Closed Plays


DE was closed last week.


Play Updates


Arch Coal Inc. - ACI - close: 33.04

02/19 update: Last Monday's rally in ACI slowly faded throughout the week so that shares closed virtually unchanged for the week. ACI appears to be consolidating in a neutral pattern of higher lows and lower highs. If the stock breaks down I would wait for a dip or a bounce near $28 and/or its 200-dma before considering new long-term bullish positions.

Our long-term target is $39.75. More aggressive traders could aim a lot higher, especially if you're holding the 2013 calls.

- Current Positions -
Nov 22, 2010 - entry price on ACI @ 30.15, option @ 3.90
symbol: ACI1221A35 2012 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 4.05/ 4.20

- or -

Nov 22, 2010 - entry price on ACI @ 30.15, option @ 5.15
symbol: ACI1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 6.50/ 7.30

01/22/11 New stop loss @ 27.75
01/15/11 New stop loss @ 28.90
01/01/11 new stop loss @ 29.75
12/25/10 New stop loss @ 28.75
11/22/10 Play opened. ACI @ $30.15

Current Target: $39.75
Current Stop loss: 27.75
Play Entered on: 11/22/10
Originally listed in the New Plays 11/20/10


Berkshire Hathaway - BRK.B - close: 85.05

02/19 update: The rally in shares of BRK.B continues although the stock is up less than a quarter for the week. Broken resistance near $84 should be support but I would look for a dip near the 50-dma before considering new bullish positions. Keep in mind that BRK.B is due to report earnings in very late February or the first week or two of March. We still don't have a confirmed earnings date yet. Cautious investors may not want to launch new positions until after we hear the results and see the market's reaction to the news.

- Current Positions -
Oct 29, 2010 - entry price on BRK.B @ 79.00, option @ 5.00
symbol: BRKB1221A90 2012 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 4.05/ 4.25

01/22/11 2011 January calls expired (-100%)
12/11/10 New stop loss @ 77.75.
11/20/10 New entry point on bounce from 200-dma
11/20/10 New stop @ 75.75
10/29/10 Play triggered on dip at $79.00.

Current Target: $ 99.00
Current Stop loss: 77.75
Play Entered on: 10/29/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 09/11/10


Compania de Minas Buenaventura - BVN - close: 44.84

02/19 update: It has been a dramatic couple of weeks for BVN. Two weeks ago we had an unexplained plunge toward support near $40. Now we have a huge rebound to mirror the prior decline with BVN up over +10% from its recent lows. The stock is back above its 200-dma but the rally failed near its early February highs around the $46 level. Rising commodity prices should be bullish for a miner like BVN.

On a short-term basis I would expect a little pull back toward the $43-42 zone. It's up to you if you want to buy call LEAPS on a dip or wait for a bounce from this area.

FYI: The AND ETF continues to show weakness but this past week the declines did not have any affect on shares of BVN so the early February similarities could have been a coincidence.

Earlier Comments:
I cautioned readers that our entry point at $45 was an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Our plan was to open small (half) positions to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Jan 5, 2011 - entry price on BVN @ 45.00, option @ 3.90
symbol: BVN1119F50 2011 JUN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.85/ 2.30

01/22: Adjust the stop loss to $38.95
01/05: Play is opened at $45.00 (small positions only)

Current Target: $ 54.75
Current Stop loss: 38.95
Play Entered on: 01/05/11
Originally listed on the Watch List --/--/--


Walt Disney Co. - DIS - close: 43.56

02/19 update: There is little change from my prior comments on DIS. The stock is consolidating sideways and added 15 cents for the week. DIS remains overbought and due for some profit taking. I would expect shares to fill the gap and retest support near $40.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Oct 27, 2010 - entry price on DIS @ 35.60, option @ 2.23
symbol: DIS1221A40 2012 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 6.00/ 6.10

- or -

Oct 27, 2010 - entry price on DIS @ 35.60, option @ 3.63
symbol: DIS1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 7.35/ 8.05

02/12/11 New stop loss @ 37.85
02/09/11 1st Target Hit. Options @ +137% and +103%
02/05/11 New stop loss @ 35.75
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 34.95
01/08/11 Target changed to $43.00 and $46.00
10/27/10 Play opened, DIS opened @ $35.60

Current Target(s): $43.00, 49.00
Current Stop loss: 37.85
Play Entered on: 10/27/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 10/24/10


Fiserv, Inc. - FISV - close: 63.52

02/19 update: The big headline for FISV last week was news that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway had sold all of its position in FISV. These headlines failed to have much impact on the stock and FISV actually short-term overbought given the two-week rally. FISV is now testing its 2011 highs. Readers may want to wait for dips near the rising 50-dma, which is also the bottom of the bullish channel, before initiating new positions.

FISV does not have LEAPS. The best we can do are the September calls. There is some short-term resistance near $63.00-63.50 but our long-term target is $74.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for FISV is very bullish and is forecasting a $100 (long-term) target.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 14, 2011 - entry price on FISV @ 62.30, option @ 3.20
symbol: FISV1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 3.40/ 3.70

Current Target: $74.75
Current Stop loss: 57.50
Play Entered on: 02/14/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/12/11


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 135.41

02/19 update: Recent weakness in the U.S. dollar has helped fuel gains for metal commodities like silver and gold. Silver is breaking out to new 30-year highs. Gold is trending higher but it's not seeing the same move that silver is. The GLD is back above its 50-dma and trading near potential resistance in the $135 area. My concern now is that a new lower higher now, in the $135-139 zone, would inspire the bears and shake the confidence of gold bulls. Meanwhile all the unrest spreading across the middle east is actually bullish for gold since many investors see it as a safe haven play when geopolitical risks are rising.

We still have an April put as a hedge should gold suddenly plunge lower on us. I am not suggesting new long-term bullish positions at this time. Currently our final long-term bullish target is $149.00.

FYI: Several weeks ago Goldman Sachs raised their 2011 price target on gold to $1,700 an ounce. Another firm raised their 2011 price target to $1,600 an ounce.

- Current Positions -
Aug 6, 2010 - entry price on GLD @ 118.00, option @ 10.75
symbol: GLD1221A130 2012 Jan $130 call - current bid/ask $13.05/13.35

- Short Term Put -

Jan 18, 2011 - entry price on GLD @ 133.63, option @ 1.70
symbol: GLD1116P125 2011 APR $125 PUT - current bid/ask $ 0.53/ 0.57

01/18/11 GLD opened at $133.63. April $125 put opened at $1.70
01/15/11 Added April Puts to protect ourselves from further declines.
01/08/11 Expecting a correction toward $125
11/09/10 Target hit - GLD opened at $138.70, 2011 Mar. Call opened @ $20.00 (+159%)
11/06/10 new stop @ 123.40
10/30/10 New stop @ 121.00. Readers may want to exit ahead of FOMC meeting
10/02/10 Sell half of the 2011 March calls, option @ 12.70 (+64.9%)
10/02/10 New stop $ 118.49
09/25/10 New stop @ 116.45, new target 138.50

Current Target(s): $149.00
Current Stop loss: 123.40
Play Entered on: 08/06/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 06/05/10


Humana Inc. - HUM - close: 61.44

02/19 update: It was a surprisingly bullish week for HUM. The stock rallied from short-term support near $58 and set new two-year closing highs. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Currently we only have half a position open.

- Current (half) Positions -
Sep 17, 2010 - entry price on HUM @ 50.50, option @ 6.40
symbol: HUM1221A55 2012 Jan $55 call - current bid/ask $10.40/11.10

02/12/11 Exit half of our 2012 calls now, bid $8.40 (+31.2%)
02/12/11 New stop loss @ 51.75
12/11/10 New stop loss @ 49.75
11/20/10 Entry point on the dip.
10/23/10 Exit (sell) the 2011 Jan. $55 calls, bid @ 4.40 (+137%)
10/23/10 New stop loss $ 48.75
10/16/10 New stop loss @ 47.40
10/11/10 New Entry point - HUM is breaking out past $51.00.

Current Target(s): $69.00
Current Stop loss: 51.75
Play Entered on: 09/17/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 09/04/10


L-3 Communications - LLL - close: 80.85

02/19 update: LLL spent most of the week consolidating sideways. Thus far traders are respecting the trend of higher lows but I would not launch new long-term bullish positions at this time. If LLL does see a correction I'm watching the $76-75 zone as support.

- Current Positions -
Nov 11, 2010 - entry price on LLL @ 71.87, option @ 5.80
symbol: LLL1221A75 2012 Jan $75 call - current bid/ask $ 9.40/ 9.60

02/12/11 New stop loss @ 73.75
02/05/11 There was no follow through lower.
01/29/11 LLL is correcting lower!
01/08/11 Take Profits Early. LLL @ 78.23. Option @ $8.50 (+46.5%)
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 69.90
11/11/10 Play triggered with LLL's gap open @ 71.87

Current Target(s): $79.50, 89.00
Current Stop loss: 73.75
Play Entered on: 11/11/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 11/06/10


MEDNAX Inc. - MD - close: 65.54

02/19 update: The easy part of this trade is over. Now comes the hard part. MD's oversold bounce to "fill the gap" is complete. Shares are now testing resistance in the $65-66 zone and will soon test its 30 and 50-dma, both overhead resistance. MD also looks short-term overbought given the two and a half week rebound. It would be natural to see some profit taking soon. Please note our new stop loss at $59.75. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Prior Comments:
MD doesn't have LEAPS so we had to settle for 2011 August calls. NOTE: Keep your position size small. The options on MD wide spreads, which puts us at a disadvantage!

- Current Positions -
Feb 03, 2011 - entry price on MD @ 60.33, option @ 3.60
symbol: MD1120H65 2011 AUG $65 call - current bid/ask $ 4.90/ 5.90

02/19 New stop loss @ 59.75
02/03 Trade triggered at $61.00, Option @ $3.60

Chart of MD:

Current Target(s): $69.50
Current Stop loss: 59.75
Play Entered on: 02/03/11
Originally listed on the Watch List 01/22/11


Microsoft Corp. - MSFT - close: 27.06

02/19 update: Traders bought the dip in MSFT near its 100-dma and exponential 200-dma last week. I am not convinced the correction is over but the broader market's rally higher could limit MSFT's decline. I'm not suggesting new long-term bullish positions at this time and would prefer to consider new positions on a dip or bounce near $26 and its long-term trendline of support.

- Current Positions -
Oct 18, 2010 - entry price on MSFT @ 25.59, option @ 3.30
symbol: MSFT1221A25 2012 Jan $25 call - current bid/ask $3.40/ 3.50

- or -

Oct 18, 2010 - entry price on MSFT @ 25.59, option @ 2.30
symbol: MSFT1319A30 2013 Jan $30 call - current bid/ask $2.20/ 2.34

01/08/11 New stop loss @ 25.90
12/11/10 New stop loss @ 24.40
11/20/10 Another Entry Point on the dip toward the 50-dma
10/28/10 MSFT delivers stronger than expected earnings.

Current Target(s): $31.00
Current Stop loss: 25.90
Play Entered on: 10/18/10
Originally listed in New Plays on 10/16/10


U S G Corp. - USG - close: 18.73

02/19 update: Target achieved but more on that in a moment. The rally in USG has stalled and shares appear to be digesting their gains. However, if you look hard enough USG could be forming a short-term head-and-shoulders pattern. These patterns are bearish and if USG breaks down under the $18.00 level it would forecast a drop toward $16.00. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

On February 14th USG opened strong and quickly rallied to $19.91 before paring its gains. Our original profit target was $19.90. However, last weekend I had suggested we take profits early and sell half on Monday morning instead of waiting for the stock to hit $19.90. Currently we only have half a position open. Our final, long-term target is still $24.75.

- Current Positions -
Dec 20, 2010 - entry price on USG @ 15.25, option @ 1.50*
symbol: USG1221A20 2012 Jan $20 call - current bid/ask $ 2.70/ 2.95

- or -

Dec 20, 2010 - entry price on USG @ 15.25, option @ 3.00
symbol: USG1319A20 2013 Jan $20 call - current bid/ask $ 4.10/ 4.90

02/12/11 Take Profits (sell half) Options @ +93.3%, +50%
02/12/11 New stop loss @ 15.45
12/20/10 Play triggered at $15.25
*entry price is an estimate.

Current Target(s): $--.--, 2nd target: 24.75
Current Stop loss: 15.45
Play Entered on: 12/20/10
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/11/10


WellPoint Inc. - WLP - close: 67.40

02/19 update: The rally in WLP is making significant progress. Shares broke out to new 52-week highs. The stock could easily hit our exit target at $69.75. More aggressive traders may want to aim higher but the $70.00 level should be significant resistance. The newsletter will exit completely at $69.75. I am raising our stop loss to $62.45.

- Current Positions -
Oct 14th, 2010 - entry price on WLP @ 57.75, option @ $5.25
symbol: WLP1221A65 2012 Jan $65 call - current bid/ask $ 8.00/ 8.20

02/19/11 New stop loss @ 62.45
02/12/11 New stop loss @ 57.25
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 54.90
12/18/10 New stop loss @ 53.75.
11/20/10 Another entry point on the bounce from the 200-dma
10/14/10 Play Triggered when WLP hit $57.75, option @ $5.25

Current Target(s): $69.75
Current Stop loss: 62.45
Play Entered on: 10/14/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 10/11/10


CLOSED Plays


Deere & Co - DE - close: 93.62 on Feb. 15th

02/19 update: Our plan was to exit our DE positions on Tuesday February 15th at the closing bell to avoid holding over earnings. DE closed at $93.62 and our option was trading near $11.40 (the low for the week).

On a short-term basis the trend in DE is still up and I would expect shares to rally toward $100 before seeing any significant profit taking. After hearing CAT's positive news on global sales we may want to keep CAT and DE on our radar screens for a correction.

- Current (very small) Positions -
Nov 26, 2010 - entry price on DE @ 75.50, option @ 4.75
symbol: DE1221A90 2012 JAN $90 call - closed @ $11.40 (+140%)

02/15/11 DE closed at $93.62. Option @ $11.40 (+140%)
02/12/11 Prepare to exit on Feb. 15th at the close.
02/12/11 New stop loss @ 91.75
02/05/11 New stop loss @ 84.00
01/15/11 New stop loss @ 78.90, Adjusted second target to $99.00
01/13/11 1st Target Hit $88.00. Option @ $10.00 (+110%)
12/25/10 New stop loss @ 74.80
12/04/10 DE offered another entry point with the move over $77.50
11/26/10 DE hit our trigger @ 75.50

Daily Chart of DE:

Current Target: $ 88.00, 99.00
Current Stop loss: 91.75
Play Entered on: 11/26/10
Originally listed on the Watch List --/--/--