Editor's Note:

We want to take advantage of the big moves in BIDU and NVDA to take some money off the table.


Closed Plays


ISRG and OXY are closed.


Play Updates


Baidu, Inc. (Baidu.com) - BIDU - close: 97.83 change: +2.80

Take profits now! It has been an exceptional week for shares of BIDU. The stock is up five days in a row. The week started with a big surge toward $90 last Monday. Now BIDU is nearing potential round-number, psychological resistance at $100 following an impressive four-week rally from its August lows near $76. We want to sell the 2011 Jan $90 calls now. Our original target was $99.50 but Friday's move to $98.13 was close enough. We will keep the 2012 Jan $100 calls but more conservative traders may want to take some money off the table with this position as well. We'll set a long-term target of $119 for the 2012 calls. Please note our new stop loss at $79.00.

Previous Comments:
BIDU is a very volatile stock. This is an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Keep your position size small to limit your risk. We have already taken profits on the 2011 calls. Our target for the 2012 calls is $119. Our new stop loss is $79.00.

Aug 02, 2010 - entry price on BIDU @ 83.50, option @ 8.00
symbol: BIDU1122A90 2011 JAN $90 call - exit now @ $14.75
-stop loss on BIDU @ xx.xx

- or -

Aug 02, 2010 - entry price on BIDU @ 83.50, option @ 13.00
symbol: BIDU1221A100 2012 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $19.80/20.10
-stop loss on BIDU @ 79.00

09/25/10 Take Profits on the 2011 calls, BIDU @ 97.83, option @ 14.75 (+84.3%)
09/25/10 New stop @ 79.00

Chart of BIDU:


Bucyrus Intl. - BUCY - close: 70.97 change: +2.30

BUCY managed another gain for the week even though it struggled with resistance near $72.00. Shares surged on Friday with a +3.3% rally thanks to the market's widespread strength. The stock remains overbought and under resistance at its 2010 highs near the $72-74 zone. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Even though the major market indices look poised to rally higher odds favor a pull back for BUCY. Look for support in the $66-64 zone.

Previous Comments:
We have taken profits once already near $70. Our second, longer-term target is $87.50 although we'll probably sell the rest of our 2011 calls before BUCY gets that high. Currently our stop loss is at $57.40.

Sep 01, 2010 - entry price on BUCY @ 61.00, option @ 8.50
symbol: BUCY1122A60 2011 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $14.05/14.25
-stop loss on BUCY @ 57.40

- or -

Sep 01, 2010 - entry price on BUCY @ 61.00, option @ 13.00
symbol: BUCY1221A70 2012 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $16.05/16.45
-stop loss on BUCY @ 57.40

09/18/10 Take Profits. We want to sell half of our 2011 Jan $60 calls.
BUCY is at $70.37. The calls are bid $13.85 (+62.9%) 09/18/10 New stop loss at $57.40

Chart of BUCY:


ConocoPhillips - COP - close: 56.36 change: +1.14

Crude oil prices really haven't moved much this past week but that didn't stop the oil sector from moving higher. Traders are still buying the dips in COP and the stock posted another gain for the week. There is potential resistance near $58.00 and at the $60 levels. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Prior Comments:
Our first target is $69.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is suggesting a long-term $79 target. We are using a stop loss at $47.99.

May 20, 2010 - entry price on COP @ 51.00, option @ 3.75
symbol: COP 11A55.00 2011 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $3.60/3.70
-stop loss on COP @ 47.99

- or -

May 20, 2010 - entry price on COP @ 51.00, option @ 4.75
symbol: COP 11A55.00 2012 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $4.40/4.50
-stop loss on COP @ 47.99

09/04/10 COP gave us a new entry with the move over $54.00
07/17/10 COP's bounce has failed. Consider an early exit!
07/03/10 More Conservative traders may want to exit early!

Chart of COP:


EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 21.64 change: +0.84

Wow! EMC is in breakout mode. After spending eight days in a row struggling with resistance near the $21.00 level shares of EMC have surged to new two-year highs. The market's volume has been terribly low but EMC saw volume that was double the norm on today's rally. While this is very encouraging the stock is still very overbought following a four-week surge from $18.00. I would not chase EMC at these levels.

Previous Comments:
Our first target is $22.50 (sell at least half). Our second, longer-term target is $24.75.

May 6, 2010 - entry price on EMC @ 18.25, option @ 1.40
symbol: EMC 11A20.00 2011 Jan $20 call - current bid/ask $2.38/2.42
-stop loss on EMC @ 17.80

- or -

May 6, 2010 - entry price on EMC @ 18.25, option @ 2.50
symbol: EMC 12A20.00 2012 Jan $20 call - current bid/ask $3.65/3.75
-stop loss on EMC @ 17.80

09/04/10 EMC has provided a new entry point with the move over $19
07/03/10 More Conservative Traders may want to exit early!

Chart of EMC:


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 126.69 change: +0.39

Concerns over quantitative easing and weakness in the U.S. dollar have pushed gold futures to new all-time highs near $1,300 an ounce. The GLD gold ETF has also hit new all-time highs over $126.00 a share. Gold continues to look very overbought and due for a correction but with the dollar sinking to new multi-month lows there is no guarantee we'll see a correction any time soon. At the same time the $1,300 level is a nice, big round-number psychological level that could spark some profit taking in gold. Normally when gold moves lower it does so very quickly. More conservative traders will want to seriously consider taking some money off the table right here and now, especially if you're holding the 2011 March calls. The trend is up but I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note our new stop loss at $116.45. I am adjusting our long-term exit target to $138.50.

Aug 6, 2010 - entry price on GLD @ 118.00, option @ 7.70
symbol: GLD1119C120 2011 Mar $120 call - current bid/ask $11.00/11.20
-stop loss on GLD @ 116.45

- or -

Aug 6, 2010 - entry price on GLD @ 118.00, option @ 10.75
symbol: GLD1221A130 2012 Jan $130 call - current bid/ask $13.45/13.75
-stop loss on GLD @ 116.45

09/25/10 New stop @ 116.45, new target 138.50

Weekly Chart of GLD:


Humana Inc. - HUM - close: 50.37 change: -1.07

Uh-oh! The HMO healthcare index has continued to inch higher and actually looks poised to breakout over significant resistance in the 1600 region. Yet shares of HUM have continued to correct lower. Support near $50 and its 30-dma seem to be holding up but I would rather see a sign of strength first before initiating new positions (like a close over $51 or $52). I remain long-term bullish on the stock.

Previous Comments:
Our long-term target is $59.50. We're using a stop loss at $44.90. I'm listing the 2011 January calls but I prefer the 2012 Jan. calls. FYI: The point-and-figure chart is forecasting a long-term target of $66.00.

Sep 17, 2010 - entry price on HUM @ 50.50, option @ 1.85
symbol: HUM1122A55 2011 Jan $55 call - current bid/ask $1.50/ 1.65
-stop loss on HUM @ 44.90

- or -

Sep 17, 2010 - entry price on HUM @ 50.50, option @ 6.40
symbol: HUM1221A55 2012 Jan $55 call - current bid/ask $5.70/ 6.20
-stop loss on HUM @ 44.90

Chart of HUM:


Infosys Technologies - INFY - close: 66.88 change: +1.47

The rally in INFY continues, stretching into its fourth week in a row. INFY rallied to another set of 10-year highs while the Indian Sensex index surged to new two-year highs this past week. Bank of America has turned cautious on Indian IT firms and actually downgraded INFY on Friday morning but it didn't have much impact on the stock price. BoA is concerned that the Indian companies are starting to look overvalued and a slowdown in the U.S. could hurt earnings. On a short-term basis I'm still expecting INFY to correct. Look for a dip or a bounce near $62 before considering new bullish positions. Please note that I'm raising the stop loss to $58.75.

Previous Comments:
Our long-term target is $79.00.

July 1, 2010 - entry price on INFY @ 59.00, option @ 7.50
symbol: INFY 11A60.00 2011 Jan $60 call - current bid/ask $7.90/ 8.90
-stop loss on INFY @ 58.75

- or -

July 1, 2010 - entry price on INFY @ 59.00, option @ 8.20
symbol: INFY 12A65.00 2012 Jan $65 call - current bid/ask $9.10/11.50
-stop loss on INFY @ 58.75

09/25/10 New stop @ 58.75

Chart of INFY:


McDonald's Corp. - MCD - close: 75.10 change: +0.46

Investors are looking for safety, security, and dividends. MCD continues to look attract and just raised its dividend. According to Barrons, MCD just raised its dividend for the 34th year in a row. The company bumped its quarterly dividend by 11% to $0.61 a share. That's good enough to give MCD a 3.3% annual yield. Overall I don't see any changes from my prior comments. The trend is up but MCD is still overbought. Wait for a correction toward $72 before considering new positions. More conservative traders may want to exit completely from the 2011 Jan. calls.

Prior Comments:
Keep your positions small. Our long-term target is $79.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart forecasting an $99 (long-term) target.

June 29, 2010 - entry price on MCD @ 66.50, option @ 2.65
symbol: MCD 11A70.00 2011 Jan $70 call - current bid/ask $6.30/ 6.40
-stop loss on MCD @ 66.75

- or -

June 29, 2010 - entry price on MCD @ 66.50, option @ 2.20
symbol: MCD 12A80.00 2012 Jan $80 call - current bid/ask $3.75/ 3.95
-stop loss on MCD @ 66.75

08/28/10 New stop @ 66.75
07/17/10 Take Profits! 2011 Jan $70 call @ 4.00 (+51%), 2012 $80 call @ 3.50 (+59%)

Chart of MCD:


Millicom Intl. - MICC - close: 100.00 change: +1.81

MICC displayed a little bit of volatility last week. The stock tagged a new 18-month high at $102.72 on Wednesday but traders sold into strength and shares hit $97.29 on Thursday morning. We were expecting the $100 region to act as resistance so this back and forth is not surprising. I am still expecting a correction. Now this could be a simple dip and bounce near $95.00 or it could be a correction back toward $90.00. Thus we're not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. If you haven't taken profits yet, what are you waiting for!

Previous Comments:
Keep your positions small to limit your risk. MICC is (normally) a volatile stock. We have already taken some money off the table as MICC neared $99. Our second, long-term target is the $109.00 levels. Our stop loss is at $86.40.

May 6, 2010 - entry price on MICC @ 80.00, option @ 8.60
symbol: MICC 11A90.00 2011 Jan $90 call - current bid/ask $12.80/13.90
-stop loss on MICC @ 86.40

09/04/10 Take Profits Early, MICC @ 98.79, option @ $12.90 (+50%)
plus new stop at $86.40

Chart of MICC:


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 12.26 change: +0.64

Take profits now! Shares of NVDA are soaring. The stock added more than +16% last week. The stock garnered an upgrade and a $14 price target but that wasn't the catalyst behind the big move higher. NVDA is rising on speculation it is a takeover target (many believe Oracle might buy the company). I am suggesting we sell our 2011 Jan. $10 calls right here. Our original target was $12.50 but let's not wait. We will keep our 2012 calls. More conservative traders may want to sell part of their 2012 position anyway to take some money off the table since NVDA is so overbought. I am raising our stop loss to $9.95. We should expect a correction toward the $11 region.

Previous Comments:
This remains an aggressive, higher-risk trade. NVDA has been struggling and sales growth has been slowing down but we are betting the worse has already been priced in for this stock. Keep your positions very small to limit our risk. Our first target is $12.50. Our second, longer-term target is $14.00.

Sep 13, 2010 - entry price on NVDA @ 10.75, option @ 1.58
symbol: NVDA1122A10 2011 Jan $10 call - sell it now, option @ 2.70 (+70.8%)
-stop loss on NVDA @ 9.95

- or -

Sep 13, 2010 - entry price on NVDA @ 10.75, option @ 1.69
symbol: NVDA1221A12.5 2012 Jan $12.50 call - current bid/ask $2.45/ 2.64
-stop loss on NVDA @ 9.95

09/25/10 Sell the 2011 calls, NVDA @ 12.26, option @ 2.70 (+70.8%)
09/25/10 new stop 9.95
09/13/10 Play Triggered @ $10.75

Chart of NVDA:


PEPSICO Inc. - PEP - close: 66.13 change: +0.34

Shares of PEP are virtually unchanged for the week. However, the stock is starting to drift lower, which is what we expected. I'm looking for a dip back toward $64 and the rising 200-dma. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. FYI: PEP is due to report earnings on Oct. 7th.

Previous Comments:
Our final target remains $72.25.

July 7th, 2009 - entry price on PEP @ 57.25, option @ $4.50(estimate)
symbol: VP-AL, 2011 $60.00 LEAP call - current bid/ask $6.85/7.05
-stop loss on PEP at $59.85

09/04/10 may want to consider new positions with 2012 calls
06/26/10 Repeat - More cautious traders will want to consider an exit.
06/05/10 More cautious traders may want to exit now to avoid a loss.
03/27/10 SELL HALF: PEP $ 66.59, Option @ $8.00 (+77.7%)

Chart of PEP:


Transocean Ltd. - RIG - close: 60.06 change: +0.59

Believe it or not shares of RIG posted a loss for the week. It was a small loss but shares have been under performing the oil services sector the last few days. The OSX index is testing technical resistance at the 200-dma and looks ready to breakout higher. Shares of RIG have been hovering near resistance around the $60 level. I would expect a pull back toward $55 and its 50-dma. Nimble traders can look for a new entry point near $55. Please note I'm adjusting the stop loss higher to $49.00.

Previous Comments:
We have already taken profits once at $59.00. Our secondary, longer-term target is $75.00. I suspect we will end up selling the 2011 calls before RIG hits $75.00. This is a very aggressive trade given the unknown risks associated with RIG's connection to the Gulf oil spill.

Jun 09, 2010 - entry price on RIG @ 43.50, option @ 6.50
symbol: RIG 11A50.00 2011 Jan $50 call - current bid/ask $11.80/12.00
-stop loss on RIG @ 49.00

- or -

Jun 09, 2010 - entry price on RIG @ 43.50, option @ 7.25
symbol: RIG 12A60.00 2012 Jan $60 call - current bid/ask $10.60/10.80
-stop loss on RIG @ 49.00

09/10/10 Target Hit @ 59.00, 2011 Jan $50 call @ $11.45 (+76.1%), the 2012 Jan $60 call @ $10.35 (+42.7%)

Chart of RIG:


Steel Dynamics - STLD - close: 14.48 change: +0.15

I've got good news and bad news. The good news is that STLD has made the jump from our watch list to the play list with a pull back to our trigger at $14.25 on Thursday. The bad news is that STLD has been under performing the market this past week. We were expecting a little correction in this steel stock but the relative weakness is worrisome. The stock bounced where we expected it to but now we want to see some confirmation. If you haven't launch positions yet you may want to wait for a new close over $15.00 before considering it. It does look like STLD has built a significant base over the last four months. If the manufacturing data expected this week is bullish then this stock should perform well.

We're starting with a stop loss at $12.90. Our first target is $19.00.

Sep 23, 2010 - entry price on STLD @ 14.25, option @ 1.29
symbol: STLD1119B15 2011 Feb $15 call - current bid/ask $ 1.15/ 1.25
-stop loss on STLD @ 12.90

- or -

Sep 23, 2010 - entry price on STLD @ 14.25, option @ 2.50
symbol: STLD1221A15 2012 Jan $15 call - current bid/ask $ 2.40/ 2.65
-stop loss on STLD @ 12.90

09/24/10 Play Triggered, STLD @ $14.25

Chart of STLD:


TASER Intl. - TASR - close: 3.98 change: +0.12

TASR had some news last week. The company made a sale with its evidence collection systems to a Minnesota police department. The Axon evidence collection device records video and audio of stops and arrests and then transfers them to an evidence management system. Unfortunately the stock really did not move on the news. As a matter of fact shares of TASR have been stuck in the $3.80-4.00 zone for over three weeks now. The market's strength in September has not had much affect on TASR and that is a problem! More conservative traders may want to start inching up their stop losses or just abandon ship. If TASR can't move with the S&P 500 up +9% and the NASDAQ up +10% in the last three weeks then when will TASR move? I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Previous Comments:
Our stop loss is at $3.45. Our long-term target is $4.90.

STRATEGY: Buy TASR stock (entry $3.69), stop loss $3.45

08/30/10 TASR opens Monday at $3.69 (entry point)
08/28/10 TASR listed as a new play

Chart of TASR:


CLOSED Plays

Intuitive Surgical - ISRG - close: 305.58 change: + 6.53

I'm giving up on ISRG. Not because I'm bullish on the stock. Longer-term I still think it trades lower. However, the market's bullishness is making this a dangerous put play. The stock almost hit our stop loss twice last week. I would rather close this play and look for new bullish candidates elsewhere.

This is a PUT play.

EXIT EARLY

Aug 20, 2010 - entry price on ISRG @ 299.00, option @ 14.00
symbol: ISRG 11m250 2011 Jan $250 PUT - current bid/ask $ 9.00/ 9.50
-stop loss on ISRG @ 311.00

09/25/10 Exit Early, ISRG @ 305.58, option @ 9.00 (-35.7%)

08/28/10 Take Profits, sell half @ $18.30 (+30.7%)

Chart of ISRG:


Occidental Petroleum - OXY - close: 76.30 change: +1.73

OXY still looks weak and only gained about 10 cents for the week. Yet I'm giving up on the stock as a leaps put play. The market is poised to move higher over the next few months. I would rather close this play now and look for new bullish candidates. More aggressive traders may want to let it ride.

- This is a PUT Play -

Exit Early

Aug 16, 2010 - entry price on OXY @ 74.00, option @ 2.17
symbol: OXY1122M60 2011 Jan $60 put - bid $ 1.12 (-48.3%)
-stop loss on OXY @ 80.25

- or -

Aug 16, 2010 - entry price on OXY @ 74.00, option @ 6.58
symbol: OXY1221M60 2012 Jan $60 put - current bid $ 5.35 (-18.6%)
-stop loss on OXY @ 80.25

09/25/10 - Exit Early, OXY@ 76.30

Chart of OXY: