Closed Plays


None, there were no closed plays.


Play Updates


ACGY $10.51 -0.13 -- Acergy S.A.

Something has happened to ACGY. It has ignored the market's rally. Shares have been trading sideways for seven days in a row. The trend favors a bullish breakout higher but the under performance is somewhat worrisome. More conservative traders may want to consider a higher stop loss.

I'm not suggesting new LEAPS positions at this time. Our stop is at $6.95. Our plan is to exit in the $14.50-15.00 zone. ACGY is testing resistance on its Point & Figure chart, which is currently forecasting a bullish target of $24.00.

April 25th, 2009 - entry price on ACGY @ 7.61, option @ 1.05
symbol: QLS-AB, 2010 JAN $10 LEAP call - current bid/ask $1.90/2.20
-stop loss on ACGY @ 6.95

Chart of ACGY


ACI $18.14 +1.27 -- Arch Coal Inc.

ACI is a good example of how strong the market was on Friday. The company reported earnings Friday morning. Wall Street was expecting a loss of six cents a share. ACI delivered a loss of 11 cents and missed the revenue estimates. Yet the stock rallies to new relative highs. Management believes the worst is behind them and expects improvement in the second half of 2009. I would be tempted to buy LEAPS if we saw ACI pull back and bounce from the $16.00 level again. Our long-term target is the $30 region. If you do launch new positions I would buy the 2010 January $20 calls or 2011 January $25 calls.

May 14th, 2009 - entry price on ACI @ 16.00, option @ 1.30
symbol: ACI-AE, 2010 JAN $25 LEAP call - current bid/ask .55/0.60
-stop loss on ACI @ 12.85

-or-

May 14th, 2009 - entry price on ACI @ 16.00, option @ 2.40
symbol: OSE-AF, 2011 JAN $30 LEAP call - current bid/ask $1.15/1.30
-stop loss on ACI @ 12.85

Chart of ACI:


BAC $12.51 -0.18 - Bank of America Corp.

Banks have been under performing the rest of the market. The poster child for this sideways consolidation is BAC. The only good news is that it looks like the consolidation is narrowing. Normally a stock breaks out in the direction of the previous trend, which is up. If you're interested in buying a breakout then consider waiting for a move over $14.00 or its exponential 200-dma. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

I want to remind readers that this is a long-term, two-year trade. Our exit target is the $30-40 zone.

Jan 25th, 2009 - entry price on BAC @ 6.24, option @ 2.38
symbol: VBA-AB, JAN 2011 $10 LEAP call - current bid/ask $4.75/4.95
-stop loss on BAC @ none.

Chart of BAC


CRM $45.13 +0.96 -- Salesforce.com

CRM appears to be on a one-way street labeled "up". There's hardly been a down day since July 8th. Shares are now testing resistance at the $45.00 level and after such a big rally we should expect some profit taking. I am altering our exit strategy. We want to sell half of our position at $49.00. We'll sell the second half at $57.00.

I am not suggesting new LEAPS positions at this time. We are raising our stop loss to $34.90.

April 1st, 2009 - entry price on CRM @ 30.00, option @ 4.30
symbol: CRM-AH, JAN 2010 $40 LEAP call - current bid/ask $5.60/5.80
-stop loss on CRM @ 34.90.
(note: readers have reported getting a better entry price than $4.30)

-or-

April 1st, 2009 - entry price on CRM @ 30.00, option @ 2.00
symbol: CRM-AI, JAN 2010 $45 LEAP call - current bid/ask $3.20/3.40
-stop loss on CRM @ 34.90.

Chart of CRM:


DBC $22.65 +0.02 -- PowerShares DB Commodity Index (ETF)

So far so good. I don't see any changes from my previous update. I would still consider new LEAPS positions in the $21.00-22.00 zone. Our long-term target is $30.00.

FYI: The DBC is an ETF on the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index using futures on light sweet crude oil, heating oil, aluminum, gold, corn and wheat.

July 6th, 2009 - entry price on DBC @ 21.50, option @ 4.28
symbol: VCZ-AT, 2011 JAN $20 LEAP call - current bid/ask $4.80/5.40
-stop loss on DBC @ 18.90.

-or-

July 6th, 2009 - entry price on DBC @ 21.50, option @ 2.62
symbol: VCZ-AY, 2011 JAN $25 LEAP call - current bid/ask $2.70/3010
-stop loss on DBC @ 18.90.

Chart of DBC:


DO $93.13 +0.85 -- Diamond Offshore

The market just delivered one of the biggest two week rallies in years. I was so concerned about controlling our risk and potential loss that we exited early. That's okay. DO will provide another entry point. Shares have climbed toward resistance in the $94 region. There should be another correction. However, our trigger at $72.50 is way too low. I'm making a big change and upping our trigger to buy LEAPS at $82.00. We'll put the stop at $69.95 but we could probably get away with a stop at $74.40.

-NEW- Buy the dip trigger: $82.00

BUY 2010 JANUARY $80 CALL (symbol: KWJ-AP)
-or-
BUY 2010 JANUARY $90 CALL (symbol: KWJ-AR)

Chart of DO:


DXO $4.57 +0.06 -- Deutsche Bank Double-long Oil ETN

The DXO has delivered a huge two-week move. It's probably time for a correction. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Keep your eyes open for a dip near $3.50 and its 100-dma.

Prior comments on this play:
The DXO is our long-term oil position. When we say long-term we're talking two or three years (or more). Currently the plan is to build a long-term position averaging down on dips. The $2.50 region is the sweet spot to buy the DXO. Anything under $2.50 is a gift. I want to repeat that this is not a trade. It's a multi-year investment. Currently our exit target is the $25.00 to $30.00 zone.

The Crude oil double-long ETN (exchange-traded note) offers investors two times the leveraged exposure to the monthly performance of the Deutsche Bank optimum yield crude oil index plus the monthly TBill index return.

Basically, when oil was $147 a barrel this ETN was $29.65. If oil returns to the $150 range over the next few years this ETN could rally to $30 for a 1500% return. This ETN does not expire. It can be used in IRAs and has no margin requirements like crude oil futures.

ETN Info:

Deutsche Bank ETN Fact Sheet

Deutsche Bank Pricing Description

Our plan called for buying this ETN instead of the options.

Current position in the DXO = $2.15 entry (no stop loss at this time)

Chart of DXO


ERTS $21.16 -0.51 -- Electronic Arts

ERTS has been slowly drifting higher and compared to the action on the NASDAQ this stock is definitely under performing. Investors might be nervous about earnings given the struggling consumer. Earnings are expected on August 4th. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. We'll re-evaluate post earnings.

We have two targets. We want to take part of the position off the table at $29.00. Take the rest off at $34.00.

April 20th, 2009 - entry price on ERTS @ 18.00, option @ 1.08
symbol: EZQ-AE, JAN 2010 $25 LEAP call - current bid/ask $1.05/1.15
-stop loss on ERTS @ 17.95.

-or-

April 20th, 2009 - entry price on ERTS @ 18.00, option @ 0.70
symbol: WZW-AF, JAN 2010 $30 LEAP call - current bid/ask .25/0.30
-stop loss on ERTS @ 17.95.

Chart of ERTS:


FAS $51.49 -0.19 - Direxion Fincl.Bull 3x ETF

The FAS managed to breakout over the $50.00 level last Thursday yet the major banking indices are still struggling with technical resistance at their 200-dma. The Russell 1000 financial services index ($RIFIN) is the one to watch for the FAS and the index just rallied past the 650 level. I hesitate to chase this move. Keep an eye on the $RIFIN and consider buying the FAS if the $RIFIN bounces in the 620-600 zone again. However, readers will want to consider a much higher stop loss to reduce their risk. A possible stop loss would be under the July low.

Currently we have sold one third of our position at $12.00 (post-split price of $60.00) and we plan to sell another third at $120.00. We'll re-evaluate our final target for the last third of our position as needed. FYI: On July 9th, 2009 the FAS performed a 1:5 reverse split.

Our plan called for buying the ETF instead of the options.

Current position in the FAS = $2.64 entry (stop loss: 2.64)
post-split prices are: $13.20 entry (stop loss: 13.20)

Exit 1/3 position @ 12.00 (+354%) /post-split: 60.00

Chart of FAS

Chart of RIFIN (Russell 1000 financial services)


FCX $59.82 +0.07 - Freeport McMoran

FCX completely smashed the estimates when the company reported earnings last week. Analysts were expecting a 69-cent profit. FCX delivered $1.38 per share. A couple of firms upped their price target on FCX following the news. The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $93 target. We don't want to chase this move but investors might want to consider new positions near $50.00 or its 100-dma. Our long-term target is $69.00.

June 22nd, 2009 - entry price on FCX @ 46.00, option @ 6.00
symbol: FCX-AK, 2010 JAN $55 LEAP call - current bid/ask $11.15/11.30
-stop loss on FCX @ 39.45
-or-
June 22nd, 2009 - entry price on FCX @ 46.00, option @ 10.00
symbol: OBQ-AL, 2011 JAN $60 LEAP call - current bid/ask $15.05/15.40
-stop loss on FCX @ 39.45

Chart of FCX:


FSLR $169.43 +11.65 -- First Solar

It was a big week for solar stocks and FSLR capped it off with a double-digit gain. The stock has bounced from its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level to its 50-dma, which is a good thing. I was starting to worry with the six-week sell-off. FSLR is due to report earnings on July 30th after the closing bell. We are not suggesting new positions.

This play looked like a done deal back on April 30th when shares spiked higher. Here's a repost of our April 30th, 2009 trade recap:

The covered-call trade is now at maximum profit. We bought FSLR at $128.00 and sold the 2010 $150 LEAP for $40.70. After the April 30th move odds are almost guaranteed that we'll be called out but we have to leave it in our portfolio until we are. Profit if called is $40.70 for the call option we sold and a $22 rise in the stock price (from $128 to $150). Together that's a $62.70 gain on a $128 investment (+48.9%).

Our put-spread play is a position we plan on holding until expiration in January 2010. We bought the 2010 $100 LEAP put for $32.90. We sold the 2010 $250 LEAP put for $135.70. Our net credit was $103 into our account. If you covered on April 30th by buying back the $250 LEAP put (at the time trading around $80.00) our profit would only be about $23.00. That's not our plan. We're holding this position until January 2010 and will buy back the $250 LEAP put then with the expectation it will be worth even less (as the stock continues to climb).

Covered Call position:

Long 100 shares of FSLR @ $128.00
Short 2010 $150 LEAPS Call LZL-AA @ $40.70
Profit if called is $40.70 in option premium + $22 in stock (+49%)

Put Spread position:

Long 2010 $100 LEAPS Put LQM-MT @ $32.90
Short 2010 $250 LEAPS Put LZL-MJ @ $135.70, net credit $103

Currently the 2010 Jan. $100 put is worth (bid) $3.40.
The 2010 Jan. $250 put is worth $ 85.20.
If you're curious the 2010 Jan. $150 call is at $36.00.

Chart of FSLR


GLBL $6.95 +0.43 -- Global Industries

GLBL has delivered an amazing run off its early July lows and investors will want to seriously consider taking some profits here. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time but I might be tempted to make a short-term bet if GLBL pulls back and bounces from the $6.00 level. Please note our new stop loss at $4.85. Our target to exit is $8.85.

Our plan called for buying the stock instead of the options. Our entry point to buy GLBL was hit on January 6, 2009

Current position in GLBL = $4.10 entry (stop loss: 3.95)
Current target to exit is $8.85.

Chart of GLBL:


GT $14.47 +0.13 -- Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.

It has been a very impressive three weeks for GT. The stock bounced from its test of round-number support at $10.00 and has since rallied past resistance near $14.00. Yup, that's a 44% gain in three weeks. The stock is definitely overbought here and due for a correction. Earnings are due out on July 30th before the market's opening bell. Odds are pretty good that GT could see some profit taking no matter what their results are after such a huge rebound. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions ahead of earnings. We'll re-evaluate after their report. More conservative traders concerned about protecting themselves may want to buy some cheap out of the money puts on July 29th at the closing bell. That way if GT sells off sharply the next day the gain in the puts will help offset any losses in our LEAPS. Of course if GT rallies on earnings the "insurance" you paid for the puts will evaporate pretty fast. Our long-term target is $25.00.

June 6th, 2009 - entry price on GT @ 12.94, option @ 2.20
symbol: GT-AC, 2010 $15 LEAP call - current bid/ask $1.90/2.00
-stop loss on GT @ 9.90.
-or-
June 6th, 2009 - entry price on GT @ 12.94, option @ 2.65
symbol: VYR-AD, 2011 $20 LEAP call - current bid/ask $1.80/2.10
-stop loss on GT @ 9.90.

Chart of GT:


HOS $23.87 -0.13 -- Hornbeck Offshore Services

The action in HOS last week looks bearish. The stock's rally ran out of steam at $26.00 and shares have produced a lower high and a bearish reversal compared to market that's making new highs for the year. Earnings are due out on July 30th before the open. I'm not suggesting new positions ahead of earnings. We can wait for another dip and bounce near $20.00 as a possible entry point. If you're worried about a serious sell-off you could always buy some short-term out of the money puts just ahead of earnings and sell them the next day if there is no post-earnings sell-off. Our long-term target is $35.00.

June 27th, 2009 - entry price on HOS @ 21.20, option @ 4.90
symbol: HOS-AD, 2010 JAN $20 LEAP call - current bid/ask $5.70/6.50
-stop loss on HOS @ 17.85
-or-
June 27th, 2009 - entry price on HOS @ 21.20, option @ 2.70
symbol: HOS-AE, 2010 JAN $25 LEAP call - current bid/ask $3.00/3.80
-stop loss on HOS @ 17.85

Chart of HOS:


INTC $19.36 -0.12 -- Intel Corp.

The rally in Intel continues to impress. However, the stock is extremely overbought and as much as I hate to say it gaps tend to get filled. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time but a dip or bounce near $17.00-17.50 could be our next entry point.

I'm not suggesting new LEAPS positions at this time. Our target is the $24-26 zone.

FYI: Shares of Intel don't move very fast. Readers might want to consider turning this play into a calendar spread to further maximize your gains.

June 13th, 2009 - entry price on INTC @ 16.31, option @ 1.36
symbol: VNL-AD, 2011 LEAP $20 call - current bid/ask $2.54/2.58
-stop loss on INTC @ 14.40.

Chart of INTC:


JOYG $38.54 -1.46 -- Joy Global Inc.

The rally in commodities, specifically copper, has helped lift JOYG to the $40.00 level. Shares hit some minor profit taking on Friday. We don't want to chase this move. Readers might want to consider new positions on a dip in the $35-30 zone. Our stop loss on this play is at $24.75. Our first target is $48.50. More conservative traders may want to consider a higher stop loss!

June 22nd, 2009 - entry price on JOYG @ 33.00, option @ 3.80
symbol: JQY-AH, 2010 JAN $40 LEAP call - current bid/ask $4.90/5.10
-stop loss on JOYG @ 24.75
-or-
June 22nd, 2009 - entry price on JOYG @ 33.00, option @ 6.90
symbol: ZMC-AH, 2011 JAN $40 LEAP call - current bid/ask $9.10/9.50
-stop loss on JOYG @ 24.75

Chart of JOYG:


KSU $20.35 +0.16 -- Kansas City Southern

KSU is the little engine that could. Shares went from one of the worst performers on our play list to one that is showing big promise with a huge rally off its early July lows. The breakout over resistance at $18.00 and its 200-dma is very bullish. The P&F chart points to a $30 target. This week the stock could see some profit taking. Earnings are due out July 30th before the market's opening bell. I'm not suggesting new positions ahead of earnings. We can wait for another dip and bounce near $18.00 as a possible entry point. If you're worried about a serious sell-off you could always buy some short-term out of the money puts just ahead of earnings and sell them the next day if there is no post-earnings sell-off but you risk these OTM puts going to sharply lower if KSU rallies on its earnings report. Our long-term target is the $27.50-30.00 zone.

May 9th, 2009 - entry price on KSU @ 17.01, option @ 0.90
symbol: LJR-AE, 2010 LEAP $25 call - current bid/ask $1.05/1.25
-stop loss on KSU @ 13.90.

Chart of KSU:


MDR $20.20 +0.26 - McDermott Intl. Inc.

Friday's breakout over resistance at $20.00 and its 50-dma and exponential 200-dma is definitely bullish for MDR. Yet the stock looks very overbought given its rally off the $16.00 lows. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Let's wait and see where the stock bounces on a correction. Our target to exit is a move into the $30.00-35.00 zone.

April 4th, 2009 - entry price on MDR @ 15.56, option @ 2.70
symbol: MDR-AD, 2010 $20 LEAP call - current bid/ask $2.95/3.10
-stop loss on MDR @ 14.75.

Chart of MDR:


MSFT $23.45 -2.11 -- Microsoft Corp.

You probably made out okay if you did end up buying some short-term puts on Thursday at the close. I just hope you sold them already! MSFT gapped down on Friday and lost 8% as investors reacted to its $1 billion revenue miss. In spite of the sell-off shares did not break their bullish channel. I would consider new long-term LEAPS positions anywhere in the $22.50-20.00 zone but I seriously doubt the stock will break $21.00 any time soon. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops toward the $20.00 mark.

This is going to be a long-term (18-month) trade. MSFT doesn't move that fast (normally). Investors might want to turn this into a calendar spread, selling calls against your LEAPS position like a covered-call trade. My long-term target is the $30 region.

June 2nd, 2009 - entry price on MSFT @ 21.60, option @ 2.20
symbol: VMF-AE, 2011 Jan. $25 call - current bid/ask $2.64/2.69
-stop loss on MSFT @ 18.40.

Chart of MSFT:


MT $37.41 +0.43 -- ArcelorMittal

The rebound in MT has been impressive and the stock closed at new highs for the year. After such a big bounce odds are pretty good the stock will see some profit taking when the company reports earnings this Wednesday, July 29th. I can't confirm it but it looks like MT will report Wednesday morning before the opening bell. MT is a European company so the news will come out while our markets are closed and shares will likely gap one way or the other on Wednesday. Buying some short-term OTM puts might be a good speculative bet the day before. We're not suggesting new LEAPS positions ahead of earnings. However, we can be watching for a correction toward the $32.50-30.00 zone as a possible entry point. Our long-term target is the $50 region. We'll use a stop loss at $24.45.

June 17th, 2009 - entry price on MT @ 30.50, option @ 2.70
symbol: MT-AH, JAN 2010 $40 call - current bid/ask $4.10/4.30
-stop loss on MT @ 24.45.

-or-

June 17th, 2009 - entry price on MT @ 30.50, option @ 2.00
symbol: MT-AJ, JAN 2010 $50 call - current bid/ask $1.35/1.55
-stop loss on MT @ 24.45.

Chart of MT:


NYX $26.92 -0.04 -- NYSE Euronext

The exchange stocks have been under performing the market recently. The good news it that under performance has changed from declining prices to a sideways consolidation. Investors seem nervous in all the exchange stocks following news that the CFTC and the Justice Department are considering increased regulation and an antitrust investigation for ICE and CME. The NYX doesn't appear to be part of those investigations but it's being lumped in with its peers. NYX reports earnings this week on July 30th before the market opens. More conservative traders may want to consider some out of the money (OTM) puts as a little insurance on your LEAPS investment. I'm not suggesting new positions ahead of earnings but another bounce from the $24.00 level might be a bullish entry point. Our long-term target is the $35.00-40.00 zone.

Apr. 11th, 2009 - entry price on NYX @ 21.51, option @ $1.81
-- NZV-AD, 2010 $30.00 LEAP call - current bid/ask $2.11/2.16
-stop loss on NYX at $19.95

Chart of NYX:


PBR $42.46 -0.11 -- Petroleo Brasiliero

PBR has managed to break through the $40.00 level and its 50-dma but volume has been fading a little. Readers may want to wait for a dip near $37.50 or its 100-dma before considering new bullish positions. I would strongly consider buying the $45 calls if you do launch new positions. The plan is to sell half our position at $49.50 and the rest at $57.50.

Apr. 4th, 2009 - entry price on PBR @ 35.10, option @ $2.80
symbol: PMJ-AJ, 2010 $50.00 LEAP call - current bid/ask $2.00/2.15
-stop loss on PBR at $29.00

Chart of PBR:


PEP $56.41 -0.09 -- PEPSICO Inc.

Defensive stocks like PEP have taken a back seat to more exciting names with the market in rally mode. At this point I would consider launching positions on a dip in the $54.00-52.00 zone. Our long-term target is the $65-70 zone. We'll use a stop loss at $51.50. This is an 18-month bet.

July 7th, 2009 - entry price on PEP @ 57.25, option @ $4.50(estimate)
symbol: VP-AL, 2011 $60.00 LEAP call - current bid/ask $3.70/4.10
-stop loss on PEP at $51.50

Chart of PEP:


PCU $25.62 -0.18 - Southern Copper Corp.

The rally in commodities and copper have fueled a huge move in PCU. The stock has broken out to new multi-month highs and resistance at $25.00. Shares are very overbought and we don't want to buy LEAPS at this time. A dip back toward the $22.00-20.00 is probably our next entry point. Our target is $30.00.

April 20th, 2009 - entry price on PCU @ 19.00, option @ 1.95
symbol: PCU-AE, JAN 2010 $25 LEAP call - current bid/ask $3.40/3.60
-stop loss on PCU @ 16.45.

Chart of PCU:


RAI $41.01 +0.65 -- Reynolds American Inc.

RAI reported earnings on Thursday morning. The company beat the estimates and raised their 2009 guidance. The stock broke out over $42.00 on the news but RAI didn't hit our $42.50 trigger until Friday morning. While our play is open I am suggesting readers wait for a pull back before launching new positions. The market itself overbought and due for a dip. Odds are good we'll get a better entry point to buy LEAPS on RAI near $40.00 soon.

July 24th, 2009 - entry price on RAI @ 42.50, option @ $1.45(estimate)
symbol: RAI-BI, 2010 FEB $45.00 LEAP call - current bid/ask $1.40/1.50
-stop loss on RAI at $35.99

or

July 24th, 2009 - entry price on RAI @ 42.50, option @ $4.50(estimate)
symbol: OWO-AH, 2011 JAN $40.00 LEAP call - current bid/ask $4.40/5.00
-stop loss on RAI at $35.99

Chart of RAI:


RIG $81.97 +2.03 -- Transocean Ltd.

RIG has produced a truly massive rebound off its early July lows near $65.00. Friday's rally broke through resistance at $80.00 and it broke through resistance on the P&F chart that now points to a $115 target. We don't want to chase this move. Broken resistance at $75 and $70 should now act as support. We'll have to wait and watch for a correction before considering new positions. Currently our target is $98.00. Please note our new stop loss at $64.99.

July 3rd, 2009 - entry price on RIG @ 70.50, option @ 5.40
symbol: RIG-AP, JAN 2010 $80 call - current bid/ask $9.40/9.60
-stop loss on RIG @ 64.99.

-or-

July 3rd, 2009 - entry price on RIG @ 70.50, option @ 3.90
symbol: RIG-AZ, JAN 2010 $85 call - current bid/ask $6.90/7.10
-stop loss on RIG @ 64.99.

Chart of RIG:


SGY $8.73 +0.20 -- Stone Energy Corp.

SGY is extending its gains. Shares might see some profit taking this week after the company reports earnings. The announcement is due out July 30th after the closing bell. I am not suggesting new bullish positions ahead of earnings. Yet another bounce from the $7.50 or $7.00 level would look like a possible entry point. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops toward the July low of $5.83. Our target is $14.75.

June 22nd, 2009 - entry price on SGY @ 6.35, option @ 0.75
symbol: STQ-AB, 2010 JAN $10 LEAP call - current bid/ask $1.20/1.40
-stop loss on SGY @ 4.90

FYI: The symbol has changed from YLO-AB to STQ-AB

-or-

June 22nd, 2009 - entry price on SGY @ 6.35, (buying the stock)
-stop loss on SGY @ 4.90

Chart of SGY:


SLB $57.34 -0.43 -- Schlumberger Ltd.

SLB reported earnings on Friday morning. The company beat estimates by 5 cents and beat the revenue estimate. Shares dipped toward $55.00 and its 50-dma and bounced. The bounce from support is encouraging but I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. The market is overbought. I'd rather consider new positions on a bounce from the $50.00 region.

Currently our exit strategy has three parts. The plan is to sell one third of our position at $59.00, which was originally our first target. We'll sell another one third at $69.00. We'll exit our final third at $77.50.

April 20th, 2009 - entry price on SLB @ 45.01, option @ 3.00
symbol: SLB-AL, JAN 2010 $60 LEAP call - current bid/ask $5.00/5.20
-stop loss on SLB @ 44.90.

1st exit @ $59.00 (1/3 of position) option @ $7.25 (+141% estimate)

Chart of SLB:


UNG $13.33 +0.45 - U.S. Natural Gas ETF

The oversold bounce in the UNG has failed at the $14.00 level. I suspect this ETF will retest the $12.00 zone again. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Big picture natural gas is in the process of making long-term lows here but that doesn't mean the commodity won't get more oversold first Our long-term target is the $25-30 zone.

June 16th, 2009 - entry price on UNG @ 16.26, option @ 3.90
symbol: ZZM-AT, JAN 2011 $20 LEAP call - current bid/ask $1.80/2.00
-stop loss on UNG @ no stop

Weekly Chart of UNG:


UYG $4.25 -0.01 - ProShares Ultra Financials (2x) ETF

The DJUSFN financial index is breaking resistance at the 220 level but the rest of the banking indices are struggling with resistance at their 200-dma (namely the BKX and BIX). If you don't mind buying a breakout then consider buying the UYG when it rallies past resistance at $4.75. I would prefer to buy a dip. A correction back toward $3.50 may be an entry point.

Please note that we have set our stop loss on UYG at breakeven at $1.50. More conservative traders might want to consider a stop near $2.00, $2.25 or higher based on your entry point.

Don't forget that the UYG trades off the DJUSFN index.

The plan is to hold the UYG for 18 to 24 months or longer. We'll evaluate potential exit points along the way.

Our strategy called for buying the ETF instead of the options.

Current position in the UYG = $1.50 entry (stop loss: 1.50)

Chart of UYG:


VOD $19.93 +0.46 -- Vodafone Group

The European markets have been in rally mode and the English market climbed ten days in a row. It's about time VOD finally started participating. Shares have rallied straight to resistance at the $20.00 mark. I would expect some profit taking. Readers can choose to wait and buy LEAPS on a dip near $19.00 or a breakout over $20.00 depending on your risk tolerance and style of trading. More conservative traders may want to use a stop loss closer to $18.00. Our target is the $27.50 region.

July 10th, 2009 - entry price on VOD @ 18.25, option @ 1.10
symbol: VOD-AD, 2010 JAN $20 LEAP call - current bid/ask $1.55/1.65
-stop loss on VOD @ 16.90

Chart of VOD:


WFR $18.72 -2.14 -- MEMC Electronic Materials Inc.

Ouch! WFR reported earnings last week. The company beat Wall Street's estimates. The beat the revenue estimate and management guided higher. Shares were trading higher after hours on the news and yet shares gap open lower on Friday following a downgrade. That's quite a reversal in less than 24 hours. It's probably just everyone trying to take profits at the same time. I remain bullish on WFR longer-term. I would be tempted to buy LEAPS on a dip into the $17.00-16.00 zone or a breakout over $21.25. Our long-term target is the $30.00 region.

June 23rd, 2009 - entry price on WFR @ 17.50, option @ 2.50
symbol: CJC-AD, 2010 JAN $20 LEAP call - current bid/ask $2.35/2.45
-stop loss on WFR @ 14.75

-or-

June 23rd, 2009 - entry price on WFR @ 17.50, option @ 3.43
symbol: ZET-AE, 2011 JAN $25 LEAP call - current bid/ask $2.60/2.85
-stop loss on WFR @ 14.75

Chart of WFR: