Closed Plays


None. No closed plays this week.


Play Updates


Arch Coal Inc. - ACI - close: 35.99

03/05 update: Coal stocks were trending higher last week. ACI broke out from its two-month consolidation but the rally paused near its January highs. I would expect a dip back toward the $34 area. Volume was improving on the rally. I would be tempted to buy calls on another bounce from $34.00. Please note our new stop loss at $29.75.

Our long-term target is $39.75. More aggressive traders could aim a lot higher, especially if you're holding the 2013 calls.

- Current Positions -
Nov 22, 2010 - entry price on ACI @ 30.15, option @ 3.90
symbol: ACI1221A35 2012 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 5.95/ 6.10

- or -

Nov 22, 2010 - entry price on ACI @ 30.15, option @ 5.15
symbol: ACI1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 8.30/ 8.95

03/05/11 New stop loss @ 29.75
01/22/11 New stop loss @ 27.75
01/15/11 New stop loss @ 28.90
01/01/11 new stop loss @ 29.75
12/25/10 New stop loss @ 28.75
11/22/10 Play opened. ACI @ $30.15

Current Target: $39.75
Current Stop loss: 27.75
Play Entered on: 11/22/10
Originally listed in the New Plays 11/20/10


AK Steel Holding - AKS - close: 15.52

03/05 update: Hmm... there was a mix of bullish and bearish analyst comments on the steel names last week. Shares of AKS really didn't move much and consolidated sideways. Yet on a very short-term basis the stock has a bearish trend of lower highs. At this point I'd rather buy calls on a rally past the $16.40-16.50 zone. AKS can be volatile so our plan was to limit our risk by keeping our position size small. Our long-term target is the $25.00 area.

- Current Positions -
Feb 22, 2011 - entry price on AKS @ 16.10, option @ 1.55
symbol: AKS1221A20 2012 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 1.21/ 1.26

- or -

Feb 22, 2011 - entry price on AKS @ 16.10, option @ 2.95
symbol: AKS1319A20 2013 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 2.12/ 2.29

Current Target: $25.00
Current Stop loss: 13.90
Play Entered on: 02/22/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/25/10


Apache Corp. - APA - close: 122.62

03/05 update: APA is our new play from last weekend. The stock opened stronger at $123.49 on Monday only to plunge during Tuesday's market decline. Traders bought the dip on Wednesday at $119.04, which is somewhat consistent with the pattern of higher lows. Traders were still buying the dip on Friday. I would still consider new bullish positions now at current levels.

Our long-term target is $143.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for APA is bullish with a $129 target.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on APA @ 123.49, option @ 8.00
symbol: APA1221A140 2012 JAN $140 call - current bid/ask $ 7.45/ 7.65

- or -

Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on APA @ 123.49, option @ 14.50
symbol: APA1319A140 2013 JAN $140 call - current bid/ask $14.20/15.55

Current Target: $143.50
Current Stop loss: 114.75
Play Entered on: 02/28/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/26/11


BE Aerospace Inc. - BEAV - close: 35.50

03/05 update: So far so good. Technical support near the exponential 200-dma and the long-term trend of higher lows is holding up. BEAV garnered some supportive analyst comments earlier in the week too. Shares were seeing an oversold bounce late in the week. It's probably not too late to consider bullish positions but there is a chance BEAV will retest the $34.50-34.00 zone again. Shares do have short-term overhead resistance at $36.00 and its 50-dma.

If you do open new positions I would buy the October calls.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on BEAV @ 34.00, option @ 2.75
symbol: BEAV1116G35 2011 JUL $35 call - current bid/ask $ 3.00/ 3.50

Current Target: $40.00
Current Stop loss: 31.49
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/22/11


Berkshire Hathaway - BRK.B - close: 85.50

03/05 update: Shares of BRK.B did indeed rally following its better than expected earnings news last weekend. Bullish comments from the company's founder, Warren Buffett, did not hurt. The stock saw some profit taking but found support near the $85.00 level. I would seriously consider new long-term positions here. (FYI: 2013 calls are available)

- Current Positions -
Oct 29, 2010 - entry price on BRK.B @ 79.00, option @ 5.00
symbol: BRKB1221A90 2012 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 4.75/ 4.95

01/22/11 2011 January calls expired (-100%)
12/11/10 New stop loss @ 77.75.
11/20/10 New entry point on bounce from 200-dma
11/20/10 New stop @ 75.75
10/29/10 Play triggered on dip at $79.00.

Current Target: $ 99.00
Current Stop loss: 77.75
Play Entered on: 10/29/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 09/11/10


Compania de Minas Buenaventura - BVN - close: 46.06

03/05 update: Gold and silver were surging to new highs and yet shares of BVN stalled. The stock appears stuck in the 445-48 range. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
I cautioned readers that our entry point at $45 was an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Our plan was to open small (half) positions to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Jan 5, 2011 - entry price on BVN @ 45.00, option @ 3.90
symbol: BVN1119F50 2011 JUN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.10/ 2.35

01/22: Adjust the stop loss to $38.95
01/05: Play is opened at $45.00 (small positions only)

Current Target: $ 54.75
Current Stop loss: 38.95
Play Entered on: 01/05/11
Originally listed on the Watch List --/--/--


BorgWarner Inc. - BWA - close: 77.75

03/05 update: It turned out to be a relatively quiet week for BWA in spite of all the market volatility. Shares were consolidating sideways under resistance near the $78 level. Yet BWA continues to see a bullish pattern of higher lows. This would suggest the stock is poised to break out higher soon. I do not see any changes from my prior comments.

Prior Comments:
BWA has been volatile lately so we have a wide (aggressive) stop loss at $69.75. More conservative traders may want to use a stop closer to the $73.00 area. Our targets are optimistic at $88.00 and at $99.00 but keep in mind our plan was to use small positions to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on BWA @ 74.00, option @ 4.20
symbol: BWA1116G80 2011 JUL $80 call - current bid/ask $ 4.60/ 5.40

Current Target: $88.00, $99.00
Current Stop loss: 69.75
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/05/11


Citigroup, Inc. - C - close: 4.54

03/05 update: It looks like the correction in C is not over yet. We got several more chances to buy the dip near the $4.60 level. Then on Friday shares of Citigroup and Goldman Sachs were both downgraded by Bank of America over worries about their Q1 results. C reacted with a -2.99% loss and a breakdown under its 100-dma to new two-month lows. I would now expect a drop toward $4.40 and possibly its 200-dma (near $4.25). If we actually see Citigroup trade down into the $4.40-4.25 zone I would buy it (or call LEAPS). We have a stop loss at $4.19.

Depending on your personal tolerance for risk you'll want to consider buying the stock (same price as many LEAPS) or actually buying the call LEAPS (greater risk/reward).

Of course you don't have to buy a big position now. You could slowly scale into your position a little at a time.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on Citigroup stock (C) @ 4.60

- or -

Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on C @ 4.60, option @ $0.48
symbol: C1221A5 2012 JAN $5 call - current bid/ask $ 0.37/ 0.39

- or -

Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on C @ 4.60, option @ $0.85
symbol: C1319A5 2013 JAN $5 call - current bid/ask $ 0.73/ 0.74

Current Target: $6.50, and $7.75
Current Stop loss: 4.19
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/19/11


Compass Minerals - CMP - close: 90.45

03/05 update: The action in CMP is not very inspiring. Quite honestly the stock looks poised to breakdown. I will point out that CMP has not yet broken its bullish trend of higher lows. Thurs this dip near $90.00 could be used as a new bullish entry point.

I'm setting our upside, exit targets at $99.00 and $109.50. We should expect the $100.00 mark to act as round-number, psychological resistance. Our plan was to limit our risk by using small positions.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on CMP @ 90.50, option @ $ 4.70
symbol: CMP1117I100 2011 SEP $100 call - current bid/ask $ 3.80/ 4.10

Chart of CMP:

Current Target: $99.00 and $109.50
Current Stop loss: 87.00
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/25/10


Canadian Natl. Railway Co. - CNI - close: 73.86

03/05 update: Transportation stocks have struggled with the sharp rise in oil prices. Yet the railroad stocks have been somewhat immune to the effect of oil. That won't last forever if oil continues to climb but right now there appears to be no fear oil in many of the railroad charts. Shares of CNI opened at $72.39 on Monday and the stock closed at new all-time highs by Friday. Readers can open positions now or wait for a dip anywhere in the $72.00-70.00 zone. Our long-term target is $89.00.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on CNI @ 72.39, option @ 2.90
symbol: CNI1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 3.20/ 3.50

Current Target: $89.00
Current Stop loss: 67.00
Play Entered on: 02/28/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/26/11


Walt Disney Co. - DIS - close: 43.55

03/05 update: DIS continues to show resilience but the stock is struggling with resistance near the $44 level. Bigger picture I would still look for a correction toward $40 eventually. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Oct 27, 2010 - entry price on DIS @ 35.60, option @ 2.23
symbol: DIS1221A40 2012 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 6.15/ 6.25

- or -

Oct 27, 2010 - entry price on DIS @ 35.60, option @ 3.63
symbol: DIS1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 7.75/ 8.00

02/12/11 New stop loss @ 37.85
02/09/11 1st Target Hit. Options @ +137% and +103%
02/05/11 New stop loss @ 35.75
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 34.95
01/08/11 Target changed to $43.00 and $46.00
10/27/10 Play opened, DIS opened @ $35.60

Current Target(s): $43.00, 49.00
Current Stop loss: 37.85
Play Entered on: 10/27/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 10/24/10


Brinker International - EAT - close: 23.82

03/05 update: Nothing has changed for us with EAT. The stock actually closed unchanged on the week as well. I would consider new bullish positions now or you can wait for a breakout past the $25.00 level. Our stop loss is at $20.95. Our exit target is $29.50. FYI: If you open new positions I would prefer the October calls instead of the Julys.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on EAT @ 22.50, option @ $ 1.10
symbol: EAT1116G25 2011 JUL $25 call - current bid/ask $ 1.20/ 1.55

Current Target: $29.50
Current Stop loss: 20.95
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/12/11


Ford Motor Co - F - close: 14.42

03/05 update: The major U.S. automakers reported strong vehicle sales figures this past week. Yet that didn't stop shares of F from slipping to new relative lows and breaking short-term support near $14.50 and its exponential 200-dma. Rival GM also broke down to new lows under its IPO price.

A week ago I suggested that we buy call LEAPS in Ford if we see a dip near $14.00 and its 200-dma. It looks like that could happen soon and I would still consider new positions now at current levels.

I'm suggesting a stop loss at $12.40. Our long-term exit targets are $19.75 and $24.00.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on F @ 15.29, option @ 2.17
symbol: F1221A15 2012 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 1.66/ 1.68

- or -

Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on F @ 15.29, option @ 1.50
symbol: F1319A20 2013 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 1.21/ 1.25

Current Target: $19.75, and $24.00
Current Stop loss: 12.40
Play Entered on: 02/28/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/26/11


Fiserv, Inc. - FISV - close: 61.47

03/05 update: Be careful here. FISV has been underperforming. Shares slipped to technical support near the rising 50-dma on Friday. A close under the 50-dma would be bearish but nimble traders could look to buy a dip or bounce near $60.00, which should be round-number support. More conservative traders will want to seriously consider raising their stop loss closer to the $60.00 level. I am somewhat reluctant to open new positions at this time.

Our target is $74.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for FISV is very bullish and is forecasting a $100 (long-term) target.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 14, 2011 - entry price on FISV @ 62.30, option @ 3.20
symbol: FISV1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 2.50/ 2.80

Current Target: $74.75
Current Stop loss: 57.50
Play Entered on: 02/14/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/12/11


First Solar, Inc. - FSLR - close: 146.57

03/05 update: We anticipated that FSLR would see a post-earnings sell-off. Shares did indeed hit our buy-the-dip trigger at $150.00, which occurred on Feb. 28th. What we did not anticipate was all the confusion over new regulations in Italy over that country's solar power incentives. The headlines regarding Italy kept a lid on solar energy names this past week. Shares of FSLR were stuck in the $145-150 zone.

We currently have a stop loss at $139.00. More aggressive traders may want to put their stop under the simple 200-dma near $135.00. I suspect that FSLR would hold at support near $140 and after this past week the $145 level might be new support. Readers have a choice. I would either wait for a dip near $140.00 as our next bullish entry point or wait for a new rally back above the $150.00 level as a bullish entry point.

Prior Comments:
Readers should consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Our long-term target is $195.00.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on FSLR @ 150.00, option @ 16.20
symbol: FSLR1221A170 2012 JAN $170 call - current bid/ask $14.10/14.50

- or -

Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on FSLR @ 150.00, option @ 25.35
symbol: FSLR1319A180 2013 JAN $180 call - current bid/ask $18.75/23.15

Chart of FSLR:

Current Target: $195.00
Current Stop loss: $139.00
Play Entered on: 02/28/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/12/11


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 139.35

03/05 update: Escalating violence in Libya and protests in the Mideast have helped lift gold prices to new all-time highs. The GLD hit a new high at $140.55 on March 2nd. The commodity has been steadily marching higher since its late January low. While the GLD is short-term overbought the trend is very much higher. Silver has actually been outperforming gold by a significant margin with silver surging to new 30-year highs.

Big picture the path of least resistance for gold is still higher. I wouldn't be surprised to see some profit taking but nothing to serious. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

I strongly suspect that our April put, which we bought as a hedge against a sudden drop in gold, will expire worthless given the new rally.

Currently our final long-term bullish target is $149.00.

FYI: Several weeks ago Goldman Sachs raised their 2011 price target on gold to $1,700 an ounce. Another firm raised their 2011 price target to $1,600 an ounce.

- Current Positions -
Aug 6, 2010 - entry price on GLD @ 118.00, option @ 10.75
symbol: GLD1221A130 2012 Jan $130 call - current bid/ask $16.80/17.35

- Short Term Put -

Jan 18, 2011 - entry price on GLD @ 133.63, option @ 1.70
symbol: GLD1116P125 2011 APR $125 PUT - current bid/ask $ 0.15/ 0.17

02/26/11 New stop loss @ 127.00
01/18/11 GLD opened at $133.63. April $125 put opened at $1.70
01/15/11 Added April Puts to protect ourselves from further declines.
01/08/11 Expecting a correction toward $125
11/09/10 Target hit - GLD opened at $138.70, 2011 Mar. Call opened @ $20.00 (+159%)
11/06/10 new stop @ 123.40
10/30/10 New stop @ 121.00. Readers may want to exit ahead of FOMC meeting
10/02/10 Sell half of the 2011 March calls, option @ 12.70 (+64.9%)
10/02/10 New stop $ 118.49
09/25/10 New stop @ 116.45, new target 138.50

Current Target(s): $149.00
Current Stop loss: 127.00
Play Entered on: 08/06/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 06/05/10


Goodyear Tire - GT - close: 13.68

03/05 update: GT spent the week consolidating sideways. It looks like shares might test the $13.00 level, which readers could use as an entry point to launch new positions. We have a stop loss at $11.75 but more conservative traders may want to raise their stops. Our long-term target is $18.50.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on GT @ 13.50, option @ 1.90
symbol: GT1221A15 2012 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 1.80/ 1.90

- or -

Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on GT @ 13.50, option @ 2.90
symbol: GT1319A15 2013 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 2.80/ 3.10

Current Target: $18.50
Current Stop loss: 11.75
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/19/11


Humana Inc. - HUM - close: 64.56

03/05 update: Shares of HUM spiked toward its recent highs early in the week thanks to an analyst upgrade. The trend is higher and more conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target to exit is the $69.00 mark. Currently we only have half a position open.

- Current (half) Positions -
Sep 17, 2010 - entry price on HUM @ 50.50, option @ 6.40
symbol: HUM1221A55 2012 Jan $55 call - current bid/ask $12.60/13.50

02/26/11 New stop loss @ 55.90
02/12/11 Exit half of our 2012 calls now, bid $8.40 (+31.2%)
02/12/11 New stop loss @ 51.75
12/11/10 New stop loss @ 49.75
11/20/10 Entry point on the dip.
10/23/10 Exit (sell) the 2011 Jan. $55 calls, bid @ 4.40 (+137%)
10/23/10 New stop loss $ 48.75
10/16/10 New stop loss @ 47.40
10/11/10 New Entry point - HUM is breaking out past $51.00.

Current Target(s): $69.00
Current Stop loss: 55.90
Play Entered on: 09/17/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 09/04/10


L-3 Communications - LLL - close: 79.20

03/05 update: LLL has now spent four weeks consolidating sideways in the $78-81 range. If the stock breaks out past $81 it should herald the next leg higher and move toward $90. I am not suggesting new positions at this time but nimble traders may want to reconsider new positions on a close over $81.00 (with a tighter stop, of course). Our final target is $89.00.

- Current Positions -
Nov 11, 2010 - entry price on LLL @ 71.87, option @ 5.80
symbol: LLL1221A75 2012 Jan $75 call - current bid/ask $ 8.80/ 9.10

02/12/11 New stop loss @ 73.75
02/05/11 There was no follow through lower.
01/29/11 LLL is correcting lower!
01/08/11 Take Profits Early. LLL @ 78.23. Option @ $8.50 (+46.5%)
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 69.90
11/11/10 Play triggered with LLL's gap open @ 71.87

Current Target(s): $79.50, 89.00
Current Stop loss: 73.75
Play Entered on: 11/11/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 11/06/10


MEDNAX Inc. - MD - close: 67.06

03/05 update: It's been a bullish week for MD. The stock broke through resistance near $66.00 and its 50-dma. The next level of significant resistance should be the $70.00 level. Our final target to exit is $69.50. Please note our new stop loss at $62.40. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Prior Comments:
MD doesn't have LEAPS so we had to settle for 2011 August calls. NOTE: Keep your position size small. The options on MD wide spreads, which puts us at a disadvantage!

- Current Positions -
Feb 03, 2011 - entry price on MD @ 60.33, option @ 3.60
symbol: MD1120H65 2011 AUG $65 call - current bid/ask $ 5.40/ 6.60

03/05 New stop loss @ 62.40
02/19 New stop loss @ 59.75
02/03 Trade triggered at $61.00, Option @ $3.60

Current Target(s): $69.50
Current Stop loss: 59.75
Play Entered on: 02/03/11
Originally listed on the Watch List 01/22/11


Microsoft Corp. - MSFT - close: 25.95

03/05 update: Uh-oh! The situation does not look good for MSFT. We have been expecting a correction lower toward $26.00 and its simple 200-dma for a long time. Yet the stock seems to be accelerating lower. Shares actually closed under $26.00 and under its 200-dma on Friday. The intraday low was $25.80 and our stop is at $25.75. If there is any follow through lower on Monday we will get stopped out. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Oct 18, 2010 - entry price on MSFT @ 25.59, option @ 3.30
symbol: MSFT1221A25 2012 Jan $25 call - current bid/ask $2.76/ 2.81

- or -

Oct 18, 2010 - entry price on MSFT @ 25.59, option @ 2.30
symbol: MSFT1319A30 2013 Jan $30 call - current bid/ask $1.76/ 1.84

02/26/11 Adjusted stop loss to $25.75
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 25.90
12/11/10 New stop loss @ 24.40
11/20/10 Another Entry Point on the dip toward the 50-dma
10/28/10 MSFT delivers stronger than expected earnings.

Chart of MSFT:

Current Target(s): $31.00
Current Stop loss: 25.75
Play Entered on: 10/18/10
Originally listed in New Plays on 10/16/10


U S G Corp. - USG - close: 16.83

03/05 update: USG delivered a quiet week. Shares were consolidating sideways near short-term resistance at $17.00. I remain cautious on USG at this time and reluctant to opening bullish positions. Currently we only have half a position open. Our final, long-term target is still $24.75.

- Current Positions -
Dec 20, 2010 - entry price on USG @ 15.25, option @ 1.50*
symbol: USG1221A20 2012 Jan $20 call - current bid/ask $ 1.95/ 2.05

- or -

Dec 20, 2010 - entry price on USG @ 15.25, option @ 3.00
symbol: USG1319A20 2013 Jan $20 call - current bid/ask $ 3.20/ 3.70

02/12/11 Take Profits (sell half) Options @ +93.3%, +50%
02/12/11 New stop loss @ 15.45
12/20/10 Play triggered at $15.25
*entry price is an estimate.

Current Target(s): $--.--, 2nd target: 24.75
Current Stop loss: 15.45
Play Entered on: 12/20/10
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/11/10


WellPoint Inc. - WLP - close: 67.99

03/05 update: Healthcare names have been showing relative strength. WLP got a boost thanks to an upgrade midweek. The stock hit $69.41 on Thursday. Our final exit target is $69.75. More conservative traders may want to go ahead and lock in a profit now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Oct 14th, 2010 - entry price on WLP @ 57.75, option @ $5.25
symbol: WLP1221A65 2012 Jan $65 call - current bid/ask $ 8.30/ 8.50

02/19/11 New stop loss @ 62.45
02/12/11 New stop loss @ 57.25
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 54.90
12/18/10 New stop loss @ 53.75.
11/20/10 Another entry point on the bounce from the 200-dma
10/14/10 Play Triggered when WLP hit $57.75, option @ $5.25

Chart of WLP:

Current Target(s): $69.75
Current Stop loss: 62.45
Play Entered on: 10/14/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 10/11/10