Closed Plays


CSC was closed.


Play Updates


Allergan Inc. - AGN - close: 85.02

Comments:
11/12 update: Shares of AGN continue to churn sideways in the $86-81 zone although this past week traders bought the dip twice at $82.00. A breakout or a close over $86.00 could be used as a new bullish entry point. Our long-term target is $99.00.

Earlier Comments:
Option spreads are wide for these LEAPS. We want to keep our position size pretty small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 17, 2011 - entry price on AGN @ 85.46, option @ 5.10
symbol: AGN1319A100 2013 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $ 2.50/ 5.00

10/22/11 Earnings are coming up. Readers might want to consider raising their stop loss. We are keeping ours at $79.45.

Current Target: $99.00
Current Stop loss: 79.45
Play Entered on: 10/17/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/24/11


Bank of America - BAC - close: 6.21

Comments:
11/12 update: It was another very volatile week for financial stocks with all the competing headlines out of Europe. Unfortunately BAC appears to be underperforming its peers. Shares are in a new short-term downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. If shares breakdown and close under $6.00 it would be very bearish although nimble traders could try and launch new positions on a dip near the October low (around $5.15).

If we do see a new entry point I would buy the 2013 calls (probably the $7.50s). We don't have much time left on the 2012 calls, which are pretty much dead money at this point.

- Suggested Positions -
AUG 29, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 8.10, option @ 0.57
symbol: BAC1221A10 2012 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.03/ 0.04
(no stop loss on this position)

- or -

AUG 29, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 8.10, option @ 1.50
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.58/ 0.59
(No stop loss on this position)

10/03/11 Sept. 26th position stopped out at $5.75.
2012 Jan. $7.50 call @ 0.48 (-27.2%)
2013 Jan. $10 call @ 0.74 (-26%)
10/01 raising our stop loss on the Sep. 26th position to $5.75
09/24 adding 2nd position, stop loss at $5.40
09/03 no stop loss on this trade at this time.

Current Target: $12.00-to-$15.00
Current Stop loss: see details above
Play Entered on: 08/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 08/27/11


Bristol Meyers Squibb - BMY - close: 31.79

Comments:
11/12 update: BMY has now spent two weeks consolidating sideways in the $31-32 range. Readers can use a close over $32.00 as a new bullish entry point (and aim for our long-term target).

Earlier Comments:
We have two exit targets. One at $33.50 and a longer-term target at $35.75. NOTE: BMY is not a very fast moving stock. We will need to be patient.

- Suggested Positions -
SEP 19, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 30.53, option @ 1.20
symbol: BMY1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 1.45/ 1.48

10/22/11 BMY is due to report earnings this week on Oct. 27th. Readers may want to take profits now or prior to the report.
10/08/11 new stop loss @ 29.40
09/16 Friday's close at $30.53 is our trigger to buy calls. Our entry will be Monday morning.

Current Target: $33.50 and 35.75
Current Stop loss: 29.40
Play Entered on: 09/19/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/10/11


Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 2.40

Comments:
11/12 update: Wow! It proved to be a very bullish week for BZH. Shares rallied +17.6% and closed at new multi-week highs. More conservative traders may want to take profits now. The stock has seen a big bounce over the last few weeks. There could be a huge temptation for investors to sell the earnings news coming out this week.

Cautious investors will want to take profits on Monday to avoid holding over the earnings report on Tuesday morning (Nov. 15th). Wall Street is expecting BZH to deliver a loss of 36 cents a share.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -

(stock position)
OCT 28, 2011 - entry price on BZH @ $2.12

(option position)
OCT 28, 2011 - entry price on BZH @ 2.12, option @ 0.70
symbol: BZH1319A2.5 2013 JAN $2.50 call - current bid/ask $ 0.85/ 1.00

11/12 BZH has seen a big bounce. Cautious investors may want to take profits now before BZH reports earnings on Nov. 15th. (BZH +13.2%, option +21.4%)
10/28 trade begins: BZH opens @ $2.12
10/27 BZH meets our entry point requirement with a close over $2.05

Current Target: $3.70
Current Stop loss: 1.57
Play Entered on: 10/28/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/22/11


CB Richard Ellis - CBG - close: 16.32

Comments:
11/12 update: CBG is still underperforming the market but it looks like the correction has stalled. Shares may have found a bottom with traders buying the dip at short-term support in the $15.80 area. We've been lucky. The low last week was $15.79. Our stop loss is at $15.75. I'd wait for a new close over $16.50 or $17.00 before considering new bullish positions.

NOTE: CBG does not have LEAPS. We are using the 2012 March calls.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 25, 2011 - entry price on CBG @ 16.63, option @ 1.80
symbol: CBG1217C18 2012 MAR $18 call - current bid/ask $ 1.20/ 1.55

10/31 scheduled exit to sell half of our March calls.
exit $2.30 (+27.7%)
10/29 Plan on selling half at the open on Monday to lock in a gain.
new stop loss @ 15.75
adjusted final target from $20.00 to $21.50

Current Target: $21.50
Current Stop loss: 15.75
Play Entered on: 10/25/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/15/11


Cisco Systems - CSCO - close: 19.02

Comments:
11/12 update: CSCO added almost a dollar last week thanks to a strong earnings report. Analysts were expecting a profit of 39 cents a share. CSCO delivered 43 cents and revenues came in much better than expected. Management offered positive earnings guidance for the next quarter. Shares gapped higher the next day. The stock closed at new multi-month highs on Friday.

I wouldn't chase it here but the $18.00-17.50 zone looks like support. Investors could wait for another pull back.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 28, 2011 - entry price on CSCO @ 18.28, option @ 1.68
symbol: CSCO1319A20 2013 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $2.15/2.17

10/29/11 new stop loss @ 16.40
10/28/11 stock opens at $18.28
10/27/11 CSCO meets our entry requirement: close at $18.44
10/22/11 Added entry to buy a close over $17.75
10/15/11 We are adjusting our entry point. Wait for a dip to $16.65
10/14/11 CSCO hit our entry point requirement for a close over $17.50.

Current Target: $21.75
Current Stop loss: 16.40
Play Entered on: 10/28/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/08/11


EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 24.64

Comments:
11/12 update: EMC's +2.4% bounce on Friday erased its loss on the week down to three cents. Shares are stuck in the $24-25 zone. More aggressive traders might want to consider bullish positions on a breakout past $25.00 or its simple 200-dma near $25.40.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to use small positions to limit our risk.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
(Remaining positions)
Aug 18, 2011 - entry price on EMC @ 20.25, option @ 1.80
symbol: EMC1319A25 2013 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 3.35/ 3.45

10/31/11 scheduled exit. EMC gapped down at $24.47. The 2012 $20 call opened at $4.65 (+111.3%). We also had plans to sell half of our 2013 $25 calls, which opened at $3.02 (+67.7%)
10/29/11 Plan to sell the rest of our 2012 Jan $20 calls on Monday at the open. Also plan to sell half of our 2013 Jan $25 calls on Monday at the open.
10/29/11 new stop loss @ 22.20
10/22/11 new stop loss @ 21.40
10/17/11 sold half of 2012 calls @ open, bid $3.55 (+61.3%)
10/15/11 Plan to Sell Half of our 2012 calls ASAP
10/08/11 new stop loss @ 19.85
09/24 new stop loss @ 19.49
09/17 new stop loss @ 19.80

Current Target: final target for 2013 calls @ $27.50
Current Stop loss: 22.20
Play Entered on: 08/18/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 07/23/11


Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 15.19

Comments:
11/12 update: After churning sideways most of the week GLW displayed relative strength on Friday with a +4.2% gain and a breakout past the 100-dma. I couldn't find any specific news on Friday to account for the extra strength.

Over the weekend Barron's published a bullish article on GLW. Barron's said shares were very cheap, with the company trading near book value and that insiders were buying the stock. Barron's suggested GLW could rally +20% from current levels. With a P/E of 7 the stock does look cheap.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time but nimble traders might consider buying a dip near $14.75.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 25, 2011 - entry price on GLW @ 14.27, option @ 2.05
symbol: GLW1319A15 2013 JAN $15 call - current bid/ask $2.70/2.74

Current Target: $18.00
Current Stop loss: 12.85
Play Entered on: 10/25/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/22/11


Hewlett-Packard - HPQ - close: 27.58

Comments:
11/12 update: There has been some concern over how the massive floods in Thailand is affecting the hardware makers but most of the damage seems to be directed at the disk drive industry. HPQ's stock has not seen much impact from this natural disaster. HPQ is still trending higher with a bullish pattern of higher lows. The stock is nearing resistance in the $28 region and its 100-dma. Furthermore HPQ is due to report earnings soon on November 21st, after the closing bell. I would hesitate to open positions prior to the earnings announcement. There is always the chance HPQ misses or management says something that could case the stock to spike lower.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Longer-term Trade
Sep 26, 2011 - entry price on HPQ @ 22.59, option @ 3.75
symbol: HPQ1319A25 2013 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 6.20/ 6.25
Stop Loss @ 23.90

10/31/11 scheduled exit for the remainder of our 2012 calls @ the open. Options opened at $5.40 (+100%), plus we sold half of our 2013 $25 calls, which opened at $5.70 (+52%).
10/29/11 new stop loss on 2013 calls at $23.90
10/29/11 prepare to exit remainder of 2012 position on Monday @ open
prepare to sell 1/2 (half) of 2013 position on Monday at open
10/17/11 Planned exit, sell 1/2 of 2012 position, bid @ 4.10 (+52.4%)
10/15/11 new stop loss for the 2012 position @ 22.85
10/15/11 Plan to sell 1/2 of 2012 calls on Monday
10/08/11 new stop loss (both positions) at $21.40

Current Target: 2013 call target: 32.50
Play Entered on: 09/26/11
Originally listed in New Plays: 09/24/11


Hershey Co. - HSY - close: 56.99

Comments:
11/12 update: It was a relatively quiet week for HSY. The company did announce a $250 million bond offering, yielding 1.5%, due in 2016. I see this as a non-event. The company has a strong credit rating and it's cheap money. The bigger headline was cautious comments from rival chocolate maker Barry Callebaut, who voiced concerns over rising raw material costs. I am worried about HSY's new trend of lower highs and lower lows. This is a bearish pattern within the longer-term bullish one. The stock is nearing what should be support at its simple and exponential 200-dma(s).

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Oct 19, 2011 - entry price on HSY @ 60.57, option @ 3.90
symbol: HSY1319A65 2013 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $ 1.81/ 2.46

10/29/11 adjust stop loss to $55.40, under 200-dma
10/27/11 reports earnings that are in-line with estimates
10/19/11 HSY opens at $60.57, option opens @ 3.90
10/18/11 HSY meets our entry requirement with a close over $60.25

Current Target: $67.00 & 74.00
Current Stop loss: 55.40
Play Entered on: 10/19/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/17/11


JP Morgan Chase - JPM - close: 33.28

Comments:
11/12 update: A week ago JPM closed near $34.00. After a volatile week the stock is only down -2%. There seemed to be a rash of positive headlines out of Europe late in the week but longer-term the problem in Europe is far from solved. That's why this trade is a higher-risk bet that EU will somehow avoid a sovereign debt default, or at least engineer a default in such a way as to not bring down the entire union (or its banking system).

Depending on which direction financials go next week you could wait for a breakdown toward support near $30.00 or wait for a breakout over resistance near $35.00 as your entry point.

I have been suggesting that readers take a very cautious approach to position size. Start small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions -
Nov 01, 2011 - entry price on JPM @ 32.47, option @ 2.38
symbol: JPM1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.77/ 2.91

11/12/11 remember to keep position size small.
11/05/11 new stop loss at $29.90

Current Target: $46
Current Stop loss: 29.90
Play Entered on: 11/01/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/29/11


KB Home - KBH - close: 7.60

Comments:
11/12 update: It turned out to be a bullish week for homebuilders, albeit a volatile one. Shares of KBH rallied +7.4% and Friday saw a breakout over its 100-dma and the $7.50 level. I wouldn't chase it here. Wait for a dip back toward $7.00 or its rising 30-dma. It's a volatile stock. We will see another dip.

Earlier Comments:
If there is a breakout the stock could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 52% of the 65 million-share float.

- Suggested Positions -
(Stock Position)
Oct 19, 2011 - entry price on KBH @ 7.17

- or -

(Option Position)
Oct 19, 2011 - entry price on KBH @ 7.17, option @ 1.25
symbol: KBH1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 1.04/ 1.28

10/19/11 Trade opens. KBH opens @ 7.17, option @ 1.25
10/18/11 KBH meets our entry requirement with a close above $7.00

Current Target: $9.90
Current Stop loss: 5.95
Play Entered on: 10/19/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/15/11


Kraft Foods Inc. - KFT - close: 35.57

Comments:
11/12 update: KFT spent the week churning sideways but shares ended on a high note with a +1.2% gain on Friday. KFT still has resistance near $36.00. Readers may want to wait for a close over $36.00 before considering new bullish positions.

We are raising our stop loss to $32.40.

NOTE: KFT is a very slow moving stock. It will take months to make any progress. Once a position is open readers may want to turn these into calendar spreads (a.k.a. vertical spreads).

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Sep 22, 2011 - entry price on KFT @ 32.71, option @ 2.35
symbol: KFT1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 3.10/ 3.35

11/12/11 new stop loss @ 32.40

Current Target: $38.00
Current Stop loss: 32.40
Play Entered on: 09/22/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/17/11


Kimberly-Clark Corp. - KMB - close: 71.10

Comments:
11/12 update: Our new play on KMB is off to a good start. Shares opened at $69.50 on Monday and have slowly drifted higher. The weekly chart has produced a new bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. I would still consider new bullish positions now or readers could wait for another dip near $70.00.

Earlier Comments:
KMB does have long-term resistance in the $73.00-73.50 area. Therefore we will only open small (half-sized) positions now. When KMB closes above $74.00 we'll reconsider adding new positions to this play. Our long-term target is $79.75 but we'll readjust it as the play progresses. The Point & Figure chart is currently suggesting a long-term target of $98.00. NOTE: KMB does not move very fast. Investors may want to try and maximize their returns by changing this into a vertical (a.k.a. calendar) spread.

- Suggested Positions -
Nov 07, 2011 - entry price on KMB @ 69.50, option @ 2.05
symbol: KMB1319A75 2013 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 2.55/ 2.75

Current Target: $79.75
Current Stop loss: 65.75
Play Entered on: 11/07/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 11/05/11


Limited Brands, Inc. - LTD - close: 43.94

Comments:
11/12 update: It turned out to be a bullish week for LTD. Shares were definitely outperforming on Friday with a +3.8% gain. A positive consumer sentiment report didn't hurt the retailers. LTD has broken the short-term two-week trend of lower highs. While I would be tempted to buy calls here I would wait. LTD is due to release earnings on Wednesday (Nov. 16th) after the market's closing bell. Wall Street is expecting a profit of 24 cents a share. You never know when a company might miss or have management guide lower and send the stock into a nosedive. I'd wait to see how the street reacts on Thursday before considering new positions.

More conservative traders may want to consider raising their stop loss just in case LTD does sell-off after earnings.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Oct 25, 2011 - entry price on LTD @ 43.70, option @ 4.25
symbol: LTD1319A50 2013 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 3.90/ 4.20

10/25/11 trade begins when LTD opens at $43.70
10/24/11 closed at $43.79, meets our entry point requirement
10/15/11 New Strategy: buy a close over $43.50, stop 37.90
10/01/11 adjusted stop loss to $32.90, if triggered
09/24/11 new trigger @ 35.50, updated 2013 option strike
09/17/11 new trigger @ 37.50, updated option strikes.

Current Target: $54.00
Current Stop loss: 37.90
Play Entered on: 10/25/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/27/11


Red Hat Inc. - RHT - close: 50.05

Comments:
11/12 update: Bingo! Last week I suggested waiting for a dip toward the $48.50 area as another entry point. RHT provided a dip to $48.00 instead before bouncing back. On a short-term basis RHT has resistance near $51.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Please note that we are raising the stop loss to $44.75.

- Suggested Positions -
Nov 01, 2011 - entry price on RHT @ 47.70, option @ 4.75
symbol: RHT1319A60 2013 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 4.60/ 6.00

11/12/11 new stop loss @ 44.75

Current Target: $59.75
Current Stop loss: 44.75
Play Entered on: 11/01/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/29/11


Ross Stores Inc. - ROST - close: 89.77

Comments:
11/12 update: The market-wide sell-off last Wednesday pushed ROST from $90 toward support near $86.00. Shares have almost completely recovered. While the trend is up I am concerned that ROST could see more profit taking soon. The company is due to report earnings on Thursday, Nov. 17th, before the opening bell. Analysts are expecting a profit of $1.22 per share.

The stock is up several weeks in a row. There could be a huge temptation for investors to sell the earnings news to lock in a gain. I am not suggesting new positions at this time and more conservative traders may want to seriously consider taking some money off the table before ROST announces earnings.

We are leaving our stop loss at $81.75 for now. I'm expecting ROST to have support at $86 and $83 should the stock see a sell-off.

- Suggested Positions -
Oct 11, 2011 - entry price on ROST @ 84.36, option @ 5.30
symbol: ROST1319A100 2013 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $ 6.70/ 7.00

11/12/11 Cautious investors may want to take profits early. Option has a bid of $6.70 (+26.4%)
11/05/11 new stop loss @ 81.75
10/22/11 new stop loss @ 79.25
10/15/11 adjusted stop loss to $77.00
10/11/11 ROST opened at $84.36
10/10/11 ROST closed above $83, our requirement to open the trade
10/08/11 adjusted option strike to 2013 Jan. $100 call
10/01/11 new strategy: buy a close over $83.00
09/24/11 new trigger at $73.00, stop 69.50
09/17/11 new trigger at $76.50, stop @ 71.40, new strikes.

Current Target: $99.00
Current Stop loss: 81.75
Play Entered on: 10/11/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/10/11


U.S. Steel Corp. - X - close: 26.14

Comments:
11/12 update: Shares of X have made the leap from our watch list to our play list. The plan was to buy calls on a dip at $25.50. Wednesday's market-wide sell-off provided that opportunity. Shares found support near $25.00 (actually the intraday low was $25.16). Shares hit $24.77 on Thursday morning before rebounding.

I would still consider new positions here but you could wait for another dip toward the $25.00 area, which should remain support.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Nov 09, 2011 - entry price on X @ 25.50, option @ 5.00
symbol: X1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 5.10/ 5.25

11/09/11 Trade opened at $25.50 (small positions)

Chart of X:

Current Target: $37.50
Current Stop loss: 21.40
Play Entered on: 11/09/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/05/11


CLOSED Plays


Computer Sciences Corp. - CSC - close: 26.48

Comments:
11/12 update: Ouch! From the close on Nov. 8th ($32.97) to the low on Nov. 10th ($24.92) shares of CSC fell eight points (-24.4%). The company reported earnings on November 9th before the opening bell. Analysts had been expecting a profit of 67 cents a share. The company actually beat by a wide margin with a profit of 94 cents but revenues missed and management guided lower for 2012.

CSC fell -15% on the 9th but closed at $27.80. Our stop loss wasn't hit until the 10th. Actually, CSC gapped open below our stop loss at $27.37, exacerbating our loss.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 28, 2011 - entry price on CSC @ 32.37, option @ 3.30
symbol: CSC1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - exit $1.90 (-42.4%)

Chart of CSC:

Current Target: $39.00
Current Stop loss: 27.75
Play Entered on: 10/28/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/22/11