Closed Plays


MD has hit our profit target to exit.


Play Updates


Arch Coal Inc. - ACI - close: 34.53

04/09 update: Coal stocks peaked on Wednesday morning last week but ACI was already correcting lower a couple of days earlier. Shares have failed again near resistance in the $36-37 zone and they're currently resting on technical support near their 50-dam. A breakout past $37.00 would be bullish but until then I remain cautious. FYI: ACI is due to report earnings on April 26th.

- Current Positions -
Nov 22, 2010 - entry price on ACI @ 30.15, option @ 3.90
symbol: ACI1221A35 2012 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 4.55/ 4.65

- or -

Nov 22, 2010 - entry price on ACI @ 30.15, option @ 5.15
symbol: ACI1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 7.15/ 7.80

03/05/11 New stop loss @ 29.75
01/22/11 New stop loss @ 27.75
01/15/11 New stop loss @ 28.90
01/01/11 new stop loss @ 29.75
12/25/10 New stop loss @ 28.75
11/22/10 Play opened. ACI @ $30.15

Current Target: $39.75
Current Stop loss: 29.75
Play Entered on: 11/22/10
Originally listed in the New Plays 11/20/10


AK Steel Holding - AKS - close: 15.78

04/09 update: AKS tagged a new five-week high on Wednesday morning but eventually settled with a 10-cent loss for the week. I remain cautious on AKS even though shares should have significant support in the $16.00-15.00 zone. This area is bolstered by the 200-dma near $14.50. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. FYI: AKS is due to report earnings on April 26th.

AKS can be volatile so our plan was to limit our risk by keeping our position size small. Our long-term target is the $25.00 area.

- Current Positions -
Feb 22, 2011 - entry price on AKS @ 16.10, option @ 1.55
symbol: AKS1221A20 2012 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 1.05/ 1.09

- or -

Feb 22, 2011 - entry price on AKS @ 16.10, option @ 2.95
symbol: AKS1319A20 2013 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 2.06/ 2.22

Current Target: $25.00
Current Stop loss: 13.90
Play Entered on: 02/22/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/25/10


Allegheny Technology - ATI - close: 63.60

04/09 update: Uh-oh! It was not a good week for ATI. The stock produced a bearish reversal pattern on Wednesday and the declines on Thursday and Friday confirmed the reversal lower. The breakdown under $65.00 and its 50-dma doesn't help either. It is starting to look like ATI is forming a potential bearish double top pattern. I would expect a decline toward support near $60.00 and its 100-dma. More conservative traders may want to lighten up on their position size. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our long-term targets are $75 and $85.

- Suggested Positions -
Mar 10, 2011 - entry price on ATI @ 60.78, option @ 6.40
symbol: ATI1221A70 2012 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 6.10/ 6.40

- or -

Mar 10, 2011 - entry price on ATI @ 60.78, option @ 10.20
symbol: ATI1319A70 2013 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $10.60/12.80

04/02/11 New stop loss @ 59.00

Current Target: $75.00, and $85.00
Current Stop loss: 59.00
Play Entered on: 03/10/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/05/11


BE Aerospace Inc. - BEAV - close: 37.23

04/09 update: It was a volatile week for BEAV but most of the volatility was higher! Shares rallied to a new six-week high of $39.49 on Thursday (+9.5% for the week) before giving back -2.9% on Friday. Broken resistance near $36.00 and its 50-dma should now be new support. Please note our new stop loss at $32.95. Remember, our target to exit is the $40.00 mark. FYI: BEAV is due to report earnings on April 25th. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on BEAV @ 34.00, option @ 2.75
symbol: BEAV1116G35 2011 JUL $35 call - current bid/ask $ 3.70/ 4.70

04/09/11 New stop loss @ 32.95
04/02/11 New stop loss @ 31.95

Current Target: $40.00
Current Stop loss: 32.95
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/22/11


Bristol-Myers Squibb Company - BMY - close: 27.51 04/09 update: It was a bullish week for BMY with the stock up four out of the last five days. Shares are nearing significant resistance at the $28.00 level. Don't be surprised if BMY chops around the $28-27 area for a while until it builds up enough steam to push higher. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels. FYI: BMY is due to report earnings on April 28th.

Our long-term targets is $32.00. Investors might want to consider turning this trade into a calendar spread or vertical spread to maximize its potential.

- Suggested Positions -
Mar 14, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 26.14, option @ 1.13
symbol: BMY1221A27.5 2012 JAN $27.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.70/ 1.75

- or -

Mar 14, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 26.14, option @ 1.63
symbol: BMY1319A27.5 2013 JAN $27.50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.41/ 2.48

Current Target: $32.00
Current Stop loss: 24.95
Play Entered on: 03/14/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 03/12/11


Berkshire Hathaway - BRK.B - close: 81.80

04/09 update: Ever since the news hit that David Sokol, a potential successor for Warren Buffet, resigned from Berkshire on March 31st, the stock has been slipping lower. Now BRK has spent the last few days testing technical support at its 200-dma. The stock looks poised for a significant breakdown. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stops higher or lighten up on their position size. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Oct 29, 2010 - entry price on BRK.B @ 79.00, option @ 5.00
symbol: BRKB1221A90 2012 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 2.61/ 2.77

01/22/11 2011 January calls expired (-100%)
12/11/10 New stop loss @ 77.75.
11/20/10 New entry point on bounce from 200-dma
11/20/10 New stop @ 75.75
10/29/10 Play triggered on dip at $79.00.

Chart of BRK.B

Current Target: $ 99.00
Current Stop loss: 77.75
Play Entered on: 10/29/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 09/11/10


Compania de Minas Buenaventura - BVN - close: 43.45

04/09 update: For a company that mines gold and silver, shares of BVN have not performed very well while the two commodities are breaking out to new highs. This weakness in BVN is worrisome. Shares are currently stuck under their 200-dma. Readers may want to wait for a close over $46.00 before considering new bullish positions.

Earlier Comments:
I cautioned readers that our entry point at $45 was an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Our plan was to open small (half) positions to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Jan 5, 2011 - entry price on BVN @ 45.00, option @ 3.90
symbol: BVN1119F50 2011 JUN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 0.60/ 0.90

01/22: Adjust the stop loss to $38.95
01/05: Play is opened at $45.00 (small positions only)

Current Target: $ 54.75
Current Stop loss: 38.95
Play Entered on: 01/05/11
Originally listed on the Watch List --/--/--


BorgWarner Inc. - BWA - close: 75.37

04/09 update: It was an ugly week for BWA. Shares hit a new high on Monday and have been down ever since. The stock lost nearly six points and is now testing support near its 50-dma and its trendline of higher lows. The action last week has painted an ugly bearish reversal on its weekly chart. If the S&P 500 rolls over from current levels I would expect BWA to follow it lower and putting this trade in jeopardy of getting stopped out. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. FYI: BWA is due to report earnings on April 28th.

Prior Comments:
BWA has been volatile lately so we have a wide (aggressive) stop loss at $69.75. Our targets are optimistic at $88.00 and at $99.00. Keep in mind our plan was to use small positions to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on BWA @ 74.00, option @ 4.20
symbol: BWA1116G80 2011 JUL $80 call - current bid/ask $ 2.85/ 3.70

Current Target: $88.00, $99.00
Current Stop loss: 69.75
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/05/11


Citigroup, Inc. - C - close: 4.56

04/09 update: After consolidating sideways for more than a week shares of Citigroup broke out on April 6th but the rally has stalled near technical resistance at its 50 and 100-dma. Earnings are coming up on April 18th. Readers may want to wait and see how the market reacts to Citigroup's earnings news before considering new positions.

We still have four weeks left before Citigroup's 10-for-1 reverse stock split but I have yet to get a response from the CBOE or the Options Industry Council on how this reverse split will affect C's options.

The reverse split will occur after trading closes on May 6th and C will start trading at the new price on Monday, May 9th.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on Citigroup stock (C) @ 4.60

- or -

Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on C @ 4.60, option @ $0.48
symbol: C1221A5 2012 JAN $5 call - current bid/ask $ 0.27/ 0.28

- or -

Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on C @ 4.60, option @ $0.85
symbol: C1319A5 2013 JAN $5 call - current bid/ask $ 0.58/ 0.60

Current Target: $6.50, and $7.75
Current Stop loss: 4.19
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/19/11


CACI International - CACI - close: 60.06

04/09 update: The lack of follow through on the April 1st intraday bounce is a little disappointing but the pull back toward support near $60.00 can be used as a new bullish entry point. However, readers may want to wait. The major market indices look vulnerable to more declines and that could pull CACI lower toward its 50-dma or the $58.00 level. FYI: CACI is due to report earnings on May 4th.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a much more aggressive entry point and hopefully if we keep our position size small we can limit our risk. The March low was close to $57.00. I'm listing our stop loss at $56.75. Our first upside target is $69.00. CACI doesn't have LEAPS so we'll have to use the 2011 September calls.

- Current (small) Positions -
Apr 4, 2011 - entry price on CACI @ 62.04, option @ 3.30
symbol: CACI1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 2.05/ 2.30

Chart of CACI:

Current Target: $69.00
Current Stop loss: 56.75
Play Entered on: 04/04/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/12/11


Canadian Natl. Railway Co. - CNI - close: 73.88

04/09 update: CNI and the railroad industry ran into some profit taking last week. Now that CNI has declined under the $75.00 level we can look for a dip near the $72.50 area as a potential entry point for bullish positions. Our long-term target is $89.00. FYI: Earnings are due on April 26th.

- Current Positions -
Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on CNI @ 72.39, option @ 2.90
symbol: CNI1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 2.80/ 3.30

04/02/11 New stop loss @ 69.00

Current Target: $89.00
Current Stop loss: 67.00
Play Entered on: 02/28/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/26/11


Costco Wholesale - COST - close: 76.41

04/09 update: Tuesday and Wednesday last week saw shares of COST failing under the $76.00 level. That changed on Thursday. The company reported same-store sales of +13.0% for March versus estimates of only +7.4%. Shares of COST gapped open at $76.37 on Thursday and rallied to $78.46 intraday. This is a bullish breakout past the major resistance near $75-76 from 2008. The stock hit some profit taking on Friday after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to a "neutral".

The 2012 January $80 call opened at $3.80 on Thursday. The 2013 January $85 call was trading near $5.05. I would still consider new bullish positions now or on dips near $75.00. Just bear in mind that if the market corrects lower from here that COST will not be immune. Shares could see a correction toward the 50-dma if the market sinks. Readers may want to start small and slowly build up a position. Our long-term targets are $89.50 and $99.00.

- Current Positions -
Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on COST @ 76.37, option @ 3.80
symbol:COST1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 3.80/ 3.95

- or -

Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on COST @ 76.37, option @ 5.05
symbol:COST1319A85 2013 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $ 4.90/ 5.20

Chart of COST:

Current Target: $89.50, 99.00
Current Stop loss: 69.95
Play Entered on: 04/07/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11


Walt Disney Co. - DIS - close: 41.76

04/09 update: DIS has spent the last several days consolidating lower. I am still expecting a pull back toward support near $40 and its 100-dma, especially if the S&P 500 rolls over from current levels. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. FYI: DIS is due to report earnings on May 10th.

- Current Positions -
Oct 27, 2010 - entry price on DIS @ 35.60, option @ 2.23
symbol: DIS1221A40 2012 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 4.65/ 4.75

- or -

Oct 27, 2010 - entry price on DIS @ 35.60, option @ 3.63
symbol: DIS1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 6.70/ 6.90

02/12/11 New stop loss @ 37.85
02/09/11 1st Target Hit. Options @ +137% and +103%
02/05/11 New stop loss @ 35.75
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 34.95
01/08/11 Target changed to $43.00 and $46.00
10/27/10 Play opened, DIS opened @ $35.60

Current Target(s): $43.00, 49.00
Current Stop loss: 37.85
Play Entered on: 10/27/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 10/24/10


Brinker International - EAT - close: 23.91

04/09 update: Be careful here! The trading in EAT has taken a turn for the worse. The reversal began on Wednesday and shares have fallen three days in a row. Friday's drop is a bearish breakdown under support near $24 and its 50-dma. This decline has produced an ugly bearish reversal pattern on the weekly chart. EAT still has some support near $23.50 but more conservative traders may want to consider an early exit now or lighten up your position size. You could exit now and avoid or minimize any losses. If the market corrects lower from here then odds are good that EAT will hit our stop loss. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. FYI: EAT is due to report earnings on April 27th.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on EAT @ 22.50, option @ $ 1.10
symbol: EAT1116G25 2011 JUL $25 call - current bid/ask $ 1.10/ 1.50

04/02/11 New stop @ 22.90
03/26/11 New stop @ $21.95

Current Target: $29.50
Current Stop loss: 22.90
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/12/11


Ford Motor Co - F - close: 15.33

04/09 update: Ford rallied toward $16.00 before running out of gas. Shares are now testing short-term support near $15.25 and its 50-dma. This dip to support looks like a new bullish entry point however I am concerned that the market's major indices look vulnerable to new declines. Readers may want to wait. If the market sells off then we might see Ford retest the $14.75 area again.

Our long-term exit targets are $19.75 and $24.00.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on F @ 15.29, option @ 2.17
symbol: F1221A15 2012 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 1.99/ 2.02

- or -

Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on F @ 15.29, option @ 1.50
symbol: F1319A20 2013 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 1.38/ 1.45

03/26/11 New stop loss @ $12.95

Current Target: $19.75, and $24.00
Current Stop loss: 12.95
Play Entered on: 02/28/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/26/11


Fiserv, Inc. - FISV - close: 62.36

04/09 update: FISV is still consolidating sideways under resistance near the $63.00 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time but a close over $64.00 might change that. FYI: FISV is due to report earnings on April 27th.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 14, 2011 - entry price on FISV @ 62.30, option @ 3.20
symbol: FISV1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 2.40/ 2.80

Current Target: $74.75
Current Stop loss: 57.50
Play Entered on: 02/14/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/12/11


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 143.66

04/09 update: New declines in the U.S. dollar and concerns over inflation are helping drive precious metals higher. Gold has broken out to new all-time highs and hit $1,476 an ounce this past week. After spending five months of consolidating sideways under the $140 level the GLD has also broken out to new highs. Currently our final target to take profits and exit is at $149.00. I have to admit that I am very, very tempted to raise our target price to $155 or even $165. Aggressive traders may want to reconsider what their exit plan is. The newsletter will stick with the $149.00 exit price.

Prior comments:
Our April put, which we bought as a hedge against a sudden drop in gold, will probably expire worthless. Currently our final long-term bullish target is $149.00.

FYI: A few months ago Goldman Sachs raised their 2011 price target on gold to $1,700 an ounce. Another firm raised their 2011 price target to $1,600 an ounce.

- Current Positions -
Aug 6, 2010 - entry price on GLD @ 118.00, option @ 10.75
symbol: GLD1221A130 2012 Jan $130 call - current bid/ask $17.40/17.75

- Short Term Put -

Jan 18, 2011 - entry price on GLD @ 133.63, option @ 1.70
symbol: GLD1116P125 2011 APR $125 PUT - current bid/ask $ 0.00/ 0.03

02/26/11 New stop loss @ 127.00
01/18/11 GLD opened at $133.63. April $125 put opened at $1.70
01/15/11 Added April Puts to protect ourselves from further declines.
01/08/11 Expecting a correction toward $125
11/09/10 Target hit - GLD opened at $138.70, 2011 Mar. Call opened @ $20.00 (+159%)
11/06/10 new stop @ 123.40
10/30/10 New stop @ 121.00. Readers may want to exit ahead of FOMC meeting
10/02/10 Sell half of the 2011 March calls, option @ 12.70 (+64.9%)
10/02/10 New stop $ 118.49
09/25/10 New stop @ 116.45, new target 138.50

Current Target(s): $149.00
Current Stop loss: 127.00
Play Entered on: 08/06/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 06/05/10


Goodyear Tire - GT - close: 15.00

04/09 update: It was a quiet week for GT but momentum is fading. The stock looks like it's ready to correct lower. I would expect a dip toward the $14.00 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our long-term target is $18.50.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on GT @ 13.50, option @ 1.90
symbol: GT1221A15 2012 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 2.40/ 2.50

- or -

Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on GT @ 13.50, option @ 2.90
symbol: GT1319A15 2013 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 3.60/ 4.00

03/26/11 New stop loss @ 12.75

Current Target: $18.50
Current Stop loss: 12.75
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/19/11


KeyCorp - KEY - close: 8.87

04/09 update: KEY did not make any progress last week. Shares have been bouncing around the $8.80-9.00 zone with overhead resistance at its 50-dma. Odds are growing that KEY will dip and retest support near $8.50 and its simple 200-dma. Readers can choose to either wait for another bounce near $8.50 or wait for a close over $9.20 as their new entry point. FYI: KEY is due to report earnings on April 18th.

Prior Comments:
We have a stop loss at $7.85. More conservative traders may want a stop closer to the 200-dma or the $8.25 level instead. Our long-term targets are $12 and $14.

- Current Positions -
Mar 17, 2011 - entry price on KEY @ 8.60, option @ 0.87
symbol: KEY1221A10 2012 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.61/ 0.66

- or -

Mar 17, 2011 - entry price on KEY @ 8.60, option @ 1.35
symbol: KEY1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 1.07/ 1.25

Current Target(s): $12.00, 14.00
Current Stop loss: 7.85
Play Entered on: 03/17/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/26/11


L-3 Communications - LLL - close: 79.52

04/09 update: Investors bought the dip near $78.00 but LLL has been unable to break the bearish trend of lower highs. I wouldn't be surprised to see LLL stuck trading sideways until its earnings report on April 21st. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our final target is $89.00.

- Current Positions -
Nov 11, 2010 - entry price on LLL @ 71.87, option @ 5.80
symbol: LLL1221A75 2012 Jan $75 call - current bid/ask $ 8.40/ 8.60

03/26/11 New stop loss @ 74.75
02/12/11 New stop loss @ 73.75
02/05/11 There was no follow through lower.
01/29/11 LLL is correcting lower!
01/08/11 Take Profits Early. LLL @ 78.23. Option @ $8.50 (+46.5%)
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 69.90
11/11/10 Play triggered with LLL's gap open @ 71.87

Current Target(s): $79.50, 89.00
Current Stop loss: 73.75
Play Entered on: 11/11/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 11/06/10


Monsanto Co. - MON - close: 66.22

04/09 update: Watch out! Shares of MON are plunging. I warned readers that this week might be volatile thanks to the company's earnings report. MON reported earnings on April 6th with profit of $1.87 a share. That beat estimates of $1.85 but revenues were a minor miss at $4.13 billion compared to the $4.15 billion estimate. Furthermore, it appears that MON only managed to beat Wall Street's estimates due to an improvement in their tax rate. MON's management reaffirmed their full year guidance in the $2.72-2.82 zone but this is below Wall Street's estimate of $2.86 for the year.

Lack of improvement in their margins and worries that MON might be losing market share have sent the stock falling sharply with a drop from $74 to $66 in the last few days. More conservative traders will want to consider an early exit right now! I am not suggesting new positions at this time. There is a chance that MON will find support near $64.00 or at its simple 200-dma near $62.00. I am raising our stop loss to $61.75.

Prior Comments:
Our plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk since MON can be so volatile at times. Our long-term targets are the $85-90 zone.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Mar 15, 2011 - entry price on MON @ 65.50, option @ 6.75
symbol: MON1221A70 2012 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 5.70/ 5.85

- or -

Mar 15, 2011 - entry price on MON @ 65.50, option @ 8.75
symbol: MON1319A75 2013 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 7.25/ 7.50

04/09/11 New stop loss @ 61.75, Readers may want to exit early now.

Chart of MON:

Current Target(s): $85.00
Current Stop loss: 59.90
Play Entered on: 03/15/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/08/11


PACCAR Inc. - PCAR - close: 51.28

04/09 update: PCAR struggled with resistance near $54.00 and has started to correct lower. We can use this dip in the $52-51 zone as a new entry point. However, with the major market indices looking vulnerable to more declines, odds are pretty good that PCAR will test support near $50.00 and its 200-dma. I would wait for a dip closer to $50.00 before considering new bullish positions.

If looks like PCAR must have had some sort of special dividend to create these odd strike prices. Instead of a normal $55.00 strike price PCAR has $54.70 strikes.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Mar 21, 2011 - entry price on PCAR @ 50.75, option @ 3.70
PCAR1221A54.7 2012 JAN $54.70 call - current bid/ask $ 3.70/ 3.90

- or -

Mar 21, 2011 - entry price on PCAR @ 50.75, option @ 8.00
PCAR1319A54.7 2013 JAN $54.70 call - current bid/ask $ 6.00/ 7.80

Current Target(s): $58.00, 64.00
Current Stop loss: 44.95
Play Entered on: 03/21/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/19/11


Scotts Miracle Grow Co. - SMG - close: 58.62

04/09 update: I have been warning readers to expect a pull back into the $57.00-55.00 zone. I believe that could happen pretty soon. SMG just spent three days last week failing at resistance near the $60.00 mark. Personally, I would watch the 50-dma, currently near $55.25, and look for a dip near this moving average before considering new bullish positions.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk. SMG doesn't have LEAPS so we'll have to buy September calls. Our target is the $65-70 zone.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Mar 25, 2011 - entry price on SMG @ 58.00, option @ 3.00
SMG1117I60 2011 SEP $60 call - current bid/ask $ 2.75/ 3.10

Current Target(s): $65.00-70.00
Current Stop loss: 53.75
Play Entered on: 03/25/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/05/11


Southwestern Energy Co. - SWN - close: 40.55

04/09 update: Rising crude oil prices have not helped shares of SWN, a gas and oil company. The stock has corrected lower and is now testing prior resistance and what should be support near $40.00. SWN hit our buy-the-dip trigger at $40.50 on Thursday, April 7th. Technically I would still consider new positions now with SWN so close to support. However, the energy sector has not seen much benefit to rising oil prices. Investors are worried about demand destruction as fuel prices rise (consumers driving less). Readers may want to wait and see if SWN bounces from the $40 level first before considering new positions. You could always start with a small position to limit your risk and add to it as the trade progresses. Our long-term target is the $50-52.50 zone.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on SWN @ 40.50, option @ 2.90
SWN1221A45 2012 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 2.89/ 2.96

- or -

Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on SWN @ 40.50, option @ 5.85
SWN1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 5.40/ 5.95

Chart of SWN:

Current Target(s): $50.00-52.50
Current Stop loss: 36.75
Play Entered on: 04/07/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/02/11


Teva Pharmaceuticals - TEVA - close: 50.46

04/09 update: TEVA is not making any progress. The stock has been stuck in the $50-51 zone for over two weeks. This past week has seen every rally attempt fail near the descending 50-dma, which is a bearish development. If the stock breaks down under $50.00 again more conservative traders may want to abandon ship! Please note that I am raising our stop loss to $46.90. The low in July 2010 was $46.99. The low in March was $47.30. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We wanted to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Mar 11, 2011 - entry price on TEVA @ 49.00, option @ 2.40
symbol: TEVA1221A55 2012 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $ 2.35/ 2.48

- or -

Mar 11, 2011 - entry price on TEVA @ 49.00, option @ 3.35
symbol: TEVA1319A60 2013 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 2.80/ 3.60

04/09 New stop loss @ 46.90
03/19 New stop loss at $45.90

Current Target(s): $56.00 & 62.50
Current Stop loss: 45.90
Play Entered on: 03/11/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11


U S G Corp. - USG - close: 16.33

04/09 update: USG saw a spike down toward its March lows but managed a bounce at $15.65. The stock is currently struggling with a bearish trend of lower highs. More conservative traders may want to exit early now to avoid or minimize any losses. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Dec 20, 2010 - entry price on USG @ 15.25, option @ 1.50*
symbol: USG1221A20 2012 Jan $20 call - current bid/ask $ 1.25/ 1.50

- or -

Dec 20, 2010 - entry price on USG @ 15.25, option @ 3.00
symbol: USG1319A20 2013 Jan $20 call - current bid/ask $ 2.55/ 3.10

02/12/11 Take Profits (sell half) Options @ +93.3%, +50%
02/12/11 New stop loss @ 15.45
12/20/10 Play triggered at $15.25
*entry price is an estimate.

Current Target(s): $--.--, 2nd target: 24.75
Current Stop loss: 15.45
Play Entered on: 12/20/10
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/11/10


CLOSED Plays


MEDNAX Inc. - MD - close: 67.90

04/09 update: Target achieved. MD rallied toward resistance near $70.00 and managed to hit a new two-year high at $70.48 on Wednesday. Our final target to exit and take profits was hit at $69.50 on April 5th. The option was trading with a bid near $7.00 at the time.

Prior Comments:
MD doesn't have LEAPS so we had to settle for 2011 August calls. NOTE: Keep your position size small. The options on MD wide spreads, which puts us at a disadvantage!

- Current Positions -
Feb 03, 2011 - entry price on MD @ 60.33, option @ 3.60
symbol: MD1120H65 2011 AUG $65 call - exit @ 7.00 (+94.4%)

04/05 Target Hit @ 69.50, Option @ 7.00 (+94.4%)
03/05 New stop loss @ 62.40
02/19 New stop loss @ 59.75
02/03 Trade triggered at $61.00, Option @ $3.60

Chart of MD:

Current Target(s): $69.50
Current Stop loss: 59.75
Play Entered on: 02/03/11
Originally listed on the Watch List 01/22/11