Editor's Note:

NTES has been added to the active trade list.


Closed Plays


HPQ hit our stop loss.


Play Updates


Archer-Daniels-Midland Company - ADM - close: 31.64

Comments:
03/03/12 update: ADM spent the week consolidating sideways under short-term resistance near $31.80. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. I'd wait for a dip or a bounce near the $30.50-30.00 zone before considering new bullish positions.

Earlier Comments:
The P&F chart is bullish with a $40 target. We are aiming for $37.75. We want to keep our new position size small to limit our exposure here. Start with half your normal position size or less.

- Suggested (small) Positions -
Feb 21, 2011 - entry price on ADM @ 31.31, option @ 1.74
symbol: ADM1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 1.67/ 1.72

02/21/12 trade opened on Tuesday @ 31.31
02/18/12 start with small positions to limit our exposure.
02/17/12 ADM meets our entry point requirements with a close over $31.25. Open positions the next day (Feb. 21st).
02/11/12 adjust entry trigger to wait for close over $31.25
FYI: 2014 calls are also available.

Current Target: $37.75
Current Stop loss: 28.40
Play Entered on: 02/21/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/28/12


Allergan Inc. - AGN - close: 89.24

Comments:
03/03/12 update: It proved to be a bullish week for AGN. Early on the stock rallied toward resistance and its 2012 highs near $90.00. The last couple of days AGN has been consolidating sideways under the $90 level. If the stock market cooperates I would expect AGN to breakout higher. If not then shares might see support near its 100-dma or the 200-dma.

Earlier Comments:
Option spreads are wide for these LEAPS. We want to keep our position size pretty small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 17, 2011 - entry price on AGN @ 85.46, option @ 5.10
symbol: AGN1319A100 2013 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $ 2.85/ 3.50

02/02/12 earnings in-line but guided lower for 2012
01/28/12 earnings are due on Feb. 2nd. Readers might want to raise their stop or consider some sort of hedge prior to the report.
12/24/11 new stop loss @ 81.60
12/10/11 spreads on our 2013 calls are getting wider!
11/19/11 Taking an aggressive stance on our stop loss and moving it down to $77.45
10/22/11 Earnings are coming up. Readers might want to consider raising their stop loss. We are keeping ours at $79.45.

Current Target: $99.00
Current Stop loss: 81.60
Play Entered on: 10/17/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/24/11


Akamai Technologies - AKAM - close: 36.30

Comments:
03/03/12 update: The correction in AKAM continues. This should not surprise readers here. We've been expecting a pull back. I am still expecting a drop into the $35-34 zone. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 10, 2012 - entry price on AKAM @ 37.60, option @ 5.40
symbol:AKAM1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 4.15/ 4.30

02/10/12 trade is opened on Friday morning
02/09/12 AKAM gapped higher in reaction to strong earnings news. The stock closed above our trigger at $35.25.

Current Target: $44.00
Current Stop loss: 30.75
Play Entered on: 02/10/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/04/12


Bank of America - BAC - close: 8.13

Comments:
03/03/12 update: BAC recovered off its Monday morning lows but spent most of the week churning sideways in the $8.00-8.20 zone. By Friday's closing bell BAC posted a gain for the week but bigger picture the stock has been chopping sideways for three weeks. If the market does see a true correction I would expect a dip in BAC toward the $7.00 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -

AUG 29, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 8.10, option @ 1.50
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.64/ 0.65
(No stop loss on this position)

(2nd Position, bought the dip at $5.15)

NOV 23, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 5.15, option @ 0.35
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.64/ 0.65
(no stop loss on this position)

01/28/12 financials seem a bit overbought here.
01/21/12 2012 Jan. $10 calls have expired (-100%)
01/14/12 earnings are due out on Jan. 19th
01/07/12 BAC broke out past its 50-dma and the $6.00 this past week
12/17/11 expect BAC to retest the $5.10-5.00 zone.
11/23/11 BAC hits new trigger @ 5.15 to buy calls.
11/19/11 New trigger to buy calls @ $5.15 (see 2nd position)
10/03/11 Sept. 26th position stopped out at $5.75.
2012 Jan. $7.50 call @ 0.48 (-27.2%)
2013 Jan. $10 call @ 0.74 (-26%)
10/01 raising our stop loss on the Sep. 26th position to $5.75
09/24 adding 2nd position, stop loss at $5.40
09/03 no stop loss on this trade at this time.

Current Target: $12.00-to-$15.00
Current Stop loss: see details above
Play Entered on: 08/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 08/27/11


Bristol Meyers Squibb - BMY - close: 32.59

Comments:
03/03/12 update: BMY is virtually unchanged for the week. Traders did buy the dip on Thursday near $32.00 and created a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern (on a short-term basis) but Friday failed to show any follow through. Big picture BMY still has a long-term trend of higher lows and higher highs. At the moment I am not suggesting new bullish positions but a close over its 50-dma might change my mind.

- Suggested Positions -
SEP 19, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 30.53, option @ 1.20
symbol: BMY1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 1.08/ 1.12

02/11/12 adjust stop loss to $30.90
01/03/12 planned exit, sell half, bid on 2013 Jan $35 call @ 2.58 (+115%)
12/31/11 new stop loss @ 31.45.
12/31/11 Prepare to lock in gains and sell half of our position on Tuesday morning (Jan 3rd, 2012). The 2013 Jan $35 call currently has a bid at $2.60 (a +116.6% gain).
12/16/11 BMY hit our previous exit target at $34.50, more conservative traders may want to take profits now and exit early.
12/10/11 adjust exit target to $37.50
12/03/11 reduce our two exit targets to just one at $34.50
10/22/11 BMY is due to report earnings this week on Oct. 27th. Readers may want to take profits now or prior to the report.
10/08/11 new stop loss @ 29.40
09/16 Friday's close at $30.53 is our trigger to buy calls. Our entry will be Monday morning.

Current Target: $37.50
Current Stop loss: 30.90
Play Entered on: 09/19/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/10/11


Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 3.22

Comments:
03/03/12 update: Is the correction in the homebuilders finally over? The stock is down three weeks in a row. Yet if you look at the daily or intraday chart you can see that BZH has essentially consolidated sideways for the last eight days in a row. A close back above the $3.40 level would be encouraging.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -

(stock position)
OCT 28, 2011 - entry price on BZH @ $2.12

(option position)
OCT 28, 2011 - entry price on BZH @ 2.12, option @ 0.70
symbol: BZH1319A2.5 2013 JAN $2.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.20/ 1.40

02/11/12 new stop loss @ 2.75
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 2.60
01/14/12 new stop loss @ 2.30, adjust exit target to $4.75
01/07/12 new stop loss @ 2.15
12/24/11 new stop loss @ 1.95
12/03/11 new stop loss @ 1.85
11/26/11 new stop loss at $1.75
11/15/11 BZH reports a loss of 57 cents a share, worse than expected
11/12 BZH has seen a big bounce. Cautious investors may want to take profits now before BZH reports earnings on Nov. 15th. (BZH +13.2%, option +21.4%)
10/28 trade begins: BZH opens @ $2.12
10/27 BZH meets our entry point requirement with a close over $2.05

Current Target: $4.75
Current Stop loss: 2.75
Play Entered on: 10/28/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/22/11


Ciena Corp. - CIEN - close: 14.48

Comments:
03/03/12 update: Ouch! The correction on shares of CIEN continues. The stock broke down under the $15.00 level and under both its 200-dma and 50-dma this past week. Shares are off -15% from its high two weeks ago. The next level of support is the $14.00 level. Nimble traders could buy calls on a bounce off $14 but wait until after the earnings report.

CIEN is due to report earnings on March 7th before the opening bell. Analysts are expecting a loss of 4 cents a share. The company already warned several days ago so there is a chance the stock could see a relief rally.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $21.75. CIEN could benefit from a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 34% of the 75.9 million-share float.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 09, 2012 - entry price on CIEN @ 16.66, option @ 2.89
symbol: CIEN1319A17.50 2013 JAN $17.50 call - current bid/ask $1.64/1.70

03/03/12 Earnings are coming up on March 7th
02/21/12 CIEN issues a revenue warning

Current Target: $21.75
Current Stop loss: 13.75
Play Entered on: 02/09/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/04/12


Cisco Systems - CSCO - close: 19.76

Comments:
03/03/12 update: It looks like the correction in CSCO has begun. You could argue the highs in February mark a bearish double top. Odds are pretty good the correction could pull CSCO into the $18.50-18.00 zone.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 28, 2011 - entry price on CSCO @ 18.28, option @ 1.68
symbol: CSCO1319A20 2013 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $1.82/1.85

02/04/12 new stop loss @ 17.75
01/21/12 new stop loss @ 17.20
10/29/11 new stop loss @ 16.40
10/28/11 stock opens at $18.28
10/27/11 CSCO meets our entry requirement: close at $18.44
10/22/11 Added entry to buy a close over $17.75
10/15/11 We are adjusting our entry point. Wait for a dip to $16.65
10/14/11 CSCO hit our entry point requirement for a close over $17.50.

Current Target: $21.75
Current Stop loss: 17.75
Play Entered on: 10/28/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/08/11


The Dow Chemical Co. - DOW - close: 34.20

Comments:
03/03/12 update: I am surprised that DOW did not see further declines this past week. Traders bought the dip twice near $33.25 and remain inside its February trading range. While I still expect a correction lower it's possible that shares my continue to consolidate sideways. If DOW does correct look for a dip toward $31-30.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 09, 2012 - entry price on DOW @ 30.46, option @ 2.40
symbol: DOW1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 3.20/ 3.30

- or -

Jan 09, 2012 - entry price on DOW @ 30.46, option @ 2.54
symbol: DOW1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.90/ 3.00

02/11/12 adjust stop loss to $29.45. Readers may want to take profits now.
02/02/12 missed earnings estimates by five cents
01/28/12 Readers will want to seriously consider taking profits right now, prior to the earnings report on Feb. 2nd.
01/28/12 new stop loss @ 29.75
01/21/12 new stop loss @ 28.40
01/14/12 new stop loss @ 27.75
01/06/12 DOW meets our entry requirement with a close over $30.25. Plan is to buy calls on Monday morning (01/09/12).

Current Target: $39.50
Current Stop loss: 29.45
Play Entered on: 01/09/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/31/11


Enterprise Products Partners - EPD - close: 52.29

Comments:
03/03/12 update: EPD continues to drift higher with its bullish trend of higher lows. If the market cooperates we could see EPD breakout to new highs past $53.00. On the other hand if the market finally corrects, and it's overdue for a pullback, then look for EPD to dip toward the $50 area.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $59.00 but bear in mind that EPD doesn't normally move very fast.

- Suggested Positions -
Nov 21, 2011 - entry price on EPD @ 45.17, option @ 1.45
symbol: EPD1319A50 2013 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 3.60/ 3.90

02/18/12 new stop loss @ 46.75
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 44.75
01/28/12 new stop loss @ 43.75
01/21/12 new stop loss @ 43.40
01/06/12 EPD (and PAA) both see sharp intraday dips (-5% or more)
12/31/11 2013 Jan $50 call spreads have improved significant.
12/24/11 spreads on the 2013 Jan $50 calls have widened significantly.
12/08/11 EPD gapped down on news of a 9 million share secondary price at $44.68.

Current Target: $59.00
Current Stop loss: 46.75
Play Entered on: 11/21/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 11/19/11


FedEx Corp. - FDX - close: 90.78

Comments:
03/03/12 update: FDX actually delivered a gain for the week. Is the correction over? We don't know the answer yet. Traders did buy the dip twice at FDX's rising 50-dma. Yet at the same time shares are still building a bearish trend of lower highs. I am still concerned that the market is overbought and due for a correction. If the market does correct we can look for FDX to dip toward the $86-85 zone. I hate to do it but I think our stop loss at $85.75 is too high for this long-term trade. We'll adjust it back down to $84.45. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 11, 2011 - entry price on FDX @ 88.08, option @ 5.52
symbol: FDX1319A100 2013 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $ 5.20/ 5.35

03/03/12 tweaking our stop loss and moving it lower to $84.45
02/18/12 caution: FDX has produced a bearish reversal on the weekly chart
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 85.75
01/28/12 new stop loss @ 84.75
01/21/12 new stop loss @ 83.40

Current Target: $98.00
Current Stop loss: 84.45
Play Entered on: 01/11/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/31/11


iShares China 25 Index ETF - FXI - close: 40.27

Comments:
03/03/12 update: The FXI posted a gain for the week but this was just a fluke of where it closed on Friday. Shares of this Chinese ETF have been consolidating sideways the last few days. Traders did buy the dip on Monday morning near its rising 30-dma.

The stock tried to breakout past $40.75 again but failed on Wednesday. I would wait for a rally past $40.75 before considering new bullish positions.

Earlier Comments:
There is a growing expectation that the Chinese government will start to fuel growth in an effort to avoid a hard landing. The most recent data listed GDP growth at under 9%, the lowest reading in 10 quarters. Our target for the FXI is $49.50.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 06, 2012 - entry price on FXI @ 39.80, option @ 1.81
symbol: FXI1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 1.75/ 1.82

02/06/12 FXI gapped open lower at $39.80.
02/04/12 FXI met our entry point requirement at the close on Friday. Open positions on Monday, Feb. 6th.

Current Target: $49.50
Current Stop loss: 35.75
Play Entered on: 02/06/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/21/12


Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 26.92

Comments:
03/03/12 update: INTC produced a gain for the week. The stock also produced a new lower high near $27.30. Shares have been churning sideways for multiple weeks now. Readers may want to wait for a dip or a bounce near $25.00 before considering new bullish positions.

Our long-term target is $34.00. The P&F chart is bullish with a $31.50 target. We want to keep our initial position size small to limit our risk (start with half your normal trade size or smaller).

- Suggested (small, half-sized) Positions -
Feb 21, 2011 - entry price on INTC @ 27.34, option @ 1.30
symbol: INTC1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 1.04/ 1.06

- or -

Feb 21, 2011 - entry price on INTC @ 27.34, option @ 2.11
symbol: INTC1418a30 2014 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 2.06/ 2.14

02/21/12 INTC opened at $27.34.
02/18/12 start with small positions to limit our exposure.

Current Target: $34.00
Current Stop loss: 24.75
Play Entered on: 02/21/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/11/12


Kraft Foods Inc. - KFT - close: 38.25

Comments:
03/03/12 update: KFT ended the week with a small gain. Unfortunately shares also set new lower lows in its four-week consolidation lower. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. Should the stock market correct lower we could see KFT drop toward its 100-dma near $36.50 or prior resistance near $36.00. More conservative traders may want to lock in gains now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a long-term target at $49.50. KFT is normally a very slow moving stock. It will take months to make any progress. Once a position is open readers may want to turn these into calendar spreads (a.k.a. vertical spreads).

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Sep 22, 2011 - entry price on KFT @ 32.71, option @ 2.35
symbol: KFT1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 4.20/ 4.30

02/04/12 new stop loss @ 35.90
01/21/12 new stop loss @ 35.40
Readers may want to exit now with the call +102%
12/31/11 Investors may want to take profits now.
12/28/11 begins trading ex-dividend
12/24/11 new stop loss @ 34.25
12/03/11 new stop loss @ 33.85, adjusted exit target to $40.00
11/12/11 new stop loss @ 32.40

Current Target: $40.00
Current Stop loss: 35.90
Play Entered on: 09/22/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/17/11


Kimberly-Clark Corp. - KMB - close: 72.35

Comments:
03/03/12 update: It was a bullish week for KMB but the stock closed off its best levels. Shares saw a spike above $73.00 before profit taking on Thursday pulled KMB lower. Helping fuel the move higher was news that KMB's board of directors had approve an increase in the dividend to 74 cents a share, up from 70 cents. KMB now has an annual yield of 4.1%.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
KMB does have long-term resistance in the $73.00-73.50 area. Therefore we will only start with small (half-sized) positions. When KMB closes above $74.00 we'll reconsider adding new positions to this play. Our long-term target is $79.75 but we'll readjust it as the play progresses. The Point & Figure chart is currently suggesting a long-term target of $109.

- Suggested Positions -
(half sized position)
Nov 07, 2011 - entry price on KMB @ 69.50, option @ 2.05
symbol: KMB1319A75 2013 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 1.80/ 1.90

12/24/11 New stops loss @ 68.25. KMB has broken out to all-time highs.

Current Target: $79.75
Current Stop loss: 68.25
Play Entered on: 11/07/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 11/05/11


LDK Solar Co. Ltd. - LDK - close: 5.56

Comments:
03/03/12 update: Warning! The action in LDK this past week was bearish. Previously we thought worries about a major cut in Germany subsidies for the solar industry had already been factored into the market but now there are new worries about changes to Germany subsidies affecting the solar business.

The action in LDK's stock price was bearish with a failed rally pattern on Tuesday and four declines in a row. LDK ended the week with a -6.2% loss. The 50-dma or 200-dma might offer some technical support but I suspect LDK would test the $5.00 level on any significant market weakness. We have a stop loss at $4.75. Keep in mind that LDK is due to report earnings sometime in the next two to three weeks. The actual date is unconfirmed.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
(buy LDK stock)
Dec 23, 2011 - entry price on LDK @ 5.31

- or -

Dec 23, 2011 - entry price on LDK @ 5.31, option @ 0.89
symbol: LDK1319A5 2013 JAN $5 call - current bid/ask $ 1.15/ 1.28

02/11/12 new stop loss @ 4.75
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 4.35
01/14/12 new stop loss @ 3.90
01/07/12 new stop loss @ 3.60

Current Target: $ 9.00
Current Stop loss: 4.75
Play Entered on: 12/23/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/17/11


Eli Lilly - LLY - close: 39.48

Comments:
03/03/12 update: LLY posted a gain for the week with traders buying the dip on Monday morning. Shares got a little boost on Friday thanks to an analyst upgrade. Recent gains, while less than inspiring, appear to have broken the six-week trend line of lower highs. The situation for LLY seems to be improving but I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Jan 05, 2012 - entry price on LLY @ 39.50, option @ 1.19
symbol: LLY1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 1.31/ 1.37

- or -

Jan 05, 2012 - entry price on LLY @ 39.50, option @ 2.75
symbol: LLY1418A45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 1.95/ 2.00

01/28/12 new stop loss @ 37.75

Current Target: $44.75 & 48.00
Current Stop loss: 37.75
Play Entered on: 01/05/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/17/11


Las Vegas Sands - LVS - close: 56.38

Comments:
03/03/12 update: LVS continues to outperform. The stock is up seven out of the last eight weeks. This past week saw shares breakout past resistance near $54.00 and rally to new three-year highs. The trend is clearly up but LVS is looks overbought. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The Point & Figure chart is bullish and has seen its target rise from $69 to $72. Our long-term target is $69.00.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 06, 2012 - entry price on LVS @ 51.35, option @ 4.40
symbol: LVS1319A60 2013 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 6.25/ 6.40

02/06/12 LVS gapped open lower at $51.35
02/04/12 LVS met our entry point requirement at the close on Friday. Open positions on Monday, Feb. 6th.

Current Target: $69.00
Current Stop loss: 47.45
Play Entered on: 02/06/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/28/12


Lexmark Intl. Inc. - LXK - close: 35.95

Comments:
03/03/12 update: Hmm....we'd better buckle our seat belt. LXK lost about $1.30 for the week. This is the second weekly decline in a row. Two weeks ago the action created a bearish reversal pattern on the weekly chart. This past week confirms the reversal. I cautioned readers to expect a pullback toward the simple 50-dma (nearing $35.60). If the market finally sees a widespread correction lower then we might see LXK dip toward the $34.00 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
There is some resistance near $40 but our long-term target is $44.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart on LXK is bullish with a $51 target.

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 19, 2012 - entry price on LXK @ 35.46, option @ 3.40
symbol: LXK1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.90/ 3.60

02/18/12 new stop loss @ 33.75
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 32.75

Current Target: $44.00
Current Stop loss: 33.75
Play Entered on: 01/19/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/07/12


3M Co. - MMM - close: 87.52

Comments:
03/03/12 update: MMM has spent the entire month of February consolidating sideways in the $86.50-88.50 range. During that time the 50-dma has crossed up and over its 200-dma, which is normally a bullish development. At the same time the major indices have broken out to new multi-year highs while MMM failed to participate, this is a bearish. I suspect that if the market does breakdown we'll see MMM dip toward the $83.00-82.00 area.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 19, 2012 - entry price on MMM @ 85.10, option @ 3.30
symbol: MMM1319A95 2013 JAN $95 call - current bid/ask $ 3.25/ 3.55

02/04/12 new stop loss @ 81.75

Current Target: $97.00
Current Stop loss: 81.75
Play Entered on: 01/19/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/03/11


Marvell Technology - MRVL - close: 15.07

Comments:
03/03/12 update: MRVL posted another decline for the week. Shares are now down three out of the last four weeks. The breakdown under its 50-dma is bearish but shares seem to be holding near the $15.00 level and its 200-ema for now. Unfortunately I am concerned that if the major indices do correct lower we'll see MRVL continue to drop.

More conservative traders may want to exit early now and just cut their losses. More aggressive traders could risk letting MRVL dip toward the simple 200-dma, which was support in the past, but that means you'll need to lower your stop loss so it's under $14.50.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 03, 2012 - entry price on MRVL @ 16.74, option @ 2.14
symbol:MRVL1319A17.5 2013 JAN $17.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.18/ 1.23

02/23/12 MRVL reported earnings
02/11/12 adjust stop loss down to $14.75

Current Target: $21.75
Current Stop loss: 14.75
Play Entered on: 02/03/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/28/12


Motorola Solutions, Inc. - MSI - close: 50.84

Comments:
03/03/12 update: MSI posted a gain for the week. Traders bought the dip on Monday morning and pushed shares past $50.00. MSI spent the next three days consolidating sideways. An analyst upgrade on Friday helped shares outperform the major indices.

While MSI is showing strength I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 17, 2012 - entry price on MSI @ 49.35, option @ 2.27
symbol: MSI1319A55 2013 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $ 2.59/ 2.77

02/18/12 new stop loss @ 45.75
02/17/12 trades opens on Friday morning at $49.35
02/16/12 MSI meets our requirement to open positions
02/04/12 if triggered, use a stop loss at $43.95
01/28/12 MSI underperformed as investors sold the stock following its earnings report. If MSI doesn't improve this week we'll drop it as a candidate.

Current Target: $64.50
Current Stop loss: 45.75
Play Entered on: 02/17/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/10/11


Nike Inc. - NKE - close: 108.74

Comments:
03/03/12 update: NKE continues to rally and shares set new record highs. I am raising our stop loss to $99.40. More conservative traders may want to go ahead and take some money off the table and raise their stop loss higher.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 13, 2012 - entry price on NKE @ 98.39, option @ 4.95
symbol: NKE1319A110 2013 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $ 9.00/ 9.20

03/03/12 new stop loss @ 99.40
02/18/12 new stop loss @ 96.75
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 94.75

Current Target: $119.00
Current Stop loss: 99.40
Play Entered on: 01/13/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/24/11


NetEase.com - NTES - close: 52.52

Comments:
03/03/12 update: NTES, our new watch list candidate last week, has hit our entry point. The plan was to wait for shares to close over $51.50 and then buy calls the next day. The stock surged higher on Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday's move was the breakout and NTES closed at $53.31. Our traded opened on Wednesday's gap down at $52.74.

The action last week is bullish but if you're worried about a market correction you could wait for NTES to retest the 50-dma before considering new positions.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $64.00. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $68 target. I want to remind readers that NTES can be volatile so we want to start with small positions (at least half your normal trade or smaller).

- Suggested (Small) Positions -
Feb 29, 2012 - entry price on NTES @ 52.74, option @ 4.70
symbol:NTES1319A60 2013 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 4.10/ 5.10

Chart of NTES:

Current Target: $ 64.50
Current Stop loss: 46.50
Play Entered on: 02/29/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/25/12


ON Semiconductor Corp. - ONNN - close: 8.75

Comments:
03/03/12 update: The SOX semiconductor index looks vulnerable here. This past week saw the SOX produce a new lower high. The sector could be setting up for a correction lower soon. Of course ONNN is already in correction mode. The stock is down three weeks in a row. Shares really underperformed on Friday with a -3.2% decline.

ONNN should find support somewhere near its 50-dma, 200-dma, or prior resistance near $8.50. I am not suggesting new positions at this time but a bounce off the $8.50 level would look like a new entry point.

- Suggested (small) Positions -
Jan 19, 2012 - entry price on ONNN @ 8.96, option @ 1.00
symbol:ONNN1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.75/ 0.85

02/11/12 new stop loss @ 8.35
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 7.90

Current Target: $11.45
Current Stop loss: 8.35
Play Entered on: 01/19/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/10/11


QUALCOMM Inc. - QCOM - close: 62.43

Comments:
03/03/12 update: After a ten-week rally shares of QCOM finally saw a pullback. The stock is dipping toward prior resistance near $62.00, which is new short-term support. If the market sees a real correction I would expect QCOM to dip toward the $60-58 zone.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
NOV 23, 2011 - entry price on QCOM @ 52.50, option @ 4.90
symbol: QCOM1319A60 2013 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 7.45/ 7.55

02/18/12 new stop loss @ 55.75
02/11/12 new stop loss @ 54.75
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 53.75
01/07/12 new stop loss @ 51.45. Investors may want to exit early. The worry of potential accounting risks have cast a shadow over QCOM.
11/23/11 QCOM hits our trigger @ 52.50

Current Target: $74.50
Current Stop loss: 54.75
Play Entered on: 11/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/05/11


Reynolds American Inc. - RAI - close: 42.07

Comments:
03/03/12 update: The bounce off RAI's late January lows continues. Shares managed to rally past major resistance at $42.00 and close at new all-time highs. Recent strength in tobacco stocks may have gotten a boost from a legal win. A federal judge ruled that the U.S. government can not force the cigarette makers to put graphic images on their packaging since it violates the company's free speech. Prosecutors are appealing. In the meantime RAI has reaffirmed its long-term up trend.

- Suggested Positions -
Nov 18, 2011 - entry price on RAI @ 40.02, option @ 2.00
symbol: RAI1319A42.5 2013 JAN $42.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.70/ 1.85

01/28/12 RAI and the rest of the tobacco stocks are underperforming. Readers might want to exit early now given RAI's relative weakness.

Current Target: $49.00
Current Stop loss: 37.85
Play Entered on: 11/18/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/22/11


Rowan Companies - RDC - close: 35.94

Comments:
03/03/12 update: Ouch! It was a rough week for RDC. Investors decided to sell the news when RDC reported earnings on Feb. 28th. The company beat estimates by four cents and beat the revenue estimate. Gross margins did see a drop, which may have been the catalyst for the sell-off.

If the broader market does see a correction it could push RDC toward support near $35. I suspect our stop loss at $34.75 is just a little too tight. We'll adjust our stop loss to $33.70 so it's just under the January 30th, 2012 low.

A bounce in the $35.00 area could be used as a new bullish entry point.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 03, 2012 - entry price on RDC @ 37.54, option @ 4.30
symbol: RDC1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.95/ 3.20

03/03/12 stop loss might be too tight, adjust to $33.70
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 34.75

Current Target: $44.50
Current Stop loss: 34.75
Play Entered on: 02/03/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/28/12


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 48.89

Comments:
03/03/12 update: SBUX was slowly drifting higher this past week, emphasis on slowly. Shares are still trading under the all-time highs set three weeks ago. While SBUX has essentially consolidated sideway the last three weeks I would not be surprised to see a correction toward the 100-dma. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Dec 27, 2011 - entry price on SBUX @ 45.40, option @ 4.00
symbol: SBUX1319A50 2013 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 4.30/ 4.45

01/28/12 new stop loss at $42.40
12/27/11 launch positions at the open on Tuesday

Current Target: $55.00
Current Stop loss: 42.40
Play Entered on: 12/27/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/10/11


Teva Pharmaceuticals - TEVA - close: 45.25

Comments:
03/03/12 update: Traders bought the dip near its 50-dma and 200-ema. TEVA ended the week with a gain but remains under resistance in the $46.00-46.50 zone. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is still bullish with a $65 target.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 19, 2012 - entry price on TEVA @ 45.40, option @ 2.49
symbol: TEVA1319A50 2013 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.95/ 2.02

- or -

Jan 19, 2012 - entry price on TEVA @ 45.40, option @ 4.40
symbol: TEVA1418A50 2014 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 3.90/ 4.10

02/04/12 new stop loss @ 41.40

Current Target: $54.00
Current Stop loss: 41.40
Play Entered on: 01/19/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/14/12


UnitedHealth Group - UNH - close: 55.84

Comments:
03/03/12 update: UNH is still drifting higher but momentum seems to be slowing down. Traders bought the dip at short-term support near the 10-dma on Friday. If the market rallies again we'll probably see UNH breakout past short-term resistance near $56.00. However, readers may want to wait for a new dip or bounce off the rising 50-dma before considering new bullish positions.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 15, 2012 - entry price on UNH @ 54.53, option @ 3.25
symbol: UNH1319A60 2013 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 3.40/ 3.55

- or -

Feb 15, 2012 - entry price on UNH @ 54.53, option @ 5.00
symbol: UNH1418A60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 5.85/ 6.25

Current Target: $63.00
Current Stop loss: 49.45
Play Entered on: 02/15/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/11/12


Verizon Communications - VZ - close: 38.67

Comments:
03/03/12 update: VZ is slowly building on its bullish trend of higher lows. Friday saw a breakout over technical resistance at the 50-dma. I am growing less concerned that the action over the past five weeks is a bear-flag pattern. However, I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Dec 23, 2011 - entry price on VZ @ 39.42, option @ 2.17
symbol: VZ1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 1.36/ 1.41

- or -

Dec 23, 2011 - entry price on VZ @ 39.42, option @ 2.87
symbol: VZ1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.24/ 2.35

01/28/12 readers may want to consider an early exit immediately
01/24/12 VZ reported earnings and missed by a penny. Shares broke down on this news.

Current Target: $45.00
Current Stop loss: 36.75
Play Entered on: 12/23/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/17/11


U.S. Steel Corp. - X - close: 27.51

Comments:
03/03/12 update: The situation does not look good for X. Basic material and steel-related stocks have been underperforming. The group looks poised for more declines. X is already testing support near $27 and its 100-dma. More conservative traders may want to abandon ship right here. The bearish trend of lower highs in X is suggesting the stock will see another move lower soon.

Our stop loss remains at $26.40. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
This is an aggressive trade because X can be volatile and we have a wide stop loss. That's why we're using small positions to limit our risk.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Nov 09, 2011 - entry price on X @ 25.50, option @ 5.00
symbol: X1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 3.70/ 3.80

03/03/12 readers may want to exit early now!
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 26.40
01/28/12 new stop loss @ 24.75
01/14/12 new stop loss @ 23.60
12/03/11 new stop loss at $21.90
11/09/11 Trade opened at $25.50 (small positions)

Current Target: $37.50
Current Stop loss: 26.40
Play Entered on: 11/09/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/05/11


Exxon Mobil - XOM - close: 86.33

Comments:
03/03/12 update: February's mid-month bounce off its 50-dma has stalled under prior resistance near $88.00. Bears could argue that XOM is forming a double top pattern. If XOM breaks down under its 50-dma I would expect a dip toward $84 near the bottom of its bullish channel or a dip toward prior resistance near $82.00.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Shares could see a little volatility this week following its analyst meeting on March 8th.

- Suggested Positions -
Dec 22, 2011 - entry price on XOM @ 83.56, option @ 4.63
symbol: XOM1319A90 2013 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 4.35/ 4.45

- or -

Dec 22, 2011 - entry price on XOM @ 83.56, option @ 6.25
symbol: XOM1418A95 2014 JAN $95 call - current bid/ask $ 5.30/ 5.50

03/03/12 bears could argue that XOM is forming a potential double top pattern with the peak in late January and late February
02/11/12 recent action looks like a bearish H&S pattern with an $80 target.
01/28/12 readers may want to raise their stop prior to earnings
01/21/12 new stop loss at $79.40
01/07/12 new stop loss @ 77.90

Current Target: $94.00
Current Stop loss: 79.40
Play Entered on: 12/22/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/03/11


CLOSED Plays


Hewlett-Packard - HPQ - close: 25.32

Comments:
03/03/12 update: It's been a rough two weeks for HPQ. The sell-off started with its earnings report on February 22nd. Shares have since broken down through multiple layers of support. Our stop loss was hit at $25.75 on February 29th.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Longer-term Trade
Sep 26, 2011 - entry price on HPQ @ 22.59, option @ 3.75
symbol: HPQ1319A25 2013 JAN $25 call - exit $3.25 (-13.3%)
Stop Loss @ 25.75

02/29/12 stop loss hit at $25.75
02/22/12 HPQ reported earnings with a revenue miss and warned for the second quarter.
02/18/12 adjusted exit target to $33.75.
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 25.75
12/03/11 new stop loss @ 24.75
11/19/11 Readers need to decide: Take profits now (+76%) or hold on and expect some volatility following HPQ's earnings report on Nov. 21st
10/31/11 scheduled exit for the remainder of our 2012 calls @ the open. Options opened at $5.40 (+100%), plus we sold half of our 2013 $25 calls, which opened at $5.70 (+52%).
10/29/11 new stop loss on 2013 calls at $23.90
10/29/11 prepare to exit remainder of 2012 position on Monday @ open
prepare to sell 1/2 (half) of 2013 position on Monday at open
10/17/11 Planned exit, sell 1/2 of 2012 position, bid @ 4.10 (+52.4%)
10/15/11 new stop loss for the 2012 position @ 22.85
10/15/11 Plan to sell 1/2 of 2012 calls on Monday
10/08/11 new stop loss (both positions) at $21.40

Chart of HPQ:

Current Target: 2013 call target: 33.75
Play Entered on: 09/26/11
Originally listed in New Plays: 09/24/11