Closed Plays


None. No closed plays this week.


Play Updates


Arch Coal Inc. - ACI - close: 33.40

02/26 update: ACI found some short-term support near $32 last week. Big picture nothing has changed. This stock is still consolidating sideways in a neutral pattern of higher lows and lower highs. If you prefer to buy on strength then look for a breakout past the $35 level. Officially I'm adjusting our strategy and not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our long-term target is $39.75. More aggressive traders could aim a lot higher, especially if you're holding the 2013 calls.

- Current Positions -
Nov 22, 2010 - entry price on ACI @ 30.15, option @ 3.90
symbol: ACI1221A35 2012 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 4.35/ 4.45

- or -

Nov 22, 2010 - entry price on ACI @ 30.15, option @ 5.15
symbol: ACI1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 6.45/ 7.05

01/22/11 New stop loss @ 27.75
01/15/11 New stop loss @ 28.90
01/01/11 new stop loss @ 29.75
12/25/10 New stop loss @ 28.75
11/22/10 Play opened. ACI @ $30.15

Current Target: $39.75
Current Stop loss: 27.75
Play Entered on: 11/22/10
Originally listed in the New Plays 11/20/10


AK Steel Holding - AKS - close: 15.76

02/26 update: The profit taking across the market last week hit the material names especially hard. Shares of AKS plunged to $15.82 on Tuesday and hit $15.21 on Wednesday. We had a buy-the-dip entry point at $16.10 so our trade was triggered on Tuesday's decline. Big picture demand for steel has been on the rise. That hasn't changed. I would still consider new positions now or you could wait for AKS to close over short-term resistance at $17.00. AKS can be volatile so our plan was to limit our risk by keeping our position size small. Our long-term target is the $25.00 area.

- Current Positions -
Feb 22, 2011 - entry price on AKS @ 16.10, option @ 1.55
symbol: AKS1221A20 2012 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 1.26/ 1.39

- or -

Feb 22, 2011 - entry price on AKS @ 16.10, option @ 2.95
symbol: AKS1319A20 2013 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 2.20/ 2.83

Chart of AKS:

Current Target: $25.00
Current Stop loss: 13.90
Play Entered on: 02/22/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/25/10


BE Aerospace Inc. - BEAV - close: 34.34

02/26 update: We have been waiting for BEAV to correct toward its long-term trendline of support. The market weakness last week was just the catalyst needed to push shares toward our buy-the-dip entry point at $34.00 (triggered on Wednesday). BEAV managed a bounce at the exponential 200-dma. The correction may not be over yet and BEAV could test additional support at the simple 200-dma near $32.00. I would wait for another dip into the $33-32 zone before considering new bullish positions or readers could wait and buy a bounce. Please note I'm adjusting our stop loss from $29.90 up to $31.49.

If you do open new positions I would buy the Octobers (just released) instead of the Julys.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on BEAV @ 34.00, option @ 2.75
symbol: BEAV1116G35 2011 JUL $35 call - current bid/ask $ 2.80/ 3.00

Chart of BEAV:

Current Target: $40.00
Current Stop loss: 31.49
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/22/11


Berkshire Hathaway - BRK.B - close: 84.87

02/26 update: BRK.B could be poised to rally on Monday. Berkshire Hathaway reported earnings on Saturday. Based on the Class A shares, analysts were expecting a profit of $1,690 a share. Berkshire delivered $2,656 a share. With the company's earnings report Warren Buffett released his letter to shareholders. Mr. Buffett remains bullish on America and said his company is eager to make more acquisitions.

Readers may want to add to positions if/when BRK.B breaks out past the $85-86 level of resistance. You can buy the 2012 or 2013 call LEAPS.

- Current Positions -
Oct 29, 2010 - entry price on BRK.B @ 79.00, option @ 5.00
symbol: BRKB1221A90 2012 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 4.45/ 4.65

01/22/11 2011 January calls expired (-100%)
12/11/10 New stop loss @ 77.75.
11/20/10 New entry point on bounce from 200-dma
11/20/10 New stop @ 75.75
10/29/10 Play triggered on dip at $79.00.

Chart of BRK.B:

Current Target: $ 99.00
Current Stop loss: 77.75
Play Entered on: 10/29/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 09/11/10


Compania de Minas Buenaventura - BVN - close: 45.63

02/26 update: BVN just reported earnings on Feb. 25th. The company missed estimates by 3 cents but crushed the revenue estimate. Overall shares did not move much on the news. The stock did see a spike higher last week that failed near technical resistance at its 100-dma. I would not launch new positions at this time. Wait and watch for BVN to retest and bounce from the $44 area. We also want to keep an eye on gold. If gold can breakout past its 2010 highs then gold could fuel the next leg higher in the mining stocks.

Earlier Comments:
I cautioned readers that our entry point at $45 was an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Our plan was to open small (half) positions to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Jan 5, 2011 - entry price on BVN @ 45.00, option @ 3.90
symbol: BVN1119F50 2011 JUN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.05/ 2.55

01/22: Adjust the stop loss to $38.95
01/05: Play is opened at $45.00 (small positions only)

Current Target: $ 54.75
Current Stop loss: 38.95
Play Entered on: 01/05/11
Originally listed on the Watch List --/--/--


BorgWarner Inc. - BWA - close: 76.95

02/26 update: Our aggressive, higher-risk trade on BWA has been opened. Shares hit our buy-the-dip entry point at $74.00 on Feb. 23rd. You got another chance the very next day with another dip at $74.00. Now BWA is rebounding and look poised to run towards the recent resistance at $80.00.

BWA has been volatile lately so we have a wide (aggressive) stop loss at $69.75. More conservative traders may want to use a stop closer to the $73.00 area. Our targets are optimistic at $88.00 and at $99.00 but keep in mind our plan was to use small positions to limit our risk.

I would still consider new positions now on the bounce and would pick the October calls instead of the Julys but you'd have to stomach some pretty ugly spreads.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on BWA @ 74.00, option @ 4.20
symbol: BWA1116G80 2011 JUL $80 call - current bid/ask $ 4.20/ 5.60

Chart of BWA:

Current Target: $88.00, $99.00
Current Stop loss: 69.75
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/05/11


Citigroup, Inc. - C - close: 4.70

02/26 update: On a short-term basis the action in Citigroup last week is an ugly breakdown from its trading range. Yet bigger picture the decline provided us an entry point to buy C near its long-term trendline of higher lows. The stock hit our buy-the-dip entry at $4.60 on Feb. 23rd. I would still consider new positions now at current levels.

Depending on your personal tolerance for risk you'll want to consider buying the stock (same price as many LEAPS) or actually buying the call LEAPS (greater risk/reward).

Of course you don't have to buy a big position now. You could slowly scale into your position a little at a time.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on Citigroup stock (C) @ 4.60

- or -

Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on C @ 4.60, option @ $0.48
symbol: C1221A5 2012 JAN $5 call - current bid/ask $ 0.46/ 0.48

- or -

Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on C @ 4.60, option @ $0.85
symbol: C1319A5 2013 JAN $5 call - current bid/ask $ 0.82/ 0.83

Chart of C:

Current Target: $6.50, and $7.75
Current Stop loss: 4.19
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/19/11


Compass Minerals - CMP - close: 92.00

02/26 update: Material stocks of any kind were hit hard last week during the market's sell-off. Shares of CMP fell to an intraday low of $88.86 on Feb. 23rd. Traders bought the dip again the very next day at $88.70. Our buy-the-dip trigger was hit at $90.50 and I would still consider new positions now on the bounce. I'm setting our upside, exit targets at $99.00 and $109.50. We should expect the $100.00 mark to act as round-number, psychological resistance. Our plan was to limit our risk by using small positions.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on CMP @ 90.50, option @ $ 4.70
symbol: CMP1117I100 2011 SEP $100 call - current bid/ask $ 4.30/ 4.80

Chart of CMP:

Current Target: $99.00 and $109.50
Current Stop loss: 87.00
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/25/10


Walt Disney Co. - DIS - close: 42.95

02/26 update: DIS is still holding up pretty well in spite of the market's recent sell-off. I would still expect shares to eventually fill the gap and probably retest the $40 level as support. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Oct 27, 2010 - entry price on DIS @ 35.60, option @ 2.23
symbol: DIS1221A40 2012 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 5.70/ 5.80

- or -

Oct 27, 2010 - entry price on DIS @ 35.60, option @ 3.63
symbol: DIS1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 7.30/ 7.65

02/12/11 New stop loss @ 37.85
02/09/11 1st Target Hit. Options @ +137% and +103%
02/05/11 New stop loss @ 35.75
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 34.95
01/08/11 Target changed to $43.00 and $46.00
10/27/10 Play opened, DIS opened @ $35.60

Current Target(s): $43.00, 49.00
Current Stop loss: 37.85
Play Entered on: 10/27/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 10/24/10


Brinker International - EAT - close: 23.82

02/26 update: The market pull back was just enough to pull EAT toward support near $22 and its 5-dma. Our buy-the-dip trigger was hit at $22.50 on Feb. 23rd. If you missed the entry point I would still be tempted to buy this bounce or you can wait for a breakout over resistance near $25.00. I am raising our stop loss from $19.90 to $20.95. Our exit target is $29.50. FYI: If you open new positions I would prefer the October calls (just released) instead of the Julys.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on EAT @ 22.50, option @ $ 1.10
symbol: EAT1116G25 2011 JUL $25 call - current bid/ask $ 1.20/ 1.75

Chart of EAT:

Current Target: $29.50
Current Stop loss: 20.95
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/12/11


Fiserv, Inc. - FISV - close: 63.00

02/26 update: FISV held up very well only losing 50 cents for the week. Traders bought the dip near its rising 40 and 50-dma. FISV looks poised to breakout past resistance near the $64 level soon. If you missed the entry point on the dip consider waiting for the breakout. Our target is $74.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for FISV is very bullish and is forecasting a $100 (long-term) target.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 14, 2011 - entry price on FISV @ 62.30, option @ 3.20
symbol: FISV1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 3.30/ 3.60

Current Target: $74.75
Current Stop loss: 57.50
Play Entered on: 02/14/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/12/11


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 137.38

02/26 update: Escalating violence in Libya has turned into a civil war. Rising geopolitical tensions tend to push gold prices higher as investors seek a "safe haven" investment. The GLD has rallied almost nonstop the month of February and is now nearing its 2010 highs near the $138-139 zone. A breakout past this level would be very bullish but the GLD might pull back first and need to build up some steam. Things could change if violence continues to spread across the Mideast.

I strongly suspect that our April put, which we bought as a hedge against a sudden drop in gold, will expire worthless given the new rally.

Please note that I am raising our stop loss to $127.00. Currently our final long-term bullish target is $149.00.

FYI: Several weeks ago Goldman Sachs raised their 2011 price target on gold to $1,700 an ounce. Another firm raised their 2011 price target to $1,600 an ounce.

- Current Positions -
Aug 6, 2010 - entry price on GLD @ 118.00, option @ 10.75
symbol: GLD1221A130 2012 Jan $130 call - current bid/ask $15.35/16.00

- Short Term Put -

Jan 18, 2011 - entry price on GLD @ 133.63, option @ 1.70
symbol: GLD1116P125 2011 APR $125 PUT - current bid/ask $ 0.22/ 0.24

02/26/11 New stop loss @ 127.00
01/18/11 GLD opened at $133.63. April $125 put opened at $1.70
01/15/11 Added April Puts to protect ourselves from further declines.
01/08/11 Expecting a correction toward $125
11/09/10 Target hit - GLD opened at $138.70, 2011 Mar. Call opened @ $20.00 (+159%)
11/06/10 new stop @ 123.40
10/30/10 New stop @ 121.00. Readers may want to exit ahead of FOMC meeting
10/02/10 Sell half of the 2011 March calls, option @ 12.70 (+64.9%)
10/02/10 New stop $ 118.49
09/25/10 New stop @ 116.45, new target 138.50

Chart of GLD:

Current Target(s): $149.00
Current Stop loss: 127.00
Play Entered on: 08/06/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 06/05/10


Goodyear Tire - GT - close: 13.90

02/26 update: Our GT play is off to a good start. The market's sell-off pulled shares back toward its 20-dma. GT hit our buy-the-dip trigger at $13.50 on Feb. 23rd. We got a second chance to buy the dip on the 24th and if you missed it I would still consider new positions now on the bounce. We have a stop loss at $11.75 but more conservative traders may want to raise their stops. Our long-term target is $18.50.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on GT @ 13.50, option @ 1.90
symbol: GT1221A15 2012 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 2.00/ 2.10

- or -

Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on GT @ 13.50, option @ 2.90
symbol: GT1319A15 2013 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 2.90/ 3.20

Chart of GT:

Current Target: $18.50
Current Stop loss: 11.75
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/19/11


Humana Inc. - HUM - close: 62.60

02/26 update: HUM continues to show relative strength. The stock spiked to $67.00 on Feb. 22nd following an analyst upgrade that morning. The rest of the market was plunging at that time so it was tough for HUM to hold on to those gains. Shares still managed to post a gain for the week but I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target to exit is the $69.00 mark. Currently we only have half a position open.

Please note our new stop loss at $55.90.

- Current (half) Positions -
Sep 17, 2010 - entry price on HUM @ 50.50, option @ 6.40
symbol: HUM1221A55 2012 Jan $55 call - current bid/ask $11.40/12.50

02/26/11 New stop loss @ 55.90
02/12/11 Exit half of our 2012 calls now, bid $8.40 (+31.2%)
02/12/11 New stop loss @ 51.75
12/11/10 New stop loss @ 49.75
11/20/10 Entry point on the dip.
10/23/10 Exit (sell) the 2011 Jan. $55 calls, bid @ 4.40 (+137%)
10/23/10 New stop loss $ 48.75
10/16/10 New stop loss @ 47.40
10/11/10 New Entry point - HUM is breaking out past $51.00.

Current Target(s): $69.00
Current Stop loss: 55.90
Play Entered on: 09/17/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 09/04/10


L-3 Communications - LLL - close: 79.95

02/26 update: Upward momentum in LLL has paused but the stock held up very well considering the market's sell-off last week. Shares are consolidating sideways on either side of the $80 level. I have been expecting a correction toward the $76-75 zone but I'm starting to think LLL might be able to break higher if the market resumes its up trend. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Nov 11, 2010 - entry price on LLL @ 71.87, option @ 5.80
symbol: LLL1221A75 2012 Jan $75 call - current bid/ask $ 9.30/ 9.60

02/12/11 New stop loss @ 73.75
02/05/11 There was no follow through lower.
01/29/11 LLL is correcting lower!
01/08/11 Take Profits Early. LLL @ 78.23. Option @ $8.50 (+46.5%)
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 69.90
11/11/10 Play triggered with LLL's gap open @ 71.87

Current Target(s): $79.50, 89.00
Current Stop loss: 73.75
Play Entered on: 11/11/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 11/06/10


MEDNAX Inc. - MD - close: 65.12

02/26 update: MD only lost about 40 cents for the week. While the relative strength is encouraging I remain wary. The stock is testing resistance near $65-66 and it 30-dma. The 50-dma is also directly overhead. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Prior Comments:
MD doesn't have LEAPS so we had to settle for 2011 August calls. NOTE: Keep your position size small. The options on MD wide spreads, which puts us at a disadvantage!

- Current Positions -
Feb 03, 2011 - entry price on MD @ 60.33, option @ 3.60
symbol: MD1120H65 2011 AUG $65 call - current bid/ask $ 5.00/ 5.50

02/19 New stop loss @ 59.75
02/03 Trade triggered at $61.00, Option @ $3.60

Current Target(s): $69.50
Current Stop loss: 59.75
Play Entered on: 02/03/11
Originally listed on the Watch List 01/22/11


Microsoft Corp. - MSFT - close: 26.55

02/26 update: The correction in MSFT continues. We have been expecting MSFT to pull back toward the $26.00 level and its 200-dma. I would wait for the dip near $26 or a bounce from this level before considering new bullish positions. I'm tweaking our stop loss and moving it from $25.90 to $25.75.

- Current Positions -
Oct 18, 2010 - entry price on MSFT @ 25.59, option @ 3.30
symbol: MSFT1221A25 2012 Jan $25 call - current bid/ask $3.15/ 3.25

- or -

Oct 18, 2010 - entry price on MSFT @ 25.59, option @ 2.30
symbol: MSFT1319A30 2013 Jan $30 call - current bid/ask $2.07/ 2.16

02/26/11 Adjusted stop loss to $25.75
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 25.90
12/11/10 New stop loss @ 24.40
11/20/10 Another Entry Point on the dip toward the 50-dma
10/28/10 MSFT delivers stronger than expected earnings.

Current Target(s): $31.00
Current Stop loss: 25.75
Play Entered on: 10/18/10
Originally listed in New Plays on 10/16/10


U S G Corp. - USG - close: 16.89

02/26 update: USG quickly followed the market lower last week. Shares saw a high-volume plunge back toward prior support near $16.00. This support is holding but I'm somewhat reluctant to open new positions at this time. Currently we only have half a position open. Our final, long-term target is still $24.75.

- Current Positions -
Dec 20, 2010 - entry price on USG @ 15.25, option @ 1.50*
symbol: USG1221A20 2012 Jan $20 call - current bid/ask $ 2.00/ 2.15

- or -

Dec 20, 2010 - entry price on USG @ 15.25, option @ 3.00
symbol: USG1319A20 2013 Jan $20 call - current bid/ask $ 3.40/ 3.70

02/12/11 Take Profits (sell half) Options @ +93.3%, +50%
02/12/11 New stop loss @ 15.45
12/20/10 Play triggered at $15.25
*entry price is an estimate.

Current Target(s): $--.--, 2nd target: 24.75
Current Stop loss: 15.45
Play Entered on: 12/20/10
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/11/10


WellPoint Inc. - WLP - close: 66.52

02/26 update: WLP lost less than a dollar for the week. Traders bought the dip near $65.00 but volume has been light on the bounce. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. We have a stop loss at $62.45 and our final target to exit is $69.75.

- Current Positions -
Oct 14th, 2010 - entry price on WLP @ 57.75, option @ $5.25
symbol: WLP1221A65 2012 Jan $65 call - current bid/ask $ 7.35/ 7.55

02/19/11 New stop loss @ 62.45
02/12/11 New stop loss @ 57.25
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 54.90
12/18/10 New stop loss @ 53.75.
11/20/10 Another entry point on the bounce from the 200-dma
10/14/10 Play Triggered when WLP hit $57.75, option @ $5.25

Current Target(s): $69.75
Current Stop loss: 62.45
Play Entered on: 10/14/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 10/11/10