a drill ship off the coast of Africa. That problem has been resolved and work restarted. Transocean gained +$16 the prior week so the -$5 drop this week was not a problem. Transocean said the cooling economy meant lower costs for its employees and a slowdown in the rapidly escalating cost of equipment. They said day rates may not continue to rise as fast as recent years but would not decline as long as oil remained over $60.

Earnings schedule: Nov-5th

Breakdown trigger: $80, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $100 LEAP Call YDR-AZ @ 13.40


Non-Energy Positions


UWM $22.65 -3.11 - Russell 2000 Proshares Ultra ETF

After trading as high as $27 on Tuesday the market decline knocked off $5 but this is a long term play and I believe the bottom is behind us.

I am still expecting a strong move higher over the next three months so we have plenty of time to watch this position. If the Russell moves back to 700 the UWM should hit $50. The dollar we lost on the stop is chump change compared to our potential profit.

ETF Info:

Ultra Russell2000 ProShares seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the daily performance of the Russell 2000 Index.

Recommended 10/23 at $19.94 on the UWM
Stopped at $18 on 10/28 ($2.90, -$1.10)
Reentered at $20.50 11/29 open ($4.40)

Position: UWM $25 April Call Option ULX-DY @ avg cost $5.50


ATI $24.28 -$2.26 - Allegheny Technologies

Same story, different stock. Market weakness blunted last week's gains. No specific news.

Earnings: 10/22 -26%, $1.45 vs $1.88 year ago, $1.44 est

Breakout trigger: $26, hit 10/13

Position: 2010 $40 LEAP Call YFQ-AW @ $3.60


BAC $20.49 -$3.68 - Bank of America

Market weakness pushed financials in general back to support at October lows. No specific news of note.

Earnings: Oct 6th @ 15 cents

Entered: Oct 13th @ $20.87

Position: 2010 $25 LEAP Call WBA-AE @ $5.90


STLD $9.52 -2.40 Steel Dynamics

STLD declined on market weakness only, no specific news. Earnings are still up +61% over the last year so business is good and the economic decline is making scrap even cheaper.

Recommended 11/2 @ $11.92

Position: 2010 $15 LEAP Call WAF-AC currently $3.40


JPM $37.35 -$3.50 - JP Morgan

No specific news. Strong gain on Mon/Tue was offset by the market weakness on Thr/Fri. The banking sector is still suffering until the TARP program kicks into high gear.

Earnings: Oct 15th @ 11 cents

Breakdown trigger: $40. Hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $50 LEAP Call WJP-AJ @ $6.00


XLF $14.22 $-1.31 - Financial SPDR

Early week gains offset by Wed/Thr market weakness. No specific news.

Breakdown trigger: $17, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $20 LEAP Call WFS-AT @ $3.00


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