Closed Plays


None. We did not close any plays.


Play Updates


ACGY $10.47 -0.36 -- Acergy S.A.

ACGY tends to trade with the more volatile oil service stocks and the sector soared last Monday only to drift lower the rest of the week. Shares of ACGY rallied toward their June 2009 highs but didn't quite make it. Now we're starting to see some bearish curves in the short-term technicals. More conservative traders may want to consider a higher stop loss.

I'm not suggesting new LEAPS positions at this time. Our stop is at $6.95. Our plan is to exit in the $14.50-15.00 zone. ACGY is still testing resistance on its Point & Figure chart, which is currently forecasting a bullish target of $24.00.

April 25th, 2009 - entry price on ACGY @ 7.61, option @ 1.05
symbol: QLS-AB, 2010 JAN $10 LEAP call - current bid/ask $1.75/2.05
-stop loss on ACGY @ 6.95

Chart of ACGY


ACI $18.01 +0.19 -- Arch Coal Inc.

Coal stocks broke out to new highs last Monday and then spent the rest of the week churning sideways. Shares of ACI barely tagged a new relative high and focused mostly on the churning sideways. Short-term I would not be surprised to see a correction back to the $16.50 or $15.75 levels. Readers can use a dip near $16.00 as a new entry point. Our long-term target is the $30 region. If you do launch new positions I would buy the 2010 January $20 calls or 2011 January $25 calls rather than the ones originally listed below.

May 14th, 2009 - entry price on ACI @ 16.00, option @ 1.30
symbol: ACI-AE, 2010 JAN $25 LEAP call - current bid/ask .50/0.60
-stop loss on ACI @ 12.85

-or-

May 14th, 2009 - entry price on ACI @ 16.00, option @ 2.40
symbol: OSE-AF, 2011 JAN $30 LEAP call - current bid/ask $1.20/1.30
-stop loss on ACI @ 12.85

Chart of ACI:


BAC $16.42 -0.28 - Bank of America Corp.

BAC soared to new highs for 2009 and the breakout past resistance in the $14-15 zone is very bullish. Yet the stock is very overbought and due for a correction.

I want to remind readers that this is a long-term, two-year trade. Our exit target is the $30-40 zone.

Jan 25th, 2009 - entry price on BAC @ 6.24, option @ 2.38
symbol: VBA-AB, JAN 2011 $10 LEAP call - current bid/ask $7.75/7.85
-stop loss on BAC @ none.

Chart of BAC


CRM $46.73 +1.36 -- Salesforce.com

The rally continues in CRM and shares broke out over resistance last week to close at new highs for 2009. The stock is now within striking distance of our first target at $49.00. Readers could start taking profits now. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops toward $40.00 instead of our stop at $34.90. I am not suggesting new LEAPS positions at this time. We want to sell half of our position at $49.00. We'll sell the second half at $57.00.

April 1st, 2009 - entry price on CRM @ 30.00, option @ 4.30
symbol: CRM-AH, JAN 2010 $40 LEAP call - current bid/ask $9.40/9.60
-stop loss on CRM @ 34.90.
(note: readers have reported getting a better entry price than $4.30)

-or-

April 1st, 2009 - entry price on CRM @ 30.00, option @ 2.00
symbol: CRM-AI, JAN 2010 $45 LEAP call - current bid/ask $6.20/6.40
-stop loss on CRM @ 34.90.

Chart of CRM:


DBC $23.29 -0.11 -- PowerShares DB Commodity Index (ETF)

The commodities have been somewhat volatile last week thanks to big moves in the U.S. dollar. Early last week the dollar sank to new lows for 2009. Then on Thursday and Friday the dollar produced a big oversold bounce. In contrast commodities rallied sharply only to trim their gains. I am not suggesting new bullish positions in DBC at this time. Our long-term target is $30.00.

FYI: The DBC is an ETF on the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index using futures on light sweet crude oil, heating oil, aluminum, gold, corn and wheat.

July 6th, 2009 - entry price on DBC @ 21.50, option @ 4.28
symbol: VCZ-AT, 2011 JAN $20 LEAP call - current bid/ask $5.00/5.80
-stop loss on DBC @ 18.90.

-or-

July 6th, 2009 - entry price on DBC @ 21.50, option @ 2.62
symbol: VCZ-AY, 2011 JAN $25 LEAP call - current bid/ask $2.70/3.40
-stop loss on DBC @ 18.90.

Chart of DBC:


DO $89.04 -0.52 -- Diamond Offshore

Aside from the Monday morning pop last week the oil service stocks were under performers. Shares of DO drifted lower and the July 27th high is starting to look like a bearish double top. I am suggesting readers wait for a dip into the $82.00-80.00 zone to launch new bullish LEAPS positions. We'll put the stop at $69.95 but we could probably get away with a stop at $74.40.

-NEW- Buy the dip trigger: $82.00

BUY 2010 JANUARY $80 CALL (symbol: KWJ-AP)
-or-
BUY 2010 JANUARY $90 CALL (symbol: KWJ-AR)

Chart of DO:


DXO $4.83 -0.10 -- Deutsche Bank Double-long Oil ETN

The dollar's early weakness last week helped push the DXO to new highs for 2009 near $5.00. As the dollar bounced the DXO began to see some profit taking. I realize it's tempting to want to take profits here. Some traders are nimble enough to trade in an out of this ETF. We're trying to make this a long-term investment. Wait for a dip toward its 100-dma and trendline of higher lows before considering new positions.

Prior comments on this play:
The DXO is our long-term oil position. When we say long-term we're talking two or three years (or more). Currently the plan is to build a long-term position averaging down on dips. The $2.50 region is the sweet spot to buy the DXO. Anything under $2.50 is a gift. I want to repeat that this is not a trade. It's a multi-year investment. Currently our exit target is the $25.00 to $30.00 zone.

The Crude oil double-long ETN (exchange-traded note) offers investors two times the leveraged exposure to the monthly performance of the Deutsche Bank optimum yield crude oil index plus the monthly TBill index return.

Basically, when oil was $147 a barrel this ETN was $29.65. If oil returns to the $150 range over the next few years this ETN could rally to $30 for a 1500% return. This ETN does not expire. It can be used in IRAs and has no margin requirements like crude oil futures.

ETN Info:

Deutsche Bank ETN Fact Sheet

Deutsche Bank Pricing Description

Our plan called for buying this ETN instead of the options.

Current position in the DXO = $2.15 entry (no stop loss at this time)

Chart of DXO


ERTS $20.71 +0.02 -- Electronic Arts

Investors need to turn more defensive on ERTS. The company reported earnings last week. ERTS beat the bottom line estimate by 11 cents and actually beat the top line estimate, which has been an uncommon feat this season. Yet investors sold the news. The stock has been consolidating sideways in a pennant-shaped formation and the breakdown is bearish. I suspect shares will trend toward the $19-18 zone. Thus traders may want to consider selling some short-term calls (like August or Septembers) against your LEAP position to increase our returns. I would read up on diagonal spreads and the necessary margin requirements if you were interested. We'd have to use at-the-money or only slightly out-of-the-money calls to make this spread worthwhile.

I am not suggesting new LEAPS positions at this time.

We have two targets. We want to take part of the position off the table at $29.00. Take the rest off at $34.00.

April 20th, 2009 - entry price on ERTS @ 18.00, option @ 1.08
symbol: EZQ-AE, JAN 2010 $25 LEAP call - current bid/ask .85/0.95
-stop loss on ERTS @ 17.95.

-or-

April 20th, 2009 - entry price on ERTS @ 18.00, option @ 0.70
symbol: WZW-AF, JAN 2010 $30 LEAP call - current bid/ask .15/0.30
-stop loss on ERTS @ 17.95.

Chart of ERTS:


FAS $76.08 +5.56 - Direxion Fincl.Bull 3x ETF

It's been a very exciting week for the financials, especially the triple-leveraged ETFs like the FAS. This security has risen 33% in the last week and more than doubled from its July lows. If you haven't taken any profits yet I would strongly consider doing so right here right now! The banks are up huge in the last four weeks and way overdue for a correction. The FAS can move just as fast to the downside and we need to be expecting a correction. We're not suggesting new bullish positions in the FAS at this time.

Currently we have sold one third of our position at $60.00 (pre-split price of $12.00) and we plan to sell another third at $120.00. We'll re-evaluate our final target for the last third of our position as needed. FYI: On July 9th, 2009 the FAS performed a 1:5 reverse split.

Our plan called for buying the ETF instead of the options.

Current position in the FAS = $2.64 entry (stop loss: 2.64)
post-split prices are: $13.20 entry (stop loss: 13.20)

Exit 1/3 position @ 60.00 (+354%) /pre-split: 12.00

Chart of FAS

Chart of RIFIN (Russell 1000 financial services)


FCX $63.41 -0.58 - Freeport McMoran

FCX surged to new highs for 2009 last Monday and then spent the rest of the week churning sideways in a narrow range. I expect the stock to fill the gap back to $60.00 and probably dip back toward the $55.00 zone. If you're looking for a new long-term bullish entry point I'd prefer to wait for a correction toward the $52.50-50.00 zone or its 100-dma but there is no guarantee FCX will see any of these levels any time soon. The stock is actually within striking distance of our exit price at the $69.00 mark. I am suggesting that we sell 50% to 75% of our position at $69.00 and we'll maintain a small position and exit completely at $77.50.

The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $93 target. We don't want to chase this move but investors might want to consider new positions near $50.00 or its 100-dma. Our long-term target is $69.00.

June 22nd, 2009 - entry price on FCX @ 46.00, option @ 6.00
symbol: FCX-AK, 2010 JAN $55 LEAP call - current bid/ask $13.70/13.85
-stop loss on FCX @ 39.45
-or-
June 22nd, 2009 - entry price on FCX @ 46.00, option @ 10.00
symbol: OBQ-AL, 2011 JAN $60 LEAP call - current bid/ask $17.45/17.80
-stop loss on FCX @ 39.45

Chart of FCX:


FSLR $146.47 + 3.71 -- First Solar

FSLR has almost erased the July bounce from $140 as investors continue to sell the stock following its last earnings report. The $140 level appears to be decent support but if the market eventually corrects I can't say $140 will hold.

We are not suggesting new positions.

This play looked like a done deal back on April 30th when shares spiked higher. Here's a repost of our April 30th, 2009 trade recap:

The covered-call trade is now at maximum profit. We bought FSLR at $128.00 and sold the 2010 $150 LEAP for $40.70. After the April 30th move odds are almost guaranteed that we'll be called out but we have to leave it in our portfolio until we are. Profit if called is $40.70 for the call option we sold and a $22 rise in the stock price (from $128 to $150). Together that's a $62.70 gain on a $128 investment (+48.9%).

Our put-spread play is a position we plan on holding until expiration in January 2010. We bought the 2010 $100 LEAP put for $32.90. We sold the 2010 $250 LEAP put for $135.70. Our net credit was $103 into our account. If you covered on April 30th by buying back the $250 LEAP put (at the time trading around $80.00) our profit would only be about $23.00. That's not our plan. We're holding this position until January 2010 and will buy back the $250 LEAP put then with the expectation it will be worth even less (as the stock continues to climb).

Covered Call position:

Long 100 shares of FSLR @ $128.00
Short 2010 $150 LEAPS Call LZL-AA @ $40.70
Profit if called is $40.70 in option premium + $22 in stock (+49%)

Put Spread position:

Long 2010 $100 LEAPS Put LQM-MT @ $32.90
Short 2010 $250 LEAPS Put LZL-MJ @ $135.70, net credit $103

Currently the 2010 Jan. $100 put is worth (bid) $5.20.
The 2010 Jan. $250 put is worth $104.60.
If you're curious the 2010 Jan. $150 call is at $20.10.

Chart of FSLR


GLBL $8.43 +0.12 -- Global Industries

A 23% gain is not a bad week. GLBL broke through the $7.00 level early in the week and then soared past $8.00 and its May highs following its better than expected earnings report. The company reported on August 6th and results of 40 cents per share were 24 cents better than expected. Revenues also beat estimates. The stock was upgraded by two different firms on Friday and shares spiked to $8.83 Friday morning. That's only 2 cents away from our exit target at $8.85. I strongly suggest that readers start taking some profits right now. We are not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. If we're lucky GLBL will hit $8.85 on Monday and we will exit. More aggressive traders could aim for the $10.00 or $11.00 levels.

Note: GLBL is up almost 70% from its July lows. If the stock does not hit our target we have to expect a correction. At the very least a fill the gap move back toward $7.50.

Our plan called for buying the stock instead of the options. Our entry point to buy GLBL was hit on January 6, 2009

Current position in GLBL = $4.10 entry (stop loss: 4.85)
Current target to exit is $8.85.

Chart of GLBL:


GT $18.11 +0.57 -- Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co.

GT traded over $18.75 on Tuesday but shares spent most of the week consolidating sideways. The stock is up more than 80% from its July lows. We have to expect a correction. The only support is probably the $15.00-14.50 region. A 50% correction of the rally would be a dip near $14.35.

I'm not suggesting new LEAPS positions at these levels. Our long-term target is $25.00.

June 6th, 2009 - entry price on GT @ 12.94, option @ 2.20
symbol: GT-AC, 2010 $15 LEAP call - current bid/ask $4.40/4.60
-stop loss on GT @ 9.90.
-or-
June 6th, 2009 - entry price on GT @ 12.94, option @ 2.65
symbol: VYR-AD, 2011 $20 LEAP call - current bid/ask $3.70/4.30
-stop loss on GT @ 9.90.

Chart of GT:


HOS $22.37 +0.58 -- Hornbeck Offshore Services

The oil service stocks have been under performing the rest of the market. If the market finally corrects this group could really see some profit taking, which probably means HOS will break the trendline of support. I would wait for a dip or a bounce near its July lows (19.00-18.50 zone) before considering new bullish LEAPS positions. Our long-term target is $35.00.

June 27th, 2009 - entry price on HOS @ 21.20, option @ 4.90
symbol: HOS-AD, 2010 JAN $20 LEAP call - current bid/ask $4.00/4.80
-stop loss on HOS @ 17.85
-or-
June 27th, 2009 - entry price on HOS @ 21.20, option @ 2.70
symbol: HOS-AE, 2010 JAN $25 LEAP call - current bid/ask $1.85/2.35
-stop loss on HOS @ 17.85

Chart of HOS:


INTC $18.50 -0.20 -- Intel Corp.

Semiconductors have been under performing and Intel is a big reason why. I've been warning readers that the stock would probably fill the gap. It may take a few weeks but eventually we should see INTC dip toward $17.00. I would use a dip or bounce in the $17.00-16.00 zone as a new entry point. Our target is the $24-26 zone.

FYI: Shares of Intel don't move very fast. Readers might want to consider turning this play into a calendar or diagonal spread to further maximize your gains. Especially now with the stock edging lower.

June 13th, 2009 - entry price on INTC @ 16.31, option @ 1.36
symbol: VNL-AD, 2011 LEAP $20 call - current bid/ask $2.27/2.33
-stop loss on INTC @ 14.40.

Chart of INTC:


JOYG $42.88 +1.88 -- Joy Global Inc.

JOYG is on fire right now. The stock just added another 15% last week and managed to close above its May 2009 highs. The strength is very encouraging but shares are now overbought. I am not suggesting new LEAPS position at this time. We are upping our stop loss to $29.00.

June 22nd, 2009 - entry price on JOYG @ 33.00, option @ 3.80
symbol: JQY-AH, 2010 JAN $40 LEAP call - current bid/ask $7.70/7.90
-stop loss on JOYG @ 29.00
-or-
June 22nd, 2009 - entry price on JOYG @ 33.00, option @ 6.90
symbol: ZMC-AH, 2011 JAN $40 LEAP call - current bid/ask $12.10/12.90
-stop loss on JOYG @ 29.00

Chart of JOYG:


KSU $23.18 +1.15 -- Kansas City Southern

The Dow transportation index just barely closed at a new high for 2009. The breakout is much easier to see on the Dow Jones railroad index (DJUSRR). The huge rally in the railroads is very evident in KSU's chart with a surge from $15.00 to more than $23.00 in four week's time. We should be expecting some profit taking sooner or later. Broken resistance in the $18.00-17.00 zone should offer new support. I am not suggesting new LEAPS positions at this time. Our long-term target is the $27.50-30.00 zone.

May 9th, 2009 - entry price on KSU @ 17.01, option @ 0.90
symbol: KSU-AE, 2010 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $1.90/2.45
-stop loss on KSU @ 13.90.

The symbol changed from LJR-AE to KSU-AE.

Chart of KSU:


LNN $40.92 +2.32 -- Lindsay Corp.

The stock market's reaction to the jobs number on Friday morning was enough to fuel a rally in LNN and a breakout to new highs for 2009. The stock cleared resistance near $41.50 in the April-May time frame and hit $42.05. Unfortunately LNN began to trim its gains into the closing bell. We had a breakout trigger to buy LEAPS at $41.55 so our play is now open. If you missed it I wouldn't worry. The stock market is very overbought and due for a correction. LNN will probably retest the $38.00-35.00 zone. If you are looking for a new entry point I would wait for a dip closer to the $36.00-35.00 region (near the trendline of higher lows).

We want to sell half our LEAPS position at $49.50 and half at $59.50. We'll use a stop loss under the June low at $29.65.

August 7, 2009 - entry price on LNN @ 41.55, option @ 8.80
symbol: NRR-AG, 2010 JAN $35 LEAP call - current bid/ask $8.10/8.80
-stop loss on LNN @ 29.65
-or-
August 7, 2009 - entry price on LNN @ 41.55, option @ 6.00
symbol: NRR-AH, 2010 JAN $40 LEAP call - current bid/ask $5.40/6.00
-stop loss on LNN @ 29.65

Chart of LNN:


MDR $21.52 +0.82 - McDermott Intl. Inc.

MDR could see some volatility this week. Earnings are due out Monday, August 10th after the closing bell. Wall Street expects a profit of 37 cents a share. If the stock sees a sell-off I would look for support in the $19.00-18.00 zone. Our target to exit is a move into the $30.00-35.00 zone.

April 4th, 2009 - entry price on MDR @ 15.56, option @ 2.70
symbol: MDR-AD, 2010 $20 LEAP call - current bid/ask $3.90/4.10
-stop loss on MDR @ 14.75.

Chart of MDR:


MSFT $23.56 +0.10 -- Microsoft Corp.

MSFT has been drifting sideways since its post-earnings sell-off. Shares are flirting with a breakdown under their 50-dma and the bottom edge of the bullish channel.

I would consider new long-term LEAPS positions anywhere in the $22.50-20.00 zone but I seriously doubt the stock will break $21.00 any time soon. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops toward the $20.00 mark.

This is going to be a long-term (18-month) trade. MSFT doesn't move that fast (normally). Investors might want to turn this into a calendar or diagonal spread, selling calls against your LEAPS position. My long-term target is the $30 region.

June 2nd, 2009 - entry price on MSFT @ 21.60, option @ 2.20
symbol: VMF-AE, 2011 Jan. $25 call - current bid/ask $2.68/2.73
-stop loss on MSFT @ 18.40.

Chart of MSFT:


MT $37.38 +0.22 -- ArcelorMittal

MT's rally topped out on Monday and shares have been consolidating sideways all week. A 50% correction of the July rally (bottom to top) would be near $33.50. If you're looking for a new entry point I'd prefer to buy LEAPS on a bounce near support around the $30.00 level. Our long-term target is the $50 region. We'll use a stop loss at $24.45.

June 17th, 2009 - entry price on MT @ 30.50, option @ 2.70
symbol: MT-AH, JAN 2010 $40 call - current bid/ask $3.80/4.10
-stop loss on MT @ 24.45.

-or-

June 17th, 2009 - entry price on MT @ 30.50, option @ 2.00
symbol: MT-AJ, JAN 2010 $50 call - current bid/ask $1.25/1.40
-stop loss on MT @ 24.45.

Chart of MT:


NYX $28.77 +1.11 -- NYSE Euronext

NYX had a good week thanks to a strong bounce on Monday and then again on Friday. Shares closed over short-term resistance near $28.00 and technical resistance at the exponential 200-dma. I would prefer to launch new LEAPS positions on a dip near the $25-24 zone and I would definitely wait for a bounce first. Our long-term target is the $35.00-40.00 zone.

Apr. 11th, 2009 - entry price on NYX @ 21.51, option @ $1.81
-- NZV-AD, 2010 $30.00 LEAP call - current bid/ask $2.65/2.70
-stop loss on NYX at $19.95

Chart of NYX:


PBR $42.54 +0.16 -- Petroleo Brasiliero

It was a mixed week for oil companies and shares of PBR drifted sideways. Odds favor a correction back toward the $37.50-35.00 zone. I would wait for another dip or bounce near $35.00 before considering new LEAPS positions. If PBR does offer a new entry point I'd buy the 2010 $45.00 calls not the $50s. The plan is to sell half our position at $49.50 and the rest at $57.50.

Apr. 4th, 2009 - entry price on PBR @ 35.10, option @ $2.80
symbol: PMJ-AJ, 2010 $50.00 LEAP call - current bid/ask $2.20/2.30
-stop loss on PBR at $29.00

Chart of PBR:


PCU $27.13 +0.37 - Southern Copper Corp.

The rally in mining stocks ran out of steam around Monday and PCU spent most of the week churning sideways. We should be expecting some sort of correction after a run from $18.50 to almost $28.00 in four week's time. I'd prefer to wait for a dip back in the $22.00-20.00 zone as our next entry point. Our target is $30.00.

April 20th, 2009 - entry price on PCU @ 19.00, option @ 1.95
symbol: PCU-AE, JAN 2010 $25 LEAP call - current bid/ask $4.90/5.20
-stop loss on PCU @ 16.45.

Chart of PCU:


PEP $57.74 -0.09 -- PEPSICO Inc.

PEP made headlines and soared to new 2009 highs last Monday when the company announced it had reached a merger agreement to buy its two biggest bottlers. PEP had previously tried to buy The Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG) and PepsiAmericas (PAS) for about $6 billion but was rejected. The new deal, half in cash and half in stock, is worth $7.8 billion. Investors spent the rest of the week taking profits and shares look like they are ready to fill the gap from Monday morning. I would consider launching new positions on a dip in the $55.00-52.00 zone. Our long-term target is the $65-70 zone. We'll use a stop loss at $51.50. This is an 18-month bet.

July 7th, 2009 - entry price on PEP @ 57.25, option @ $4.50(estimate)
symbol: VP-AL, 2011 $60.00 LEAP call - current bid/ask $4.60/5.00
-stop loss on PEP at $51.50

Chart of PEP:


RAI $44.10 +0.42 -- Reynolds American Inc.

RAI consolidated sideways all week only to spike to new highs on the jobs report. Shares hit $44.80 and reversed. This almost looks like a short-term top. The stock is very overbought and I'm suggesting readers look for a dip into the $41.00-40.00 zone before launching new LEAPS positions. I'm suggesting we take some money off the table at $49.50 and exit completely at $57.50.

July 24th, 2009 - entry price on RAI @ 42.50, option @ $1.45(estimate)
symbol: RAI-BI, 2010 FEB $45.00 LEAP call - current bid/ask $2.15/2.30
-stop loss on RAI at $35.99

or

July 24th, 2009 - entry price on RAI @ 42.50, option @ $4.50(estimate)
symbol: OWO-AH, 2011 JAN $40.00 LEAP call - current bid/ask $5.20/6.50
-stop loss on RAI at $35.99

Chart of RAI:


RIG $75.06 -2.05 -- Transocean Ltd.

Buckle your seat belts. The correction in RIG has already begun. The company missed earnings estimates by 24 cents and shares gapped down on the news. The stock is now sliding through a cloud of moving averages, which should be support. The recent highs near $82.50 look like a bearish double top. I fully expect RIG will retest the $70.00 level and possibly support near $65.00 and its 200-dma. Wait for signs of a bounce first before considering new LEAPS positions. Currently our upside target is $98.00.

July 3rd, 2009 - entry price on RIG @ 70.50, option @ 5.40
symbol: RIG-AP, JAN 2010 $80 call - current bid/ask $5.90/6.10
-stop loss on RIG @ 64.99.

-or-

July 3rd, 2009 - entry price on RIG @ 70.50, option @ 3.90
symbol: RIG-AZ, JAN 2010 $85 call - current bid/ask $4.10/4.30
-stop loss on RIG @ 64.99.

Chart of RIG:


SGY $11.77 +0.38 -- Stone Energy Corp.

SGY has more than doubled from its July lows. Readers will want to strongly consider taking some profits right here even though our official target to exit is $14.75. Seriously! Officially I'm suggesting readers sell half their LEAPS/stock position right here.

The rally has stalled with shares of SGY churning sideways in the $11.00-12.00 zone. I would expect a correction back toward the $9.00 level. I am not suggesting new LEAPS or stock positions at this time.

June 22nd, 2009 - entry price on SGY @ 6.35, option @ 0.75
symbol: STQ-AB, 2010 JAN $10 LEAP call - current bid/ask $3.20/3.50
-stop loss on SGY @ 5.80

FYI: sell half LEAPS position at $3.20 (+326%)

-or-

June 22nd, 2009 - entry price on SGY @ 6.35, (buying the stock)
-stop loss on SGY @ 5.80

FYI: sell half stock position at $11.77 (+85.3%)

Chart of SGY:


SLB $53.25 -0.45 -- Schlumberger Ltd.

SLB is another oil service stock that has already begun to correct. I am expecting a dip toward $50.00 and probably a pull back toward support near $47.50. Wait for a bounce from this region before considering new bullish positions.

Currently our exit strategy has three parts. The plan was to sell one third of our position at $59.00, which was originally our first target. We'll sell another one third at $69.00. We'll exit our final third at $77.50.

April 20th, 2009 - entry price on SLB @ 45.01, option @ 3.00
symbol: SLB-AL, JAN 2010 $60 LEAP call - current bid/ask $3.20/3.40
-stop loss on SLB @ 44.90.

1st exit @ $59.00 (1/3 of position) option @ $7.25 (+141% estimate)

Chart of SLB:


UNG $13.13 -0.06 - U.S. Natural Gas ETF

I remain cautious on the UNG natural gas ETF. It almost looks like it is building a bear-flag type of pattern. The trend is still down and I expect a retest of the $12.00 level and potentially new lows.

I'm suggesting readers wait for the UNG to show new signs of bottoming before we consider new bullish positions. It may take several weeks but this is a long-term 18-month investment so we have time before putting any more capital to work here.

Trading Note: Investors may want to consider just cutting losses now. If I'm right we will get another entry point lower from here or at least on the way up instead of watching the premium slowly decay.

Looking at the big picture it seems like natural gas is in the process of making long-term (multi-year) lows here but that doesn't mean the commodity won't get more oversold first Our long-term target is the $25-30 zone.

June 16th, 2009 - entry price on UNG @ 16.26, option @ 3.90
symbol: ZZM-AT, JAN 2011 $20 LEAP call - current bid/ask $1.80/2.25
-stop loss on UNG @ no stop

Weekly Chart of UNG:


UYG $5.55 +0.31 - ProShares Ultra Financials (2x) ETF

As a double-long financial ETF it's been a very exciting few weeks. The UYG has soared to new multi-month highs. Readers may want to consider taking some profits right here since we'll probably see a correction and you can re-enter on the pull back. You don't have to sell everything just consider selling some of your UYG and then you have the freedom to re-enter that percentage of your investment on a dip near $4.50 or $4.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Please note that I'm raising the stop loss to $2.85.

Don't forget that the UYG trades off the DJUSFN index.

The plan is to hold the UYG for 18 to 24 months or longer. We'll evaluate potential exit points along the way.

Our strategy called for buying the ETF instead of the options.

Current position in the UYG = $1.50 entry (stop loss: 2.85)

Chart of UYG:


VOD $21.39 +0.40 -- Vodafone Group

VOD has turned in a decent couple of weeks. Broken resistance near $20.00 should now act as new support. Wait for a dip or a bounce near $20.00 as your new entry point. Our target is the $27.50 region.

July 10th, 2009 - entry price on VOD @ 18.25, option @ 1.10
symbol: VOD-AD, 2010 JAN $20 LEAP call - current bid/ask $3.20/3.50
-stop loss on VOD @ 17.85

Chart of VOD:


WFR $17.45 -0.37 -- MEMC Electronic Materials Inc.

The trading in WFR continues to look bearish. Shares did not participate in the rally at all and now the semiconductors look vulnerable. WFR looks like it's ready to drop toward $16.00 and its 200-dma. Fortunately that's where the stock should find some support. Wait for the dip or a bounce near $16.00 before considering new bullish positions. Our long-term target is the $30.00 region.

June 23rd, 2009 - entry price on WFR @ 17.50, option @ 2.50
symbol: CJC-AD, 2010 JAN $20 LEAP call - current bid/ask $1.65/1.75
-stop loss on WFR @ 14.75

-or-

June 23rd, 2009 - entry price on WFR @ 17.50, option @ 3.43
symbol: ZET-AE, 2011 JAN $25 LEAP call - current bid/ask $2.10/2.25
-stop loss on WFR @ 14.75

Chart of WFR: