Closed Plays


C, GLD, and PBR have been closed.


Play Updates


Arch Coal Inc. - ACI - close: 30.90

05/07 update: It was a rough week for coal stocks. Most of the market sold off Monday through Thursday but anything commodity-related suffered a worse fate. ACI broke down from its consolidation near $34 and hit new three-month lows near its exponential 200-dma. ACI "should" have support in this $31-30 area with the simple and exponential 200-dma but the short-term trend is definitely bearish and technical indicators don't look healthy. Fortunately, the wider market looks poised to bounce, which should help ACI. We have a stop loss at $29.75.

Another issue influencing ACI shares was news early last week the company was buying its rival, International Coal Group Inc. (ICO), for $3.4 billion. This move increases ACI's footprint in the high-demand metallurgical coal industry. Analysts seemed bullish on the deal but shares of ACI only saw a momentary spike on Monday morning.

I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Our plan is to sell half of our position at $39.75. Our final, long-term target will be $44.75.

- Current Positions -
Nov 22, 2010 - entry price on ACI @ 30.15, option @ 3.90
symbol: ACI1221A35 2012 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 2.39/ 2.46

- or -

Nov 22, 2010 - entry price on ACI @ 30.15, option @ 5.15
symbol: ACI1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 4.65/ 4.85

04/23/11 Adjusted targets to $39.75 and $44.75
03/05/11 New stop loss @ 29.75
01/22/11 New stop loss @ 27.75
01/15/11 New stop loss @ 28.90
01/01/11 new stop loss @ 29.75
12/25/10 New stop loss @ 28.75
11/22/10 Play opened. ACI @ $30.15

Current Target: $39.75, $44.50
Current Stop loss: 29.75
Play Entered on: 11/22/10
Originally listed in the New Plays 11/20/10


AK Steel Holding - AKS - close: 14.91

05/07 update: The sell-off/correction in AKS is now several days old. It started with the failed rally near $17.00 two weeks ago. Shares are now testing what should be support in the $14.50-15.00 zone, an area bolstered by the simple 200-dma. Unfortunately, last week's decline did break down through AKS' multi-month trend of higher lows, which would suggest a potential change in trend for AKS. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We have a stop loss at $13.90 but more conservative traders may want to raise theirs closer to $14.50 or closer to the 200-dma.

AKS can be volatile so our plan was to limit our risk by keeping our position size small. Our long-term target is the $25.00 area.

- Current Positions -
Feb 22, 2011 - entry price on AKS @ 16.10, option @ 1.55
symbol: AKS1221A20 2012 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 0.64/ 0.68

- or -

Feb 22, 2011 - entry price on AKS @ 16.10, option @ 2.95
symbol: AKS1319A20 2013 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 1.55/ 1.90

Chart of AKS:

Current Target: $25.00
Current Stop loss: 13.90
Play Entered on: 02/22/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/25/10


Allegheny Technology - ATI - close: 70.00

05/07 update: ATI held up pretty well considering the market's declines last week. Shares are still hovering near the $70.00 level. Traders bought the dip multiple times near the $68.50 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Mar 10, 2011 - entry price on ATI @ 60.78, option @ 6.40
symbol: ATI1221A70 2012 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 9.20/ 9.40

- or -

Mar 10, 2011 - entry price on ATI @ 60.78, option @ 10.20
symbol: ATI1319A70 2013 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $14.00/14.70

04/30/11 New stop loss @ 61.90
04/30/11 Adjusted targets to $74.50 and $84.50
04/02/11 New stop loss @ 59.00

Current Target: $74.50, and $84.50
Current Stop loss: 61.90
Play Entered on: 03/10/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/05/11


Boeing Co. - BA - close: 79.31

05/07 update: BA also held up very well last week. The stock saw a mild consolidation as shares churned sideways in the $78-80 zone. On a short-term basis I would expect a breakout higher soon. I am tempted to raise our stop loss. More conservative traders may want to up their stop into the $73-75 zone. BA appears to have support near $78 and then in the $76-75 area.

I am not suggesting new long-term positions at this time. Our long-term targets are $89 and $104.

- Current Positions -
Apr 27, 2011 - entry price on BA @ 76.50, option @ 4.50
symbol: BA1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 6.25/ 6.40

Apr 27, 2011 - entry price on BA @ 76.50, option @ 4.95
symbol: BA1319A90 2013 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 6.05/ 6.25

04/27/11 Play opened. Small positions.

Current Target: $89.00, and $104.00
Current Stop loss: 69.75
Play Entered on: 04/27/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/26/11


BE Aerospace Inc. - BEAV - close: 37.22

05/07 update: BEAV produced a bearish reversal candlestick last Monday and the market's decline pulled shares toward technical support at the 50-dma. Fortunately traders bought the dip at this level and BEAV produced a bounce one day ahead of the market.

We have less than three months before our July options expire. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. BEAV is facing resistance near $39 and near the $40 levels. Currently our target to exit is the $40.00 level. More aggressive traders could aim higher.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on BEAV @ 34.00, option @ 2.75
symbol: BEAV1116G35 2011 JUL $35 call - current bid/ask $ 3.30/ 3.50

04/30/11 New stop loss @ 33.95
04/09/11 New stop loss @ 32.95
04/02/11 New stop loss @ 31.95

Current Target: $40.00
Current Stop loss: 33.95
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/22/11


Bristol-Myers Squibb Company - BMY - close: 28.64

05/07 update: BMY actually managed a gain for the week. The stock rallied last Tuesday and spent the rest of the week consolidating sideways. The stock continues to look a bit over-extended with the nearly non-stop rally from early April. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our long-term targets is $32.00. Investors might want to consider turning this trade into a calendar spread or vertical spread to maximize its potential.

- Suggested Positions -
Mar 14, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 26.14, option @ 1.13
symbol: BMY1221A27.5 2012 JAN $27.50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.25/ 2.29

- or -

Mar 14, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 26.14, option @ 1.63
symbol: BMY1319A27.5 2013 JAN $27.50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.93/ 3.05

Current Target: $32.00
Current Stop loss: 24.95
Play Entered on: 03/14/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 03/12/11


Berkshire Hathaway - BRK.B - close: 80.21

05/07 update: BRK.B lost about three points for the week. The company reported earnings that were substantially lower than a year ago period. The company has a very significant insurance division and the rash of natural disasters last quarter took a bite out of BRK.B's business.

Technically the situation looks bearish. BRK.B is under technical support at the 200-dma and flirting with a breakdown under the $80.00 mark. The stock has a bearish trend of lower highs and now lower lows. More conservative traders may want to exit early right now to limit losses. I suspect the market is poised to bounce, which should help BRK.B so we're going to hold on for another week and see what happens. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Oct 29, 2010 - entry price on BRK.B @ 79.00, option @ 5.00
symbol: BRKB1221A90 2012 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 2.17/ 2.35

01/22/11 2011 January calls expired (-100%)
12/11/10 New stop loss @ 77.75.
11/20/10 New entry point on bounce from 200-dma
11/20/10 New stop @ 75.75
10/29/10 Play triggered on dip at $79.00.

Current Target: $ 99.00
Current Stop loss: 77.75
Play Entered on: 10/29/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 09/11/10


CACI International - CACI - close: 61.14

05/07 update: CACI eked out a gain for the week thanks to a positive earnings report. The company beat estimates by 13 cents and then raised their 2011 guidance. The stock popped on the news but gains were limited due to a falling stock market. Shares look poised to rally from here. I would consider new positions now. Nimble traders may want to try and enter on a dip near $60.50ish. I am raising our stop loss to $57.75.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a more aggressive trade and if we keep our position size small we can limit our risk. Our first upside target is $69.00. CACI doesn't have LEAPS so we'll have to use the 2011 September calls.

- Current (small) Positions -
Apr 4, 2011 - entry price on CACI @ 62.04, option @ 3.30
symbol: CACI1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 2.05/ 2.25

05/07/11 New stop loss @ 57.75

Current Target: $69.00
Current Stop loss: 57.75
Play Entered on: 04/04/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/12/11


Canadian Natl. Railway Co. - CNI - close: 76.68

05/07 update: After hitting new all-time highs on Monday shares of CNI were due for some profit taking. The stock slipped toward $75 before bouncing. Last week I suggested readers wait for a dip toward the $75-74 zone as our next entry point and we got it. Our long-term target is $89.00.

- Current Positions -
Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on CNI @ 72.39, option @ 2.90
symbol: CNI1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 3.60/ 3.90

05/05/11 new entry point @ 75.00
04/02/11 New stop loss @ 69.00

Current Target: $89.00
Current Stop loss: 69.00
Play Entered on: 02/28/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/26/11


Costco Wholesale - COST - close: 80.45

05/07 update: While COST did not manage a gain last week the minor profit taking is a show of strength compared to the market's widespread declines. Shares have been digesting its prior gains and while this consolidation is healthy I am not suggesting new long-term bullish positions at these levels. FYI: Last week COST reported April same-store sales growth of +12.0% versus estimates for +8.8%.

- Current Positions -
Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on COST @ 76.37, option @ 3.80
symbol:COST1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 5.65/ 5.85

- or -

Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on COST @ 76.37, option @ 5.05
symbol:COST1319A85 2013 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $ 6.65/ 6.85

04/30/11 New stop loss @ 73.40

Current Target: $89.50, 99.00
Current Stop loss: 73.40
Play Entered on: 04/07/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11


Walt Disney Co. - DIS - close: 43.06

05/07 update: DIS lost less than a nickel for the week. The stock has been consolidating sideways above its 50-dma. On a short-term basis I would expect DIS to breakout higher from this consolidation soon but the stock continues to have overhead resistance near $44.00. We should expect some volatility out of DIS shares this week. Earnings are expected on May 10th after the closing bell. Wall Street is looking for a profit of 56 cents a share. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Oct 27, 2010 - entry price on DIS @ 35.60, option @ 2.23
symbol: DIS1221A40 2012 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 5.20/ 5.35

- or -

Oct 27, 2010 - entry price on DIS @ 35.60, option @ 3.63
symbol: DIS1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 7.20/ 7.35

02/12/11 New stop loss @ 37.85
02/09/11 1st Target Hit. Options @ +137% and +103%
02/05/11 New stop loss @ 35.75
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 34.95
01/08/11 Target changed to $43.00 and $46.00
10/27/10 Play opened, DIS opened @ $35.60

Current Target(s): $43.00, 49.00
Current Stop loss: 37.85
Play Entered on: 10/27/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 10/24/10


Brinker International - EAT - close: 24.22

05/07 update: Investors bought the dip in EAT near support at $23.20 last week. This is the third time the stock has bounced at this level in the last four weeks. Shares appear stuck in the $23-26 zone. I remain concerned about EAT's lack of momentum. More conservative traders may want to abandon ship to minimize or avoid any losses. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on EAT @ 22.50, option @ $ 1.10
symbol: EAT1116G25 2011 JUL $25 call - current bid/ask $ 0.95/ 1.25

04/02/11 New stop @ 22.90
03/26/11 New stop @ $21.95

Current Target: $29.50
Current Stop loss: 22.90
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/12/11


Ford Motor Co - F - close: 15.11

05/07 update: Ford has spent the last two weeks consolidating lower after its failed rally near $16 and the 100-dma. Yet in spite of the market's sell-off, shares of Ford held support near $15.00 and the 50 and 200-dma. If you had a bearish outlook on this stock you could argue that Ford might be building a big bear-flag consolidation pattern. Yet the long-term trend for Ford is up.

I am suggesting we use this bounce from $15.00 as a new bullish entry point. I've added a second position for the newsletter below. We will fill in our entry price for the new position on Monday morning. More conservative traders may want to up their stop loss closer to $14.00 or the $14.50 level.

Our long-term exit targets are $19.75 and $24.00.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on F @ 15.29, option @ 2.17
symbol: F1221A15 2012 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 1.68/ 1.71

- or -

Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on F @ 15.29, option @ 1.50
symbol: F1319A20 2013 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 1.09/ 1.14

- Second Position, listed May 7th, 2011 -

May 9, 2011 - entry price on F @ --.--, option @ -.--
symbol: F1221A15 2012 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 1.68/ 1.71

- or -

May 9, 2011 - entry price on F @ --.--, option @ -.--
symbol: F1319A20 2013 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 1.09/ 1.14

05/07/11 New entry point on bounce from $15.00
03/26/11 New stop loss @ $12.95

Chart of F:

Current Target: $19.75, and $24.00
Current Stop loss: 12.95
Play Entered on: 02/28/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/26/11


Fiserv, Inc. - FISV - close: 61.61

05/07 update: FISV managed to close up on the week but little has changed in the last several days. FISV has been consolidating sideways between technical support at its 100-dma and short-term resistance near $62.75 (and its 10, 20, and 30-dma). The fact that FISV did not sell-off and breakdown under support in spite of the market's sharp decline is a positive development. Yet FISV still looks vulnerable here. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 14, 2011 - entry price on FISV @ 62.30, option @ 3.20
symbol: FISV1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 1.65/ 2.05

Current Target: $74.75
Current Stop loss: 57.50
Play Entered on: 02/14/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/12/11


James River Coal Co. - JRCC - close: 22.82

05/07 update: JRCC saw a big spike higher last Monday, presumably on the ACI/ICO merger news. Analysts were speculating that the coal industry could see further consolidation. Yet the rally in JRCC reversed and shares were fading lower the rest of the week. This stock could see additional volatility on May 10th. JRCC reports earnings before the opening bell and Wall Street is expecting a profit of 30 cents a share. We do not want to open new positions ahead of the earnings report.

Our long-term target is $29.50. We do want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Apr 12, 2011 - entry price on JRCC @ 22.50, option @ 3.10
symbol: JRCC1221A25 2012 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 2.75/ 3.00

- or -

Apr 12, 2011 - entry price on JRCC @ 22.50, option @ 4.70
symbol: JRCC1319A27 2013 JAN $27 call - current bid/ask $ 3.80/ 4.60

Current Target: $29.50
Current Stop loss: 19.90
Play Entered on: 04/12/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/22/11


Monsanto Co. - MON - close: 65.27

05/07 update: Last weekend I warned readers that the situation in MON was growing worse. This past week saw a breakdown from the $68-66 trading range. Fortunately, the stock found support again near the $64 level. The stock has developed a bearish trend of lower highs and lower lows. There is a chance that MON might be able to hold support near $64.00 and its 200-dma (currently at $63.65). However, we do not want to open new bullish positions at this time. I will repeat my prior comments that more conservative traders will want to consider an early exit.

Prior Comments:
Our plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk since MON can be so volatile at times. Our long-term targets are the $85-90 zone.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Mar 15, 2011 - entry price on MON @ 65.50, option @ 6.75
symbol: MON1221A70 2012 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 4.70/ 4.85

- or -

Mar 15, 2011 - entry price on MON @ 65.50, option @ 8.75
symbol: MON1319A75 2013 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 6.35/ 6.55

04/09/11 New stop loss @ 61.75, Readers may want to exit early now.

Current Target(s): $85.00
Current Stop loss: 61.75
Play Entered on: 03/15/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/08/11


PACCAR Inc. - PCAR - close: 53.01

05/07 update: PCAR only lost 10 cents for the week. Traders bought the dip near $52 on Thursday. I was hoping for a dip closer to $50.00 as a new entry point. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels. More conservative traders might want to use a higher stop loss.

FYI: If looks like PCAR must have had some sort of special dividend to create these odd strike prices. Instead of a normal $55.00 strike price PCAR has $54.70 strikes.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Mar 21, 2011 - entry price on PCAR @ 50.75, option @ 3.70
PCAR1221A54.7 2012 JAN $54.70 call - current bid/ask $ 4.30/ 4.50

- or -

Mar 21, 2011 - entry price on PCAR @ 50.75, option @ 8.00
PCAR1319A54.7 2013 JAN $54.70 call - current bid/ask $ 7.10/ 8.10

Current Target(s): $58.00, 64.00
Current Stop loss: 46.45
Play Entered on: 03/21/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/19/11


Scotts Miracle Grow Co. - SMG - close: 57.97

05/07 update: SMG saw some volatility following its earnings report on May 3rd. The company beat estimates by 17 cents. The volatility continued later in the week as different analysts offered competing opinions on SMG. One firm raised their target while another downgraded the stock. At the end of the week SMG posted a gain and shares look poised to move higher. I would consider new positions now or you could wait for a move past resistance at $60.00.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk. SMG doesn't have LEAPS so we'll have to buy September calls. Our target is the $65-70 zone.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Mar 25, 2011 - entry price on SMG @ 58.00, option @ 3.00
SMG1117I60 2011 SEP $60 call - current bid/ask $ 2.20/ 2.55

Current Target(s): $65.00-70.00
Current Stop loss: 53.75
Play Entered on: 03/25/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/05/11


Southwestern Energy Co. - SWN - close: 41.91

05/07 update: After a big bounce from its April lows SWN was due for some profit taking. That's exactly what happened last week. I have been suggesting that readers look for a bounce in the $40-42 zone as a new entry point. The stock tried to bounce on Friday but gave back almost all of its gains. I'm a little bit concerned that the early May peak and the late March highs could be considered a potential bearish double top pattern. I would keep your position size small. We will raise our stop loss to $37.75.

Our long-term target is the $50-52.50 zone.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on SWN @ 40.50, option @ 2.90
SWN1221A45 2012 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.35/ 3.45

- or -

Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on SWN @ 40.50, option @ 5.85
SWN1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 6.10/ 6.30

05/07/11 New stop loss @ 37.75

Current Target(s): $50.00-52.50
Current Stop loss: 37.75
Play Entered on: 04/07/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/02/11


Union Pacific Corp. - UNP - close: 102.34

05/07 update: UNP was a watch list candidate that hit our trigger to open positions last week. We wanted to see a dip back toward support near $100 and the newsletter had a trigger at $100.25. UNP hit that trigger on May 5th. Actually UNP gapped open lower at $100.15 that morning opening our trade. If you missed the entry point consider waiting for a dip into the $101-100 zone as another entry although considering the big picture I would still consider bullish positions right now instead of waiting.

We have a stop loss at $94.45. Our long-term targets are $119.75 and $134.00.

NOTE: Last week there was a typo in the watch list. I wrote "buy the 2013 Jan. $110 call" but listed the 2012 option symbol. This is supposed to be the 2012 $110 call since we already have a 2013 call listed below.

- Current Positions -
May 5, 2011 - entry price on UNP @ 100.15, option @ 5.00
UNP1221A110 2012 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $ 5.05/ 5.20

- or -

May 5, 2011 - entry price on UNP @ 100.15, option @ 6.00
UNP1319A120 2013 JAN $120 call - current bid/ask $ 6.20/ 6.55

Chart of UNP:

Current Target(s): $119.75-134.00
Current Stop loss: 94.45
Play Entered on: 05/05/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/30/11


CLOSED Plays


Citigroup, Inc. - C - close: 4.52

05/07 update: Our trade on Citigroup is over. The plan was to exit positions on Friday to avoid holding over the 1-for-10 reverse stock split occurring this weekend. Shares will open on Monday morning around $45.20 and the number of outstanding shares will drop from 29 billion to 2.9 billion. Unfortunately for us the stock has not moved much. Shares have been stuck in this sideways range between $4.35 and $4.60 for several weeks.

The 2012 Jan $5.00 call closed with a bid at $0.22. The 2013 Jan $5.00 call closed with a bid at $0.52.

- Closed Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry Citigroup stock (C) @ 4.60, closed @ 4.52 (-1.7%)

- or -

Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on C @ 4.60, option @ $0.48
symbol: C1221A5 2012 JAN $5 call - Exit @ 0.22 (-54.1%)

- or -

Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on C @ 4.60, option @ $0.85
symbol: C1319A5 2013 JAN $5 call - Exit @ 0.52 (- 38.8%)

05/06/11 Planned exit on Friday at the closing bell.
04/30/11 Plan on exiting these positions on Friday, May 6th at the close.

Chart of C:

Current Target: $6.50, and $7.75
Current Stop loss: 4.19
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/19/11


SPDR Gold ETF - GLD - close: 145.30

05/07 update: Last week was an ugly one for commodities. Gold and silver reversed midday on Monday and it was all downhill from there. Silver took the worst hit but the GLD fell from $153.61 at its high on Monday to $142.55 at its low on Thursday. Our stop loss at $149.40 was hit on May 3rd. The bid on our 2012 Jan. $130 call was trading near $22.00.

While our play has been closed, readers may want to keep an eye on the GLD. The $140 area should offer some support.

- Current Positions -
Aug 6, 2010 - entry price on GLD @ 118.00, option @ 12.45*
symbol: GLD1221A130 2012 Jan $130 call - current bid/ask $24.80/25.35

*Adjusted entry price from $10.75 to $12.45.

05/03/11 Stopped out @ 149.40, Option @ $22.00 (+76.7%)
04/30/11 New stop loss @ 149.40, new exit target @ 157.00
04/16/11 New stop loss @ 139.40, new exit target @ $159
*04/16/11 April put has expired. $1.70 added to our cost.
02/26/11 New stop loss @ 127.00
01/18/11 GLD opened at $133.63. April $125 put opened at $1.70
01/15/11 Added April Puts to protect ourselves from further declines.
01/08/11 Expecting a correction toward $125
11/09/10 Target hit - GLD opened at $138.70, 2011 Mar. Call opened @ $20.00 (+159%)
11/06/10 new stop @ 123.40
10/30/10 New stop @ 121.00. Readers may want to exit ahead of FOMC meeting
10/02/10 Sell half of the 2011 March calls, option @ 12.70 (+64.9%)
10/02/10 New stop $ 118.49
09/25/10 New stop @ 116.45, new target 138.50

Chart of GLD:

Current Target(s): $149.00
Current Stop loss: 127.00
Play Entered on: 08/06/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 06/05/10


Petroleo Brasileiro (a.k.a. Petrobras) - PBR - close: 34.35

05/07 update: The sell-off in commodities was not limited to precious metals. Crude oil was hammered for a huge loss on Thursday. The oil stocks were already succumbing to profit taking and Thursday's decline in the commodity just made it worse. Shares of PBR had actually hit our stop loss the day before on May 4th when it broke down under support near the simple 200-dma and at the $36.00 level.

Our play was closed at $35.75. The bid on the 2012 Jan $40 call was near $1.85 and the bid on the 2013 Jan. $45 call was near $2.15.

Prior Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small because PBR can be a volatile stock.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Apr 12, 2011 - entry price on PBR @ 39.00, option @ 3.35
symbol: PBR1221A40 2012 JAN $40 call - Exit @ 1.85 (- 44.7%)

- or -

Apr 12, 2011 - entry price on PBR @ 39.00, option @ 3.15
symbol: PBR1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - Exit @ 2.15 (-31.7%)

05/04/11 Stopped out @ $35.75.

Chart of PBR:

Current Target(s): $53.00
Current Stop loss: 35.75
Play Entered on: 04/12/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/26/11