Closed Plays


None. No closed plays this week.


Play Updates


Boeing Co. - BA - close: 75.07

07/09 update: BA had been showing some strength and by Thursday the stock had broken out above technical resistance at its 50-dma. Yet the market sell-off Friday morning thanks to the lousy jobs report knocked BA's gains to less than a dollar for the entire week. The short-term trend is up but BA has not yet convincingly broke the multi-week trend of lower highs. I remain cautiously optimistic but I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

FYI: We only have small positions open to limit our risk.

- Current Positions -
Apr 27, 2011 - entry price on BA @ 76.50, option @ 4.50
symbol: BA1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 2.82/ 2.88

Apr 27, 2011 - entry price on BA @ 76.50, option @ 4.95
symbol: BA1319A90 2013 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 3.40/ 3.55

06/25/11 BA dips toward support near $70 and 200-dma as expected.
06/04/11 re-evaluated our risk and moved the stop loss to $69.75 under the simple 200-dma
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 73.90
04/27/11 Play opened. Small positions.

Current Target: $89.00, and $104.00
Current Stop loss: 69.75
Play Entered on: 04/27/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/26/11


Bristol-Myers Squibb Company - BMY - close: 29.12

07/09 update: BMY has a similar story. Shares had been slowly drifting higher only to see its gains for the week erased by Friday's profit taking. The long-term trend is higher but BMY has spent more than two weeks struggling under the $29.50 area. Any significant market pull back could push BMY down toward support near $28.00 again. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Our long-term target is $32.00. Investors might want to consider turning this trade into a calendar spread or vertical spread to maximize its potential.

- Suggested Positions -
Mar 14, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 26.14, option @ 1.13
symbol: BMY1221A27.5 2012 JAN $27.50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.42/ 2.46

- or -

Mar 14, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 26.14, option @ 1.63
symbol: BMY1319A27.5 2013 JAN $27.50 call - current bid/ask $ 3.05/ 3.15

06/25/11 New stop loss @ 26.95
06/04/11 New stop loss @ 25.90

Current Target: $32.00
Current Stop loss: 26.95
Play Entered on: 03/14/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 03/12/11


CACI International - CACI - close: 65.52

07/09 update: It turned out to be a bullish week for CACI. Shares rallied to new four-year highs with the move past $66 on Wednesday and Thursday. After four weeks of gains the stock is short-term overbought. I would not be surprised to see a pull back into the $64-62 area. Currently our exit target is the $69.00 mark. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a more aggressive trade and if we keep our position size small we can limit our risk. CACI doesn't have LEAPS so we'll have to use the 2011 September calls.

- Current (small) Positions -
Apr 4, 2011 - entry price on CACI @ 62.04, option @ 3.30
symbol: CACI1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 3.10/ 3.30

- 2nd Position -

May 31, 2011 - entry price on CACI @ 63.14, option @ 2.65*
symbol: CACI1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 3.10/ 3.30

06/25/11 new stop loss @ 59.75
06/04/11 Adjustment - new stop @ 58.75
*5/31/11 estimate on the entry point of our 2nd position
05/28/11 New stop loss @ 59.25.
05/28/11 New entry point on the bounce. 2nd position above.
05/07/11 New stop loss @ 57.75

Current Target: $69.00
Current Stop loss: 59.75
Play Entered on: 04/04/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/12/11


Canadian Natl. Railway Co. - CNI - close: 79.19

07/09 update: CNI spent most of the week consolidating sideways near $80. Yet the jobs-induced sell-off on Friday sent CNI to its lows for the week. Shares of CNI should have support in the $77.50-75.00 area. I am suggesting we take advantage of this pull back to launch new positions. I'm listing the 2012 Jan. $85 calls below. Our target is $89.00.

- Current Positions -
Feb 28, 2011 - entry price on CNI @ 72.39, option @ 2.90
symbol: CNI1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 4.30/ 4.50

- 2nd Position, listed 7/9/11 -

Jul 11, 2011 - entry price on CNI @ --.--, option @ -.--
symbol: CNI1221A85 2012 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $ 2.25/ 2.45

07/09/11 Add a 2nd position (2012 Jan $85 call)
07/02/11 new stop loss @ 74.90
06/25/11 new stop loss @ 72.75
05/21/11 new stop loss @ 71.75
05/05/11 new entry point @ 75.00
04/02/11 New stop loss @ 69.00

Chart of CNI:

Current Target: $89.00
Current Stop loss: 74.90
Play Entered on: 02/28/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/26/11


Coach Inc. - COH - close: 66.82

07/09 update: Investors continued to bid up consumer-related names. Nearly two dozen retailers reported June same-store sales figures on Thursday and the majority of them beat expectations. COH gapped open higher on Thursday and hit a new all-time high of $69.20 but eventually succumbed to profit taking. Fortunately COH held up very well on Friday in spite of the jobs numbers.

The stock remains short-term overbought here. I would still prefer to launch new positions on a dip back near the $62.00 area but honestly COH may not pull back that far any time soon. COH earnings are expected in early August. The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

Please note our new stop loss at $59.00. I am also adjusting our targets to $74.00 and $79.00.

- Current Positions -
Jun 03, 2011 - entry price on COH @ 61.00, option @ 4.40
symbol: COH1221A65 2012 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $ 6.80/ 7.00

- or -

Jun 03, 2011 - entry price on COH @ 61.00, option @ 6.80
symbol: COH1319A70 2013 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 8.60/ 8.90

07/09/11 New stop loss @ 59.00, targets are $74.00 & $79.00
07/02/11 Look for some profit taking after the big rally
06/25/11 COH appears to be forming an H&S pattern. Consider an early exit now.
06/18/11 COH looks weak. Readers may want to consider an early exit.

Current Target: $74.00 & $79.00
Current Stop loss: 59.00
Play Entered on: 06/03/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/28/11


Costco Wholesale - COST - close: 81.41

07/09 update: Warning! The action in COST last week looks like a failed rally type of move. Shares were inching higher and saw a spike past $83.00 on Thursday morning as investors reacted to news. COST reported June same-store sales of +14.0% versus estimates of +13.1%. This fueled the move higher but COST failed at its May highs. Shares could be forming a bearish double top here.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Plus, I am raising our stop loss to $76.75. This leaves the stop under the June lows and under its 100-dma.

- Current Positions -
Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on COST @ 76.37, option @ 3.80
symbol:COST1221A80 2012 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 5.35/ 5.50

- or -

Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on COST @ 76.37, option @ 5.05
symbol:COST1319A85 2013 JAN $85 call - current bid/ask $ 6.55/ 6.75

07/09/11 new stop loss @ 76.75
06/25/11 expecting a dip toward the 100-dma
06/04/11 Adjusting our stop to $74.75
05/21/11 Take Profits - Sell Half now! COST @ 83.40.
2012 $80 call @ $7.55 (+98.6%), 2013 $85 call @ $8.30 (+64.3%)
05/14/11 New stop loss @ 75.75
04/30/11 New stop loss @ 73.40

Current Target: $89.50, 99.00
Current Stop loss: 76.75
Play Entered on: 04/07/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11


Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. - DPS - close: 41.92

07/09 update: DPS surged to new all-time highs on Tuesday. Shares ran into some profit taking on Thursday thanks to an analyst downgrade. Yet there was no follow through on Friday morning. The jobs data would have been the perfect excuse to sell anything. I would be tempted to buy calls on Friday's intraday bounce. More conservative traders could wait for a dip and then buy a bounce off the $41.00 level instead. If you do launch new positions I'd probably buy the 2012 February calls.

FYI: DPS does not have LEAPS so we are using the November 2011 calls.

- Current Positions -
May 11, 2011 - entry price on DPS @ 40.55, option @ 2.85
symbol: DPS1119K40 2011 NOV $40 call - current bid/ask $ 3.20/ 3.40

- or -

May 11, 2011 - entry price on DPS @ 40.55, option @ 1.00
symbol: DPS1119K45 2011 NOV $45 call - current bid/ask $ 0.95/ 1.10

07/02/11 new stop loss @ 39.40
06/25/11 DPS looks poised to correct toward the $38 level.

Current Target: $46.00
Current Stop loss: 39.40
Play Entered on: 05/11/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/07/11


Fiserv, Inc. - FISV - close: 64.61

07/09 update: It turned out to be a bullish week for FISV. The stock rallied to new all-time, record highs on Thursday with a move past $65. The Friday morning profit taking was not that bad and traders bought the dip near $64.00.

This action looks bullish. I am extremely tempted to buy calls right now (maybe the Dec. $65s) but FISV has not yet broken the trendline on the chart below.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 14, 2011 - entry price on FISV @ 62.30, option @ 3.20
symbol: FISV1117I65 2011 SEP $65 call - current bid/ask $ 1.90/ 2.00

07/09/11 readers may want to consider a 2nd position.
06/25/11 new stop loss @ 58.95
06/04/11 new stop loss @ 58.45

Chart of FISV

Current Target: $74.75
Current Stop loss: 58.95
Play Entered on: 02/14/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 02/12/11


Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 23.09

07/09 update: Intel managed to keep the rally going with another strong week in spite of an analyst downgrade. Shares remain short-term overbought so I would expect a pull back sooner rather than later. Keep in mind that INTC is due to report earnings on July 20th. Cautious traders may not want to open new positions this close to the earnings report. You could wait until after we hear INTC's results and see the market reaction to them.

Please note that we are raising our stop loss to $20.85, which is under support near $21.00 and its 200-dma.

- Current Positions -
Jun 01, 2011 - entry price on INTC @ 22.00, option @ 1.41
symbol: INTC1221A22.5 2012 JAN $22.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.78/ 1.82

- or -

Jun 01, 2011 - entry price on INTC @ 22.00, option @ 2.38
symbol: INTC1319A22.5 2013 JAN $22.50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.74/ 2.80

07/09/11 new stop loss @ 20.85

Current Target: $26.00-28.00 zone
Current Stop loss: 20.85
Play Entered on: 06/01/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/07/11


Monsanto Co. - MON - close: 75.17

07/09 update: Many of the agricultural chemical and fertilizer names have extended their rallies. MON is outperforming some of its peers. The stock has rallied toward resistance near the $75.00 level. Shares remain short-term overbought so I would not launch new positions but a dip or a bounce near the $70 area could be a new bullish entry point for us.

Prior Comments:
Our plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk since MON can be so volatile at times. Our long-term targets are the $85-90 zone.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Mar 15, 2011 - entry price on MON @ 65.50, option @ 6.75
symbol: MON1221A70 2012 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 9.05/ 9.20

- or -

Mar 15, 2011 - entry price on MON @ 65.50, option @ 8.75
symbol: MON1319A75 2013 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $10.60/10.90

07/02/11 new stop loss @ 64.00
06/25/11 Earnings are June 29th. Consider exiting ahead of the announcement.
06/18/11 Get defensive. Consider raising your stop loss or reducing your position size. Decide if you're willing to hold over the earnings report or if you'll exit early prior to the announcement.
04/09/11 New stop loss @ 61.75, Readers may want to exit early now.

Current Target(s): $85.00
Current Stop loss: 64.00
Play Entered on: 03/15/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/08/11


Southwestern Energy Co. - SWN - close: 43.91

07/09 update: SWN eked out another weekly gain but shares failed to breakout past its 2011 highs. The stock is essentially at the top of its trading range. We should expect a correction back into the $43-42 zone. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier comments:
We wanted to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Current (SMALL) Positions -
Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on SWN @ 40.50, option @ 2.90
SWN1221A45 2012 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.25/ 3.35

- or -

Apr 7, 2011 - entry price on SWN @ 40.50, option @ 5.85
SWN1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 6.55/ 6.70

07/02/11 SWN has reversed higher and stalled at resistance near $44.
06/25/11 SWN looks poised to drop toward support near $40.00.
05/28/11 new stop loss @ 39.45
05/07/11 New stop loss @ 37.75

Current Target(s): $50.00-52.50
Current Stop loss: 39.45
Play Entered on: 04/07/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/02/11


Union Pacific Corp. - UNP - close: 104.30

07/09 update: UNP managed to hit a new all-time high above $107.50 this past week but shares have reversed lower. The reversal and the close over what should have been support at $105.00 is a short-term bearish signal. If we see another bounce from the $102 or $100 levels then I might consider new bullish positions. Otherwise I would not buy calls here. We have less than two weeks before UNP reports earnings on July 21st.

- Current Positions -
May 5, 2011 - entry price on UNP @ 100.15, option @ 5.00
UNP1221A110 2012 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $ 4.55/ 4.65

- or -

May 5, 2011 - entry price on UNP @ 100.15, option @ 6.00
UNP1319A120 2013 JAN $120 call - current bid/ask $ 6.35/ 6.60

05/28/11 New stop loss @ 97.00

Current Target(s): $119.75-134.00
Current Stop loss: 97.00
Play Entered on: 05/05/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/30/11


Zimmer Holdings, Inc. - ZMH - close: 64.52

07/09 update: By Thursday ZMH had rallied through resistance at its 40 and 50-dma. Yet the reaction to the jobs report on Friday turned ZMH's gain into a loss for the week. Personally I'd rather buy a dip or a bounce near $63.00 if you're looking for an entry point.

Earlier comments:
Healthcare stocks had been one of the market's strongest sectors. When this market correction is over I expect healthcare to remain popular with investors. I like ZMH since an aging baby boomer population is going to see rising demand for ZMH's replacement joints and implants.

- Current Positions -
Jun 10, 2011 - entry price on ZMH @ 63.00, option @ 4.00
ZMH1221A65 2012 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $ 4.50/ 4.70

- or -

Jun 10, 2011 - entry price on ZMH @ 63.00, option @ 5.50
ZMH1319A70 2013 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 5.70/ 6.30

07/09/11 Look for a dip or a bounce near $63 as an entry point.
06/25/11 We are still expecting a dip toward $60.00. Wait for a bounce from this level before considering new positions.

Current Target(s): $78.50 & 88.50
Current Stop loss: 58.90
Play Entered on: 06/10/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/30/11