Closed Plays


GLW has been stopped out.


Play Updates


Allergan Inc. - AGN - close: 83.57

Comments:
12/03 update: Shares of AGN have seen a significant rebound. The stock had closed under its 200-dma last week near $79 a week ago. On Friday the stock was challenging resistance near $85.00. On a short-term basis the move on Friday looks like a bearish reversal but I would expect traders to buy the dip in the $83-81 zone assuming the wider market doesn't crash. It's an ugly image but big picture AGN still has a bullish trend of higher lows and higher highs. I would prefer to see AGN close over $85.50 before investors consider new bullish positions.

Earlier Comments:
Option spreads are wide for these LEAPS. We want to keep our position size pretty small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 17, 2011 - entry price on AGN @ 85.46, option @ 5.10
symbol: AGN1319A100 2013 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $ 2.85/ 4.30

11/19/11 Taking an aggressive stance on our stop loss and moving it down to $77.45
10/22/11 Earnings are coming up. Readers might want to consider raising their stop loss. We are keeping ours at $79.45.

Current Target: $99.00
Current Stop loss: 77.45
Play Entered on: 10/17/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/24/11


Bank of America - BAC - close: 5.64

Comments:
12/03 update: Financials were showing relative strength last week with investors buying the beaten down sector. There is still significant European risk associated with the major U.S. banks but there is a chance last week was the bottom for BAC. The $5.15-5.00 zone where traders have been buying dips the past two weeks is support. Combine that with the early October low at $5.13 and we have the potential for a bullish double bottom pattern.

I am a little reluctant to open new positions. We already bought the dip on November 23rd.

Earlier Comments:
A couple of weeks ago there was a report from Reuters suggesting that S&P was going to change the way they rate the credit ratings of banks. Bank of America, Citigroup (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) might all see their credit rating downgraded by S&P after they implement this new rating process. That will likely send shares of BAC lower.

- Suggested Positions -
AUG 29, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 8.10, option @ 0.57
symbol: BAC1221A10 2012 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.01/ 0.02
(no stop loss on this position)

- or -

AUG 29, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 8.10, option @ 1.50
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.39/ 0.40
(No stop loss on this position)

(2nd Position, bought the dip at $5.15)

NOV 23, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 5.15, option @ 0.35
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.39/ 0.40
(no stop loss on this position)

11/23/11 BAC hits new trigger @ 5.15 to buy calls.
11/19/11 New trigger to buy calls @ $5.15 (see 2nd position)
10/03/11 Sept. 26th position stopped out at $5.75.
2012 Jan. $7.50 call @ 0.48 (-27.2%)
2013 Jan. $10 call @ 0.74 (-26%)
10/01 raising our stop loss on the Sep. 26th position to $5.75
09/24 adding 2nd position, stop loss at $5.40
09/03 no stop loss on this trade at this time.

Current Target: $12.00-to-$15.00
Current Stop loss: see details above
Play Entered on: 08/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 08/27/11


Bristol Meyers Squibb - BMY - close: 32.77

Comments:
12/03 update: Shares of BMY outperformed the broader market with a +8.6% rally last week. The stock has gone almost straight up this past week. Is this end of year window dressing by fund managers? Is it another rush into a high-dividend stock? The rally on Friday stalled (and reversed) near resistance at its 2011 highs around the $33.25 area. I would expect some short-term profit taking after last week's big advance.

NOTE: I am reducing our two exit targets to just one. Instead of having an exit target at $33.50 and $35.75 we'll condense them down to $34.50 instead.

- Suggested Positions -
SEP 19, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 30.53, option @ 1.20
symbol: BMY1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 1.69/ 1.76

12/03/11 reduce our two exit targets to just one at $34.50
10/22/11 BMY is due to report earnings this week on Oct. 27th. Readers may want to take profits now or prior to the report.
10/08/11 new stop loss @ 29.40
09/16 Friday's close at $30.53 is our trigger to buy calls. Our entry will be Monday morning.

Current Target: $33.50 and 35.75
Current Stop loss: 29.40
Play Entered on: 09/19/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/10/11


Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 2.42

Comments:
12/03 update: BZH has also delivered an impressive move higher. Shares rallied +28% last week and managed to rally past its mid November highs. We did see the rally stall on Friday near technical resistance at the 150-dma. After such a big move higher I would expect some profit taking soon. Look for support in the $2.25-2.20 zone.

Please note that we are raising our stop loss up to $1.85.

- Suggested Positions -

(stock position)
OCT 28, 2011 - entry price on BZH @ $2.12

(option position)
OCT 28, 2011 - entry price on BZH @ 2.12, option @ 0.70
symbol: BZH1319A2.5 2013 JAN $2.50 call - current bid/ask $ 0.80/ 0.95

12/03/11 new stop loss @ 1.85
11/26/11 new stop loss at $1.75
11/15/11 BZH reports a loss of 57 cents a share, worse than expected
11/12 BZH has seen a big bounce. Cautious investors may want to take profits now before BZH reports earnings on Nov. 15th. (BZH +13.2%, option +21.4%)
10/28 trade begins: BZH opens @ $2.12
10/27 BZH meets our entry point requirement with a close over $2.05

Current Target: $3.70
Current Stop loss: 1.85
Play Entered on: 10/28/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/22/11


Cisco Systems - CSCO - close: 18.55

Comments:
12/03 update: CSCO rallied just over a $1.00 for the week. Shares could struggle with the mid November highs near $19.00-19.15. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. I will point out that if CSCO rolls over from current levels you could argue it's building a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern over the last six weeks. More conservative traders might want to reconsider their stop loss placement.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 28, 2011 - entry price on CSCO @ 18.28, option @ 1.68
symbol: CSCO1319A20 2013 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $1.85/1.91

10/29/11 new stop loss @ 16.40
10/28/11 stock opens at $18.28
10/27/11 CSCO meets our entry requirement: close at $18.44
10/22/11 Added entry to buy a close over $17.75
10/15/11 We are adjusting our entry point. Wait for a dip to $16.65
10/14/11 CSCO hit our entry point requirement for a close over $17.50.

Current Target: $21.75
Current Stop loss: 16.40
Play Entered on: 10/28/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/08/11


CSX Corp. - CSX - close: 21.65

Comments:
12/03 update: A potential railroad strike has been averted this week, which would have been costly during the holiday shopping season. The railroad industry managed to come to an agreement with two major labor unions and extended talks with a third union. This helped put a bottom under the rails. Shares of CSX surged from $20.00 a week ago to $22.23 on Friday morning. The stock is now testing resistance at its exponential 200-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
I do see potential resistance at the $24.00 level and the $26.75-27.00 zone. Yet the Point & Figure chart for CSX is bullish with a $33.50 target.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 14, 2011 - entry price on CSX @ 22.59, option @ 2.24
symbol: CSX1319A25 2013 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 1.77/ 1.84

- or -

NOV 14, 2011 - entry price on CSX @ 22.59, option @ 3.30
symbol: CSX1418A25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 2.65/ 2.90

11/26/11 I had cautioned readers to expect a potential dip to $20.00. CSX hit this level on Friday.

Current Target: $29.75
Current Stop loss: 19.75
Play Entered on: 11/14/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 11/12/11


Enterprise Products Partners - EPD - close: 46.28

Comments:
12/03 update: EPD garnered some positive analyst comments on TV this week. The market's widespread gains helped push EPD to new all-time highs. Big picture nothing has changed for us. I would still consider new positions in the $45.00-44.00 zone.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $59.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for EPD is bullish with a $60 target. I am listing the 2013 calls but there are also 2014s available (with a much wider spread).

- Suggested Positions -
Nov 21, 2011 - entry price on EPD @ 45.17, option @ 1.45
symbol: EPD1319A50 2013 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.45/ 1.70

Current Target: $59.00
Current Stop loss: 41.75
Play Entered on: 11/21/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 11/19/11


Hewlett-Packard - HPQ - close: 27.68

Comments:
12/03 update: At Friday's intraday high HPQ was up more than +10% for the week. Unfortunately the stock couldn't breakout past resistance near the $28.50 level. After such a big bounce I would expect some profit taking. Obviously a close over resistance would be very positive. There is still a potential hurdle for HPQ near the $29.75-30.00 zone at the top of the August gap down.

While the recent action is bullish I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Please note our new stop loss at $24.75.

FYI: It is worth noting that the Point & Figure chart for HPQ is bullish with a $41 target.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Longer-term Trade
Sep 26, 2011 - entry price on HPQ @ 22.59, option @ 3.75
symbol: HPQ1319A25 2013 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 6.05/ 6.20
Stop Loss @ 24.75

12/03/11 new stop loss @ 24.75
11/19/11 Readers need to decide: Take profits now (+76%) or hold on and expect some volatility following HPQ's earnings report on Nov. 21st
10/31/11 scheduled exit for the remainder of our 2012 calls @ the open. Options opened at $5.40 (+100%), plus we sold half of our 2013 $25 calls, which opened at $5.70 (+52%).
10/29/11 new stop loss on 2013 calls at $23.90
10/29/11 prepare to exit remainder of 2012 position on Monday @ open
prepare to sell 1/2 (half) of 2013 position on Monday at open
10/17/11 Planned exit, sell 1/2 of 2012 position, bid @ 4.10 (+52.4%)
10/15/11 new stop loss for the 2012 position @ 22.85
10/15/11 Plan to sell 1/2 of 2012 calls on Monday
10/08/11 new stop loss (both positions) at $21.40

Current Target: 2013 call target: 32.50
Play Entered on: 09/26/11
Originally listed in New Plays: 09/24/11


KB Home - KBH - close: 7.94

Comments:
12/03 update: KBH has seen a big jump this week with a +18% gain. Shares rallied right to resistance near the $8.00 level. Volume has been strong on the rally, which is normally a good signal for the bulls. I wouldn't chase it here right at resistance.

Please note our new stop loss at $6.38.

Earlier Comments:
KBH can be a volatile stock. There is no need to chase it. If there is a breakout the stock could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 52% of the 65 million-share float.

- Suggested Positions -
(Stock Position)
Oct 19, 2011 - entry price on KBH @ 7.17

- or -

(Option Position)
Oct 19, 2011 - entry price on KBH @ 7.17, option @ 1.25
symbol: KBH1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 1.17/ 1.29

12/03/11 new stop loss @ 6.38
10/19/11 Trade opens. KBH opens @ 7.17, option @ 1.25
10/18/11 KBH meets our entry requirement with a close above $7.00

Current Target: $9.90
Current Stop loss: 6.38
Play Entered on: 10/19/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/15/11


Kraft Foods Inc. - KFT - close: 36.50

Comments:
12/03 update: KFT has produced a very strong move and a breakout to new multi-year highs. The close over $36.00 is very bullish but KFT looks short-term overbought here. Readers may want to wait a few days and then re-evaluate if you're looking for a new entry point.

Please note our new stop loss at $33.85. Given KFT's recent strength I am raising our final exit target from $38.00 to $40.00.

Earlier Comments:
NOTE: KFT is normally a very slow moving stock. It will take months to make any progress. Once a position is open readers may want to turn these into calendar spreads (a.k.a. vertical spreads).

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Sep 22, 2011 - entry price on KFT @ 32.71, option @ 2.35
symbol: KFT1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 3.60/ 3.70

12/03/11 new stop loss @ 33.85, adjusted exit target to $40.00
11/12/11 new stop loss @ 32.40

Current Target: $40.00
Current Stop loss: 33.85
Play Entered on: 09/22/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/17/11


Kimberly-Clark Corp. - KMB - close: 70.73

Comments:
12/03 update: KMB delivered a nice bounce but the stock struggled with resistance near $71.50. Friday's performance actually produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which might indicate a short-term bearish reversal. I wouldn't be surprised to see some profit taking. However, the long-term trend is still bullish and KMB should benefit from investors looking for a nice dividend. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
KMB does have long-term resistance in the $73.00-73.50 area. Therefore we will only start with small (half-sized) positions. When KMB closes above $74.00 we'll reconsider adding new positions to this play. Our long-term target is $79.75 but we'll readjust it as the play progresses. The Point & Figure chart is currently suggesting a long-term target of $98.00. NOTE: KMB does not move very fast. Investors may want to try and maximize their returns by changing this into a vertical (a.k.a. calendar) spread.

- Suggested Positions -
(half sized position)
Nov 07, 2011 - entry price on KMB @ 69.50, option @ 2.05
symbol: KMB1319A75 2013 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 2.20/ 2.40

Current Target: $79.75
Current Stop loss: 65.75
Play Entered on: 11/07/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 11/05/11


Limited Brands, Inc. - LTD - close: 42.61

Comments:
12/03 update: LTD is up +11% for the week. Yet you'll notice that the stock's rally has stalled at the new trendline of lower highs starting at the October peak. I wouldn't be surprised to see some profit taking here. Readers may want to consider buying another bounce off $40.00.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Oct 25, 2011 - entry price on LTD @ 43.70, option @ 4.25
symbol: LTD1319A50 2013 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 3.10/ 3.40

11/16/11 LTD reports earnings one cent above estimates
10/25/11 trade begins when LTD opens at $43.70
10/24/11 closed at $43.79, meets our entry point requirement
10/15/11 New Strategy: buy a close over $43.50, stop 37.90
10/01/11 adjusted stop loss to $32.90, if triggered
09/24/11 new trigger @ 35.50, updated 2013 option strike
09/17/11 new trigger @ 37.50, updated option strikes.

Current Target: $54.00
Current Stop loss: 37.90
Play Entered on: 10/25/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/27/11


QUALCOMM Inc. - QCOM - close: 54.34

Comments:
12/03 update: It seems like most analyst have very positive expectations and opinions for QCOM. Yet the stock isn't seeing the love I was expecting from investors. Is all the good news priced in? Shares do have a multi-month trend of higher lows and higher highs. Yet QCOM isn't even close to its 2011 highs near resistance at $60.00.

Readers may want to wait on new positions. I suspect we might see QCOM provide us another entry point near $52.50 again before the month is out.

Currently we have a stop loss at $49.40. Our long-term target is $74.50.

Earlier Comments:
QCOM recently reported much better than expected earnings, beating both the top and bottom line estimates. Management raised their guidance looking ahead. The company is reaping the benefits from the booming smartphone market. The CEO said there is over 300 new devices in development that will use QCOM electronics inside. That sounds like there is a lot of potential for growth.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
NOV 23, 2011 - entry price on QCOM @ 52.50, option @ 4.90
symbol: QCOM1319A60 2013 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 5.00/ 5.10

11/23/11 QCOM hits our trigger @ 52.50

Current Target: $74.50
Current Stop loss: 49.40
Play Entered on: 11/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/05/11


Reynolds American Inc. - RAI - close: 41.26

Comments:
12/03 update: RAI hit new all-time highs at $42.18 on Thursday. Shares have since pulled back and to be honest it looks like a short-term bearish reversal. I would expect RAI to retest support near $40.00 again or even the rising 50-dma. Wait for a dip near these levels before considering new bullish positions.

- Suggested Positions -
Nov 18, 2011 - entry price on RAI @ 40.02, option @ 2.00
symbol: RAI1319A42.5 2013 JAN $42.50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.00/ 2.25

Current Target: $49.00
Current Stop loss: 37.85
Play Entered on: 11/18/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/22/11


Red Hat Inc. - RHT - close: 50.22

Comments:
12/03 update: RHT is up about +10% for the week. Not bad for five days of work. Volume did fade on Thursday and Friday. While I am bullish on RHT I would not chase it here. After a +10% move it could see some profit taking. Traders will also want to keep in mind that RHT has earnings coming up on Monday, December 19th. More conservative traders may want to wait and see how the market reacts to earnings before considering new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
Nov 01, 2011 - entry price on RHT @ 47.70, option @ 4.75
symbol: RHT1319A60 2013 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 4.80/ 6.10

11/12/11 new stop loss @ 44.75

Current Target: $59.75
Current Stop loss: 44.75
Play Entered on: 11/01/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/29/11


Transocean Ltd. - RIG - close: 42.76

Comments:
12/03 update: RIG has made the leap from our watch list to our play list. Back in 2008 and 2010 shares of RIG found support in the $42-41 zone and produced significant rebounds off these multi-year lows. We are betting that RIG will do it again. The stock hit our buy-the-dip trigger at $42.25 on November 29th. Shares actually gapped down at $43.03 and fell to $41.28 (a multi-year low) before bouncing. Readers may want to look for another dip near $42.00 or more conservative traders could wait for a close over $45.00 as their entry point for bullish positions.

- Suggested SMALL Positions -
Nov 29, 2011 - entry price on RIG @ 42.25, option @ 4.65
symbol: RIG1319A50 2013 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 4.60/ 4.75

Chart of RIG:

Current Target: $59.00
Current Stop loss: 39.45
Play Entered on: 11/29/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/26/11


Ross Stores Inc. - ROST - close: 92.42

Comments:
12/03 update: It was a very big week for ROST. The stock soared +8.1% and broke out to new highs. I wouldn't chase it here. ROST has a stock split coming up on December 15th. We will most likely exit just prior to the stock split and re-evaluate ROST on a post-split basis.

The recent low was $83.98. I am raising our stop to $83.90.

Earlier Comments:
ROST announced a 2-for-1 stock split when they reported earnings on November 17th. The split is set for Dec. 16th.

- Suggested Positions -
Oct 11, 2011 - entry price on ROST @ 84.36, option @ 5.30
symbol: ROST1319A100 2013 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $ 7.70/ 7.80

12/03/11 new stop loss @ 83.90
11/17/11 ROST reported earnings that were in-line and announced a 2-for-1 stock split set for Dec. 16th
11/12/11 Cautious investors may want to take profits early. Option has a bid of $6.70 (+26.4%)
11/05/11 new stop loss @ 81.75
10/22/11 new stop loss @ 79.25
10/15/11 adjusted stop loss to $77.00
10/11/11 ROST opened at $84.36
10/10/11 ROST closed above $83, our requirement to open the trade
10/08/11 adjusted option strike to 2013 Jan. $100 call
10/01/11 new strategy: buy a close over $83.00
09/24/11 new trigger at $73.00, stop 69.50
09/17/11 new trigger at $76.50, stop @ 71.40, new strikes.

Current Target: $99.00
Current Stop loss: 83.90
Play Entered on: 10/11/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/10/11


U.S. Steel Corp. - X - close: 27.81

Comments:
12/03 update: Last week was a big one for shares of X. The stock surged almost +25% with more than +15% of that on Wednesday's big move higher. The rally stalled right at resistance near its early November highs and its simple 100-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Please note that I am inching up our stop loss to $21.90.

Earlier Comments:
This is an aggressive trade because X can be volatile and we have a wide stop loss. That's why we're using small positions to limit our risk.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Nov 09, 2011 - entry price on X @ 25.50, option @ 5.00
symbol: X1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 6.10/ 6.30

12/03/11 new stop loss at $21.90
11/09/11 Trade opened at $25.50 (small positions)

Current Target: $37.50
Current Stop loss: 21.90
Play Entered on: 11/09/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/05/11


CLOSED Plays


Corning Inc. - GLW - close: 13.22

Comments:
12/03 update: Earlier this week GLW lowered its Q4 guidance on LCD glass volumes. This sent the stock down sharply. The stock gapped open lower at $13.57 on November 29th and spiked down to $12.64 before rebounding. Our stop loss was hit at $12.85. The bid on our 2013 Jan $15 call was trading near $1.50 at the time.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 25, 2011 - entry price on GLW @ 14.27, option @ 2.05
symbol: GLW1319A15 2013 JAN $15 call - exit $1.50 (-26.8%)

11/29/11 GLW lowered guidance on LCD glass volumes, stock plunges. Stop loss hit at $12.85.

Chart of GLW:

Current Target: $18.00
Current Stop loss: 12.85
Play Entered on: 10/25/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/22/11