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Stops and 1000 Point Swings

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Wipe Out! The 1000 point market drop coupled with the 900 point swing the prior week cleaned out the portfolio but gave us entries in three new positions.


Dropped Plays


NE - Noble Corp *** Stopped ***

BUCY - Bucyrus *** Stopped ***

CMP - Compass Minerals *** Stopped ***

DIG - Proshares Ultra ETF *** Stopped ***

ENER - Energy Conversion Devices *** Stopped ***

HES - Hess Corp *** Stopped ***

HK - Petrohawk *** Stopped ***

HLX - Helix *** Stopped ***

NOV - National Oilwell *** Stopped ***

PBR - Petrobras *** Stopped ***

PDE - Pride *** Stopped ***

RIG - Transocean *** Stopped ***

XCO - Exco Resources *** Stopped ***

JPM - JP Morgan *** Stopped ***

ATI - Allegheny Tech *** Stopped ***

MOS - Mosaic *** Stopped ***

STLD - Steel Dynamics *** Stopped ***

UWM - Ultra Russell 2000 ETF *** Stopped ***


Energy Play Updates


HLX - $5.31 -3.19 Helix Energy Solutions *** Stopped ***

The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 point over the last two weeks and that coupled with a drop in oil to $48.50 stopped us out of all our positions. There was nothing specific in the news about this stock.

Breakdown trigger: $8.50, hit 11/12

Position 2010 $10 LEAP Call WAI-AB @ $3.10, exit $1.95, 11/20


ENER $21.00 -6.97 - Energy Conversion *** Stopped ***

The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 point over the last two weeks and that coupled with a drop in oil to $48.50 stopped us out of all our positions. There was nothing specific in the news about this stock.

Breakdown trigger: $35, hit 11/11

Position: 2010 $50 LEAP Call KYU-AJ @ $7.90, exit $6.50, 11/20


HES $44.87 -$10.63 - Hess Corp *** Stopped ***

The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 point over the last two weeks and that coupled with a drop in oil to $48.50 stopped us out of all our positions. There was nothing specific in the news about this stock. Refiners have gone from one extreme to the other with gasoline so cheap today there is no crack spread.

Breakout trigger: $62.50, hit 11/10

Position: 2010 $80 LEAP Call WHS-AP, $9.70, exit $4.80, 11/20


HK $16.50 -2.53 - Petrohawk Energy *** Stopped ***

The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 point over the last two weeks and that coupled with a drop in oil to $48.50 stopped us out of all our positions. There was nothing specific in the news about this stock. I believe they are poised for a recover in gas prices but we need to see it first.

Breakdown trigger: $16, hit 11/6

Position: MARCH $20 Call HK-CD, $2.85, exit $2.00, 11/21
(no leaps)


XCO $5.09 -1.96 - EXCO Resources *** Stopped ***

The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 point over the last two weeks and that coupled with a drop in oil to $48.50 stopped us out of all our positions. There was nothing specific in the news about this stock.

Breakdown trigger: $7, hit 11/6

Position: JUN $12.50 Call XCO-FV, $1.25, exit .50 11/19


MOS $24.94 -7.53 - Mosaic *** Stopped ***

No specific news as Mosaic traded with the market. The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 point over the last two weeks and that coupled with a drop in oil to $48.50 stopped us out of all our positions.

Breakdown trigger: $35, hit 11/6

Position: 2010 $50 LEAP Call LXW-AJ, $7.10, exit $5.40, 11/20


DWSN $16.92 -3.38 - Dawson Geophysical

DWSN had no specific news and traded with the market. Support broke at $19 and it was a quick drop. There was no stop on DWSN because of the cheap option.

Breakdown trigger: $22.50, 11/06

Position: MAR $30 Call DVQ-CF, $2.05


BUCY $25.18 +2.43 - Bucyrus International *** Stopped ***

The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 point over the last two weeks and that coupled with a drop in oil to $48.50 stopped us out of all our positions. There was nothing specific in the news about this stock. Comments about carbon caps in an Obama administration crushed the coal sector.

Breakout trigger: $28.50, 11/4

Position: 2010 $40 LEAP Call YHB-AH, $5.40, exit $3.40, 11/20


DIG $26.30 -$3.12 Proshares Ultra Oil & Gas *** Stopped ***

The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 point over the last two weeks and that coupled with a drop in oil to $48.50 stopped us out of all our positions. There was nothing specific in the news about this stock. It was simply the drop to $48 that killed it.

Position: March $50 Call DPB-CX @ $5.00, exit $1.95, 11/20


NE $22.72 -4.17 - Noble *** Stopped ***

The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 point over the last two weeks and that coupled with a drop in oil to $48.50 stopped us out of all our positions. There was nothing specific in the news about this stock.

Earnings Oct 22nd, $1.43 per share up from $1.18 and est of $1.33

Breakdown Trigger: $35, hit 10.6

Position: 2010 $40 LEAP Call YVJ-AJ @ $5.20, exit $2.00, 11/20


NOV $21.52 -4.29 - National Oilwell *** Stopped ***

The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 point over the last two weeks and that coupled with a drop in oil to $48.50 stopped us out of all our positions. On the positive side NOV and SLB formed a joint venture to develop intelligent pipe where drillers can always know instantly about conditions at the bottom of the hole.

Earnings: Oct-23rd $1.44, +28% compared to analyst est of $1.31

Breakdown trigger: $28.50, hit 10/8

Position: May 2009 $40 Call NOV-EH @ $6.00, exit $1.50, 11/20


PBR $17.40 -$4.05 - Petrobras *** Stopped ***

Petrobras was crushed with the rest of the market despite another find of 3-4 billion barrels of oil. There is no justice.

11/12 $1.40 per share record.

Breakdown trigger: $28.50, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $40 LEAP Call YMO-AH @ $7.00, exit $1.75, 11/19


PDE $13.35 -$2.33 - Pride *** Stopped ***

The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 point over the last two weeks and that coupled with a drop in oil to $48.50 stopped us out of all our positions. There was nothing specific in the news about this stock.

Earnings: Oct 30th, $1.09 vs .67 Q3-07 and est of $1.03

Breakdown trigger: $20, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $25 LEAP Call YAD-AE @ $5.00, exit $2.00 11/20


RIG $57.08 -$13.81 - Transocean *** Stopped ***

The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 point over the last two weeks and that coupled with a drop in oil to $48.50 stopped us out of all our positions. There was nothing specific in the news about this stock.

Earnings schedule: Nov-5th

Breakdown trigger: $80, hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $100 LEAP Call YDR-AZ @ 13.40, exit $6.50, 11/20


Non-Energy Positions


CMP $47.02 -$5.03 Compass Minerals *** Stopped ***

The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 point over the last two weeks and that coupled with a drop in oil to $48.50 stopped us out of all our positions. There was nothing specific in the news about this stock.

Breakout trigger: $60.50, hit 11/10

Position: MARCH $70 Call CMP-CN @ $4.50, exit $3.10, 11/20


UWM $14.13 -3.93 - Russell 2000 Proshares Ultra ETF *** Stopped ***

The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 point over the last two weeks and that stopped us out of all our positions. I still have faith in the UWM but faith does not make the market move.

ETF Info:

Ultra Russell2000 ProShares seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the daily performance of the Russell 2000 Index.

Recommended 10/23 at $19.94 on the UWM
Stopped at $18 on 10/28 ($2.90, -$1.10)
Reentered at $20.50 11/29 open ($4.40)
Stopped at $17 on 11/13 ($2.90, -$1.50)
Reentered at $17.72 11/13 email ($3.10)

Position: UWM $25 April Call Option ULX-DY, exit $2.10 11/19


ATI $16.94 -$4.26 - Allegheny Technologies *** Stopped ***

The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 point over the last two weeks and that coupled with a drop in oil to $48.50 stopped us out of all our positions. There was nothing specific in the news about this stock.

Earnings: 10/22 -26%, $1.45 vs $1.88 year ago, $1.44 est

Breakout trigger: $26, hit 10/13

Position: 2010 $40 LEAP Call YFQ-AW @ $3.60, exit $1.65, 11/19


STLD $6.10 -2.02 Steel Dynamics *** Stopped ***

The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 point over the last two weeks and that coupled with a drop in oil to $48.50 stopped us out of all our positions. There was nothing specific in the news about this stock.

Recommended 11/2 @ $11.92

Position: 2010 $15 LEAP Call WAF-AC @ $3.40, exit $1.45, 11/20


JPM $22.72 -$11.75 - JP Morgan *** Stopped ***

The Dow traded in a 19% range of more than 1700 points over the last two weeks. The banking index fell -26%. No long position is safe under those conditions.

Earnings: Oct 15th @ 11 cents

Breakdown trigger: $40. Hit 10/6

Position: 2010 $50 LEAP Call WJP-AJ @ $6.00, exit 3.06, 11/18

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