Editor's Note:

We are still in the midst of Q1 earnings season. Unfortunately earnings results tend to worsen as we move deeper into earnings season. That means we are likely to see more bearish reactions to the news. Investors will want to stay defensive, especially as we move into the "sell in May" time frame.

Please note that we do want to take some profits here in a few trades. I am suggesting we sell at least half of our EPD trade on Monday morning. We want to exit both the KFT and KMB trades completely on Monday at the opening bell to lock in gains.


Closed Plays


BRK.B was closed as planned. QCOM was stopped out.


Play Updates


Archer-Daniels-Midland Company - ADM - close: 31.08

Comments:
04/28/12 update: Investors bought the dip on Monday morning when ADM slipped toward support near $30.00 and its 100-dma and 200-ema. The stock looks poised to breakout over short-term resistance near $31.25 but I'm not expecting a lot of movement on Monday. ADM will likely drift sideways until it reports earnings on Tuesday morning. It's the earnings news on Tuesday that will determine ADM's direction this week. More conservative traders might want to adjust their stop loss higher but if ADM disappoints I would expect a dip toward its 200-dma near $29.25.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our new position size small to limit our exposure here. Start with half your normal position size or less.

- Suggested (small) Positions -
Feb 21, 2011 - entry price on ADM @ 31.31, option @ 1.74
symbol: ADM1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 1.10/ 1.15

04/28/12 ADM is scheduled to report earnings on May 1st.
02/21/12 trade opened on Tuesday @ 31.31
02/18/12 start with small positions to limit our exposure.
02/17/12 ADM meets our entry point requirements with a close over $31.25. Open positions the next day (Feb. 21st).
02/11/12 adjust entry trigger to wait for close over $31.25
FYI: 2014 calls are also available.

Current Target: $37.75
Current Stop loss: 28.40
Play Entered on: 02/21/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/28/12


Allergan Inc. - AGN - close: 96.61

Comments:
04/28/12 update: Attention! I am adjusting our exit strategy. AGN is less than three points from our $99 target to sell half and the option is only at breakeven. I am removing the $99 target. We'll stick to the $109.00 target to exit positions. However, I do want to warn you that the $100.00 level could be round-number, psychological resistance. Plus, the AGN is due to report earnings on May 2nd, before the opening bell. Traders could choose to sell the news. Thus, more conservative traders will want to either exit in the $99-100 zone - or - exit prior to the May 2nd earnings report.

The newsletter has a multi-month time frame so we're going to hold over the report. If shares do see a sell-off I would look for support at the 50-dma or at the $90.00 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Option spreads are wide for these LEAPS. We want to keep our position size pretty small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 17, 2011 - entry price on AGN @ 85.46, option @ 5.10
symbol: AGN1319A100 2013 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $ 5.10/ 5.40

04/28/12 Exit strategy adjustment! We are not selling half at $99.00. Instead we'll aim for $109.00 to exit positions. See tonight's note for details on alternative exits
03/31/12 adjusted exit strategy. Sell half at $99.00 and sell the remainder at $109.00
03/10/12 new stop loss at $84.50
02/02/12 earnings in-line but guided lower for 2012
01/28/12 earnings are due on Feb. 2nd. Readers might want to raise their stop or consider some sort of hedge prior to the report.
12/24/11 new stop loss @ 81.60
12/10/11 spreads on our 2013 calls are getting wider!
11/19/11 Taking an aggressive stance on our stop loss and moving it down to $77.45
10/22/11 Earnings are coming up. Readers might want to consider raising their stop loss. We are keeping ours at $79.45.

Current Target:$109.00
Current Stop loss: 84.50
Play Entered on: 10/17/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/24/11


Akamai Technologies - AKAM - close: 33.18

Comments:
04/28/12 update: AKAM does not look healthy. The stock had rallied to multi-week highs on April 25th. Then the company reported that evening and beat earnings estimates by three cents with 41 cents a share. Revenues were also a beat at $319 million for the quarter. Unfortunately the company warned that gross margins and earnings could sink in the second quarter and the CEO said he was planning to leave. The stock was crushed on the warning news and plunged from $39 to $33 on Thursday. Shares found support at its exponential 200-dma. This move down breaks several layers of support and the trend of higher lows. Currently our trade is still open with a stop loss at $31.75. More conservative traders may want to exit early now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
FEB 10, 2012 - entry price on AKAM @ 37.60, option @ 5.40
symbol:AKAM1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.18/ 2.24

2nd Position (enter on Monday, March 12th)
MAR 12, 2012 - entry price on AKAM @ 36.80, option @ 4.45
symbol:AKAM1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.18/ 2.24

04/25/12 AKAM reported earnings after the close, and warned that Q2 earnings and margins could contract. Shares plunged the next day
03/12/12 2nd position opened. AKAM @ 36.80. option @ $4.45
03/10/12 new stop loss @ 31.75
03/10/12 consider adding a second position on Monday morning,
let's keep our position size small.
02/10/12 trade is opened on Friday morning
02/09/12 AKAM gapped higher in reaction to strong earnings news. The stock closed above our trigger at $35.25.

Current Target: $44.00
Current Stop loss: 31.75
Play Entered on: 02/10/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/04/12


Bank of America - BAC - close: 8.24

Comments:
04/28/12 update: I am concerned with BAC. The stock has been underperforming its peers in the financial sector this past week. Shares dipped to support near $8.00 on Monday and spent the rest of the week drifting sideways. The stock has seen a five-week correction lower. There is overhead resistance at $8.50 now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our concerns that BAC would see a pullback from the $10 level have come true.

Earlier Comments:
Currently we do not have a specific exit target. The plan has been to exit in the $12.00-15.00 zone. We still have months left on our 2013 calls so we're not in a rush to exit just yet. However, more conservative traders may want to take some money off the table early since odds of a pullback are pretty high. You could exit now and buy calls again on a dip.

- Suggested Positions -

AUG 29, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 8.10, option @ 1.50
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.54/ 0.55
(No stop loss on this position)

(2nd Position, bought the dip at $5.15)

NOV 23, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 5.15, option @ 0.35
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.54/ 0.55
(no stop loss on this position)

03/17/12 BAC has broken out from its multi-week trading range. Broken resistance near $8.30 should be new support.
01/28/12 financials seem a bit overbought here.
01/21/12 2012 Jan. $10 calls have expired (-100%)
01/14/12 earnings are due out on Jan. 19th
01/07/12 BAC broke out past its 50-dma and the $6.00 this past week
12/17/11 expect BAC to retest the $5.10-5.00 zone.
11/23/11 BAC hits new trigger @ 5.15 to buy calls.
11/19/11 New trigger to buy calls @ $5.15 (see 2nd position)
10/03/11 Sept. 26th position stopped out at $5.75.
2012 Jan. $7.50 call @ 0.48 (-27.2%)
2013 Jan. $10 call @ 0.74 (-26%)
10/01 raising our stop loss on the Sep. 26th position to $5.75
09/24 adding 2nd position, stop loss at $5.40
09/03 no stop loss on this trade at this time.

Current Target: $12.00-to-$15.00
Current Stop loss: see details above
Play Entered on: 08/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 08/27/11


Bristol Meyers Squibb - BMY - close: 33.31

Comments:
04/28/12 update: Hmm... technical indicators on BMY's daily chart are starting to turn bearish. The company reported earnings on April 26th and traders have been selling the news. Earnings and revenues were in-line with Wall Street estimates. Just reporting "in-line" is not normally good enough to inspire new buying interest. We should expect a dip back toward technical support at the 150-dma (approaching $33) and possibly a dip toward $32.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
SEP 19, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 30.53, option @ 1.20
symbol: BMY1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 1.07/ 1.10

02/11/12 adjust stop loss to $30.90
01/03/12 planned exit, sell half, bid on 2013 Jan $35 call @ 2.58 (+115%)
12/31/11 new stop loss @ 31.45.
12/31/11 Prepare to lock in gains and sell half of our position on Tuesday morning (Jan 3rd, 2012). The 2013 Jan $35 call currently has a bid at $2.60 (a +116.6% gain).
12/16/11 BMY hit our previous exit target at $34.50, more conservative traders may want to take profits now and exit early.
12/10/11 adjust exit target to $37.50
12/03/11 reduce our two exit targets to just one at $34.50
10/22/11 BMY is due to report earnings this week on Oct. 27th. Readers may want to take profits now or prior to the report.
10/08/11 new stop loss @ 29.40
09/16 Friday's close at $30.53 is our trigger to buy calls. Our entry will be Monday morning.

Current Target: $37.50
Current Stop loss: 30.90
Play Entered on: 09/19/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/10/11


Colgate-Palmolive Co. - CL - close: 98.41

Comments:
04/28/12 update: We were expecting the $100 level to act as round-number resistance. Sure enough the stock struggled to get past this level. The company reported earnings on the 26th. Results were in-line with expectations and the stock did see a little profit taking on the news but nothing out of the ordinary. More conservative traders may want to take profits now. I would not be surprised to see CL correction toward $96 or even $94 on a market drop. Our long-term target remains $109.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 16, 2012 - entry price on CL @ 95.48, option @ 2.92
symbol: CL1319A100 2013 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $3.90/4.05

- or -

MAR 16, 2012 - entry price on CL @ 95.48, option @ 5.57
symbol: CL1418A100 2014 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $6.40/7.00

04/26/12 CL reports earnings that are in-line with estimates.
03/31/12 CL is performing well but expect resistance at the $100 level and a possible pullback.

Current Target: $109.00
Current Stop loss: 89.00
Play Entered on: 03/16/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/10/12


Cisco Systems - CSCO - close: 19.98

Comments:
04/28/12 update: CSCO's rival Juniper Networks (JNPR) reported earnings last week. JNPR's results were three cents better than expected but the company issued weak guidance going forward. This weighed on both stocks. CSCO tagged a new relative low on the 25th before bouncing back. Now CSCO is testing round-number resistance at $20 and could see technical resistance at its 50-dma. I remain very cautious on CSCO the stock is likely to meander sideways until it reports earnings on May 9th.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 28, 2011 - entry price on CSCO @ 18.28, option @ 1.68
symbol: CSCO1319A20 2013 JAN $20 call - current bid/ask $1.68/1.70

03/31/12 adjust exit target to $23.00
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 17.75
01/21/12 new stop loss @ 17.20
10/29/11 new stop loss @ 16.40
10/28/11 stock opens at $18.28
10/27/11 CSCO meets our entry requirement: close at $18.44
10/22/11 Added entry to buy a close over $17.75
10/15/11 We are adjusting our entry point. Wait for a dip to $16.65
10/14/11 CSCO hit our entry point requirement for a close over $17.50.

Current Target: $23.00
Current Stop loss: 17.75
Play Entered on: 10/28/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/08/11


The Dow Chemical Co. - DOW - close: 34.72

Comments:
04/28/12 update: Shares of DOW had broken out to a new multi-month high on the 25th. The next morning DOW reported earnings that beat by a penny but revenues were a miss. Guidance was generally positive but traders sold the news anyway and DOW gapped down on Thursday morning. You could argue that shares of DOW are seeing a bearish divergence between price and the daily chart's MACD indicator. On the weekly chart the action last week looks like a failed rally at the $36.00 level. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 09, 2012 - entry price on DOW @ 30.46, option @ 2.40
symbol: DOW1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 2.98/ 3.05

- or -

Jan 09, 2012 - entry price on DOW @ 30.46, option @ 2.54
symbol: DOW1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.71/ 2.80

04/26/12 DOW reported earnings one cent above expectations but revenues were a miss.
04/14/12 DOW produced a new lower low, last week. The correction may not be over yet.
02/11/12 adjust stop loss to $29.45. Readers may want to take profits now.
02/02/12 missed earnings estimates by five cents
01/28/12 Readers will want to seriously consider taking profits right now, prior to the earnings report on Feb. 2nd.
01/28/12 new stop loss @ 29.75
01/21/12 new stop loss @ 28.40
01/14/12 new stop loss @ 27.75
01/06/12 DOW meets our entry requirement with a close over $30.25. Plan is to buy calls on Monday morning (01/09/12).

Current Target: $39.50
Current Stop loss: 29.45
Play Entered on: 01/09/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/31/11


eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 41.23

Comments:
04/28/12 update: EBAY managed to hold support at the top of its gap near $39.00 last week. As the market bounced EBAY climbed back toward its 2012 highs. If the market does correct we should expect EBAY to fill the gap. Since our exit target is $44.50 readers may want to go ahead and start taking profits now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Mar 12, 2012 - entry price on EBAY @ 36.36, option @ 2.85
symbol: EBAY1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 5.10/ 5.20

- or -

Mar 12, 2012 - entry price on EBAY @ 36.36, option @ 5.11
symbol: EBAY1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 7.95/ 8.10

04/28/12 EBAY closed near its highs. Readers may want to take profits now. The bid on the 2013 call is at $5.10 (+78.9%), and the bid on the 2014 call is at $7.95 (+55.5%)
04/21/12 new stop loss at $34.90
04/18/12 EBAY reports better than expected earnings and provides stronger 2012 earnings guidance. The stock spikes higher.
04/07/12 EBAY could see a dip toward $34.00
03/31/12 action this past week looks short-term bearish. Look for a pullback

Current Target: $44.50
Current Stop loss: 34.90
Play Entered on: 03/12/12
Originally listed in the New Plays 03/10/12


Enterprise Products Partners - EPD - close: 51.34

Comments:
04/28/12 update: EPD underperformed the market this past week. Shares appear to be correcting after an eight-day bounce. I'm concerned this could be a double top in EPD. Earnings are coming up on May 2nd and might offer traders a chance to sell the news. Thus, I'm suggesting we act defensively and go ahead and sell half or our position at the open on Monday morning. Currently the bid on our call is at $2.95 (+103%). More conservative traders may want to exit entirely right here.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $59.00 but bear in mind that EPD doesn't normally move very fast.

- Suggested Positions -
Nov 21, 2011 - entry price on EPD @ 45.17, option @ 1.45
symbol: EPD1319A50 2013 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.95/ 3.10

04/28/12 plan to sell half of our position on Monday morning. Current option bid is $2.95 (+103%)
04/21/12 readers may want to take profits now. The bid on our call option is at $3.10 (+113%)
02/18/12 new stop loss @ 46.75
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 44.75
01/28/12 new stop loss @ 43.75
01/21/12 new stop loss @ 43.40
01/06/12 EPD (and PAA) both see sharp intraday dips (-5% or more)
12/31/11 2013 Jan $50 call spreads have improved significant.
12/24/11 spreads on the 2013 Jan $50 calls have widened significantly.
12/08/11 EPD gapped down on news of a 9 million share secondary price at $44.68.

Current Target: $59.00
Current Stop loss: 46.75
Play Entered on: 11/21/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 11/19/11


Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 28.38

Comments:
04/28/12 update: The SOX semiconductor sector index delivered a nice bounce last week but the SOX remains in a bearish trend of lower highs and lower lows at least for now. INTC looks a lot healthier but it's worth noting that the three-day bounce in INTC stalled at the top of its gap down from the 17th-18th (a.k.a. overhead resistance).

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested (small, half-sized) Positions -
Feb 21, 2011 - entry price on INTC @ 27.34, option @ 1.30
symbol: INTC1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 1.22/ 1.23

- or -

Feb 21, 2011 - entry price on INTC @ 27.34, option @ 2.11
symbol: INTC1418a30 2014 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 2.40/ 2.47

02/21/12 INTC opened at $27.34.
02/18/12 start with small positions to limit our exposure.

Current Target: $34.00
Current Stop loss: 24.75
Play Entered on: 02/21/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/11/12


Kraft Foods Inc. - KFT - close: 39.40

Comments:
04/28/12 update: Investors have a couple of big decisions to make. Do you exit now, exit ahead of earnings, or raise your exit target and aim higher?

KFT has seen a big bounce off its April lows. This past week produced a breakout past resistance near $39.00. Big picture shares look poised to keep climbing even though the $40.00 level should be round-number resistance (and has been resistance in the past). Further complicating matters is KFT's earnings report is coming up on May 3rd. Will investors sell the news or will the results fuel more gains?

Aggressive traders may want to stay long and adjust their exit target to somewhere in the $42-44 zone. I am suggesting we go ahead and exit early now on Monday morning to lock in a gain.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Sep 22, 2011 - entry price on KFT @ 32.71, option @ 2.35
symbol: KFT1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 4.90/ 5.05

04/28/12 prepare to exit early on Monday morning to lock in a gain. Current bid on our call is at $4.90 (+108.5%)
03/31/12 short-term action is bearish. readers may want to exit early
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 35.90
01/21/12 new stop loss @ 35.40
Readers may want to exit now with the call +102%
12/31/11 Investors may want to take profits now.
12/28/11 begins trading ex-dividend
12/24/11 new stop loss @ 34.25
12/03/11 new stop loss @ 33.85, adjusted exit target to $40.00
11/12/11 new stop loss @ 32.40

Current Target: $40.00
Current Stop loss: 35.90
Play Entered on: 09/22/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/17/11


Kimberly-Clark Corp. - KMB - close: 78.72

Comments:
04/28/12 update: We have been aiming for the $79.75 mark. KMB almost made it there last week but the stock stalled twice near $79.20. There is still a good chance that KMB will spike toward $80.00. however, I am suggesting we go ahead and exit positions on Monday morning to lock in a gain. We can reconsider new bullish positions if we see KMB bounce from support in the $74-75 area again.

- Suggested Positions -
(half sized position)
Nov 07, 2011 - entry price on KMB @ 69.50, option @ 2.05
symbol: KMB1319A75 2013 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 5.00/ 5.20

04/28/12 prepare to exit on Monday morning. current bid on our call is at $5.00 (+143.9%)
04/21/12 new stop loss @ 69.95
03/31/12 KMB is testing major resistance near $74.00
12/24/11 New stops loss @ 68.25. KMB has broken out to all-time highs.

Current Target: $79.75
Current Stop loss: 69.95
Play Entered on: 11/07/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 11/05/11


Coca-Cola Company - KO - close: 76.63

Comments:
04/28/12 update: KO delivered another very bullish week with shares surging to new multi-year highs. Helping fuel this rally was news that KO's Board of Directors voted to recommend a two-for-one stock split. KO began trading back in 1919 and has split its stock ten times since then. This would be the 11th stock split and the first split in sixteen years. The split is subject to shareholder approval to increase the number of authorized shares from 5.6 billion to 11.2 billion. Normally firms split their stock when they feel it's gotten too expensive for average investors to purchase it. It's also consider a sign of confidence by management. The vote by shareholders will take place on July 10th and the split will occur in August.

We will plan to exit positions prior to the actual split taking place. More conservative traders may want to go ahead and take profits now given the big run up in our option values. KO is currently short-term overbought. I would expect a dip back toward prior resistance in the $74.50 area, which should be new support.

Please note our new stop loss at $69.75. More conservative traders may want to consider a stop closer to $73.00 instead.

- Suggested Positions (start with small positions) -
Mar 29, 2012 - entry price on KO @ 72.35, option @ 3.60
symbol: KO1418A75 2014 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 5.90/ 6.00

04/28/12 new stop loss @ 69.75
More conservative traders may want to take profits now, bid @ $5.90
04/25/12 KO's BoD has recommended a 2-for-1 split subject to shareholder approval in July. Split to occur in August.

Current Target: $87.00
Current Stop loss: 69.75
Play Entered on: 03/29/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/17/12


Eli Lilly - LLY - close: 41.31

Comments:
04/28/12 update: Shares of LLY have surged higher following its earnings report on the 25th. The company beat Wall Street's estimates by 12 cents and raised guidance. This has powered a rally past resistance in the $40.50 area. The stock is headed for resistance near $42.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Jan 05, 2012 - entry price on LLY @ 39.50, option @ 1.19
symbol: LLY1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 1.50/ 1.54

- or -

Jan 05, 2012 - entry price on LLY @ 39.50, option @ 2.75
symbol: LLY1418A45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 1.95/ 2.09

04/25/12 LLY beat earnings estimates by 12c and raised guidance
03/17/12 LLY's close over $40.00 looks like a new bullish entry point
01/28/12 new stop loss @ 37.75

Current Target: $44.75 & 48.00
Current Stop loss: 37.75
Play Entered on: 01/05/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/17/11


Las Vegas Sands - LVS - close: 55.87

Comments:
04/28/12 update: LVS reported on the 25th. The company beat estimates by 12 cents. Revenues also came in better than expected. Investors decided to sell the news on Thursday. The stock is down two weeks in a row and the close under the 50-dma is bearish. I am expecting a correction lower into the $52.50-50.00 zone.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 06, 2012 - entry price on LVS @ 51.35, option @ 4.40
symbol: LVS1319A60 2013 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 5.50/ 5.60

04/28/12 expecting a correction lower into the $52.50-50.00 zone
04/16/12 Sold half of our position. Bid opened at $7.45 (+69.3%)
04/14/12 Prepare to sell half on Monday morning at the open. Current bid on the 2013 Jan $60 call is $8.30 (+88.6%).
02/06/12 LVS gapped open lower at $51.35
02/04/12 LVS met our entry point requirement at the close on Friday. Open positions on Monday, Feb. 6th.

Current Target: $69.00
Current Stop loss: 49.75
Play Entered on: 02/06/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/28/12


3M Co. - MMM - close: 89.39

Comments:
04/28/12 update: MMM reported earnings on the 24th. The company beat estimates and raised its guidance. This news produced a spike higher but shares spent the rest of the week moving sideways and consolidating gains. MMM is now hovering under resistance at the $90.00 level. A breakout past this level should signal a run towards its 2011 highs in the $95-97 area.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 19, 2012 - entry price on MMM @ 85.10, option @ 3.30
symbol: MMM1319A95 2013 JAN $95 call - current bid/ask $ 2.75/ 2.82

04/14/12 Readers will want to seriously consider an early exit right now. The short-term trend for MMM is down.
03/17/12 new stop loss @ 83.75
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 81.75

Current Target: $97.00
Current Stop loss: 83.75
Play Entered on: 01/19/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/03/11


Motorola Solutions, Inc. - MSI - close: 50.76

Comments:
04/28/12 update: MSI reported earnings on the 25th and beat on both the top and bottom line. Guidance was in-line with prior numbers. The stock soared on the earnings news with a rally back above resistance at $50.00 and its 50-dma. Now shares are retreating from the next level of resistance near $52. More conservative traders may want to move their stop loss closer to the $48 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 17, 2012 - entry price on MSI @ 49.35, option @ 2.27
symbol: MSI1319A55 2013 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $ 1.89/ 1.87

02/18/12 new stop loss @ 45.75
02/17/12 trades opens on Friday morning at $49.35
02/16/12 MSI meets our requirement to open positions
02/04/12 if triggered, use a stop loss at $43.95
01/28/12 MSI underperformed as investors sold the stock following its earnings report. If MSI doesn't improve this week we'll drop it as a candidate.

Current Target: $64.50
Current Stop loss: 45.75
Play Entered on: 02/17/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/10/11


NetEase.com - NTES - close: 60.00

Comments:
04/28/12 update: NTES managed to tag a new all-time high on Thursday morning with the rally to $61.45. Currently shares are hovering near resistance at the $60.00 level. The stock looks poised to move higher. Earnings should be coming up in a couple of weeks but we do not have a confirmed date yet. The unconfirmed date is May 16th.

More conservative traders might want to consider moving their stops closer to the $54-55 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $64.00. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $68 target. I want to remind readers that NTES can be volatile so we want to start with small positions (at least half your normal trade or smaller).

- Suggested (Small) Positions -
Feb 29, 2012 - entry price on NTES @ 52.74, option @ 4.70
symbol:NTES1319A60 2013 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 7.50/ 7.80

03/24/12 new stop loss @ 49.40
Nimble traders may want to take profits now (current bid $7.80, +66%) and they re-enter positions on a correction.

Current Target: $ 64.50
Current Stop loss: 49.40
Play Entered on: 02/29/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/25/12


Reynolds American Inc. - RAI - close: 40.58

Comments:
04/28/12 update: We were not expecting RAI to report earnings until the 25th but the company announced on the 24th instead. RAI missed estimates by two cents and revenues came in below expectations. This earnings miss sparked the sell-off down toward its exponential 200-dma. Fortunately there was no follow through on the breakdown but now broken support near $41.00 and its 100-dma is new overhead resistance.

Looking at RAI's weekly chart you could argue the up trend is breaking or at least very fragile. More conservative traders may want to start scaling back positions, especially if RAI rolls over under the $41 level soon. I would have thought RAI was a safe-haven for investors given its 5.4% annual dividend yield but nothing is bullet-proof. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Nov 18, 2011 - entry price on RAI @ 40.02, option @ 2.00
symbol: RAI1319A42.5 2013 JAN $42.50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.00/ 1.10

04/24/12 RAI reports earnings and misses. Shares spike lower!
03/10/12 another close over $42.50 could be used as a bullish entry point.
01/28/12 RAI and the rest of the tobacco stocks are underperforming. Readers might want to exit early now given RAI's relative weakness.

Current Target: $49.00
Current Stop loss: 37.85
Play Entered on: 11/18/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/22/11


Teva Pharmaceuticals - TEVA - close: 45.63

Comments:
04/28/12 update: TEVA is still consolidating sideways under resistance near $46.00. Fortunately shares have a bullish trend of higher lows and look poised to breakout higher soon. Everything could change depending on TEVA's earnings results. The company is set to report on May 9th. I am not suggesting new positions prior to earnings.

- Suggested Positions -
Jan 19, 2012 - entry price on TEVA @ 45.40, option @ 2.49
symbol: TEVA1319A50 2013 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 1.49/ 1.55

- or -

Jan 19, 2012 - entry price on TEVA @ 45.40, option @ 4.40
symbol: TEVA1418A50 2014 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $ 3.60/ 3.65

03/24/12 new stop loss @ 41.80
03/24/12 TEVA is still underperforming. Consider an early exit
03/17/12 TEVA is underperforming. Readers may want to exit early or raise their stop loss.
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 41.40

Current Target: $54.00
Current Stop loss: 41.80
Play Entered on: 01/19/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/14/12


UnitedHealth Group - UNH - close: 57.92

Comments:
04/28/12 update: It was a volatile week for UNH. Shares gapped down on Thursday possibly due to news that healthcare companies will pay out over $1 billion in rebates to consumers due to current healthcare law. I suspect the gap down is a reaction to a disappointing earnings report from rival Aetna (AET) who missed earnings due to rising costs. Fortunately traders bought the dip in UNH near its 50-dma (yet again) but you could argue UNH has formed a bearish double top with the two peaks under $60 this month. A close under support near $56.00 would add some weight to the double top idea. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 15, 2012 - entry price on UNH @ 54.53, option @ 3.25
symbol: UNH1319A60 2013 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 3.85/ 3.95

- or -

Feb 15, 2012 - entry price on UNH @ 54.53, option @ 5.00
symbol: UNH1418A60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 7.05/ 7.25

04/19/12 UNH reported earnings that beat estimates and raised guidance
03/31/12 new stop loss @ 52.75. Adjust exit to $64.00
03/24/12 action this past week has turned bearish. expecting a correction toward the $50 area.

Current Target: $64.00
Current Stop loss: 52.75
Play Entered on: 02/15/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/11/12


Verizon Communications - VZ - close: 40.24

Comments:
04/28/12 update: Shares of VZ have produced a very impressive two-week rally. Now investors have a decision to make. The stock has closed the week right at resistance and it looks very short-term overbought. Odds of a pullback are probably pretty high but long-term the trend is still higher. If you're feeling cautious on stocks then I suggest you consider taking some money off the table here or exiting early to minimize any losses. VZ has seen a lot more volatility than I expected over the last several months.

I'm still longer-term bullish here but I would not be surprised to see VZ give up half of its recent gains. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Don't forget that on April 30th VZ should see a gap down of about 50 cents as it begins trading ex-dividend.

- Suggested Positions -
Dec 23, 2011 - entry price on VZ @ 39.42, option @ 2.17
symbol: VZ1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 1.90/ 1.91

- or -

Dec 23, 2011 - entry price on VZ @ 39.42, option @ 2.87
symbol: VZ1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.84/ 2.89

04/05/12 VZ began trading ex-div for its upcoming April 30th dividend
03/10/12 VZ is starting to see some positive momentum higher
01/28/12 readers may want to consider an early exit immediately
01/24/12 VZ reported earnings and missed by a penny. Shares broke down on this news.

Current Target: $45.00
Current Stop loss: 36.75
Play Entered on: 12/23/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/17/11


Exxon Mobil - XOM - close: 86.12

Comments:
04/28/12 update: XOM reported earnings on the 26th and missed estimates by nine cents. Revenues also came in lighter than expected. Yet in spite of the miss shares of XOM did not see much reaction. There was a gap down Thursday morning but shares have bouncing off that low.

Bigger picture you could argue that XOM is forming a very large bull-flag consolidation pattern over the last four months. A breakout past resistance near $88.00 would be very bullish. I am not suggesting new positions at this time but a close over $88.00 might change my mind.

- Suggested Positions -
Dec 22, 2011 - entry price on XOM @ 83.56, option @ 4.63
symbol: XOM1319A90 2013 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 2.83/ 2.89

- or -

Dec 22, 2011 - entry price on XOM @ 83.56, option @ 6.25
symbol: XOM1418A95 2014 JAN $95 call - current bid/ask $ 4.00/ 4.15

04/26/12 XOM missed earnings estimates by 9 cents
04/14/12 XOM has broken down from its 3-month trading range.
03/17/12 XOM has bounced off the bottom of its bullish channel.
03/03/12 bears could argue that XOM is forming a potential double top pattern with the peak in late January and late February
02/11/12 recent action looks like a bearish H&S pattern with an $80 target.
01/28/12 readers may want to raise their stop prior to earnings
01/21/12 new stop loss at $79.40
01/07/12 new stop loss @ 77.90

Current Target: $94.00
Current Stop loss: 79.40
Play Entered on: 12/22/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/03/11


CLOSED Plays


Berkshire Hathaway (B shares) - BRK.B - close: 80.56

Comments:
04/28/12 update: A week ago Friday BRK.B looked ominously poised to breakdown after reversing at $81 a few days earlier. The market's widespread drop on Monday pushed BRK.B toward $78.00 but it didn't break this support. Since then both the S&P 500 and BRK.B have bounced four days in a row. We had already decided last weekend to exit early on Monday morning at the open. The gap down was just bad luck.

- Suggested (Small) Positions -
MAR 14, 2012 - entry price on BRK.B @ 80.69, option @ 3.90
symbol: BRKB1319A85 2013 JAN $85 call - exit early @ 2.65 (-32.0%)

04/23/12 early exit at the open
04/21/12 prepare to exit this position on Monday at the open.
04/14/12 The breakdown under $80.00 is bearish. Readers may want to exit early right now to cut our losses.

Chart of BRK.B:

Current Target: $94-98
Current Stop loss: 77.25
Play Entered on: 03/14/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/03/12


QUALCOMM Inc. - QCOM - close: 64.22

Comments:
04/28/12 update: It's a good thing we took some money off the table a couple of weeks ago. The post-earnings sell-off in QCOM pushed shares to our stop loss at $61.50 this past week. Of course as Murphy's law would have it Monday was the low for the week and QCOM is up four days in a row.

I would keep QCOM on your personal watch list. Longer-term I remain bullish on this stock. I'd like to see a new base or a bounce from support near $60.00 but we'll have to wait and see how QCOM reacts. Right now there is short-term overhead resistance in the $65-66 area.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
NOV 23, 2011 - entry price on QCOM @ 52.50, option @ 4.90
symbol: QCOM1319A60 2013 JAN $60 call - exit $6.15 (+25.5%)

04/23/12 stopped out @ 61.50, option @ 6.15 (+25.5%)
04/18/12 QCOM reported earnings. Traders sold the news
04/16/12 sold half at the open. bid on calls @ 9.60 (+95.9%)
04/14/12 scrap plans to take profits at $69.50. Instead sell half of our calls at the open on Monday morning. current bid is $10.05 (+105%). We will adjust our final target for the remaining position to $79.00.
03/31/12 new stop loss @ 61.50
03/24/12 prepare to sell half (exit) at $69.50
03/17/12 new stop loss @ 58.50
02/18/12 new stop loss @ 55.75
02/11/12 new stop loss @ 54.75
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 53.75
01/07/12 new stop loss @ 51.45. Investors may want to exit early. The worry of potential accounting risks have cast a shadow over QCOM.
11/23/11 QCOM hits our trigger @ 52.50

Chart of QCOM:

Current Target: $79.00
Current Stop loss: 61.50
Play Entered on: 11/23/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/05/11