Closed Plays


None. No closed plays this week.


Play Updates


Boeing Co. - BA - close: 71.26

06/25 update: I have been warning readers to expect a drop toward $70 in BA. The stock fell to $70.29 and hit its simple 200-dma on Thursday. BA really accelerated lower on Wednesday following news from the Paris air show. It seems that BA's main rival, Airbus, is gaining significantly more business. Maybe customers are tired of all the delays at BA. This pull back toward $70.00 in BA is a pivotal turning point. This is important support bolstered by the 200-dma. A breakdown here would also be a breakdown of BA's long-term up trend (see weekly chart). Actually if you look at the chart below BA seems to have already broken the long-term up trend.

Traders could certainly buy this dip to support but with the market's major indices looking weak I would probably wait. Let's wait for a bounce from these level. Cautious traders could wait for a new close over $75.00 or its 50-dma before considering new positions.

FYI: We only have small positions open to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Apr 27, 2011 - entry price on BA @ 76.50, option @ 4.50
symbol: BA1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 2.60/ 2.67

Apr 27, 2011 - entry price on BA @ 76.50, option @ 4.95
symbol: BA1319A90 2013 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 3.00/ 3.20

06/25/11 BA dips toward support near $70 and 200-dma as expected.
06/04/11 re-evaluated our risk and moved the stop loss to $69.75 under the simple 200-dma
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 73.90
04/27/11 Play opened. Small positions.

Chart of BA:

Current Target: $89.00, and $104.00
Current Stop loss: 69.75
Play Entered on: 04/27/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/26/11


BE Aerospace Inc. - BEAV - close: 38.93

06/25 update: BEAV is still holding up relatively well and the stock actually looks poised to move higher. There is some resistance in the $40.00-40.50 area and given our time frame I am adjusting our exit target down to $39.90. We only have three weeks left before July options expire. More conservative traders will want to exit now to lock in a profit. The newsletter will plan on exiting this positions next Friday (July 1st) at the closing bell assuming shares don't hit our exit at $39.90 first. We will raise our stop loss up to $36.75. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on BEAV @ 34.00, option @ 2.75
symbol: BEAV1116G35 2011 JUL $35 call - current bid/ask $ 4.00/ 4.20

06/25/11 new stop loss @ 36.75, Plan on exiting July 1st
06/25/11 adjusted exit target to $39.90
06/18/11 Consider an early exit now (bid @ $3.20)
05/14/11 Sell at least half now. Bid @ $3.60 (+30.9)
05/14/11 Adjusted upside target to $42.50
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 34.75
04/30/11 New stop loss @ 33.95
04/09/11 New stop loss @ 32.95
04/02/11 New stop loss @ 31.95

Current Target: $39.90
Current Stop loss: 36.75
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/22/11


Bristol-Myers Squibb Company - BMY - close: 28.93

06/25 update: It was a bullish week for BMY with the stock surging to new multi-year highs. Late Wednesday there was positive news on a Phase III drug trial for Eliquis, a blood thinner created by both BMY and rival Pfizer (PFE). The positive news garnered BMY's stock an upgrade. The following session BMY gapped open higher and rallied to $29.50. Shares have started to see some profit taking and the close under $29.00 is a little disappointing since prior resistance could have been support. Odds are BMY will eventually fill the gap and that means a drop toward $28.25. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. We will raise our stop loss to $26.95.

Our long-term target is $32.00. Investors might want to consider turning this trade into a calendar spread or vertical spread to maximize its potential.

- Suggested Positions -
Mar 14, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 26.14, option @ 1.13
symbol: BMY1221A27.5 2012 JAN $27.50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.23/ 2.28

- or -

Mar 14, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 26.14, option @ 1.63
symbol: BMY1319A27.5 2013 JAN $27.50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.87/ 2.95

06/25/11 New stop loss @ 26.95
06/04/11 New stop loss @ 25.90

Current Target: $32.00
Current Stop loss: 26.95
Play Entered on: 03/14/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 03/12/11


CACI International - CACI - close: 63.74

06/25 update: CACI continues to show strength. The stock hit new four-year highs on Tuesday. Traders bought the dip near short-term support at $62.00 midweek. CACI actually looks ready to breakout to new relative highs again. I remain cautious given the stock market's downward slope but the action in CACI is bullish. You could launch positions here and just use a tight stop. Speaking of stops I am raising our stop to $59.75, which is under technical support at the 100-dma.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a more aggressive trade and if we keep our position size small we can limit our risk. Our first upside target is $69.00. CACI doesn't have LEAPS so we'll have to use the 2011 September calls.

- Current (small) Positions -
Apr 4, 2011 - entry price on CACI @ 62.04, option @ 3.30
symbol: CACI1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 2.40/ 2.65

- 2nd Position -

May 31, 2011 - entry price on CACI @ 63.14, option @ 2.65*
symbol: CACI1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 2.40/ 2.65

06/25/11 new stop loss @ 59.75
06/04/11 Adjustment - new stop @ 58.75
*5/31/11 estimate on the entry point of our 2nd position
05/28/11 New stop loss @ 59.25.
05/28/11 New entry point on the bounce. 2nd position above.
05/07/11 New stop loss @ 57.75

Current Target: $69.00
Current Stop loss: 59.75
Play Entered on: 04/04/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/12/11


Canadian Natl. Railway Co. - CNI - close: 75.29

06/25 update: Uh-oh! The action last week turned bearish. The early week rally past $77 reversed and now it looks like a lower high or even the right shoulder to a bearish head and shoulders pattern. Meanwhile the long-term trend is still up. However, CNI looks poised to drop toward support near $74.00 and its 100-dma. This $74 area is key support. That's where CNI's long-term trendline of higher lows (see chart below) will cross. I am raising our stop loss to $72.75. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop even higher toward $74. Nimble traders could get ready to buy another bounce from $74.00 but I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on CNI @ 72.39, option @ 2.90
symbol: CNI1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 3.10/ 3.40

06/25/11 new stop loss @ 72.75
05/21/11 new stop loss @ 71.75
05/05/11 new entry point @ 75.00
04/02/11 New stop loss @ 69.00

Chart of CNI:

Current Target: $89.00
Current Stop loss: 72.75
Play Entered on: 02/28/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/26/11


Coach Inc. - COH - close: 58.66

06/25 update: The RLX retail sector index is up two weeks in a row but it's struggling with resistance near the 520 level and its 100-dma. There are growing concerns about an economic slow down in the U.S. If investors really start to think we will see a double dip recession then retail names may not fare very well. I am very concerned with COH. The action this past week is essentially a failed rally move and what appears to be the right shoulder to a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. The supporting neckline is near $58.00. A close under $58.00 would suggest a drop toward $52.00 although technical support near the 200-dma might halt the sell-off. We already have a stop loss at $57.40 so there isn't much room to raise it. More conservative traders may want to exit immediately to cut their losses, especially with Friday's close under technical support at the 50-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Jun 03, 2011 - entry price on COH @ 61.00, option @ 4.40
symbol: COH1221A65 2012 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $ 3.10/ 3.30

- or -

Jun 03, 2011 - entry price on COH @ 61.00, option @ 6.80
symbol: COH1319A70 2013 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 5.20/ 5.50

06/25/11 COH appears to be forming an H&S pattern. Consider an early exit now.
06/18/11 COH looks weak. Readers may want to consider an early exit.

Current Target: $75.00
Current Stop loss: 57.40
Play Entered on: 06/03/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/28/11


Costco Wholesale - COST - close: 79.13

06/25 update: I am urging caution on our COST trade. The rally early last week has failed. Shares broke down back below the $80 level and its 50-dma. I would expect a decline toward technical support at the 100-dma or possibly the $75.00 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on COST @ 76.37, option @ 3.80
symbol:COST1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 4.90/ 5.00

- or -

Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on COST @ 76.37, option @ 5.05
symbol:COST1319A85 2013 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $ 6.15/ 6.40

06/25/11 expecting a dip toward the 100-dma
06/04/11 Adjusting our stop to $74.75
05/21/11 Take Profits - Sell Half now! COST @ 83.40.
2012 $80 call @ $7.55 (+98.6%), 2013 $85 call @ $8.30 (+64.3%)
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 75.75
04/30/11 New stop loss @ 73.40

Current Target: $89.50, 99.00
Current Stop loss: 74.75
Play Entered on: 04/07/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11


Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. - DPS - close: 39.89

06/25 update: Warning! DPS is correcting lower. Shares broke down under technical support at the 50-dma and under price support at the $40.00 level. Cautious traders may want to raise their stops near the $39.50 level to really limit your risk. Friday's move looks like a failed rally bounce at the 50-dma and I would expect a dip toward the 100-dma near $38.50 or a drop toward prior resistance and what should be new support near $38.00. No new positions at this time.

FYI: DPS does not have LEAPS so we are using the November 2011 calls.

- Current Positions -
May 11, 2011 - entry price on DPS @ 40.55, option @ 2.85
symbol: DPS1119K40 2011 NOV $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.25/ 2.50

- or -

May 11, 2011 - entry price on DPS @ 40.55, option @ 1.00
symbol: DPS1119K45 2011 NOV $45 call - current bid/ask $ 0.65/ 0.85

06/25/11 DPS looks poised to correct toward the $38 level.

Chart of DPS:

Current Target: $46.00
Current Stop loss: 37.95
Play Entered on: 05/11/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/07/11


Fiserv, Inc. - FISV - close: 60.71

06/25 update: There is no change from my prior comments. I am still suggesting that cautious traders exit early right now. FISV looks poised to drop toward support near $60 or technical support at the 200-dma (currently 59.50). If FISV breaks down past the 200-dma then the next level of support is $58.00. Aggressive traders could place their stop under the $58.00 level. I am raising our stop loss to $58.95. The peaks in April and June looks like a bearish double top for FISV. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 14, 2011 - entry price on FISV @ 62.30, option @ 3.20
symbol: FISV1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 0.70/ 0.90

06/25/11 new stop loss @ 58.95
06/04/11 new stop loss @ 58.45

Current Target: $74.75
Current Stop loss: 58.95
Play Entered on: 02/14/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/12/11


Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 21.20

06/25 update: After a very sharp correction lower in the first part of June the SOX semiconductor index is trying to bounce. Unfortunately Intel isn't helping very much. The stock did rebound from support near $21.00 and its 200-dma again. Yet shares closed almost unchanged for the week. Traders could certainly use this bounce from support as a new entry point but given the market's recent choppiness I'd rather wait. Readers could wait for a new close over $22.00 or the 50-dma as their next entry point.

Cautious traders might want to raise their stops closer to the $21.00 level. FYI: INTC is due to report earnings on July 20th.

- Current Positions -
Jun 01, 2011 - entry price on INTC @ 22.00, option @ 1.41
symbol: INTC1221A22.5 2012 JAN $22.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.00/ 1.05

- or -

Jun 01, 2011 - entry price on INTC @ 22.00, option @ 2.38
symbol: INTC1319A22.5 2013 JAN $22.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.91/ 1.99

Current Target: $26.00-28.00 zone
Current Stop loss: 20.45
Play Entered on: 06/01/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/07/11


Monsanto Co. - MON - close: 65.96

06/25 update: We only have two days left before MON reports earnings. The company is due to announce on June 29th before the opening bell. Analysts are expecting a profit of $1.11. I am still suggesting that more conservative traders consider an early exit ahead of the earnings announcement. That means exiting Tuesday before the close. We do not know how the end of ethanol subsidies recently passed by congress will impact MON's business or what management will say as they offer guidance.

Overall the stock dipped toward support near $65 just as expected. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Prior Comments:
Our plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk since MON can be so volatile at times. Our long-term targets are the $85-90 zone.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Mar 15, 2011 - entry price on MON @ 65.50, option @ 6.75
symbol: MON1221A70 2012 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 4.35/ 4.45

- or -

Mar 15, 2011 - entry price on MON @ 65.50, option @ 8.75
symbol: MON1319A75 2013 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 6.40/ 6.65

06/25/11 Earnings are June 29th. Consider exiting ahead of the announcement.
06/18/11 Get defensive. Consider raising your stop loss or reducing your position size. Decide if you're willing to hold over the earnings report or if you'll exit early prior to the announcement.
04/09/11 New stop loss @ 61.75, Readers may want to exit early now.

Current Target(s): $85.00
Current Stop loss: 61.75
Play Entered on: 03/15/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/08/11


Southwestern Energy Co. - SWN - close: 40.84

06/25 update: Energy stocks have been struggling. SWN fared better than many of its peers but the action this past week looks like a new lower high. Shares of SWN are currently testing technical support at the 100-dma. The stock should have additional support at the $40.00 level. Unfortunately the oil index looks poised to breakdown even further. If that happens we could see SWN break down below $40 and hit our stop loss at $39.45. More conservative traders may want to abandon ship and exit this trade now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier comments:
We wanted to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on SWN @ 40.50, option @ 2.90
SWN1221A45 2012 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 2.36/ 2.42

- or -

Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on SWN @ 40.50, option @ 5.85
SWN1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 5.20/ 5.50

06/25/11 SWN looks poised to drop toward support near $40.00.
05/28/11 new stop loss @ 39.45
05/07/11 New stop loss @ 37.75

Current Target(s): $50.00-52.50
Current Stop loss: 39.45
Play Entered on: 04/07/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/02/11


Union Pacific Corp. - UNP - close: 100.04

06/25 update: UNP eked out a three-cent gain for the week. Unfortunately the action last week looks bearish with a failed rally and a new lower high. UNP looks poised to drop toward technical support at the 100-dma (currently 98.38). If UNP breaks down under the 100-dma it will likely hit our stop pretty quickly at $97.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
May 5, 2011 - entry price on UNP @ 100.15, option @ 5.00
UNP1221A110 2012 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $ 3.75/ 3.85

- or -

May 5, 2011 - entry price on UNP @ 100.15, option @ 6.00
UNP1319A120 2013 JAN $120 call - current bid/ask $ 5.50/ 5.80

05/28/11 New stop loss @ 97.00

Current Target(s): $119.75-134.00
Current Stop loss: 97.00
Play Entered on: 05/05/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/30/11


Zimmer Holdings, Inc. - ZMH - close: 61.50

06/25 update: ZMH is down four weeks in a row and down five out of the last six weeks. I have been warning readers that ZMH might dip toward support near $60.00. It certainly looks like that is where ZMH is headed. I would prefer to see the stock bounce from $60.00 before considering new bullish positions.

Earlier comments:
Healthcare stocks had been one of the market's strongest sectors. When this market correction is over I expect healthcare to remain popular with investors. I like ZMH since an aging baby boomer population is going to see rising demand for ZMH's replacement joints and implants.

- Current Positions -
Jun 10, 2011 - entry price on ZMH @ 63.00, option @ 4.00
ZMH1221A65 2012 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $ 3.30/ 3.60

- or -

Jun 10, 2011 - entry price on ZMH @ 63.00, option @ 5.50
ZMH1319A70 2013 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 4.50/ 5.00

06/25/11 We are still expecting a dip toward $60.00. Wait for a bounce from this level before considering new positions.

Current Target(s): $78.50 & 88.50
Current Stop loss: 58.90
Play Entered on: 06/10/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/30/11