Closed Plays


DIS has been stopped out


Play Updates


Boeing Co. - BA - close: 74.16

06/18 update: The battle of diverging trends continues in BA. The down trend that began in mid May continues but it's facing the long-term up trend on BA's weekly chart. The stock has been struggling with short-term resistance near $75.00 and I would not be surprised to see a dip toward support near $70.00 and its simple 200-dma. We could wait for a dip or a bounce near $70 before considering new long-term call positions. However, if BA does dip to $70.00 it will look like a bearish breakdown of the long-term up trend (see chart).

FYI: We only have small positions open to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Apr 27, 2011 - entry price on BA @ 76.50, option @ 4.50
symbol: BA1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 3.45/ 3.85

Apr 27, 2011 - entry price on BA @ 76.50, option @ 4.95
symbol: BA1319A90 2013 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 3.80/ 4.05

06/04/11 re-evaluated our risk and moved the stop loss to $69.75 under the simple 200-dma
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 73.90
04/27/11 Play opened. Small positions.

Chart of BA:

Current Target: $89.00, and $104.00
Current Stop loss: 69.75
Play Entered on: 04/27/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/26/11


BE Aerospace Inc. - BEAV - close: 37.93

06/18 update: I would seriously consider an early exit now in our BEAV trade. The stock has been showing relative strength but the rally has stalled at its long-term overhead resistance (see chart below). We are down to our last four weeks before July options expire. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on BEAV @ 34.00, option @ 2.75
symbol: BEAV1116G35 2011 JUL $35 call - current bid/ask $ 3.20/ 4.00

06/18/11 Consider an early exit now (bid @ $3.20)
05/14/11 Sell at least half now. Bid @ $3.60 (+30.9)
05/14/11 Adjusted upside target to $42.50
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 34.75
04/30/11 New stop loss @ 33.95
04/09/11 New stop loss @ 32.95
04/02/11 New stop loss @ 31.95

Chart of BEAV:

Current Target: $42.50
Current Stop loss: 34.75
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/22/11


Bristol-Myers Squibb Company - BMY - close: 27.52

06/18 update: I cautioned readers to look for a dip to $27.00 and BMY almost got there on Thursday. The short-term trend is bearish with lower highs and lower lows. We can expect a dip toward the 100-dma near $27.00 or the 200-dma near $26.80. Wait for the dip or better yet a bounce from these levels before considering new bullish positions.

Our long-term target is $32.00. Investors might want to consider turning this trade into a calendar spread or vertical spread to maximize its potential.

- Suggested Positions -
Mar 14, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 26.14, option @ 1.13
symbol: BMY1221A27.5 2012 JAN $27.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.47/ 1.52

- or -

Mar 14, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 26.14, option @ 1.63
symbol: BMY1319A27.5 2013 JAN $27.50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.21/ 2.28

06/04/11 New stop loss @ 25.90

Current Target: $32.00
Current Stop loss: 24.95
Play Entered on: 03/14/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 03/12/11


CACI International - CACI - close: 61.77

06/18 update: CACI displayed some relative strength last week with a rally past nearly all of its short-term moving averages, including the 50-dma. The stock got a boost on Friday thanks to an analyst upgrade to a "buy". The rebound is encouraging but I would not launch new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to inch up their stop closer to technical support at the 100-dma.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a more aggressive trade and if we keep our position size small we can limit our risk. Our first upside target is $69.00. CACI doesn't have LEAPS so we'll have to use the 2011 September calls.

- Current (small) Positions -
Apr 4, 2011 - entry price on CACI @ 62.04, option @ 3.30
symbol: CACI1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 1.75/ 1.95

- 2nd Position -

May 31, 2011 - entry price on CACI @ 63.14, option @ 2.65*
symbol: CACI1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 1.75/ 1.95

06/04/11 Adjustment - new stop @ 58.75
*5/31/11 estimate on the entry point of our 2nd position
05/28/11 New stop loss @ 59.25.
05/28/11 New entry point on the bounce. 2nd position above.
05/07/11 New stop loss @ 57.75

Current Target: $69.00
Current Stop loss: 58.75
Play Entered on: 04/04/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/12/11


Canadian Natl. Railway Co. - CNI - close: 75.44

06/18 update: Railroad stocks have continued to trend lower with a pattern of lower lows and lower highs but the DJUSRR railroad index did manage another bounce from its simple 100-dma. Meanwhile CNI is trying to bounce from short-term support near $74.00 and its 100-dma. Right now the bounce does not look very convincing and CNI still has a short-term trend of lower highs. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on CNI @ 72.39, option @ 2.90
symbol: CNI1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 3.20/ 3.40

05/21/11 new stop loss @ 71.75
05/05/11 new entry point @ 75.00
04/02/11 New stop loss @ 69.00

Current Target: $89.00
Current Stop loss: 71.75
Play Entered on: 02/28/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/26/11


Coach Inc. - COH - close: 59.31

06/18 update: COH managed to eke out a minor gain for the week. Shares almost hit our stop loss at $57.40 on Thursday but COH bounced at $57.61. Unfortunately the bounce has stalled near short-term resistance at $60.00 and its 20 and 30-dma. More aggressive traders may want to raise their risk a little bit and widen their stop loss to give COH more room to move. I am concerned that a real breakdown under $58.00 will lead to a drop toward the 200-dma closer to $53.00. We'll keep our stop loss at $57.40 for now but I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Given the market's down turn readers may want to consider an early exit to minimize any losses. The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Jun 03, 2011 - entry price on COH @ 61.00, option @ 4.40
symbol: COH1221A65 2012 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $ 3.60/ 3.80

- or -

Jun 03, 2011 - entry price on COH @ 61.00, option @ 6.80
symbol: COH1319A70 2013 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 5.60/ 6.00

06/18/11 COH looks weak. Readers may want to consider an early exit.

Current Target: $75.00
Current Stop loss: 57.40
Play Entered on: 06/03/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/28/11


Costco Wholesale - COST - close: 79.63

06/18 update: COST has extended its bounce to two weeks in a row. Shares seem to breakout from their sideways consolidation on Friday but I couldn't find any specific news behind the move. It wasn't surprising to see the rally stall and have COST close near the $80 strike price for June option expiration. The long-term trend is still up but I'm not convinced the correction is necessarily over so I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on COST @ 76.37, option @ 3.80
symbol:COST1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 5.25/ 5.40

- or -

Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on COST @ 76.37, option @ 5.05
symbol:COST1319A85 2013 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $ 6.45/ 6.90

06/04/11 Adjusting our stop to $74.75
05/21/11 Take Profits - Sell Half now! COST @ 83.40.
2012 $80 call @ $7.55 (+98.6%), 2013 $85 call @ $8.30 (+64.3%)
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 75.75
04/30/11 New stop loss @ 73.40

Current Target: $89.50, 99.00
Current Stop loss: 74.75
Play Entered on: 04/07/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11


Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. - DPS - close: 40.54

06/18 update: DPS posted a gain for the week but shares didn't see that much follow through on its bounce from support near the 50-dma. After consolidating sideways the last few days and the failed rally in Friday morning DPS looks ready to retest the $40.00 level and its 50-dma again. I would wait for another bounce from $40 before considering new positions. If shares breakdown under $40 then it could be a quick drop toward the next level of support near $38.00. Currently our exit target is $46.00. DPS does not have LEAPS so we'll have to use the November 2011 calls.

- Current Positions -
May 11, 2011 - entry price on DPS @ 40.55, option @ 2.85
symbol: DPS1119K40 2011 NOV $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.75/ 3.20

- or -

May 11, 2011 - entry price on DPS @ 40.55, option @ 1.00
symbol: DPS1119K45 2011 NOV $45 call - current bid/ask $ 0.85/ 1.05

Current Target: $46.00
Current Stop loss: 37.95
Play Entered on: 05/11/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/07/11


Fiserv, Inc. - FISV - close: 61.19

06/18 update: Warning! FISV has broken under support near $62.00 and its 100-dma. This was also the neckline to a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern that is now forecasting a drop toward $59.00. Coincidentally the $59 level should have support thanks to the rising 200-dma. The recent weakness would also suggest that the peak in early June is the second half to a bearish double top pattern. More conservative traders may want to abandon ship right now. I am expecting a dip toward $60.00 and most likely the 200-dma near $59.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 14, 2011 - entry price on FISV @ 62.30, option @ 3.20
symbol: FISV1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 1.05/ 1.02

06/04/11 new stop loss @ 58.45

Current Target: $74.75
Current Stop loss: 58.45
Play Entered on: 02/14/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/12/11


Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 21.19

06/18 update: Semiconductor stocks have continued to underperform. This past week saw the SOX index breakdown under what should have been support at the 400 level. Meanwhile shares of INTC have continued to slowly drift lower toward what should be support near $21.00 and the 200-dma. We have been expecting this dip toward the 200-dma and while we can use this pull back as an entry point I'd rather wait. There seems to be no slow down in the sell-off in the SOX. Let's wait and see if INTC actually bounces at $21.00 and more conservative traders may want to wait for INTC to close back above $22.00 before considering new bullish positions. Our long-term (multi-month targets) is the $26-28 zone.

- Current Positions -
Jun 01, 2011 - entry price on INTC @ 22.00, option @ 1.41
symbol: INTC1221A22.5 2012 JAN $22.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.07/ 1.12

- or -

Jun 01, 2011 - entry price on INTC @ 22.00, option @ 2.38
symbol: INTC1319A22.5 2013 JAN $22.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.99/ 2.05

Current Target: $26.00-28.00 zone
Current Stop loss: 20.45
Play Entered on: 06/01/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/07/11


Monsanto Co. - MON - close: 65.85

06/18 update: More than one third of U.S. corn is produced to make ethanol and the senate's recent vote to end incentives for ethanol production is bad news for many farmers and agriculture companies since the lack of ethanol subsidies is expected to reduce demand for corn. Shares of MON have been sinking the last few days as this story plays out. Shares are back under their 50-dma and under their exponential 200-dma and the stock is moving quickly toward the next level of support near $65.00 and its simple 200-dma. I am concerned since MON never broke the four-month bearish trend of lower highs and lower lows!

More conservative traders may want to arise their stop loss close to the $65 level or even sell part or all of your positions to minimize your exposure. If the broader market continues to sink I would expect MON to break $65 and drop toward its May lows near $62.30.

Furthermore MON is due to report earnings on June 29th. Cautious traders may want to abandon ship prior to the earnings report since we don't know how the end of ethanol incentives might impact MON's future revenues. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Prior Comments:
Our plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk since MON can be so volatile at times. Our long-term targets are the $85-90 zone.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Mar 15, 2011 - entry price on MON @ 65.50, option @ 6.75
symbol: MON1221A70 2012 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 4.70/ 4.80

- or -

Mar 15, 2011 - entry price on MON @ 65.50, option @ 8.75
symbol: MON1319A75 2013 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 6.65/ 6.90

06/18/11 Get defensive. Consider raising your stop loss or reducing your position size. Decide if you're willing to hold over the earnings report or if you'll exit early prior to the announcement.
04/09/11 New stop loss @ 61.75, Readers may want to exit early now.

Current Target(s): $85.00
Current Stop loss: 61.75
Play Entered on: 03/15/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/08/11


Southwestern Energy Co. - SWN - close: 41.16

06/18 update: Hmm... energy stocks have delivered a mixed performance the last few days. Last Monday saw SWN breakdown under support near $42 and its 50-dma. This was followed by four days of consolidating sideways. The stock looks vulnerable to more selling pressure, which means we will probably see a drop toward the $40.00 level. Currently our stop loss is at $39.45 and if the broader market indices accelerate lower there is a growing chance we'll get stopped out. It will be interesting to see how oil prices move following the FOMC's comments and Bernanke's press conference on Wednesday. Many are expecting the Fed to downgrade their growth estimates, which would mean less demand for oil and thus lower oil prices at least in theory.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier comments:
We wanted to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on SWN @ 40.50, option @ 2.90
SWN1221A45 2012 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 2.76/ 2.84

- or -

Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on SWN @ 40.50, option @ 5.85
SWN1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 5.65/ 5.85

05/28/11 new stop loss @ 39.45
05/07/11 New stop loss @ 37.75

Current Target(s): $50.00-52.50
Current Stop loss: 39.45
Play Entered on: 04/07/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/02/11


Union Pacific Corp. - UNP - close: 100.01

06/18 update: Railroad stocks have a two-week bearish trend of lower highs and lower lows. UNP managed a bounce off its 100-dma but shares stalled near the $100.00 level to close on this option strike price for June expiration. The long-term trend for UNP is still up but momentum has stalled completely. Some of the technical indicators on the weekly chart have turned bearish. If the stock market's major averages continue to sink there is a good chance we'll get stopped out at $97.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
May 5, 2011 - entry price on UNP @ 100.15, option @ 5.00
UNP1221A110 2012 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $ 4.00/ 4.15

- or -

May 5, 2011 - entry price on UNP @ 100.15, option @ 6.00
UNP1319A120 2013 JAN $120 call - current bid/ask $ 5.40/ 5.80

05/28/11 New stop loss @ 97.00

Current Target(s): $119.75-134.00
Current Stop loss: 97.00
Play Entered on: 05/05/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/30/11


Zimmer Holdings, Inc. - ZMH - close: 62.05

06/18 update: The correction in ZMH continues and shares have broken down under technical support at the 100-dma. I had cautioned readers that ZMH might see a drop toward the $60.00 level. I would wait for that drop or better yet a bounce near $60.00 before considering new long-term call positions.

Earlier comments:
Healthcare stocks had been one of the market's strongest sectors. When this market correction is over I expect healthcare to remain popular with investors. I like ZMH since an aging baby boomer population is going to see rising demand for ZMH's replacement joints and implants. In the meantime readers may want to hesitate on launching new positions. We might get a better entry point near $60 if we're patient. Our long-term targets are $78.50 and $88.50, although the high $80s might be a little optimistic.

- Current Positions -
Jun 10, 2011 - entry price on ZMH @ 63.00, option @ 4.00
ZMH1221A65 2012 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $ 3.40/ 3.60

- or -

Jun 10, 2011 - entry price on ZMH @ 63.00, option @ 5.50
ZMH1319A70 2013 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 4.60/ 5.00

Current Target(s): $78.50 & 88.50
Current Stop loss: 58.90
Play Entered on: 06/10/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/30/11


CLOSED Plays


Walt Disney Co. - DIS - close: 38.04

06/18 update: A couple of months ago DIS was one of our best performers. That changed following the earnings report in May when DIS missed estimates. Since then DIS has broken down through several layers of support. This past week the sell-off continued and DIS hit our stop loss at $37.85 closing this trade.

- Current Positions -
Oct 27, 2010 - entry price on DIS @ 35.60, option @ 2.23
symbol: DIS1221A40 2012 JAN $40 call - exit @ $2.00 (-10.3%)

- or -

Oct 27, 2010 - entry price on DIS @ 35.60, option @ 3.63
symbol: DIS1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - exit @ $4.00 (+10.1%)

06/16/11 Stopped out @ 37.85. Options @ -10.3% & +10.1%
06/04/11 DIS is breaking key support. consider an early exit now.
02/12/11 New stop loss @ 37.85
02/09/11 1st Target Hit. Options @ +137% and +103%
02/05/11 New stop loss @ 35.75
01/08/11 New stop loss @ 34.95
01/08/11 Target changed to $43.00 and $46.00
10/27/10 Play opened, DIS opened @ $35.60

Chart of DIS:

Current Target(s): $43.00, 49.00
Current Stop loss: 37.85
Play Entered on: 10/27/10
Originally listed on the Watch List 10/24/10