Closed Plays


PCAR has been closed.


Play Updates


Boeing Co. - BA - close: 76.99

05/28 update: BA did indeed dip toward support near $75.00 and its 50-dma. Traders bought this dip on Wednesday morning. Since then BA has been struggling with technical resistance at its 30-dma. This bounce looks like a new bullish entry point but my market bias makes me cautious on new positions. If the major indices continue to slide then we could see BA testing its 100-dma. I remain long-term bullish here but hesitant on initiating new positions.

- Current Positions -
Apr 27, 2011 - entry price on BA @ 76.50, option @ 4.50
symbol: BA1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 4.60/ 4.70

Apr 27, 2011 - entry price on BA @ 76.50, option @ 4.95
symbol: BA1319A90 2013 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 4.90/ 5.10

05/14/11 New stop loss @ 73.90
04/27/11 Play opened. Small positions.

Current Target: $89.00, and $104.00
Current Stop loss: 73.90
Play Entered on: 04/27/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/26/11


BE Aerospace Inc. - BEAV - close: 36.63

05/28 update: Stay cautious on BEAV. Shares did breakout but the break was down. The stock did find support in the $35.50 area like it did in April and early May. Yet the bounce is now stalling at the small cloud of moving averages overhead. We do not want to open new positions here. If you look at the daily chart you'll notice that the 200-dma has been support over and over again. Currently the 200-dma has risen to the $35 level. We'll see if it holds again.

Note: We have less than two full months left before July options expire!

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on BEAV @ 34.00, option @ 2.75
symbol: BEAV1116G35 2011 JUL $35 call - current bid/ask $ 2.50/ 2.65

05/14/11 Sell at least half now. Bid @ $3.60 (+30.9)
05/14/11 Adjusted upside target to $42.50
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 34.75
04/30/11 New stop loss @ 33.95
04/09/11 New stop loss @ 32.95
04/02/11 New stop loss @ 31.95

Current Target: $42.50
Current Stop loss: 34.75
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/22/11


Bristol-Myers Squibb Company - BMY - close: 28.47

05/28 update: The good news for BMY this past week is that prior resistance near $28.00 held up as support. On the other hand a lot of short-term technicals still looks bearish. While this bounce from $28 looks like a potential entry point for bullish positions my market bias makes me hesitant to launch new positions.

Our long-term target is $32.00. Investors might want to consider turning this trade into a calendar spread or vertical spread to maximize its potential.

- Suggested Positions -
Mar 14, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 26.14, option @ 1.13
symbol: BMY1221A27.5 2012 JAN $27.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.95/ 1.98

- or -

Mar 14, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 26.14, option @ 1.63
symbol: BMY1319A27.5 2013 JAN $27.50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.68/ 2.76

Current Target: $32.00
Current Stop loss: 24.95
Play Entered on: 03/14/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 03/12/11


CACI International - CACI - close: 62.56

05/28 update: CACI delivered a hard-fought gain this past week. Shares dipped toward support near $60.00 before bouncing. The rebound in the last couple of days was just enough to push CACI to a gain on the week. Volume was improving on the rally, which is a positive sign. I would consider this bounce a new entry point for bullish positions. Please note that we're raising our stop loss to $59.25.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a more aggressive trade and if we keep our position size small we can limit our risk. Our first upside target is $69.00. CACI doesn't have LEAPS so we'll have to use the 2011 September calls.

- Current (small) Positions -
Apr 4, 2011 - entry price on CACI @ 62.04, option @ 3.30
symbol: CACI1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 2.05/ 2.55

- 2nd Position -

May 31, 2011 - entry price on CACI @ xx.xx, option @ x.xx
symbol: CACI1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 2.05/ 2.55

05/28/11 New stop loss @ 59.25.
05/28/11 New entry point on the bounce. 2nd position above.
05/07/11 New stop loss @ 57.75

Chart of CACI

Current Target: $69.00
Current Stop loss: 57.75
Play Entered on: 04/04/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/12/11


Canadian Natl. Railway Co. - CNI - close: 77.31

05/28 update: Railroad stocks managed to outperform their transport brethren. CNI rallied from its lows near $74 back toward its all-time highs near $78. If you're looking for new positions I'd probably wait for another dip and then buy the bounce from the $75-76 area. Or you could wait for a close over its early May highs but keep in mind the $80 level might be round-number resistance.

- Current Positions -
Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on CNI @ 72.39, option @ 2.90
symbol: CNI1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 3.60/ 3.90

05/21/11 new stop loss @ 71.75
05/05/11 new entry point @ 75.00
04/02/11 New stop loss @ 69.00

Current Target: $89.00
Current Stop loss: 71.75
Play Entered on: 02/28/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/26/11


Costco Wholesale - COST - close: 81.53

05/28 update: Right on cue COST hit some profit taking on its earnings report. The stock actually started to falter ahead of the report thanks to the market's weakness early last week. Analysts were expecting a profit of 77 cents a share. COST delivered 80 cents with revenues up +16% to $20.62 billion, which also beat estimates. The stock declined toward its early May lows and found support at its rising 40-dma. The bounce has risen just enough to fill the gap down. The question now is will COST continue to rise or will the correction continue?

I'm going to err on the side of caution and expect a correction toward the 50-dma. If that level fails then look for a drop to the 100-dma, which was support in March. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on COST @ 76.37, option @ 3.80
symbol:COST1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 6.05/ 6.20

- or -

Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on COST @ 76.37, option @ 5.05
symbol:COST1319A85 2013 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $ 7.10/ 7.30

05/21/11 Take Profits - Sell Half now! COST @ 83.40.
2012 $80 call @ $7.55 (+98.6%), 2013 $85 call @ $8.30 (+64.3%)
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 75.75
04/30/11 New stop loss @ 73.40

Current Target: $89.50, 99.00
Current Stop loss: 75.75
Play Entered on: 04/07/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11


Walt Disney Co. - DIS - close: 41.52

05/28 update: DIS continues to trade sideways. The stock has now spent two weeks consolidating sideways near support in the $41 area. There are several moving averages all converging near resistance at $42.00. If you're looking for a new entry point I'd be tempted to buy calls again if we see DIS close over $42.00 but if you do buy calls you'll want to consider a tighter (higher) stop loss.

- Current Positions -
Oct 27, 2010 - entry price on DIS @ 35.60, option @ 2.23
symbol: DIS1221A40 2012 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 3.95/ 4.05

- or -

Oct 27, 2010 - entry price on DIS @ 35.60, option @ 3.63
symbol: DIS1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 6.05/ 6.20

02/12/11 New stop loss @ 37.85
02/09/11 1st Target Hit. Options @ +137% and +103%
02/05/11 New stop loss @ 35.75
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 34.95
01/08/11 Target changed to $43.00 and $46.00
10/27/10 Play opened, DIS opened @ $35.60

Current Target(s): $43.00, 49.00
Current Stop loss: 37.85
Play Entered on: 10/27/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 10/24/10


Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. - DPS - close: 41.06

05/28 update: We have been expecting a dip back toward $40.00, which should be support. It looks like the correction back to $40 has begun. I would consider new positions on a decline near $40.00 but more conservative traders might want to wait and buy the bounce. Currently our exit target is $46.00. DPS does not have LEAPS so we'll have to use the November 2011 calls.

- Current Positions -
May 11, 2011 - entry price on DPS @ 40.55, option @ 2.85
symbol: DPS1119K40 2011 NOV $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.80/ 3.40

- or -

May 11, 2011 - entry price on DPS @ 40.55, option @ 1.00
symbol: DPS1119K45 2011 NOV $45 call - current bid/ask $ 0.95/ 1.15

Current Target: $46.00
Current Stop loss: 37.95
Play Entered on: 05/11/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/07/11


Darden Restaurants - DRI - close: $50.92

05/28 update: Not surprisingly DRI did pull back into the $51-50 zone. I would be tempted to launch positions here but you might want to wait for a dip closer to the 30-dma instead. I remain long-term bullish on DRI but my short-term market bias is clouded and there's a good chance the market continues to slip. Our long-term targets are $59.50 and $64.75.

- Current Positions -
May 19, 2011 - entry price on DRI @ 52.03, option @ 2.74
symbol: DRI1221A55 2012 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $ 2.10/ 2.30

- or -

May 19, 2011 - entry price on DRI @ 52.03, option @ 5.50
symbol: DRI1319A55 2013 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $ 4.40/ 4.80

Current Target: $59.50, 64.75
Current Stop loss: 47.40
Play Entered on: 05/19/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/14/11


Brinker International - EAT - close: 25.80

05/28 update: Restaurant names are still showing relative strength. EAT ended the week near its multi-year highs. Shares look poised to breakout past resistance near $26 soon. I am not suggesting new long-term positions but short-term traders may want to consider calls on a breakout past $26.

Please note our new stop loss at $23.90, just under the 100-dma. FYI: We have less than two full months before July options expire.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on EAT @ 22.50, option @ $ 1.10
symbol: EAT1116G25 2011 JUL $25 call - current bid/ask $ 1.35/ 1.60

05/28/11 New stop @ 23.90
04/02/11 New stop @ 22.90
03/26/11 New stop @ $21.95

Current Target: $29.50
Current Stop loss: 23.90
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/12/11


Ford Motor Co - F - close: 14.60

05/28 update: Uh-oh! Stock market weakness last Monday (May 23rd) was enough to push Ford under support near its 50 and 200-dma. This move also breaks the two-month trend of higher lows. Ford now has a multi-week trend of lower highs and lower lows. All is not lost - yet. The $14.50 level has been on and off again support for a long time. Ford has been consolidating sideways near $14.50 the last few days. Unfortunately the trend is now down.

More conservative traders may want to abandon ship right now. If the stock market continues to slip then Ford could be facing a drop toward its March lows. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on F @ 15.29, option @ 2.17
symbol: F1221A15 2012 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 1.22/ 1.26

- or -

Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on F @ 15.29, option @ 1.50
symbol: F1319A20 2013 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 0.84/ 0.89

- Second Position, listed May 7th, 2011 -

May 9, 2011 - entry price on F @ 15.12, option @ 1.71
symbol: F1221A15 2012 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $ 1.22/ 1.26

- or -

May 9, 2011 - entry price on F @ 15.12, option @ 1.09
symbol: F1319A20 2013 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $ 0.84/ 0.89

05/28/11 Ford is growing weaker. Conservative traders may want to exit early now.
05/21/11 New stop loss @ 13.49
05/07/11 New entry point on bounce from $15.00
03/26/11 New stop loss @ $12.95

Current Target: $19.75, and $24.00
Current Stop loss: 13.49
Play Entered on: 02/28/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/26/11


Fiserv, Inc. - FISV - close: 63.46

05/28 update: On Wednesday FISV announced that its Board had approved a stock buyback program of up to 7.5 million shares (about 5% of the outstanding shares). It's unclear if this replaces or adds to the previous buyback program that still had 1.8 million shares left to go. The stock was trending higher this past week and managed a gain. FISV is quickly approaching resistance and its all-time highs in the $64-65 area. The relative strength is encouraging but I'm not suggesting new positions at these levels. More conservative traders might want to raise their stops near the $60 level.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 14, 2011 - entry price on FISV @ 62.30, option @ 3.20
symbol: FISV1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 2.05/ 2.25

Current Target: $74.75
Current Stop loss: 57.50
Play Entered on: 02/14/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/12/11


James River Coal Co. - JRCC - close: 21.68

05/28 update: JRCC managed to post a gain for the week after traders bought the dip near $20.25 midweek. Tuesday's close under the 200-dma was worrisome but thankfully JRCC recovered quickly. JRCC has essentially been churning sideways in the $20-22 zone the last two weeks. The $22 level remains resistance. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

FYI: The spreads on our 2013 LEAPS just got a LOT wider!

- Current Positions -
Apr 12, 2011 - entry price on JRCC @ 22.50, option @ 3.10
symbol: JRCC1221A25 2012 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 1.90/ 2.15

- or -

Apr 12, 2011 - entry price on JRCC @ 22.50, option @ 4.70
symbol: JRCC1319A27 2013 JAN $27 call - current bid/ask $ 2.00/ 3.70

Current Target: $29.50
Current Stop loss: 19.90
Play Entered on: 04/12/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/22/11


Monsanto Co. - MON - close: 69.64

05/28 update: What a difference two weeks can make. MON has produced a significant bounce with the stock up seven out of the last eight session. It looks like the stock may have stalled with Friday's session unable to rally past resistance near $70 and its 100-dma. At this point the trend from the last few months remains a bearish one of lower highs and lower lows. More conservative traders may want to abandon ship right now. On a short-term basis I would expect a pull back into the $67-65 area. If MON can find support above $65 and its 200-dma again and it produces a new higher low then we might reconsider new positions. Tonight I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Prior Comments:
Our plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk since MON can be so volatile at times. Our long-term targets are the $85-90 zone.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Mar 15, 2011 - entry price on MON @ 65.50, option @ 6.75
symbol: MON1221A70 2012 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 6.40/ 6.55

- or -

Mar 15, 2011 - entry price on MON @ 65.50, option @ 8.75
symbol: MON1319A75 2013 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 8.15/ 8.35

04/09/11 New stop loss @ 61.75, Readers may want to exit early now.

Chart of MON:

Current Target(s): $85.00
Current Stop loss: 61.75
Play Entered on: 03/15/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/08/11


Scotts Miracle Grow Co. - SMG - close: 59.06

05/28 update: SMG has been showing some impressive relative strength the last few days. The stock is back above resistance near $58.00 and resistance at several of its key moving averages. I would not chase SMG here but we can start looking for a new entry point. Shares are nearing prior resistance in the $60.00-60.50 area.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk. SMG doesn't have LEAPS so we'll have to buy September calls. Our target is the $65-70 zone.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Mar 25, 2011 - entry price on SMG @ 58.00, option @ 3.00
SMG1117I60 2011 SEP $60 call - current bid/ask $ 2.35/ 2.65

Current Target(s): $65.00-70.00
Current Stop loss: 53.75
Play Entered on: 03/25/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/05/11


Southwestern Energy Co. - SWN - close: 43.37

05/28 update: Energy stocks have been slowly drifting higher all week or at least off Monday's lows. SWN is no different but shares are nearing prior resistance in the $44.00-44.50 area. I would not launch new positions at these levels. On a positive note the 50-dma should offer some technical support. Please note our new stop loss at $39.45.

Earlier comments:
We wanted to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on SWN @ 40.50, option @ 2.90
SWN1221A45 2012 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.70/ 3.80

- or -

Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on SWN @ 40.50, option @ 5.85
SWN1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 6.70/ 7.00

05/28/11 new stop loss @ 39.45
05/07/11 New stop loss @ 37.75

Current Target(s): $50.00-52.50
Current Stop loss: 39.45
Play Entered on: 04/07/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/02/11


Union Pacific Corp. - UNP - close: 103.53

05/28 update: My comments on CNI apply to UNP as well. Railroad stocks have been performing well and outperformed the market's major averages and the transportation index. On a short-term basis UNP is now testing resistance at the $104 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Nimble traders may want to consider buying calls on another bounce from the $100 level. Please note our new stop loss at $97.00.

- Current Positions -
May 5, 2011 - entry price on UNP @ 100.15, option @ 5.00
UNP1221A110 2012 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $ 5.10/ 5.25

- or -

May 5, 2011 - entry price on UNP @ 100.15, option @ 6.00
UNP1319A120 2013 JAN $120 call - current bid/ask $ 6.35/ 7.20

05/28/11 New stop loss @ 97.00

Current Target(s): $119.75-134.00
Current Stop loss: 97.00
Play Entered on: 05/05/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/30/11


CLOSED Plays


PACCAR Inc. - PCAR - close: 49.45

05/28 update: Attention! Readers have a choice to make here. The stock market just posted its fourth weekly decline in a row. Shares of PCAR has continued to weaken as well. The oversold bounce on Wednesday just failed near its exponential 200-dma. The stock has a bearish trend of lower highs and lower lows. On a short-term basis I would seriously consider an early exit immediately! The only reason I would not exit now is the weekly chart. PCAR is testing its long-term trendline of support on the weekly chart and it has not broken support yet. Of course the breakdown could happen soon.

I am suggesting we go ahead and exit positions now. Given the weakness in the market's major averages I wouldn't be surprised to see PCAR drop toward its March lows.

FYI: If looks like PCAR must have had some sort of special dividend to create these odd strike prices. Instead of a normal $55.00 strike price PCAR has $54.70 strikes.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Mar 21, 2011 - entry price on PCAR @ 50.75, option @ 3.70
PCAR1221A54.7 2012 JAN $54.70 call - Exit @ 2.35 (-36.4%)

- or -

Mar 21, 2011 - entry price on PCAR @ 50.75, option @ 8.00
PCAR1319A54.7 2013 JAN $54.70 call - exit @ 5.10 (-36.2%)

05/28/11 Exit early. Options @ -36.4% & -36.2%
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 47.75

Chart of PCAR

Weekly Chart of PCAR

Current Target(s): $58.00, 64.00
Current Stop loss: 47.75
Play Entered on: 03/21/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/19/11