Closed Plays


NTAP and PNRA were closed.


Play Updates


Baidu, Inc. (Baidu.com) - BIDU - close: 85.73 change: -0.36

Shares of BIDU continue to struggle under their August highs. Momentum is definitely stalling. The action on Tuesday and Friday certainly looks like a short-term bearish reversal. We can expect a correction back toward the $80 region. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time but nimble traders could wait for a bounce from $80. FYI: Recently there have been some rumors that BIDU might try and acquire Sohu.com, China's leading online brand and Internet portal.

Previous Comments:
BIDU is a very volatile stock. This is an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Keep your position size small to limit your risk. Our first long-term target is $99.50.

Aug 02, 2010 - entry price on BIDU @ 83.50, option @ 8.00
symbol: BIDU1122A90 2011 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $6.85/7.00
-stop loss on BIDU @ 73.40

- or -

Aug 02, 2010 - entry price on BIDU @ 83.50, option @ 13.00
symbol: BIDU1221A100 2012 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $12.10/12.35
-stop loss on BIDU @ 73.40

Chart of BIDU:


Bucyrus Intl. - BUCY - close: 70.37 change: +1.25

Wow! The rally in BUCY continues. I have to warn you that shares will likely see a correction soon. The stock has rallied from $53 to over $70 (+32%) in less than a month. This pace is unsustainable and BUCY is nearing potential resistance at its 2010 highs (near $72.50). I am suggesting we go ahead and take some profits on the 2011 Jan $60 calls. We'll sell half our position now. I'm also raising the stop loss to $57.40. We should expect a significant correction. I would look for a dip back toward $66-64. We will add a secondary, long-term target (especially for the 2012 calls) of $87.50.

Sep 01, 2010 - entry price on BUCY @ 61.00, option @ 8.50
symbol: BUCY1122A60 2011 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $13.85/14.10
-stop loss on BUCY @ 57.40

- or -

Sep 01, 2010 - entry price on BUCY @ 61.00, option @ 13.00
symbol: BUCY1221A70 2012 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $16.15/16.45
-stop loss on BUCY @ 57.40

09/18/10 Take Profits. We want to sell half of our 2011 Jan $60 calls.
BUCY is at $70.37. The calls are bid $13.85 (+62.9%) 09/18/10 New stop loss at $57.40

Chart of BUCY:


ConocoPhillips - COP - close: 55.27 change: -0.09

I am surprised that crude oil did not see a bigger rally last week considering the sell-off in the U.S. dollar but there are still concerns over demand for energy as the U.S. economy creeps along. Shares of COP did not make any progress. Odds are growing we will see COP correct back toward the $53-52 zone. I am tempted to raise the stop closer toward the $50 level. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Prior Comments:
Our first target is $69.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is suggesting a long-term $79 target. We are using a stop loss at $47.99.

May 20, 2010 - entry price on COP @ 51.00, option @ 3.75
symbol: COP 11A55.00 2011 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $3.10/3.20
-stop loss on COP @ 47.99

- or -

May 20, 2010 - entry price on COP @ 51.00, option @ 4.75
symbol: COP 11A55.00 2012 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $4.05/4.25
-stop loss on COP @ 47.99

09/04/10 COP gave us a new entry with the move over $54.00
07/17/10 COP's bounce has failed. Consider an early exit!
07/03/10 More Conservative traders may want to exit early!

Chart of COP:


EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 20.57 change: +0.01

Warning! While EMC managed another gain for the week I think shares are quickly running out of steam. The stock is struggling under its 2010 highs and after a big rally from $18 in late August the stock is still overbought. Readers should expect a correction toward the $19.50-19.00 zone. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Previous Comments:
Our first target is $22.50. Our second, longer-term target is $24.75.

May 6, 2010 - entry price on EMC @ 18.25, option @ 1.40
symbol: EMC 11A20.00 2011 Jan $20 call - current bid/ask $1.68/1.71
-stop loss on EMC @ 17.80

- or -

May 6, 2010 - entry price on EMC @ 18.25, option @ 2.50
symbol: EMC 12A20.00 2012 Jan $20 call - current bid/ask $3.00/3.15
-stop loss on EMC @ 17.80

09/04/10 EMC has provided a new entry point with the move over $19
07/03/10 More Conservative Traders may want to exit early!

Chart of EMC:


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 124.54 change: -0.09

The bull market in gold continues and it was a strong week for the precious metal. Gold futures broke out to new highs closing in on the $1,280 an ounce level. Thus far gold futures are up +16% this year and gold is working on its 10th straight year of gains, making it the longest bull market in gold since 1920. It seems like everyone has an opinion on gold. The long-term trend is up but short-term I'm concerned that gold and specifically the GLD ETF is overbought. The GLD is up six out of the last seven weeks. While the breakout to a new all-time high (for the GLD) is bullish it looks due for some profit taking. My bias is still bullish but I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Previous Comments
Currently our stop loss is at $112.90. Our first long-term target is $140.

Aug 6, 2010 - entry price on GLD @ 118.00, option @ 7.70
symbol: GLD1119C120 2011 Mar $120 call - current bid/ask $9.85/10.05
-stop loss on GLD @ 112.90

- or -

Aug 6, 2010 - entry price on GLD @ 118.00, option @ 10.75
symbol: GLD1221A130 2012 Jan $130 call - current bid/ask $12.65/12.95
-stop loss on GLD @ 112.90

Weekly Chart of GLD:


Humana Inc. - HUM - close: 50.37 change: -1.07

HUM has made the jump from our watch list to our play list. Shares rallied to a new multi-year high on Monday only to reverse course. Shares spent the rest of the week in profit taking mode. The selling accelerated on Friday and HUM hit our trigger to buy calls at $50.50 on Friday afternoon. The stock has spent the last several months building a base in the $43-52 zone and a breakout higher should herald the beginning of another long-term up trend. More conservative traders may want to wait for a bounce first before initiating positions. Technically this past week has created a bearish engulfing (reversal) pattern but these patterns need to be confirmed first. Now that the play is open our first long-term target is $59.50. We'll start with a stop loss at $44.90. I'm listing the 2011 January calls but I prefer the 2012 Jan. calls. FYI: The point-and-figure chart is forecasting a long-term target of $66.00.

Sep 17, 2010 - entry price on HUM @ 50.50, option @ 1.85
symbol: HUM1122A55 2011 Jan $55 call - current bid/ask $1.70/ 1.85
-stop loss on HUM @ 44.90

- or -

Sep 17, 2010 - entry price on HUM @ 50.50, option @ 6.40
symbol: HUM1221A55 2012 Jan $55 call - current bid/ask $6.00/ 6.40
-stop loss on HUM @ 44.90

Chart of HUM:


Infosys Technologies - INFY - close: 65.07 change: +0.16

Shares of INFY continue to post gains. The stock vaulted to new 10-year highs this past week thanks in part to a big rally back home in the Indian market. The close over resistance at $64.00 is certainly bullish but INFY is very short-term overbought. We should expect a correction. I would look for a pull back toward the $62 area. Wait for the dip before considering new bullish positions. I am adjusting our stop loss to $56.75. FYI: The P&F chart is now forecasting a long-term target of $82.

Previous Comments:
Our long-term target is $79.00.

July 1, 2010 - entry price on INFY @ 59.00, option @ 7.50
symbol: INFY 11A60.00 2011 Jan $60 call - current bid/ask $6.70/ 7.60
-stop loss on INFY @ 56.75

- or -

July 1, 2010 - entry price on INFY @ 59.00, option @ 8.20
symbol: INFY 12A65.00 2012 Jan $65 call - current bid/ask $8.00/ 9.40
-stop loss on INFY @ 56.75

Chart of INFY:


Intuitive Surgical - ISRG - close: 295.77 change: + 3.52

Bingo! We have been expecting an oversold bounce back to the $300 level and finally got it this week. Shares of ISRG garnered an "over weight" analyst recommendation Friday morning and that helped shares spike to $301.42 but ISRG was unable to maintain its gains. The move on Friday looks like a potential failed rally/bearish reversal at resistance (near $300) but readers may want to wait for a little confirmation first before launching new bearish positions.

Previous Comments:
When we started this play I suggested options significantly out of the money. This was probably going to be a real black or white win/lose situation. However, we did take profits early on 8/28/10 given the sharp sell-off but our long-term target is $250.00. The plan was to use small positions to limit our risk. We have a stop loss at $311.00.

This is a PUT play.

Aug 20, 2010 - entry price on ISRG @ 299.00, option @ 14.00
symbol: ISRG 11m250 2011 Jan $250 PUT - current bid/ask $10.30/11.20
-stop loss on ISRG @ 311.00

08/28/10 Take Profits, sell half @ $18.30 (+30.7%)

Chart of ISRG:


McDonald's Corp. - MCD - close: 74.32 change: -0.48

After several weeks of gains it looks like MCD is finally running out of steam. The stock lost less than a dollar this past week but momentum is beginning to rollover. I am expecting MCD to retest the $72 level and potentially the $70 region before bouncing again. This could take a couple of weeks. No new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to exit completely from the 2011 Jan. calls.

Prior Comments:
Keep your positions small. Our long-term target is $79.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart forecasting an $99 (long-term) target.

June 29, 2010 - entry price on MCD @ 66.50, option @ 2.65
symbol: MCD 11A70.00 2011 Jan $70 call - current bid/ask $6.25/ 6.40
-stop loss on MCD @ 66.75

- or -

June 29, 2010 - entry price on MCD @ 66.50, option @ 2.20
symbol: MCD 12A80.00 2012 Jan $80 call - current bid/ask $3.65/ 3.75
-stop loss on MCD @ 66.75

08/28/10 New stop @ 66.75
07/17/10 Take Profits! 2011 Jan $70 call @ 4.00 (+51%), 2012 $80 call @ 3.50 (+59%)

Chart of MCD:


Millicom Intl. - MICC - close: 98.51 change: -0.54

If you haven't done so yet take profits in MICC. Shares have spent a week and a half consolidating sideways in the $97-99.50 zone. While you could argue MICC has maintained its bullish trend of higher lows I am still worried that shares are a little overbought and struggling under round-number resistance at $100. I am expecting a correction back toward $95 and potentially back toward the $92.50-90 zone. We have already taken profits once near $99. Our secondary, long-term target is $109.00 but we're not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. FYI: The P&F chart is bullish and forecasting a $119 target.

Previous Comments:
Keep your positions small to limit your risk. MICC is (normally) a volatile stock. Our second, long-term target is the $109.00 levels. Our stop loss is at $86.40.

May 6, 2010 - entry price on MICC @ 80.00, option @ 8.60
symbol: MICC 11A90.00 2011 Jan $90 call - current bid/ask $12.20/13.20
-stop loss on MICC @ 86.40

09/04/10 Take Profits Early, MICC @ 98.79, option @ $12.90 (+50%)
plus new stop at $86.40

Chart of MICC:


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 10.55 change: -0.02

NVDA has made the leap from watch list candidate to play list. The stock saw a very big move last Monday with a rally from $10.10 to $10.77. We had a trigger to buy calls at $10.75. While the action in NVDA the past couple of weeks has been bullish I'm a little bit concerned with the major market indices stuck under resistance. I suspect that odds are very high we will see NVDA retest the $10.00 level. I'm suggesting readers wait for another dip or even a bounce from $10.00 before launching positions here. We are starting the play with a stop loss at $9.45.

Previous Comments:
This remains an aggressive, higher-risk trade. NVDA has been struggling and sales growth has been slowing down but we are betting the worse has already been priced in for this stock. Keep your positions very small to limit our risk. Our first target is $12.50. Our second, longer-term target is $14.00.

Sep 13, 2010 - entry price on NVDA @ 10.75, option @ 1.58
symbol: NVDA1122A10 2011 Jan $10 call - current bid/ask $1.39/ 1.42
-stop loss on NVDA @ 9.45

- or -

Sep 13, 2010 - entry price on NVDA @ 10.75, option @ 1.69
symbol: NVDA1221A12.5 2012 Jan $12.50 call - current bid/ask $1.55/ 1.62
-stop loss on NVDA @ 9.45

09/13/10 Play Triggered @ $10.75

Chart of NVDA:


Occidental Petroleum - OXY - close: 76.20 change: -0.25

OXY has been giving us a little bit of a scare the last couple of weeks but shares finally rolled over under resistance. On the weekly chart OXY has created a bearish engulfing (reversal) candlestick pattern but this needs to be confirmed. A new close under $75.00 or $74.00 could be seen as a new entry point for bearish positions.

Previous Comments:
Our first target is $65.50. Our second target is $60.25. I prefer the 2012 puts over the 2011 puts but both should work.

- This is a PUT Play -

Aug 16, 2010 - entry price on OXY @ 74.00, option @ 2.17
symbol: OXY1122M60 2011 Jan $60 put - current bid/ask $ 1.28/ 1.32
-stop loss on OXY @ 80.25

- or -

Aug 16, 2010 - entry price on OXY @ 74.00, option @ 6.58
symbol: OXY1221M60 2012 Jan $60 put - current bid/ask $ 5.45/ 5.65
-stop loss on OXY @ 80.25

Chart of OXY:


PEPSICO Inc. - PEP - close: 66.12 change: -0.49

Hmmm... PEP is another stock that appears to be running out of gas although shares weren't moving that fast to begin with. The stock just produced a bearish reversal pattern on Friday near $67 resistance. I would expect a correction back toward the $64 area or the 200-dma. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. FYI: PEP is due to report earnings on Oct. 7th.

Previous Comments:
Our final target remains $72.25.

July 7th, 2009 - entry price on PEP @ 57.25, option @ $4.50(estimate)
symbol: VP-AL, 2011 $60.00 LEAP call - current bid/ask $6.95/7.05
-stop loss on PEP at $59.85

09/04/10 may want to consider new positions with 2012 calls
06/26/10 Repeat - More cautious traders will want to consider an exit.
06/05/10 More cautious traders may want to exit now to avoid a loss.
03/27/10 SELL HALF: PEP $ 66.59, Option @ $8.00 (+77.7%)

Chart of PEP:


Transocean Ltd. - RIG - close: 60.16 change: +0.30

RIG has been struggling with resistance near $60.00 this past week but the stock did manage another weekly gain. The stock even managed to close over the $60.00 mark for the first time in months. While I remain very bullish on RIG I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Look for a correction back toward $55.00 before considering new positions. We have already taken profits once at $59.00. Our secondary, longer-term target is $75.00. I suspect we will end up selling the 2011 calls before RIG hits $75.00.

Previous Comments:
This is a very aggressive trade given the unknown risks associated with RIG's connection to the Gulf oil spill. Our long-term targets are $59 and $75.

Jun 09, 2010 - entry price on RIG @ 43.50, option @ 6.50
symbol: RIG 11A50.00 2011 Jan $50 call - current bid/ask $12.35/12.50
-stop loss on RIG @ 47.45

- or -

Jun 09, 2010 - entry price on RIG @ 43.50, option @ 7.25
symbol: RIG 12A60.00 2012 Jan $60 call - current bid/ask $11.15/11.45
-stop loss on RIG @ 47.45

09/10/10 Target Hit @ 59.00, 2011 Jan $50 call @ $11.45 (+76.1%), the 2012 Jan $60 call @ $10.35 (+42.7%)

Chart of RIG:


TASER Intl. - TASR - close: 3.88 change: -0.02

It was another quiet week for news on TASR (there was none). Shares have been consolidating sideways under resistance near $4.00. Friday was somewhat significant with traders buying the dip near $3.80 since $3.80 was prior resistance and should be new support. This remains an aggressive trade. We want to keep our positions small. I would be tempted to buy TASR on dips near $3.80 or a close over $4.06 (but adjust your stop loss).

Previous Comments:
Our stop loss is at $3.45. Our long-term target is $4.90.

STRATEGY: Buy TASR stock (entry $3.69), stop loss $3.45

08/30/10 TASR opens Monday at $3.69 (entry point)
08/28/10 TASR listed as a new play

Chart of TASR:


CLOSED Plays

NetApp, Inc. - NTAP - close: 49.04 change: +0.36

Take the money and run! Shares of NTAP have continued to rally but I'm worried the stock has gone too far too fast. A move from $38 to $49 in the last five weeks is extreme. I am suggesting we exit our remaining position (2012 calls).

Shares of NTAP are on fire because traders believe the next major acquisition will be in technology and NTAP is a likely target. By selling now we are giving up the opportunity should someone bid more than $50 for the company. More aggressive traders may want to consider leaving a position open. I'm suggesting we exit now and pocket the gains.

Aug 12, 2010 - entry price on NTAP @ 37.50, option @ 4.00
symbol: NTAP1221A45 2012 Jan $45 call - sell it! bid @ 10.15
-stop loss on NTAP @ 34.75

09/18/10 Exit Now! NTAP @ 49.04, 2012 Jan $45 call @ 10.15 (+153.7%)
09/11/10 Sell the rest of the 2011 calls, NTAP @ 46.33, call @ 8.30 (+176%)
09/04/10 Take Profits Early, NTAP @ 44.05, 2011 $40 call @ 6.45 (+115%)
The 2012 $45 call @ $7.05 (+76%)

Chart of NTAP:


Panera Bread - PNRA - close: 86.76 change: +0.14

It's game over for our short-term PNRA call trade. The stock was nice enough to spike to $88.72 on Sept. 14th. Our final target to exit was $88.00. Shares appear to be rolling over or at least losing momentum under resistance near the 2010 highs. I would expect a correction very soon.

Aug 30th, 2010 - entry price on PNRA @ 80.75, option @ $4.20
symbol: PNRA1122A85 2011 $85.00 LEAP call - exit @ $8.50
-stop loss on PNRA at $78.45

09/14/10 Closed - PNRA hit our final target at $88.00, option @ 8.50 (+102%)
09/04/10 Take profits early. Sell half. PNRA @ 85.02, option @ 6.20 (+47.6%)
08/30/10 Triggered at $80.75

Chart of PNRA: