Editor's Note:

Shares of SHW spiked toward $100 and hit our exit at $99.00 this past week. Meanwhile, a weak dollar helped fuel an oversold bounce in the euro and the FXE hit our stop loss, closing our put trade.

We will continue to see a lot of earnings reports this week and that means individual stock volatility.


Closed Plays


FXE was stopped out. SHW hit our target.


Play Updates


Allergan Inc. - AGN - close: 88.82

Comments:
01/28/12 update: AGN managed to post another gain for the week but shares can't seem to get past resistance near $90. I would expect shares to continue to trade sideways up to its earnings report on Feb. 2nd. The announcement comes out that morning before the bell. More conservative traders might want to raise their stop loss significantly or consider some sort of hedge prior to the announcement. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Option spreads are wide for these LEAPS. We want to keep our position size pretty small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 17, 2011 - entry price on AGN @ 85.46, option @ 5.10
symbol: AGN1319A100 2013 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $ 2.85/ 3.50

01/28/12 earnings are due on Feb. 2nd. Readers might want to raise their stop or consider some sort of hedge prior to the report.
12/24/11 new stop loss @ 81.60
12/10/11 spreads on our 2013 calls are getting wider!
11/19/11 Taking an aggressive stance on our stop loss and moving it down to $77.45
10/22/11 Earnings are coming up. Readers might want to consider raising their stop loss. We are keeping ours at $79.45.

Current Target: $99.00
Current Stop loss: 81.60
Play Entered on: 10/17/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/24/11


Bank of America - BAC - close: 7.29

Comments:
01/28/12 update: BAC continue to do well adding another +3% for the week. Although if you look at the intraday chart BAC seems to be moving sideways in the $7.00-7.50 zone. The financials are arguably overbought given their rally in January. BAC is up five out of the last six weeks. If the banks do see a correction I would look for BAC to find support near $6.50.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -

AUG 29, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 8.10, option @ 1.50
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.47/ 0.48
(No stop loss on this position)

(2nd Position, bought the dip at $5.15)

NOV 23, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 5.15, option @ 0.35
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.47/ 0.48
(no stop loss on this position)

01/28/12 financials seem a bit overbought here.
01/21/12 2012 Jan. $10 calls have expired (-100%)
01/14/12 earnings are due out on Jan. 19th
01/07/12 BAC broke out past its 50-dma and the $6.00 this past week
12/17/11 expect BAC to retest the $5.10-5.00 zone.
11/23/11 BAC hits new trigger @ 5.15 to buy calls.
11/19/11 New trigger to buy calls @ $5.15 (see 2nd position)
10/03/11 Sept. 26th position stopped out at $5.75.
2012 Jan. $7.50 call @ 0.48 (-27.2%)
2013 Jan. $10 call @ 0.74 (-26%)
10/01 raising our stop loss on the Sep. 26th position to $5.75
09/24 adding 2nd position, stop loss at $5.40
09/03 no stop loss on this trade at this time.

Current Target: $12.00-to-$15.00
Current Stop loss: see details above
Play Entered on: 08/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 08/27/11


Bristol Meyers Squibb - BMY - close: 32.29

Comments:
01/28/12 update: BMY is still slowly drifting lower. The company reported earnings on Jan. 26th and missed estimates by 2 cents. BMY also missed on the revenue estimate. The stock actually spiked higher on the news but quickly reversed lower with what looks like a failed rally under its 10-dma. You can see on the daily chart that the 10-dma has been resistance for three weeks in a row. At the moment BMY has seen a -9% correction in the last four weeks.

We have a stop loss at $31.45 but more aggressive traders might want to put their stop under the $30.00 mark. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
SEP 19, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 30.53, option @ 1.20
symbol: BMY1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 1.10/ 1.13

01/03/12 planned exit, sell half, bid on 2013 Jan $35 call @ 2.58 (+115%)
12/31/11 new stop loss @ 31.45.
12/31/11 Prepare to lock in gains and sell half of our position on Tuesday morning (Jan 3rd, 2012). The 2013 Jan $35 call currently has a bid at $2.60 (a +116.6% gain).
12/16/11 BMY hit our previous exit target at $34.50, more conservative traders may want to take profits now and exit early.
12/10/11 adjust exit target to $37.50
12/03/11 reduce our two exit targets to just one at $34.50
10/22/11 BMY is due to report earnings this week on Oct. 27th. Readers may want to take profits now or prior to the report.
10/08/11 new stop loss @ 29.40
09/16 Friday's close at $30.53 is our trigger to buy calls. Our entry will be Monday morning.

Current Target: $37.50
Current Stop loss: 31.45
Play Entered on: 09/19/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/10/11


Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 3.25

Comments:
01/28/12 update: BZH continues to show relative strength and added +8% last week. Shares are currently trading under resistance in the $3.30 area. I would expect shares to keep moving sideways until its earnings report, which is due Feb. 2nd. BZH will announce before the opening bell. Wall Street is expecting a loss of 39 cents a share.

If BZH disappoints or if investors choose to sell the news then I would expect BZH to fall back toward support near $2.80 and its exponential 200-dma. If the sell-off gets really ugly then look for a drop toward the 50-dma near $2.50. We will raise our stop loss to $2.40. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss even higher or just exit now prior to the earnings report. Our call LEAP has virtually doubled (+92.8%).

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -

(stock position)
OCT 28, 2011 - entry price on BZH @ $2.12

(option position)
OCT 28, 2011 - entry price on BZH @ 2.12, option @ 0.70
symbol: BZH1319A2.5 2013 JAN $2.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.35/ 1.45

01/14/12 new stop loss @ 2.30, adjust exit target to $4.75
01/07/12 new stop loss @ 2.15
12/24/11 new stop loss @ 1.95
12/03/11 new stop loss @ 1.85
11/26/11 new stop loss at $1.75
11/15/11 BZH reports a loss of 57 cents a share, worse than expected
11/12 BZH has seen a big bounce. Cautious investors may want to take profits now before BZH reports earnings on Nov. 15th. (BZH +13.2%, option +21.4%)
10/28 trade begins: BZH opens @ $2.12
10/27 BZH meets our entry point requirement with a close over $2.05

Current Target: $4.75
Current Stop loss: 2.30
Play Entered on: 10/28/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/22/11


Cisco Systems - CSCO - close: 19.56

Comments:
01/28/12 update: The rally in CSCO has stalled with overhead resistance near the $20 level. That's not surprising and I cautioned readers that $20 was likely resistance. On a positive note the consolidation looks like a bull-flag pattern. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. CSCO is due to report earnings in about eight trading days on Feb 8th.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 28, 2011 - entry price on CSCO @ 18.28, option @ 1.68
symbol: CSCO1319A20 2013 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $1.97/2.00

01/21/12 new stop loss @ 17.20
10/29/11 new stop loss @ 16.40
10/28/11 stock opens at $18.28
10/27/11 CSCO meets our entry requirement: close at $18.44
10/22/11 Added entry to buy a close over $17.75
10/15/11 We are adjusting our entry point. Wait for a dip to $16.65
10/14/11 CSCO hit our entry point requirement for a close over $17.50.

Current Target: $21.75
Current Stop loss: 17.20
Play Entered on: 10/28/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/08/11


CSX Corp. - CSX - close: 22.76

Comments:
01/28/12 update: CSX reported earnings on Jan. 23rd and missed. The company missed both the EPS estimate and the revenue estimate. The stock sold off the next day with a gap down and drop toward $21.60 but has since recovered and filled the gap. CSX is now testing resistance near its 200-dma.

More conservative traders might want to raise their stop loss closer to the $21.00 or $21.50 level. We will move our stop to $19.95 instead. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
I do see potential resistance at the $24.00 level and the $26.75-27.00 zone. Yet the Point & Figure chart for CSX is bullish with a $33.50 target.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 14, 2011 - entry price on CSX @ 22.59, option @ 2.24
symbol: CSX1319A25 2013 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 1.47/ 1.50

- or -

NOV 14, 2011 - entry price on CSX @ 22.59, option @ 3.30
symbol: CSX1418A25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 2.46/ 2.72

01/28/12 adjust stop loss to $19.95
12/17/11 CSX is starting to bounce from support near $20. This can be used as a new entry point
11/26/11 I had cautioned readers to expect a potential dip to $20.00. CSX hit this level on Friday.

Current Target: $29.75
Current Stop loss: 19.95
Play Entered on: 11/14/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 11/12/11


The Dow Chemical Co. - DOW - close: 33.46

Comments:
01/28/12 update: DOW only rose seven cents for the week. Shares have been consolidating sideways in the $33-34 zone. After a big rally off the December lows I suspect that DOW has run out of gas. Earnings are coming up on Feb. 2nd and there is no reason to buy DOW prior to the report. More conservative traders will want to seriously consider taking profits right now, especially prior to the earnings report. The earnings announcement will be the perfect excuse to sell DOW and lock in gains. I would expect a dip back toward the $31-30 zone.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We will adjust our stop loss higher to $29.75. Let me repeat that I am expecting some profit taking after the earnings report on Feb. 2nd. Wall Street is expecting a profit of 30 cents a share.

Earlier Comments:
The Point & Figure chart for DOW is bullish with a $46 target.

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 09, 2012 - entry price on DOW @ 30.46, option @ 2.40
symbol: DOW1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 3.20/ 3.25

- or -

Jan 09, 2012 - entry price on DOW @ 30.46, option @ 2.54
symbol: DOW1418A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.86/ 3.00

01/28/12 Readers will want to seriously consider taking profits right now, prior to the earnings report on Feb. 2nd.
01/28/12 new stop loss @ 29.75
01/21/12 new stop loss @ 28.40
01/14/12 new stop loss @ 27.75
01/06/12 DOW meets our entry requirement with a close over $30.25. Plan is to buy calls on Monday morning (01/09/12).

Current Target: $39.50
Current Stop loss: 29.75
Play Entered on: 01/09/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/31/11


Enterprise Products Partners - EPD - close: 48.06

Comments:
01/28/12 update: EPD has risen to new record highs and almost hit the $50 level on Thursday. I can't find any news to explain the big volume on Thursday that was three times the normal. Nor could I find any news to account for the relative weakness and profit taking on Friday. If the profit taking continues we can look for short-term support near $46 and its 50-dma.

Readers should note that EPD is due to report earnings on Feb. 1st, prior to the opening bell. Analysts are expecting a profit of 55 cents a share. I am raising our stop loss up to $43.75 and would buy any dips near support at $44.00.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $59.00 but bear in mind that EPD doesn't normally move very fast. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for EPD is bullish with a $69 target. I am listing the 2013 calls but there are also 2014s available (with a much wider spread).

- Suggested Positions -
Nov 21, 2011 - entry price on EPD @ 45.17, option @ 1.45
symbol: EPD1319A50 2013 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.85/ 1.90

01/28/12 new stop loss @ 43.75
01/21/12 new stop loss @ 43.40
01/06/12 EPD (and PAA) both see sharp intraday dips (-5% or more)
12/31/11 2013 Jan $50 call spreads have improved significant.
12/24/11 spreads on the 2013 Jan $50 calls have widened significantly.
12/08/11 EPD gapped down on news of a 9 million share secondary price at $44.68.

Current Target: $59.00
Current Stop loss: 43.75
Play Entered on: 11/21/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 11/19/11


FedEx Corp. - FDX - close: 92.95

Comments:
01/28/12 update: FDX continues to drift higher with another weekly gain. Shares are now up four weeks in a row. Although if you study the intraday chart you can see that FDX has been struggling with resistance near the $93.50 level.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time but short-term traders could use a breakout past $93.50 as an entry point and target a run towards $99. We will raise our stop loss to $84.75. More conservative investors might want to raise their stop even higher. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for FDX is bullish with a $101 target.

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 11, 2011 - entry price on FDX @ 88.08, option @ 5.52
symbol: FDX1319A100 2013 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $ 6.60/ 6.80

01/28/12 new stop loss @ 84.75
01/21/12 new stop loss @ 83.40

Current Target: $98.00
Current Stop loss: 84.75
Play Entered on: 01/11/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/31/11


Hewlett-Packard - HPQ - close: 27.88

Comments:
01/28/12 update: HPQ's rally hit a new relative high on Monday and then shares spent the rest of the week fading lower. HPQ should find support near $27.00. More conservative investors might want to raise their stop loss closer to the $26.00 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Longer-term Trade
Sep 26, 2011 - entry price on HPQ @ 22.59, option @ 3.75
symbol: HPQ1319A25 2013 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 5.05/ 5.15
Stop Loss @ 24.75

12/03/11 new stop loss @ 24.75
11/19/11 Readers need to decide: Take profits now (+76%) or hold on and expect some volatility following HPQ's earnings report on Nov. 21st
10/31/11 scheduled exit for the remainder of our 2012 calls @ the open. Options opened at $5.40 (+100%), plus we sold half of our 2013 $25 calls, which opened at $5.70 (+52%).
10/29/11 new stop loss on 2013 calls at $23.90
10/29/11 prepare to exit remainder of 2012 position on Monday @ open
prepare to sell 1/2 (half) of 2013 position on Monday at open
10/17/11 Planned exit, sell 1/2 of 2012 position, bid @ 4.10 (+52.4%)
10/15/11 new stop loss for the 2012 position @ 22.85
10/15/11 Plan to sell 1/2 of 2012 calls on Monday
10/08/11 new stop loss (both positions) at $21.40

Current Target: 2013 call target: 32.50
Play Entered on: 09/26/11
Originally listed in New Plays: 09/24/11


Kraft Foods Inc. - KFT - close: 38.47

Comments:
01/28/12 update: KFT tagged a new multi-year high on Thursday but could not hold on to these gains. Shares settled down -20 cents for the week. You could argue that KFT is overbought given its multi-week rally. If stocks see a correction then look for support near $37 or $36. Readers may want to go ahead and take profits now.

Earlier Comments:
The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a long-term target at $49.50. KFT is normally a very slow moving stock. It will take months to make any progress. Once a position is open readers may want to turn these into calendar spreads (a.k.a. vertical spreads).

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Sep 22, 2011 - entry price on KFT @ 32.71, option @ 2.35
symbol: KFT1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 4.55/ 4.70

01/21/12 new stop loss @ 35.40
Readers may want to exit now with the call +102%
12/31/11 Investors may want to take profits now.
12/28/11 begins trading ex-dividend
12/24/11 new stop loss @ 34.25
12/03/11 new stop loss @ 33.85, adjusted exit target to $40.00
11/12/11 new stop loss @ 32.40

Current Target: $40.00
Current Stop loss: 35.40
Play Entered on: 09/22/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/17/11


Kimberly-Clark Corp. - KMB - close: 71.13

Comments:
01/28/12 update: It was not a great week for KMB. The company reported earnings on Jan. 24th. KMB missed by 2 cents and then guided lower. The stock spiked down toward technical support at its rising 100-dma and has since churned sideways. If the pull back continues then look for support near $70 or the $69.00 area, where KMB's 200-dma is rising to.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
KMB does have long-term resistance in the $73.00-73.50 area. Therefore we will only start with small (half-sized) positions. When KMB closes above $74.00 we'll reconsider adding new positions to this play. Our long-term target is $79.75 but we'll readjust it as the play progresses. The Point & Figure chart is currently suggesting a long-term target of $109. NOTE: KMB does not move very fast. Investors may want to try and maximize their returns by changing this into a vertical (a.k.a. calendar) spread.

FYI: The P&F chart's bullish target has risen from $98 to $109.

- Suggested Positions -
(half sized position)
Nov 07, 2011 - entry price on KMB @ 69.50, option @ 2.05
symbol: KMB1319A75 2013 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 1.65/ 1.75

12/24/11 New stops loss @ 68.25. KMB has broken out to all-time highs.

Current Target: $79.75
Current Stop loss: 68.25
Play Entered on: 11/07/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 11/05/11


LDK Solar Co. Ltd. - LDK - close: 4.91

Comments:
01/28/12 update: The profit taking that began two weeks ago continued into last week. Although it looks like LDK has started to reverse higher in just the last couple of sessions. Aggressive traders could buy this bounce but if you do I would consider a stop loss closer to $4.20 or $4.40 instead of our stop at $3.90.

- Suggested Positions -
(buy LDK stock)
Dec 23, 2011 - entry price on LDK @ 5.31

- or -

Dec 23, 2011 - entry price on LDK @ 5.31, option @ 0.89
symbol: LDK1319A5 2013 JAN $5 call - current bid/ask $ 0.61/ 0.87

01/14/12 new stop loss @ 3.90
01/07/12 new stop loss @ 3.60

Current Target: $ 9.00
Current Stop loss: 3.60
Play Entered on: 12/23/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/17/11


Eli Lilly - LLY - close: 39.20

Comments:
01/28/12 update: It's not looking so hot for LLY. After a two-week consolidation sideways the stock is breaking down into a bearish trend of lower highs and lower lows. LLY is now testing support near $39.00. If this level breaks then it's probably a quick drop toward the next level of support near $38.00 instead. I am raising our stop loss up to $37.75. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. LLY is due to report earnings on Jan. 31st, before the opening bell. Wall Street expects a profit of 80 cents a share.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Jan 05, 2012 - entry price on LLY @ 39.50, option @ 1.19
symbol: LLY1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 1.23/ 1.35

- or -

Jan 05, 2012 - entry price on LLY @ 39.50, option @ 2.75
symbol: LLY1418A45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 1.37/ 2.10

01/28/12 new stop loss @ 37.75

Current Target: $44.75 & 48.00
Current Stop loss: 37.40
Play Entered on: 01/05/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/17/11


Lexmark Intl. Inc. - LXK - close: 35.99

Comments:
01/28/12 update: After a midweek pull back shares of LXK surged on Friday with a +2.5% gain. The stock looks poised to breakout to new relative highs. However, investors need to be aware that LXK is due to report earnings on Jan. 31st, before the opening bell. Analysts estimates are at $1.16 a share. I am not suggesting new positions in front of earnings and I would not be surprised to see some profit taking on the news. Look for support near $34.0 or its 50-dma. More conservative traders might want to raise their stop loss.

Earlier Comments:
There is some resistance near $40 but our long-term target is $44.00. NOTE: LXK is scheduled to report earnings on January 31st, before the opening bell. More conservative traders might want to wait and see how the market reacts to LXK's results before considering new positions. FYI: The Point & Figure chart on LXK is bullish with a $51 target.

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 19, 2012 - entry price on LXK @ 35.46, option @ 3.40
symbol: LXK1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 3.30/ 3.60

Current Target: $44.00
Current Stop loss: 31.75
Play Entered on: 01/19/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/07/12


3M Co. - MMM - close: 87.46

Comments:
01/28/12 update: It was another bullish week for MMM. A better than expected earnings report on Jan. 26th helped propel the stock to new relative highs. Nimble traders might want to consider buying calls on a dip near the 10-dma or the $85.00 level.

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 19, 2012 - entry price on MMM @ 85.10, option @ 3.30
symbol: MMM1319A95 2013 JAN $95 call - current bid/ask $ 3.50/ 3.60

Current Target: $97.00
Current Stop loss: 78.90
Play Entered on: 01/19/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/03/11


Nike Inc. - NKE - close: 102.11

Comments:
01/28/12 update: NKE continues to drift higher. You could argue that the stock is short-term overbought here. If you're looking for a new entry point I'd prefer to see a new dip and bounce in the $100-99 area.

NOTE: Our call price has not moved from last week's close.

Earlier Comments:
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for NKE is bullish with a $115 target.

NOTE: 2014 calls are available but they are high-dollar options.

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 13, 2012 - entry price on NKE @ 98.39, option @ 4.95
symbol: NKE1319A110 2013 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $ 6.00/ 6.15

Current Target: $119.00
Current Stop loss: 92.25
Play Entered on: 01/13/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/24/11


ON Semiconductor Corp. - ONNN - close: 8.86

Comments:
01/28/12 update: After the breakout higher two weeks ago shares of ONNN have been stuck moving sideways. Shares have resistance at their 300-dma (near $9.15). The stock should have support at prior resistance near $8.50. One of these levels will likely get broken this week after ONNN reports earnings. Unfortunately, I can't find a confirmed earnings date but the company will probably announce in the first week of February. If I had to guess I'd look for ONNN to announce on Thursday or Friday (Feb. 2nd or 3rd). At this point we want to wait and see how the market reacts to ONNN's report before considering new bullish positions.

- Suggested (small) Positions -
Jan 19, 2012 - entry price on ONNN @ 8.96, option @ 1.00
symbol:ONNN1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 1.00/ 1.15

Current Target: $11.45
Current Stop loss: 7.70
Play Entered on: 01/19/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/10/11


Pepsico, Inc. - PEP - close: 65.81

Comments:
01/28/12 update: Uh-oh! The rally last week failed at resistance near $67.00. Is PEP forming another top? I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Should the market dip then look for PEP to retest support near its 50-dma, currently near $65.00.

FYI: PEP is due to report earnings on Feb. 9th.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Dec 27, 2011 - entry price on PEP @ 66.47, option @ 2.70
symbol: PEP1319A70 2013 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 1.65/ 1.75

01/14/12 PEP and its rivals are all showing weakness. Readers may want to raise their stop loss
12/27/11 launch positions at the open on Tuesday
12/23/11 PEP meets our entry point requirements at the closing bell.

Current Target: $71.75
Current Stop loss: 62.75
Play Entered on: 12/27/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/10/11


QUALCOMM Inc. - QCOM - close: 57.79

Comments:
01/28/12 update: QCOM rallied to new six-month highs and reversed. Shares still managed to eke out a small gain for the week but the action last week was bearish. Earnings are coming up on February 1st. QCOM will report after the closing bell and Wall Street expects a profit of 90 cents a share. I am not suggesting new positions ahead of the earnings report. If the stock corrects then look for a dip toward the $55-54 zone.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
NOV 23, 2011 - entry price on QCOM @ 52.50, option @ 4.90
symbol: QCOM1319A60 2013 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 5.20/ 5.30

01/07/12 new stop loss @ 51.45. Investors may want to exit early. The worry of potential accounting risks have cast a shadow over QCOM.
11/23/11 QCOM hits our trigger @ 52.50

Current Target: $74.50
Current Stop loss: 51.45
Play Entered on: 11/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/05/11


Reynolds American Inc. - RAI - close: 39.42

Comments:
01/28/12 update: Hmm... the trading in RAI has definitely taken a turn for the worst. As a matter of fact almost all of the tobacco stocks (MO, PM, and LO) are underperforming. MO just reported earnings that beat by a penny but investors sold the news anyway. Unfortunately for us shares of RAI have broken down under support at its 50-dma two weeks ago and under the $40.00 level this past week. Now shares are testing the simple 100-dma and look poised to drop toward the 200-dma near $38.25 soon.

More conservative investors will want to seriously consider an early exit right now given this relative weakness and bearish breakdown in RAI. I'm not ready to give up just yet. We will leave our stop loss at $37.85 for now.

- Suggested Positions -
Nov 18, 2011 - entry price on RAI @ 40.02, option @ 2.00
symbol: RAI1319A42.5 2013 JAN $42.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.10/ 1.20

01/28/12 RAI and the rest of the tobacco stocks are underperforming. Readers might want to exit early now given RAI's relative weakness.

Current Target: $49.00
Current Stop loss: 37.85
Play Entered on: 11/18/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/22/11


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 47.85

Comments:
01/28/12 update: SBUX delivered a strong earnings report this past week. The company beat Wall Street's estimates by 2 cents and beat the revenue estimate. SBUX management raised their 2012 guidance as well. Yet after a multi-week rally off its late November lows SBUX didn't move much on the news. The initial reaction was to sell but SBUX bounced near short-term support in the $47.00 area. I am still concerned that SBUX is overbought and I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

I am raising our stop loss up to $42.40.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for PEP is bullish with a long-term $75 target.

NOTE: 2014 calls are also available.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Dec 27, 2011 - entry price on SBUX @ 45.40, option @ 4.00
symbol: SBUX1319A50 2013 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 4.15/ 4.25

01/28/12 new stop loss at $42.40
12/27/11 launch positions at the open on Tuesday

Current Target: $55.00
Current Stop loss: 42.40
Play Entered on: 12/27/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/10/11


Teva Pharmaceuticals - TEVA - close: 44.91

Comments:
01/28/12 update: TEVA has spent several days trying to get past the $46.00 but finally ran out of steam. The stock dipped toward short-term support at $44.00 on Friday before paring its losses. On the weekly chart the action last week has painted a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. Odds seem to be growing for a deeper pull back in TEVA. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Let's wait and see if shares correct toward the $43-42 area first. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for TEVA is bullish with a $57 target.

NOTE: TEVA is due to report earnings on Feb. 15th.

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 19, 2012 - entry price on TEVA @ 45.40, option @ 2.49
symbol: TEVA1319A50 2013 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.86/ 1.91

- or -

Jan 19, 2012 - entry price on TEVA @ 45.40, option @ 4.40
symbol: TEVA1418A50 2014 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 3.45/ 3.90

Current Target: $54.00
Current Stop loss: 39.75
Play Entered on: 01/19/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/14/12


Verizon Communications - VZ - close: 37.21

Comments:
01/28/12 update: Uh-oh! VZ is sinking and appears to be taking on water pretty fast. Shares already looked vulnerable prior to its earnings report on Jan. 24th. The company reported results that missed by a penny. The stock spiked down on this news, breaking support near $38.00 and its 50-dma. Now shares are sinking toward the next level of support at $37 and its 200-dma.

More conservative investors will want to strongly consider an early exit right now. I am not suggesting new positions but I am expecting a bounce near $37.00.

- Suggested Positions -
Dec 23, 2011 - entry price on VZ @ 39.42, option @ 2.17
symbol: VZ1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 1.04/ 1.07

- or -

Dec 23, 2011 - entry price on VZ @ 39.42, option @ 2.87
symbol: VZ1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 1.80/ 1.90

01/28/12 readers may want to consider an early exit immediately
01/24/12 VZ reported earnings and missed by a penny. Shares broke down on this news.

Current Target: $45.00
Current Stop loss: 36.75
Play Entered on: 12/23/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/17/11


U.S. Steel Corp. - X - close: 29.88

Comments:
01/28/12 update: It turned out to be a bullish week for X. The stock broke through resistance near $29.00. Shares are currently flirting with a bullish breakout past the $30.00 level and its 150-dma. The trend of higher lows is definitely bullish. However, this could all change if X disappoints. The company is due to report earnings on Jan. 31st, before the opening bell. Analysts are expecting X to deliver a loss of -83 cents a share.

I am not suggesting new positions prior to the earnings report. Conservative investors might want to exit early now to lock in a +10% gain. Personally, we are hanging on although this could be a volatile week. If the stock sells off I would look for support near $27 and its 50-dma.

We will raise our stop loss to $24.75.

Earlier Comments:
This is an aggressive trade because X can be volatile and we have a wide stop loss. That's why we're using small positions to limit our risk.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Nov 09, 2011 - entry price on X @ 25.50, option @ 5.00
symbol: X1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 5.50/ 5.60

01/28/12 new stop loss @ 24.75
01/14/12 new stop loss @ 23.60
12/03/11 new stop loss at $21.90
11/09/11 Trade opened at $25.50 (small positions)

Current Target: $37.50
Current Stop loss: 24.75
Play Entered on: 11/09/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/05/11


Exxon Mobil - XOM - close: 85.83

Comments:
01/28/12 update: Earnings out of the energy sector have not been that great thus far. Rival CVX reported on Friday and missed by 36 cents. Of course I am not surprised to see profit taking in XOM with shares hovering under resistance near $88 and its 2011 highs. This week it's XOM's turn. The company reports earnings on Jan. 31st, prior to the opening bell. Wall Street is looking for a profit of $1.97 a share. If XOM does see more profit taking we can look for support near $84 or $82. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
There is potential resistance at $85 and $87.50 but our long-term target is $94.00.

- Suggested Positions -
Dec 22, 2011 - entry price on XOM @ 83.56, option @ 4.63
symbol: XOM1319A90 2013 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 4.40/ 4.50

- or -

Dec 22, 2011 - entry price on XOM @ 83.56, option @ 6.25
symbol: XOM1418A95 2014 JAN $95 call - current bid/ask $ 5.35/ 5.55

01/28/12 readers may want to raise their stop prior to earnings
01/21/12 new stop loss at $79.40
01/07/12 new stop loss @ 77.90

Current Target: $94.00
Current Stop loss: 79.40
Play Entered on: 12/22/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/03/11


CLOSED Plays


CurrencyShares Euro ETF - FXE - close: 131.63

Comments:
01/28/12 update: Our FXE put play did not last very long. The beleaguered euro currency finally produced an oversold bounce. Yet there were so many shorts that the rebound continued. Then the U.S. Federal Reserve announced this past week that they were keeping rates near zero for the next two years (into 2014) and hinted at further quantitative easing. That helped push the U.S. dollar lower and the euro rallied in response in spite of all the unsolved problems in Europe.

Let's be clear about the situation in Europe. Greece still hasn't agreed to the details on their debt haircut announced months ago. Meanwhile bond yields in Portugal are soaring and well above sustainable levels. The latest data from Spain shows unemployment rising back toward 23%. The long, drawn out EU nightmare is not over yet. I do expect the FXE to hit new relative lows. I suggest keeping it on your watch list for a new bearish entry point, maybe on a failed rally near the $135 area.

Our recent trade was stopped out on Jan. 26th when the FXE hit our stop at $131.25. The bid on our 2013 Jan $120 put was trading at $3.15.

- Suggested Positions - (This is a bearish PUT trade)

Jan 06, 2012 - entry price on FXE @ 127.01, option @ 5.60
symbol: FXE1319M120 2013 JAN $120 PUT - exit $3.15 (-43.7%)

01/26/12 stopped out at $131.25.

Chart of FXE:

Current Target: $120.00
Current Stop loss: 131.25
Play Entered on: 01/06/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/31/11


Sherwin-Williams Co. - SHW - close: 97.20

Comments:
01/28/12 update: Target achieved.

A week ago we were concerned that SHW was overbought and might see some profit taking so we planned to go ahead and take profits by selling half at the open on Monday (Jan 23rd). SHW opened a bit down on Jan. 23rd at $95.67 and the bid on our 2013 Jan. $100 call was at $5.75 (+47.4%).

The stock spiked higher on Thursday morning following its earnings report. The funny thing is that SHW actually missed estimates by 9 cents. Yet the stock spiked to $99.60. Our target was hit at $99.00. The bid on our call hit $7.50 (+92.3%).

- Suggested Positions -
Dec 23, 2011 - entry price on SHW @ 88.92, option @ 3.90
symbol: SHW1319A100 2013 JAN $100 call - exit $7.50 (+92.3%)

01/26/12 final exit target hit @ 99.00, bid @ 7.50* (+92.3%)
*option did not trade at the time our exit was hit. this is an estimate
01/23/12 take profits at the open. Bid @ $5.75 (+47.4%)
01/21/12 sell half on Monday, Jan. 23rd at the open
01/21/12 new stop loss @ 87.75
01/14/12 new stop loss @ 86.75, adjust exit target to $99.00
01/07/12 new stop loss @ 84.40

Chart of SHW:

Current Target: $99.00
Current Stop loss: 86.75
Play Entered on: 12/23/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/03/11