Closed Plays


BEAV hit our exit target.


Play Updates


Boeing Co. - BA - close: 74.27

07/02 update: BA delivered five gains in a row producing a $3.00 gain on the week. Shares seemed to stall on Friday under resistance at the $75.00 level. While the big bounce is encouraging BA has not yet broken the two-month bearish trend of lower highs. Past the $75.00 level there is additional resistance at the 50-dma near $76.00. Now with the stock market's major averages short-term overbought and due for a dip I would not launch new positions at this time.

FYI: We only have small positions open to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Apr 27, 2011 - entry price on BA @ 76.50, option @ 4.50
symbol: BA1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 2.98/ 3.05

Apr 27, 2011 - entry price on BA @ 76.50, option @ 4.95
symbol: BA1319A90 2013 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 3.25/ 3.40

06/25/11 BA dips toward support near $70 and 200-dma as expected.
06/04/11 re-evaluated our risk and moved the stop loss to $69.75 under the simple 200-dma
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 73.90
04/27/11 Play opened. Small positions.

Current Target: $89.00, and $104.00
Current Stop loss: 69.75
Play Entered on: 04/27/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/26/11


Bristol-Myers Squibb Company - BMY - close: 29.15

07/02 update: Instead of filling the gap shares of BMY bounced early when they hit their rising 50-dma. Now shares are back above prior resistance at $29.00. The trend is up but I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Our long-term target is $32.00. Investors might want to consider turning this trade into a calendar spread or vertical spread to maximize its potential.

- Suggested Positions -
Mar 14, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 26.14, option @ 1.13
symbol: BMY1221A27.5 2012 JAN $27.50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.47/ 2.51

- or -

Mar 14, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 26.14, option @ 1.63
symbol: BMY1319A27.5 2013 JAN $27.50 call - current bid/ask $ 3.10/ 3.20

06/25/11 New stop loss @ 26.95
06/04/11 New stop loss @ 25.90

Current Target: $32.00
Current Stop loss: 26.95
Play Entered on: 03/14/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 03/12/11


CACI International - CACI - close: 64.94

07/02 update: CACI did not see quite the same surge the stock market did but it was still a bullish week. The company raised their earnings guidance on June 29th. Shares really didn't move until Friday, where the stock rallied +2.9% and broke out past resistance to close at new relative highs. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a more aggressive trade and if we keep our position size small we can limit our risk. Our first upside target is $69.00. CACI doesn't have LEAPS so we'll have to use the 2011 September calls.

- Current (small) Positions -
Apr 4, 2011 - entry price on CACI @ 62.04, option @ 3.30
symbol: CACI1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 2.90/ 3.10

- 2nd Position -

May 31, 2011 - entry price on CACI @ 63.14, option @ 2.65*
symbol: CACI1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 2.90/ 3.10

06/25/11 new stop loss @ 59.75
06/04/11 Adjustment - new stop @ 58.75
*5/31/11 estimate on the entry point of our 2nd position
05/28/11 New stop loss @ 59.25.
05/28/11 New entry point on the bounce. 2nd position above.
05/07/11 New stop loss @ 57.75

Current Target: $69.00
Current Stop loss: 59.75
Play Entered on: 04/04/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/12/11


Canadian Natl. Railway Co. - CNI - close: 81.05

07/02 update: It was a very bullish week for the railroad stocks. Many of them like CNI, NSC, and UNP all broke out from their sideways consolidation and rallied to new highs. Shares of CNI soared from $75 to $81 and closed at all-time highs. I am not suggesting new positions now. Nimble traders may want to consider buying calls on a dip near $78.00 with a stop near $75.00. Speaking of stops I am raising our stop from $72.75 to $74.90. Our target is $89.00.

- Current Positions -
Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on CNI @ 72.39, option @ 2.90
symbol: CNI1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 5.40/ 5.70

07/02/11 new stop loss @ 74.90
06/25/11 new stop loss @ 72.75
05/21/11 new stop loss @ 71.75
05/05/11 new entry point @ 75.00
04/02/11 New stop loss @ 69.00

Current Target: $89.00
Current Stop loss: 74.90
Play Entered on: 02/28/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/26/11


Coach Inc. - COH - close: 65.99

07/02 update: Wow! What a difference a week can make. A week ago it looked like COH was going to breakdown from a bearish H&S pattern. Instead COH proved to be a big outperformer last week. Actually almost anything related to consumers did well during the market's sharp rebound. COH surged more than seven points and closed at new all-time highs. The stock is now short-term overbought and we should expect some profit taking. The $64 and $62 levels should offer some short-term support.

If you're looking for a new entry point I'd prefer to buy a new bounce from the $62.00 area but there's no guarantee we'll see one. The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Jun 03, 2011 - entry price on COH @ 61.00, option @ 4.40
symbol: COH1221A65 2012 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $ 6.30/ 6.50

- or -

Jun 03, 2011 - entry price on COH @ 61.00, option @ 6.80
symbol: COH1319A70 2013 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 8.10/ 8.50

07/02/11 Look for some profit taking after the big rally
06/25/11 COH appears to be forming an H&S pattern. Consider an early exit now.
06/18/11 COH looks weak. Readers may want to consider an early exit.

Current Target: $75.00
Current Stop loss: 57.40
Play Entered on: 06/03/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/28/11


Costco Wholesale - COST - close: 81.54

07/02 update: Gains in COST last week were pretty timid compared to the market's but the stock did post a gain. My concern today is that the stock market is short-term overbought and due for a dip. How will COST react to a market pull back? The stock should have some support in the $79-77 area with additional support near $75. Nimble traders might want to consider buying a bounce from the rising 100-dma if we happen to see one. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Current Positions -
Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on COST @ 76.37, option @ 3.80
symbol:COST1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 5.50/ 5.60

- or -

Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on COST @ 76.37, option @ 5.05
symbol:COST1319A85 2013 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $ 6.75/ 6.90

06/25/11 expecting a dip toward the 100-dma
06/04/11 Adjusting our stop to $74.75
05/21/11 Take Profits - Sell Half now! COST @ 83.40.
2012 $80 call @ $7.55 (+98.6%), 2013 $85 call @ $8.30 (+64.3%)
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 75.75
04/30/11 New stop loss @ 73.40

Current Target: $89.50, 99.00
Current Stop loss: 74.75
Play Entered on: 04/07/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11


Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. - DPS - close: 42.15

07/02 update: The big rally in DPS this past week just erased the prior four weeks of declines and congestion. The stock is now testing resistance at its mid May highs near $42. I would not be surprised to see a dip back toward the $41 area, which should be short-term support. Please note that I am raising our stop loss to $39.40. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. FYI: DPS does not have LEAPS so we are using the November 2011 calls.

- Current Positions -
May 11, 2011 - entry price on DPS @ 40.55, option @ 2.85
symbol: DPS1119K40 2011 NOV $40 call - current bid/ask $ 3.40/ 4.10

- or -

May 11, 2011 - entry price on DPS @ 40.55, option @ 1.00
symbol: DPS1119K45 2011 NOV $45 call - current bid/ask $ 1.05/ 1.45

07/02/11 new stop loss @ 39.40
06/25/11 DPS looks poised to correct toward the $38 level.

Current Target: $46.00
Current Stop loss: 39.40
Play Entered on: 05/11/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/07/11


Fiserv, Inc. - FISV - close: 63.75

07/02 update: FISV participated with the market's rebound with five gains in a row. Shares managed to rally past resistance at its 100-dma and then its 50-dma. Yet the stock remains inside its sideways trading range and FISV still has resistance in the $64.50 area. While last week was improvement I am still not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 14, 2011 - entry price on FISV @ 62.30, option @ 3.20
symbol: FISV1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 1.50/ 1.65

06/25/11 new stop loss @ 58.95
06/04/11 new stop loss @ 58.45

Current Target: $74.75
Current Stop loss: 58.95
Play Entered on: 02/14/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/12/11


Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 22.53

07/02 update: Semiconductors were strong performers last week and the SOX index managed to rally past resistance at 410 and both its simple and exponential 200-dma. This is very encouraging but the SOX stalled at resistance near 420 and the index still has a bearish trend of lower highs to overcome.

Meanwhile Intel got a late start to the rally last week but made up for it with big gains on Thursday and Friday. INTC's rally back above resistance at $22.00 is a big improvement. I would be tempted to launch new long-term LEAPS positions on a dip back into the $22.00-21.75 area.

Cautious traders might want to raise their stops closer to the $21.00 level. FYI: INTC is due to report earnings on July 20th.

- Current Positions -
Jun 01, 2011 - entry price on INTC @ 22.00, option @ 1.41
symbol: INTC1221A22.5 2012 JAN $22.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.48/ 1.51

- or -

Jun 01, 2011 - entry price on INTC @ 22.00, option @ 2.38
symbol: INTC1319A22.5 2013 JAN $22.50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.45/ 2.51

Current Target: $26.00-28.00 zone
Current Stop loss: 20.45
Play Entered on: 06/01/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/07/11


Monsanto Co. - MON - close: 72.65

07/02 update: MON reported earnings on June 29th. The safer trade would have been to exit prior to the report but the newsletter decided to hold over the report. We were lucky. The company beat Wall Street's estimates by 15 cents. Furthermore management raised their 2011 earnings guidance into the $2.84-2.88 range while analysts were only estimating $2.81. Investors chose to focus on the positive news instead of focusing on the negative news like MON's admission the SEC is looking into its customer incentive programs over the last couple of years. I repeat that we were lucky. The earnings news garnered some positive analyst comments.

In reaction to the earnings news MON managed to rally more than six points for the week. More importantly MON has broken the five-month trend of lower highs. Shares are short-term overbought so we should expect some profit taking soon. We all know how volatile MON can be. I would expect a dip to $70 and would not be surprised to see a dip to $68. Please note our new stop loss at $64.00.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time but might reconsider on a dip to one of these levels.

Prior Comments:
Our plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk since MON can be so volatile at times. Our long-term targets are the $85-90 zone.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Mar 15, 2011 - entry price on MON @ 65.50, option @ 6.75
symbol: MON1221A70 2012 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 7.15/ 7.30

- or -

Mar 15, 2011 - entry price on MON @ 65.50, option @ 8.75
symbol: MON1319A75 2013 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 9.10/ 9.30

07/02/11 new stop loss @ 64.00
06/25/11 Earnings are June 29th. Consider exiting ahead of the announcement.
06/18/11 Get defensive. Consider raising your stop loss or reducing your position size. Decide if you're willing to hold over the earnings report or if you'll exit early prior to the announcement.
04/09/11 New stop loss @ 61.75, Readers may want to exit early now.

Chart of MON:

Current Target(s): $85.00
Current Stop loss: 64.00
Play Entered on: 03/15/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/08/11


Southwestern Energy Co. - SWN - close: 43.80

07/02 update: I warned readers to expect a dip toward $40.00. Sure enough SWN broke support at its 100-dma and dipped to $40.04 on Monday. The stock reversed course and rallied the next four days in a row. The stock is now up almost +10% from its Monday low. SWN's rally has stalled at significant resistance near the $44 level. I would expect a pull back into the $42.50 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier comments:
We wanted to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on SWN @ 40.50, option @ 2.90
SWN1221A45 2012 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.35/ 3.45

- or -

Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on SWN @ 40.50, option @ 5.85
SWN1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 6.65/ 6.80

07/02/11 SWN has reversed higher and stalled at resistance near $44.
06/25/11 SWN looks poised to drop toward support near $40.00.
05/28/11 new stop loss @ 39.45
05/07/11 New stop loss @ 37.75

Current Target(s): $50.00-52.50
Current Stop loss: 39.45
Play Entered on: 04/07/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/02/11


Union Pacific Corp. - UNP - close: 106.76

07/02 update: It turned out to be a very bullish week for the transportation sector. Railroads helped drive these gains. Shares of UNP soared +6.7% and broke out past resistance at $105 to close at new all-time highs. I would not chase it here. If you are looking for a new entry point consider waiting for a bounce from the $104-103 area.

- Current Positions -
May 5, 2011 - entry price on UNP @ 100.15, option @ 5.00
UNP1221A110 2012 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $ 5.65/ 5.85

- or -

May 5, 2011 - entry price on UNP @ 100.15, option @ 6.00
UNP1319A120 2013 JAN $120 call - current bid/ask $ 7.25/ 7.50

05/28/11 New stop loss @ 97.00

Current Target(s): $119.75-134.00
Current Stop loss: 97.00
Play Entered on: 05/05/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/30/11


Zimmer Holdings, Inc. - ZMH - close: 65.09

07/02 update: ZMH produced a dramatic turnaround with a rally past resistance at its 100-dma and then at the $64 level. I would not chase the bounce. ZMH's rally stalled near resistance at $65 and its 50-dma. Let's wait and see if shares pull back and bounce again in the $64-63 area. Then we can re-evaluate a new entry point.

Earlier comments:
Healthcare stocks had been one of the market's strongest sectors. When this market correction is over I expect healthcare to remain popular with investors. I like ZMH since an aging baby boomer population is going to see rising demand for ZMH's replacement joints and implants.

- Current Positions -
Jun 10, 2011 - entry price on ZMH @ 63.00, option @ 4.00
ZMH1221A65 2012 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $ 4.70/ 4.90

- or -

Jun 10, 2011 - entry price on ZMH @ 63.00, option @ 5.50
ZMH1319A70 2013 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 5.60/ 6.10

06/25/11 We are still expecting a dip toward $60.00. Wait for a bounce from this level before considering new positions.

Current Target(s): $78.50 & 88.50
Current Stop loss: 58.90
Play Entered on: 06/10/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/30/11


CLOSED Plays


BE Aerospace Inc. - BEAV - close: 41.29

07/02 update: It turned out to be a very bullish week for BEAV. The stock managed to breakout past resistance at the $40.00 level and shares closed at new multi-year highs. Our exit target was hit at $39.90 on June 28th. The bid on our call was at $4.90 (+78.1%). Today that same 2011 July $35 call is bid at $6.10 and will expire in two weeks.

Readers may want to keep BEAV on their watch list. The trend remains bullish.

- Current Positions -
Feb 23, 2011 - entry price on BEAV @ 34.00, option @ 2.75
symbol: BEAV1116G35 2011 JUL $35 call - exit @ $4.90 (+78.1%)

06/28/11 Target hit @ 39.90, option +78.1%
06/25/11 new stop loss @ 36.75, Plan on exiting July 1st
06/25/11 adjusted exit target to $39.90
06/18/11 Consider an early exit now (bid @ $3.20)
05/14/11 Sell at least half now. Bid @ $3.60 (+30.9)
05/14/11 Adjusted upside target to $42.50
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 34.75
04/30/11 New stop loss @ 33.95
04/09/11 New stop loss @ 32.95
04/02/11 New stop loss @ 31.95

Chart of BEAV:

Current Target: $39.90
Current Stop loss: 36.75
Play Entered on: 02/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/22/11