Closed Plays


None. No closed plays this week.


Play Updates


Baidu, Inc. (Baidu.com) - BIDU - close: 84.33 change: +0.50

CNBC continues to cheer the market's September rally but I'm not seeing it in BIDU - at least not last week. The stock gained an impressive three cents. That's it! Traders bought the dip near $82 early in the week but the sold BIDU on the spike toward $86. The bounce looks a little tired. I would expect another pull back toward $80.00. The $87-88 zone is the next level of significant resistance.

Previous Comments:
BIDU is a very volatile stock. This is an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Keep your position size small to limit your risk. Our first long-term target is $99.50.

Aug 02, 2010 - entry price on BIDU @ 83.50, option @ 8.00
symbol: BIDU1122A90 2011 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $6.65/6.80
-stop loss on BIDU @ 73.40

- or -

Aug 02, 2010 - entry price on BIDU @ 83.50, option @ 13.00
symbol: BIDU1221A100 2012 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $11.85/12.10
-stop loss on BIDU @ 73.40

Chart of BIDU:


Bucyrus Intl. - BUCY - close: 66.87 change: +0.32

The rally in BUCY continued last week but shares ran into trouble near $68.00. The stock stalled near $68 on Wednesday and Thursday. Shares do look a little overbought with a rally from $53.50 to $68 in the last three weeks. We can look for a dip or a bounce in the $60.00-62.00 zone as a new entry point to consider call LEAPS.

Previous Comments:
Our first long-term target is $72.50. We're using a stop loss at $52.99. I prefer the 2012 call LEAPS but the 2011s should work.

Sep 01, 2010 - entry price on BUCY @ 61.00, option @ 8.50
symbol: BUCY1122A60 2011 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $11.70/11.90
-stop loss on BUCY @ 52.99

- or -

Sep 01, 2010 - entry price on BUCY @ 61.00, option @ 13.00
symbol: BUCY1221A70 2012 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $14.35/14.90
-stop loss on BUCY @ 52.99

Chart of BUCY:


ConocoPhillips - COP - close: 54.75 change: +0.02

Crude oil saw a nice rally on Friday but that didn't stop COP from posting a small loss for the week. The stock has been struggling with the $55.25 area. I would expect a pull back toward the $53-52 area. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Prior Comments:
Our first target is $69.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is suggesting a long-term $79 target. We are using a stop loss at $47.99.

May 20, 2010 - entry price on COP @ 51.00, option @ 3.75
symbol: COP 11A55.00 2011 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $3.05/3.15
-stop loss on COP @ 47.99

- or -

May 20, 2010 - entry price on COP @ 51.00, option @ 4.75
symbol: COP 11A55.00 2012 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $4.00/4.15
-stop loss on COP @ 47.99

09/04/10 COP gave us a new entry with the move over $54.00
07/17/10 COP's bounce has failed. Consider an early exit!
07/03/10 More Conservative traders may want to exit early!

Chart of COP:


EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 19.98 change: +0.06

Caution! This past week in EMC looks like a short-term top thanks to Thursday's failed rally. I would expect a pull back toward support near $19.00. If you are looking at launching new positions I would use the 2012 call LEAPS if EMC provides a new entry point (like a new bounce from $19.00).

Previous Comments:
Our first target is $22.50. Our second, longer-term target is $24.75.

May 6, 2010 - entry price on EMC @ 18.25, option @ 1.40
symbol: EMC 11A20.00 2011 Jan $20 call - current bid/ask $1.36/1.39
-stop loss on EMC @ 17.80

- or -

May 6, 2010 - entry price on EMC @ 18.25, option @ 2.50
symbol: EMC 12A20.00 2012 Jan $20 call - current bid/ask $2.71/2.82
-stop loss on EMC @ 17.80

09/04/10 EMC has provided a new entry point with the move over $19
07/03/10 More Conservative Traders may want to exit early!

Chart of EMC:


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 121.73 change: +0.17

Warning! We have been expecting gold to see some profit taking for a couple of weeks now but it just wouldn't go down. Well the shiny metal rallied toward its 2010 highs and appears to have finally created a failed rally pattern. I am expecting the GLD to correct back toward $118.50 and its rising 50 and 100-dma. More conservative traders may want to use a stop closer to $116.00 instead.

Previous Comments
Currently our stop loss is at $112.90. Our first long-term target is $140.

Aug 6, 2010 - entry price on GLD @ 118.00, option @ 7.70
symbol: GLD1119C120 2011 Mar $120 call - current bid/ask $8.60/8.80
-stop loss on GLD @ 112.90

- or -

Aug 6, 2010 - entry price on GLD @ 118.00, option @ 10.75
symbol: GLD1221A130 2012 Jan $130 call - current bid/ask $11.85/12.10
-stop loss on GLD @ 112.90

Weekly Chart of GLD:


Infosys Technologies - INFY - close: 62.33 change: +0.49

Shares of INFY are up about seven days in a row and the stock is nearing resistance in the $63.50 region. Odds are pretty good INFY will see a pull back soon. Look for short-term support near $60.00. I don't see any changes from my previous comments. We are leaving our stop at $54.90 for now but more conservative traders may want to move their stop toward last week's low (56.73).

Previous Comments:
We have a stop loss at $54.90. Our long-term target is $79.00.

July 1, 2010 - entry price on INFY @ 59.00, option @ 7.50
symbol: INFY 11A60.00 2011 Jan $60 call - current bid/ask $5.60/ 5.80
-stop loss on INFY @ 54.90

- or -

July 1, 2010 - entry price on INFY @ 59.00, option @ 8.20
symbol: INFY 12A65.00 2012 Jan $65 call - current bid/ask $7.60/ 8.20
-stop loss on INFY @ 54.90

Chart of INFY:


Intuitive Surgical - ISRG - close: 280.03 change: - 2.83

Shares of ISRG are not participating in the market's rally. That's a good sign for us but don't get complacent. There is still a decent chance that the oversold bounce could carry ISRG toward resistance near $300 before it finally rolls over again. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Wait for a new failed rally near $300.

Previous Comments:
When we started this play I suggested options significantly out of the money. This was probably going to be a real black or white win/lose situation. However, we did take profits early on 8/28/10 given the sharp sell-off but our long-term target is $250.00. The plan was to use small positions to limit our risk. We have a stop loss at $311.00.

This is a PUT play.

Aug 20, 2010 - entry price on ISRG @ 299.00, option @ 14.00
symbol: ISRG 11m250 2011 Jan $250 PUT - current bid/ask $15.20/15.90
-stop loss on ISRG @ 311.00

08/28/10 Take Profits, sell half @ $18.30 (+30.7%)

Chart of ISRG:


McDonald's Corp. - MCD - close: 75.01 change: +0.64

On Wednesday MCD tagged another new 52-week high, this time at $76.26. Shares gapped down on Thursday morning as investors reacted to news. The company said global same-store sales were +4.9% in August. That's pretty strong and traders bought the dip near $74.00. I still think MCD looks overbought. I would prefer to consider new bullish positions on a dip or a bounce near $72-70.

Prior Comments:
Keep your positions small. Our long-term target is $79.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart forecasting an $96 (long-term) target.

June 29, 2010 - entry price on MCD @ 66.50, option @ 2.65
symbol: MCD 11A70.00 2011 Jan $70 call - current bid/ask $6.50/ 6.65
-stop loss on MCD @ 66.75

- or -

June 29, 2010 - entry price on MCD @ 66.50, option @ 2.20
symbol: MCD 12A80.00 2012 Jan $80 call - current bid/ask $3.85/ 4.05
-stop loss on MCD @ 66.75

08/28/10 New stop @ 66.75
07/17/10 Take Profits! 2011 Jan $70 call @ 4.00 (+51%), 2012 $80 call @ 3.50 (+59%)

Chart of MCD:


Millicom Intl. - MICC - close: 98.25 change: -0.27

The stock was downgraded on Sept. 7th but the news didn't have much affect on the stock price. MICC has been struggling with the $99.00 level lately. The stock spiked to $99.23 on Thursday and quickly reversed. We've already taken profits once, don't wait for MICC to hit $99.50 (originally our first target) to take some money off the table. Our second and final target is $109.00 but that will take awhile to reach and we're not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Look for support near $94 and $92.00.

Previous Comments:
Keep your positions small to limit your risk. MICC is (normally) a volatile stock. Our second, long-term target is the $109.00 levels. Our stop loss is at $86.40.

May 6, 2010 - entry price on MICC @ 80.00, option @ 8.60
symbol: MICC 11A90.00 2011 Jan $90 call - current bid/ask $12.50/13.50
-stop loss on MICC @ 86.40

09/04/10 Take Profits Early, MICC @ 98.79, option @ $12.90 (+50%)
plus new stop at $86.40

Chart of MICC:


NetApp, Inc. - NTAP - close: 44.05 change: +0.98

Sell now - if you have the 2011 Jan. $40 calls. NTAP continues to show relative strength and the stock hit new highs this week at $47.89 on Thursday. Our long-term target has been $49.00. NTAP is up huge in the past four weeks. I'm suggesting we sell the 2011 calls now. We'll keep the 2012 calls but we will raise our exit target to $54.00. Update
We have sold the 2011 call position. All we have left are the 2012 calls. Our new long-term target is $54.00. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops.

Aug 12, 2010 - entry price on NTAP @ 37.50, option @ 3.00
symbol: NTAP1122A40 2011 Jan $40 call - sell it - bid @ $8.30
-stop loss on NTAP @ 34.75

- or -

Aug 12, 2010 - entry price on NTAP @ 37.50, option @ 4.00
symbol: NTAP1221A45 2012 Jan $45 call - current bid/ask $ 8.70/ 8.95
-stop loss on NTAP @ 34.75

09/11/10 Sell the rest of the 2011 calls, NTAP @ 46.33, call @ 8.30 (+176%)
09/04/10 Take Profits Early, NTAP @ 44.05, 2011 $40 call @ 6.45 (+115%)
The 2012 $45 call @ $7.05 (+76%)

Chart of NTAP:


Occidental Petroleum - OXY - close: 78.20 change: +0.63

OXY continues to fail at resistance near $79.00 and its exponential 200-dma but the action is growing more bullish. The strength in crude oil this past week certainly didn't hurt the bulls. I am growing more cautious on this put play. More conservative traders may want to scale back their positions. I am not suggesting new bearish positions at this time.

Previous Comments:
No new positions at this time!
Our first target is $65.50. Our second target is $60.25. I prefer the 2012 puts over the 2011 puts but both should work.

- This is a PUT Play -

Aug 16, 2010 - entry price on OXY @ 74.00, option @ 2.17
symbol: OXY1122M60 2011 Jan $60 put - current bid/ask $ 1.26/ 1.31
-stop loss on OXY @ 80.25

- or -

Aug 16, 2010 - entry price on OXY @ 74.00, option @ 6.58
symbol: OXY1221M60 2012 Jan $60 put - current bid/ask $ 5.20/ 5.40
-stop loss on OXY @ 80.25

Chart of OXY:


PEPSICO Inc. - PEP - close: 66.41 change: +0.31

The market seems to be trending higher but investors are still cautious and safe defensive names are gaining attention. PEP has rallied toward its August highs. It would appear that PEP has created a bullish pattern over the last several months and the stock is poised to breakout but I doubt it will happen unless the major market indices lead the way higher. I am less enthusiastic about bullish positions in PEP at this time. FYI: There was a recent article on Forbes.com discussing KO and PEP's vulnerability to a tax on sodas and other sugary drinks to help pay for Obama's healthcare reform. FYI: PEP is due to report earnings on Oct. 7th.

Previous Comments:
Our final target remains $72.25.

July 7th, 2009 - entry price on PEP @ 57.25, option @ $4.50(estimate)
symbol: VP-AL, 2011 $60.00 LEAP call - current bid/ask $7.30/7.40
-stop loss on PEP at $59.85

09/04/10 may want to consider new positions with 2012 calls
06/26/10 Repeat - More cautious traders will want to consider an exit.
06/05/10 More cautious traders may want to exit now to avoid a loss.

03/27/10 SELL HALF: PEP $ 66.59, Option @ $8.00 (+77.7%)

Chart of PEP:


Panera Bread - PNRA - close: 86.14 change: +0.59

The rally in PNRA has stalled. The stock has been struggling with resistance near the $87.00 level for a week! Odds are very good shares will see a correction soon. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. I am expecting a dip back toward $83.00 (possibly lower) before PNRA tries to rally again.

Previous Comments:
We have already taken profits once on Sept. 4th. We have a stop loss at $78.45. Our final target is $88.00.

Aug 30th, 2010 - entry price on PNRA @ 80.75, option @ $4.20
symbol: PNRA1122A85 2011 $85.00 LEAP call - current bid/ask $7.00/7.70
-stop loss on PNRA at $78.45

09/04/10 Take profits early. Sell half. PNRA @ 85.02, option @ 6.20 (+47.6%)
08/30/10 Triggered at $80.75

Chart of PNRA:


Transocean Ltd. - RIG - close: 58.82 change: +3.52

Target achieved! RIG hit our first target at $59.00 on Friday. The stock spiked to $60.10 intraday. Oil service stocks were relative strength leaders with a +2.7% gain in the OSX index. RIG posted a +6.3% rally on Friday. The $60 level could be resistance so I would expect some profit taking with a dip back toward $55.00. Please note I'm raising our stop loss to $47.45. More conservative traders may want to use a stop closer to $50.00. Our second, long-term target remains $75.00.

Previous Comments:
This is a very aggressive trade given the unknown risks associated with RIG's connection to the Gulf oil spill. Our long-term targets are $59 and $75.

Jun 09, 2010 - entry price on RIG @ 43.50, option @ 6.50
symbol: RIG 11A50.00 2011 Jan $50 call - current bid/ask $11.45/11.65
-stop loss on RIG @ 47.45

- or -

Jun 09, 2010 - entry price on RIG @ 43.50, option @ 7.25
symbol: RIG 12A60.00 2012 Jan $60 call - current bid/ask $10.35/10.75
-stop loss on RIG @ 47.45

09/10/10 Target Hit @ 59.00, 2011 Jan $50 call @ $11.45 (+76.1%), the 2012 Jan $60 call @ $10.35 (+42.7%)

Chart of RIG:


TASER Intl. - TASR - close: 3.90 change: -0.05

TASR has been stuck under resistance at the $4.00 level for a week. If you squint at the chart it almost looks like the stock is forming a bull-flag pattern but that could be wishful thinking. I would expect a dip back toward $3.80, which as broken resistance should offer some new support.

Previous Comments:
Our stop loss is at $3.45. Our long-term target is $4.90.

STRATEGY: Buy TASR stock (entry $3.69), stop loss $3.45

08/30/10 TASR opens Monday at $3.69 (entry point)
08/28/10 TASR listed as a new play

Chart of TASR: