Closed Plays


DRI, EAT, JRCC, and SMG have been closed.


Play Updates


Boeing Co. - BA - close: 72.69

06/11 update: If you did not change your stop loss with us last week then BA has hit our prior stop at $73.90. Shares tried to hold support at the 100-dma but broke down again on Friday. Now shares are nearing their long-term trendline of support (higher lows) and what should be additional support near $70.00 and the simple 200-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Wait for BA to test and bounce from the $70 area and then we can re-evaluate launching new positions.

FYI: We only have small positions open to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Apr 27, 2011 - entry price on BA @ 76.50, option @ 4.50
symbol: BA1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 2.81/ 2.87

Apr 27, 2011 - entry price on BA @ 76.50, option @ 4.95
symbol: BA1319A90 2013 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 3.30/ 3.50

06/04/11 re-evaluated our risk and moved the stop loss to $69.75 under the simple 200-dma
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 73.90
04/27/11 Play opened. Small positions.

Current Target: $89.00, and $104.00
Current Stop loss: 69.75
Play Entered on: 04/27/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/26/11


BE Aerospace Inc. - BEAV - close: 36.99

06/11 update: BEAV actually managed a gain for the week. Shares got a pop on Tuesday when Goldman Sachs added them to their conviction buy list. The rally didn't make much progress as BEAV continues to churn sideways in a neutral pattern of lower highs and higher lows. More conservative traders may want to exit now to minimize any losses. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Note: We have about five weeks left before July options expire!

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on BEAV @ 34.00, option @ 2.75
symbol: BEAV1116G35 2011 JUL $35 call - current bid/ask $ 2.60/ 2.75

05/14/11 Sell at least half now. Bid @ $3.60 (+30.9)
05/14/11 Adjusted upside target to $42.50
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 34.75
04/30/11 New stop loss @ 33.95
04/09/11 New stop loss @ 32.95
04/02/11 New stop loss @ 31.95

Current Target: $42.50
Current Stop loss: 34.75
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/22/11


Bristol-Myers Squibb Company - BMY - close: 27.45

06/11 update: The correction in BMY continues. I've been warning readers to look for a dip near $27.00. Early last week shares bounced at $27.50 but the rebound struggled with old resistance at $28.00. Now BMY is rolling over again and appears headed for the next level of support near $27.00 and the 200-dma. I would wait for a dip near $27.00 and its 200-dma before considering new bullish positions.

Our long-term target is $32.00. Investors might want to consider turning this trade into a calendar spread or vertical spread to maximize its potential.

- Suggested Positions -
Mar 14, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 26.14, option @ 1.13
symbol: BMY1221A27.5 2012 JAN $27.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.40/ 1.44

- or -

Mar 14, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 26.14, option @ 1.63
symbol: BMY1319A27.5 2013 JAN $27.50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.11/ 2.19

06/04/11 New stop loss @ 25.90

Current Target: $32.00
Current Stop loss: 24.95
Play Entered on: 03/14/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 03/12/11


CACI International - CACI - close: 60.06

06/11 update: CACI has spent the week consolidating sideways near $60.00 and its 100-dma. If we had not moved our stop loss to $58.75 this play would have been stopped out on Monday. The bad news is that the short-term trend is still down. CACI may have bounced twice from technical support at the 100-dma but the stock looks poised to breakdown further. I strongly suggest that more conservative traders consider an early exit now.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a more aggressive trade and if we keep our position size small we can limit our risk. Our first upside target is $69.00. CACI doesn't have LEAPS so we'll have to use the 2011 September calls.

- Current (small) Positions -
Apr 4, 2011 - entry price on CACI @ 62.04, option @ 3.30
symbol: CACI1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 1.25/ 1.45

- 2nd Position -

May 31, 2011 - entry price on CACI @ 63.14, option @ 2.65*
symbol: CACI1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 1.25/ 1.45

06/04/11 Adjustment - new stop @ 58.75
*5/31/11 estimate on the entry point of our 2nd position
05/28/11 New stop loss @ 59.25.
05/28/11 New entry point on the bounce. 2nd position above.
05/07/11 New stop loss @ 57.75

Current Target: $69.00
Current Stop loss: 58.75
Play Entered on: 04/04/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/12/11


Canadian Natl. Railway Co. - CNI - close: 75.13

06/11 update: The last two weeks have seen a huge sell-off in the transports as investors worry about a slow down in the economy. The railroad stocks were not immune. Fortunately CNI has fared better than some of its peers but shares still look poised to move lower. I'm still expecting a dip toward the 100-dma. Let's wait and see if shares can bounce off this moving average before considering new positions.

- Current Positions -
Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on CNI @ 72.39, option @ 2.90
symbol: CNI1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 2.95/ 3.20

05/21/11 new stop loss @ 71.75
05/05/11 new entry point @ 75.00
04/02/11 New stop loss @ 69.00

Current Target: $89.00
Current Stop loss: 71.75
Play Entered on: 02/28/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/26/11


Coach Inc. - COH - close: 59.12

06/11 update: COH broke down under the $60 level this past week. The stock looks poised to test support near $58.00 and its 50-dma soon. We have a stop loss at $57.40. More aggressive traders might want to consider placing their stop under the $55 level instead. Investors are turning more cautious on the retailers. Previously the high-end retailers seemed immune but COH has produced a two-week correction.

I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. I'd prefer to wait for either a strong bounce from $58 or maybe a close back above $61.00 before considering new positions. The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Jun 03, 2011 - entry price on COH @ 61.00, option @ 4.40
symbol: COH1221A65 2012 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $ 3.40/ 3.60

- or -

Jun 03, 2011 - entry price on COH @ 61.00, option @ 6.80
symbol: COH1319A70 2013 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 5.40/ 5.70

Current Target: $75.00
Current Stop loss: 57.40
Play Entered on: 06/03/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/28/11


Costco Wholesale - COST - close: 78.30

06/11 update: I want to urge caution on COST. The stock posted a bounce this past week but shares are still in correction move. The rebound appears to be rolling over under resistance at $80 and I would expect COST to fall toward the next level of support near $76.00 and the 100-dma. We currently have a stop loss at $74.75 but more conservative traders may want to consider a higher stop. Or you may want to exit completely right here. You could exit now and avoid a loss. A drop toward $76 or $75 would be a painful one for the call options.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on COST @ 76.37, option @ 3.80
symbol:COST1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 4.30/ 4.40

- or -

Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on COST @ 76.37, option @ 5.05
symbol:COST1319A85 2013 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $ 5.65/ 5.85

06/04/11 Adjusting our stop to $74.75
05/21/11 Take Profits - Sell Half now! COST @ 83.40.
2012 $80 call @ $7.55 (+98.6%), 2013 $85 call @ $8.30 (+64.3%)
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 75.75
04/30/11 New stop loss @ 73.40

Current Target: $89.50, 99.00
Current Stop loss: 74.75
Play Entered on: 04/07/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11


Walt Disney Co. - DIS - close: 38.50

06/11 update: Mayday! Mayday! Mayday! The DIS ship is sinking! Two weeks ago the stock broke down under the $40 level. Now after a week of churning sideways between $40 and technical support at the 200-dma, shares have broken down under the 200-dma this Friday. Broken resistance near $38.00 should still be support but readers may want to exit early anyway. We have a stop loss at $37.85. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Oct 27, 2010 - entry price on DIS @ 35.60, option @ 2.23
symbol: DIS1221A40 2012 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.17/ 2.22

- or -

Oct 27, 2010 - entry price on DIS @ 35.60, option @ 3.63
symbol: DIS1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 4.20/ 4.35

06/04/11 DIS is breaking key support. consider an early exit now.
02/12/11 New stop loss @ 37.85
02/09/11 1st Target Hit. Options @ +137% and +103%
02/05/11 New stop loss @ 35.75
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 34.95
01/08/11 Target changed to $43.00 and $46.00
10/27/10 Play opened, DIS opened @ $35.60

Current Target(s): $43.00, 49.00
Current Stop loss: 37.85
Play Entered on: 10/27/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 10/24/10


Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. - DPS - close: 40.31

06/11 update: DPS managed to eke out a weekly gain by the smallest of margins. Shares found support at their rising 50-dma. Under normal circumstances I would consider this bounce near support at $40 and near support at the 50-dma as a new bullish entry point. However, given the market's six-week sell-off with no relief in sight yet I would hesitate to launch new bullish positions. Currently our exit target is $46.00. DPS does not have LEAPS so we'll have to use the November 2011 calls.

- Current Positions -
May 11, 2011 - entry price on DPS @ 40.55, option @ 2.85
symbol: DPS1119K40 2011 NOV $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.45/ 2.65

- or -

May 11, 2011 - entry price on DPS @ 40.55, option @ 1.00
symbol: DPS1119K45 2011 NOV $45 call - current bid/ask $ 0.75/ 0.90

Current Target: $46.00
Current Stop loss: 37.95
Play Entered on: 05/11/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/07/11


Fiserv, Inc. - FISV - close: 62.31

06/11 update: Little has changed for our FISV trade. The stock managed to post a gain for the week but shares still look poised to correct lower. If you look at the last few weeks FISV has created a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. A breakdown under the neckline near $62 would forecast a drop toward $59.00 and likely the 200-dma. Naturally a drop to $60 would have a very ugly impact on our call option. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 14, 2011 - entry price on FISV @ 62.30, option @ 3.20
symbol: FISV1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 1.50/ 1.80

06/04/11 new stop loss @ 58.45

Current Target: $74.75
Current Stop loss: 58.45
Play Entered on: 02/14/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/12/11


Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 21.38

06/11 update: It was another bearish week for INTC. The stock struggled with short-term technical resistance at its 10-dma all week long. Then on Friday shares broke down under their 100-dma. I have been warning readers that we might get a better entry point on a dip near $21.00 and its 200-dma. We could see INTC hit this level pretty soon. Wait for the dip or bounce near $21 before considering new positions. Our long-term (multi-month targets) is the $26-28 zone.

- Current Positions -
Jun 01, 2011 - entry price on INTC @ 22.00, option @ 1.41
symbol: INTC1221A22.5 2012 JAN $22.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.07/ 1.11

- or -

Jun 01, 2011 - entry price on INTC @ 22.00, option @ 2.38
symbol: INTC1319A22.5 2013 JAN $22.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.99/ 2.05

Current Target: $26.00-28.00 zone
Current Stop loss: 20.45
Play Entered on: 06/01/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/07/11


Monsanto Co. - MON - close: 68.77

06/11 update: Some of the agriculture names rallied on Thursday in response to the latest USDA crop report. MON was one of them and the stock bounced from support near its 30 and 40-dma. Unfortunately the rebound has stalled at resistance near $70 and its 100-dma. The early June pull back in MON was essentially a 50% retracement of the rally off its May lows. The intermediate trend is technically up but MON has yet to break through the bearish trend of lower highs and lower lows dating back to February. Cautious traders may want to raise their stops closer to the $64 or $65 levels. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. MON is due to report earnings on June 29th.

Prior Comments:
Our plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk since MON can be so volatile at times. Our long-term targets are the $85-90 zone.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Mar 15, 2011 - entry price on MON @ 65.50, option @ 6.75
symbol: MON1221A70 2012 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 5.85/ 5.95

- or -

Mar 15, 2011 - entry price on MON @ 65.50, option @ 8.75
symbol: MON1319A75 2013 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 7.70/ 8.05

04/09/11 New stop loss @ 61.75, Readers may want to exit early now.

Current Target(s): $85.00
Current Stop loss: 61.75
Play Entered on: 03/15/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/08/11


Southwestern Energy Co. - SWN - close: 42.22

06/11 update: Energy stocks look vulnerable here. Thus far SWN has been able to buck the trend and this stock continues to build a bullish trend of higher lows. Yet the rallies have been unable to breakout and close above resistance at $44.00. I suspect that SWN's pattern of higher lows could get broken soon and shares might drop toward support near $40.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier comments:
We wanted to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on SWN @ 40.50, option @ 2.90
SWN1221A45 2012 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.15/ 3.25

- or -

Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on SWN @ 40.50, option @ 5.85
SWN1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 6.10/ 6.35

05/28/11 new stop loss @ 39.45
05/07/11 New stop loss @ 37.75

Current Target(s): $50.00-52.50
Current Stop loss: 39.45
Play Entered on: 04/07/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/02/11


Union Pacific Corp. - UNP - close: 99.60

06/11 update: Warning! Once again UNP looks poised to correct lower. On a very short-term basis UNP has a trend of lower highs and lower lows. This past week also saw UNP close under support at its 50-dma and under the $100.00 level. There is still some support at prior resistance near $99.00 and if this breaks then the 100-dma might offer support near $98. Currently we have a stop loss at $97.00. My concern is a breakdown under its 100-dma could lead to a drop toward the 200-dma, hitting our stop loss along the way. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
May 5, 2011 - entry price on UNP @ 100.15, option @ 5.00
UNP1221A110 2012 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $ 3.70/ 3.80

- or -

May 5, 2011 - entry price on UNP @ 100.15, option @ 6.00
UNP1319A120 2013 JAN $120 call - current bid/ask $ 5.40/ 5.60

05/28/11 New stop loss @ 97.00

Current Target(s): $119.75-134.00
Current Stop loss: 97.00
Play Entered on: 05/05/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/30/11


Zimmer Holdings, Inc. - ZMH - close: 62.86

06/11 update: The correction in ZMH accelerated lower this past week with a drop below support at $65.00 and below support at the 50-dma. Our trigger to buy calls was hit on Friday at $63.00. Shares are nearing their 100-dma and if this level fails then it's probably a quick drop toward the next level of support near $60.00.

Healthcare stocks had been one of the market's strongest sectors. When this market correction is over I expect healthcare to remain popular with investors. I like ZMH since an aging baby boomer population is going to see rising demand for ZMH's replacement joints and implants. In the meantime readers may want to hesitate on launching new positions. We might get a better entry point near $60 if we're patient.

Our long-term targets are $78.50 and $88.50, although the high $80s might be a little optimistic.

- Current Positions -
Jun 10, 2011 - entry price on ZMH @ 63.00, option @ 4.00
ZMH1221A65 2012 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $ 3.80/ 4.00

- or -

Jun 10, 2011 - entry price on ZMH @ 63.00, option @ 5.50
ZMH1319A70 2013 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 5.00/ 5.50

Chart of ZMH:

Current Target(s): $78.50 & 88.50
Current Stop loss: 58.90
Play Entered on: 06/10/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/30/11


CLOSED Plays


Darden Restaurants - DRI - close: $46.96

06/11 update: Abandon ship! DRI has continued to correct lower. This past week saw a breakdown under its long-term trendline of support and below its 200-dma on Friday. DRI hit a low of $46.81 and our stop is at $46.75. I am suggesting an early exit now. More aggressive traders might want to reconsider and let it ride since DRI is very short-term oversold and due for a bounce but if you do keep your position open you may want to widen your stop loss even further.

- Current Positions -
May 19, 2011 - entry price on DRI @ 52.03, option @ 2.74
symbol: DRI1221A55 2012 JAN $55 call - Exit @ $ 0.95 (-65.3%)

- or -

May 19, 2011 - entry price on DRI @ 52.03, option @ 5.50
symbol: DRI1319A55 2013 JAN $55 call - Exit @ $ 3.00 (-45.4%)

06/11/11 Exit early. DRI @ 46.96. Options @ -65.3% & -45.4%
06/04/11 adjusted stop loss to $46.75, under the 200-dma.

Chart of DRI:

Current Target: $59.50, 64.75
Current Stop loss: 46.75
Play Entered on: 05/19/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/14/11


Brinker International - EAT - close: 23.29

06/11 update: The correction lower continues in EAT. This past week saw the stock break support at its 100-dma and quickly hit our stop loss at $23.90. Our play was closed on Monday morning.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on EAT @ 22.50, option @ $ 1.10
symbol: EAT1116G25 2011 JUL $25 call - Exit @ 0.50 (-54.5%)

06/06/11 stopped out @ 23.90, Option @ -54.5%
05/28/11 New stop @ 23.90
04/02/11 New stop @ 22.90
03/26/11 New stop @ $21.95

Chart of EAT:

Current Target: $29.50
Current Stop loss: 23.90
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/12/11


James River Coal Co. - JRCC - close: 19.80

06/11 update: JRCC broke down under support at $20.00 and hit our stop loss at $19.90 on June 6th.

- Current Positions -
Apr 12, 2011 - entry price on JRCC @ 22.50, option @ 3.10
symbol: JRCC1221A25 2012 JAN $25 call - Exit @ $1.25 (-59.6%)

- or -

Apr 12, 2011 - entry price on JRCC @ 22.50, option @ 4.70
symbol: JRCC1319A27 2013 JAN $27 call - Exit @ $2.25 (-52.1%)

06/06/11 Stopped out @ 19.90, Options @ -59.6% & -52.1%
06/04/11 JRCC has reversed and is now back under its 200-dma. Consider an early exit now.

Chart of JRCC:

Current Target: $29.50
Current Stop loss: 19.90
Play Entered on: 04/12/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/22/11


Scotts Miracle Grow Co. - SMG - close: 51.64

06/11 update: Ouch! It was a rough week for SMG. The stock was downgraded on Monday morning before the open. Combine that with a down day for the markets on Monday and SMG gapped open lower at $53.91 and quickly plunged through its 200-dma. Shares hit our stop loss at $53.00 on June 6th. The stock hasn't seen much of a bounce either with shares slowly sinking throughout the rest of the week.

Earlier Comments:
We wanted to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Mar 25, 2011 - entry price on SMG @ 58.00, option @ 3.00
SMG1117I60 2011 SEP $60 call - Exit @ $0.50 (-83.3%)

06/06/11 stopped out @ 53.00, option @ -83.3%
06/04/11 new stop loss @ 53.00 (under the 200-dma).

Chart of SMG:

Current Target(s): $65.00-70.00
Current Stop loss: 53.00
Play Entered on: 03/25/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/05/11