Closed Plays


None. No closed plays this week.


Play Updates


Archer-Daniels-Midland Company - ADM - close: 31.45

Comments:
06/16/12 update: It was a disappointing week for ADM. The stock continues to slip follow the failed rally on June 7th. Although you could argue that Friday's intraday bounce could be signaling a short-term bottom and ADM still has a bullish trend of higher lows.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our new position size small to limit our exposure here. Start with half your normal position size or less.

- Suggested (small) Positions -
Feb 21, 2011 - entry price on ADM @ 31.31, option @ 1.74
symbol: ADM1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 1.21/ 1.26

05/12/12 new stop loss @ 29.45
05/01/12 ADM beat estimates by 18 cents.
04/28/12 ADM is scheduled to report earnings on May 1st.
02/21/12 trade opened on Tuesday @ 31.31
02/18/12 start with small positions to limit our exposure.
02/17/12 ADM meets our entry point requirements with a close over $31.25. Open positions the next day (Feb. 21st).
02/11/12 adjust entry trigger to wait for close over $31.25
FYI: 2014 calls are also available.

Current Target: $37.75
Current Stop loss: 29.45
Play Entered on: 02/21/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 01/28/12


Allergan Inc. - AGN - close: 92.45

Comments:
06/16/12 update: The rebound in AGN continues and shares added almost a dollar for the week. Friday saw AGN breakout past short-term resistance near $92.00 and shares are almost past its simple 50-dma. If the market cooperates we should see AGN making a run at its April highs. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Option spreads are wide for these LEAPS. We want to keep our position size pretty small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 17, 2011 - entry price on AGN @ 85.46, option @ 5.10
symbol: AGN1319A100 2013 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $ 3.10/ 3.50

05/02/12 AGN missed earnings estimates by a penny, guided lower
04/28/12 Exit strategy adjustment! We are not selling half at $99.00. Instead we'll aim for $109.00 to exit positions. See tonight's note for details on alternative exits
03/31/12 adjusted exit strategy. Sell half at $99.00 and sell the remainder at $109.00
03/10/12 new stop loss at $84.50
02/02/12 earnings in-line but guided lower for 2012
01/28/12 earnings are due on Feb. 2nd. Readers might want to raise their stop or consider some sort of hedge prior to the report.
12/24/11 new stop loss @ 81.60
12/10/11 spreads on our 2013 calls are getting wider!
11/19/11 Taking an aggressive stance on our stop loss and moving it down to $77.45
10/22/11 Earnings are coming up. Readers might want to consider raising their stop loss. We are keeping ours at $79.45.

Current Target:$109.00
Current Stop loss: 84.50
Play Entered on: 10/17/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/24/11


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 31.48

Comments:
06/16/12 update: It was a bullish week for the financial sector with the group rebounding off their Monday lows. AIG added a dollar for the week and managed to breakout over technical resistance at its 50-dma.

While the trend is up I remain cautious regarding the financials and any fallout that might occur if the Greek vote on Sunday goes poorly. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Please note our new stop loss at $26.95.

Our plan was to keep our initial position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions @ first)
May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 3.40
symbol: AIG1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 4.80/ 4.95

- or -

May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 4.20
symbol: AIG1418A35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 5.15/ 5.45

06/16/12 new stop loss @ 26.95
05/18/12 triggered at $28.25
05/05/12 The U.S. government is planning to sell 164 million shares at $30.50 and AIG will probably gap down on this news.
Move the trigger down to $28.25, and move the stop loss to $25.75.
04/28/12 adjust buy-the-dip trigger to $30.00 and stop to $27.40

Current Target:$ 39.00
Current Stop loss: 26.95
Play Entered on: 05/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/07/12


Bank of America - BAC - close: 7.90

Comments:
06/16/12 update: Believe it or not BAC looks like it may have found a bottom. The stock is breaking out higher from its recent sideways consolidation and Friday saw a bullish breakout above its 50-dma. I would be tempted to launch new bullish positions but the Greek vote on Sunday carries to much risk for the financials so I would wait. A close over $8.00 or a close over its simple 300-dma (currently $8.30) could be alternative entry points for bullish positions.

Earlier Comments:
Currently we do not have a specific exit target. The plan has been to exit in the $12.00-15.00 zone.

- Suggested Positions -

AUG 29, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 8.10, option @ 1.50
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.43/ 0.44
(No stop loss on this position)

(2nd Position, bought the dip at $5.15)

NOV 23, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 5.15, option @ 0.35
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.43/ 0.44
(no stop loss on this position)

05/19/12 BAC has pulled back to the 61.8% retracement
03/17/12 BAC has broken out from its multi-week trading range. Broken resistance near $8.30 should be new support.
01/28/12 financials seem a bit overbought here.
01/21/12 2012 Jan. $10 calls have expired (-100%)
01/14/12 earnings are due out on Jan. 19th
01/07/12 BAC broke out past its 50-dma and the $6.00 this past week
12/17/11 expect BAC to retest the $5.10-5.00 zone.
11/23/11 BAC hits new trigger @ 5.15 to buy calls.
11/19/11 New trigger to buy calls @ $5.15 (see 2nd position)
10/03/11 Sept. 26th position stopped out at $5.75.
2012 Jan. $7.50 call @ 0.48 (-27.2%)
2013 Jan. $10 call @ 0.74 (-26%)
10/01 raising our stop loss on the Sep. 26th position to $5.75
09/24 adding 2nd position, stop loss at $5.40
09/03 no stop loss on this trade at this time.

Current Target: $12.00-to-$15.00
Current Stop loss: see details above
Play Entered on: 08/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 08/27/11


Bristol Meyers Squibb - BMY - close: 34.23

Comments:
06/16/12 update: Hmm... I want to warn you that the action in BMY on Friday is troubling. The stock posted a strong gain on Thursday but shares failed under the new trend line of lower highs (you can see the trend line from the January 2012 high, across April's high and now to June's high). Friday's reversal lower has created a bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern. I am expecting BMY to retreat back toward $33.50-33.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
SEP 19, 2011 - entry price on BMY @ 30.53, option @ 1.20
symbol: BMY1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 1.15/ 1.21

06/16/12 BMY has created a bearish reversal under resistance
06/09/12 new stop loss @ 31.90
05/26/12 new stop loss @ 31.45
02/11/12 adjust stop loss to $30.90
01/03/12 planned exit, sell half, bid on 2013 Jan $35 call @ 2.58 (+115%)
12/31/11 new stop loss @ 31.45.
12/31/11 Prepare to lock in gains and sell half of our position on Tuesday morning (Jan 3rd, 2012). The 2013 Jan $35 call currently has a bid at $2.60 (a +116.6% gain).
(I have deleted previous 2011 comments on BMY, you can see them in older updates)

Current Target: $37.50
Current Stop loss: 31.90
Play Entered on: 09/19/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/10/11


CH Robinson Worldwide - CHRW - close: 58.56

This is a bearish PUT option trade.

Comments:
06/16/12 update: CHRW is up for the week but shares are essentially still in their sideways consolidation. The larger trend is still down but that doesn't mean CHRW can't bounce up toward resistance near $60 or its 50-dma before rolling over again. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our multi-month target is a drop to $50.50. We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested (small) Positions -
May 07, 2012 - entry price on CHRW @ 60.61, option @ 3.00
symbol:CHRW1319M55 2013 JAN $55 PUT - current bid/ask $ 3.30/ 3.60

06/02/12 new stop loss @ 62.25

Current Target: $50.50
Current Stop loss: 62.25
Play Entered on: 05/07/12
Originally listed in the New Plays 05/05/12


Colgate-Palmolive Co. - CL - close: 101.53

Comments:
06/16/12 update: CL has rallied back toward its 2012 highs. Shares are sitting just under resistance at the $102 level. A failure here would look like a bearish double top. That's why readers will want to seriously consider taking profits right now. The 2013 Jan $100 call is up +98% and the 2014 Jan $100 call is up +78%.

More conservative traders may want to raise their stop closer to $95 or $96. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
MAR 16, 2012 - entry price on CL @ 95.48, option @ 2.92
symbol: CL1319A100 2013 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $5.80/6.05

- or -

MAR 16, 2012 - entry price on CL @ 95.48, option @ 5.57
symbol: CL1418A100 2014 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $ 9.95/11.00

06/16/12 readers may want to take profits now. options @ +98%, +78%
06/09/12 new stop loss @ 92.45
06/02/12 correction continues. look for a dip toward $94
05/26/12 Still expecting a correction into the 96-94 zone.
05/19/12 CL looks poised to see a correction toward $96-94
05/05/12 new stop loss @ 91.75
04/26/12 CL reports earnings that are in-line with estimates.
03/31/12 CL is performing well but expect resistance at the $100 level and a possible pullback.

Current Target: $109.00
Current Stop loss: 92.45
Play Entered on: 03/16/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/10/12


eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 40.67

Comments:
06/16/12 update: EBAY underperformed the market's major indices last week. Shares remain inside their $38-42 trading range. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. Traders looking for a new entry point could use a close over resistance at $42 as an entry although you'll probably want to use a higher option strike than the ones listed below.

Earlier Comments:
We have previously closed our 2013 position. We still have the 2014 calls.

- Suggested Positions -
(previously closed 2013 position)
Mar 12, 2012 - entry price on EBAY @ 36.36, option @ 2.85
symbol: EBAY1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - exit @ $4.80 (+68.4%)

- or -

Mar 12, 2012 - entry price on EBAY @ 36.36, option @ 5.11
symbol: EBAY1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 8.15/ 8.45

06/09/12 adjusted target to $46.50
05/14/12 closed 2013 Jan $40 calls with a bid at $4.80 (+68.4%)
05/12/12 exit the 2013 Jan $40 calls at the open on Monday. Currently the bid is $4.90
04/28/12 EBAY closed near its highs. Readers may want to take profits now. The bid on the 2013 call is at $5.10 (+78.9%), and the bid on the 2014 call is at $7.95 (+55.5%)
04/21/12 new stop loss at $34.90
04/18/12 EBAY reports better than expected earnings and provides stronger 2012 earnings guidance. The stock spikes higher.
04/07/12 EBAY could see a dip toward $34.00
03/31/12 action this past week looks short-term bearish. Look for a pullback

Current Target: $46.50
Current Stop loss: 34.90
Play Entered on: 03/12/12
Originally listed in the New Plays 03/10/12


Intel Corp. - INTC - close: 27.34

Comments:
06/16/12 update: Our INTC call options have staged a nice comeback thanks to the stock's big bounce from support near $25.00. This past week INTC has rallied past potential resistance near $27.00, its 100-dma and its 50-dma. I remain somewhat cautious here. I'd like to see INTC digest these gains and close over $27.50 or $28.00 before considering new positions. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested (small, half-sized) Positions -
Feb 21, 2011 - entry price on INTC @ 27.34, option @ 1.30
symbol: INTC1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 0.93/ 0.96

- or -

Feb 21, 2011 - entry price on INTC @ 27.34, option @ 2.11
symbol: INTC1418a30 2014 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 2.19/ 2.24

06/02/12 INTC is testing support near $25 and its 200-dma again
05/23/12 INTC dipped to $24.92 intraday before rebounding
02/21/12 INTC opened at $27.34.
02/18/12 start with small positions to limit our exposure.

Current Target: $34.00
Current Stop loss: 24.75
Play Entered on: 02/21/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/11/12


Coca-Cola Company - KO - close: 76.09

Comments:
06/16/12 update: KO has rallied to new four-week highs and closed above potential resistance in the $75.50-76.00 zone. You could almost argue that shares of KO have built an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern over the last four or five weeks. Friday's gain would be a breakout past the neckline on this pattern.

If the market opens positive on Monday then I would be tempted to launch new positions here although readers may want to use a higher strike price and raise their stops toward $72.

Earlier Comments:
We will plan to exit positions prior to KO's proposed 2-for-1 split scheduled for August.

- Suggested Positions (start with small positions) -
Mar 29, 2012 - entry price on KO @ 72.35, option @ 3.60
symbol: KO1418A75 2014 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 6.00/ 6.25

05/14/12 sold half of our 2014 Jan $75 calls on Monday at the open
the bid opened at $6.20 (+72.2%)
05/12/12 prepare to sell half at the open on Monday morning to take some money off the table. Current bid is $6.55.
04/28/12 new stop loss @ 69.75
More conservative traders may want to take profits now, bid @ $5.90
04/25/12 KO's BoD has recommended a 2-for-1 split subject to shareholder approval in July. Split to occur in August.

Current Target: $87.00
Current Stop loss: 69.75
Play Entered on: 03/29/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/17/12


Eli Lilly - LLY - close: 41.99

Comments:
06/16/12 update: Drug maker LLY continues to drift higher. The stock is flirting with a breakout past resistance near $42.00. Shares hit new multi-year highs on Friday. More conservative trades might want to raise their stops closer to $40. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
Jan 05, 2012 - entry price on LLY @ 39.50, option @ 1.19
symbol: LLY1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 1.66/ 1.72

- or -

Jan 05, 2012 - entry price on LLY @ 39.50, option @ 2.75
symbol: LLY1418A45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 2.46/ 2.69

06/09/12 new stop loss @ 38.75
04/25/12 LLY beat earnings estimates by 12c and raised guidance
03/17/12 LLY's close over $40.00 looks like a new bullish entry point
01/28/12 new stop loss @ 37.75

Current Target: $44.75 & 48.00
Current Stop loss: 38.75
Play Entered on: 01/05/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/17/11


Limited Brands, Inc. - LTD - close: 42.65

Comments:
06/16/12 update: LTD is little changed for the week and I remain worried about this trade. The stock market has been rising and yet LTD refuses to participate. The stock is just sitting on support near $42, near its 300-dma, and near its long-term trend line of higher lows.

We have a stop loss at $41.50 so if LTD breaks down from this consolidation we'll get stopped out quickly. However, readers may just want to abandon ship right now anyway.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
May 18, 2012 - entry price on LTD @ 45.50, option @ 5.10
symbol: LTD1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.00/ 3.20

06/09/12 LTD did not participate in the market's big bounce. readers may want to exit early now
05/18/12 triggered on a dip at $45.50
04/28/12 adjust entry point to buy a dip at $45.50, stop $41.50
03/24/12 adjusted buy-the-dip trigger to $44.00 with a stop at $39.75

Current Target: $59.00
Current Stop loss: 41.50
Play Entered on: 05/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 03/10/12


Microsoft - MSFT - close: 30.02

Comments:
06/16/12 update: MSFT has seen a strong two-week bounce. Friday's gain of +2.3% outperformed the major indices and left MSFT sitting on round-number resistance at the $30.00 mark. There have been some rumors surrounding MSFT this past week. One comes from a WSJ story that MSFT might be Yammer Inc for $1 billion. Yammer provides enterprise social networking services. That's not all. MSFT has planned a "major announcement" for Monday in Los Angeles. Many believe that MSFT plans to unveil a new tablet PC to compete with Apple's iPad.

If we see MSFT close above its 50-dma (near 30.40), then investors can use it as a new entry point for bullish positions.

Cautious traders might want to raise their stop closer to $28.

- Suggested Positions -
Jun 01, 2012 - entry price on MSFT @ 28.50, option @ 1.69
symbol:MSFT1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 2.20/ 2.24

- or -

Jun 01, 2012 - entry price on MSFT @ 28.50, option @ 3.05
symbol:MSFT1418A30 2014 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 3.65/ 3.75

06/01/12 triggered at $28.50
05/19/12 adjust the trigger to $28.50, stop to $26.45
05/05/12 adjust the trigger to $29.00
04/28/12 adjust buy-the-dip trigger to $29.50, stop to $26.75

Current Target: $32.75 & 34.75
Current Stop loss: 26.45
Play Entered on: 06/01/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/14/12


Motorola Solutions, Inc. - MSI - close: 48.70

Comments:
06/16/12 update: MSI saw a big gain of +2.8% on Friday but shares are only up 10 cents for the week. Trading in MSI has been rocky the past few weeks. It looks like investors are applauding the news on Friday morning that MSI is buying Psion Plc. for $200 million in cash. According to the press release Psion is a "pioneer" in mobile computing and designs "rugged, handheld and vehicle-mounted devices".

Meanwhile shares of MSI still have overhead resistance near $49 and near $50. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 17, 2012 - entry price on MSI @ 49.35, option @ 2.27
symbol: MSI1319A55 2013 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $ 1.32/ 1.40

02/18/12 new stop loss @ 45.75
02/17/12 trades opens on Friday morning at $49.35
02/16/12 MSI meets our requirement to open positions
02/04/12 if triggered, use a stop loss at $43.95
01/28/12 MSI underperformed as investors sold the stock following its earnings report. If MSI doesn't improve this week we'll drop it as a candidate.

Current Target: $64.50
Current Stop loss: 45.75
Play Entered on: 02/17/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/10/11


Reynolds American Inc. - RAI - close: 42.68

Comments:
06/16/12 update: RAI has definitely been showing some relative strength these last few days. Shares have soared from under $41.50 to over $42.50 and the stock has set a new all-time closing high on Friday.

Investors could choose to buy calls on this bullish breakout. I suspect we will see RAI dip back toward the $42 area and that's where I'd look to launch new positions - on a dip or better yet a new bounce near $42.00. If you do launch positions I'd probably use the 2014 calls.

- Suggested Positions -
Nov 18, 2011 - entry price on RAI @ 40.02, option @ 2.00
symbol: RAI1319A42.5 2013 JAN $42.50 call - current bid/ask $ 2.05/ 2.20

06/16/12 RAI has broken out to new all-time highs. It could be time to look for new bullish positions. Consider the 2014 calls.
05/26/12 new stop loss @ 39.35
05/05/12 the oversold bounce is reversing. readers may want to exit lower
04/24/12 RAI reports earnings and misses. Shares spike lower!
03/10/12 another close over $42.50 could be used as a bullish entry point.
01/28/12 RAI and the rest of the tobacco stocks are underperforming. Readers might want to exit early now given RAI's relative weakness.

Current Target: $49.00
Current Stop loss: 39.35
Play Entered on: 11/18/11
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/22/11


UnitedHealth Group - UNH - close: 58.90

Comments:
06/16/12 update: UNH has rallied toward its 2012 highs near $59.00. The stock also has older resistance near $60.00. I am expecting some big moves, one way or the other, in healthcare stocks soon. The U.S. Supreme Court's decision on Obamacare should be coming out in the next week or two. I would not be surprised to see UNH churn sideways near $60 as investors wait for the decision.

Investors might want to consider some short-term July puts as some sort of hedge just in case the healthcare sector sinks on the decision or you could significantly raise your stop loss.

- Suggested Positions -
Feb 15, 2012 - entry price on UNH @ 54.53, option @ 3.25
symbol: UNH1319A60 2013 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 4.25/ 4.40

- or -

Feb 15, 2012 - entry price on UNH @ 54.53, option @ 5.00
symbol: UNH1418A60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 7.55/ 7.90

06/09/12 Investors might want to consider buying short-term July puts to protect yourself from a negative reaction to the upcoming Court decision.
05/26/12 Don't forget - the Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare is in June
04/19/12 UNH reported earnings that beat estimates and raised guidance
03/31/12 new stop loss @ 52.75. Adjust exit to $64.00
03/24/12 action this past week has turned bearish. expecting a correction toward the $50 area.

Current Target: $64.00
Current Stop loss: 52.75
Play Entered on: 02/15/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 02/11/12


Verizon Communications - VZ - close: 43.55

Comments:
06/16/12 update: VZ continues to soar. The stock hit new multi-year highs last week and Friday saw an intraday spike to $44.14. Our exit target is $45.00 but readers might want to go ahead and take profits now! More aggressive traders could aim for the $46.00 level instead (near the 2007 highs). I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Dec 23, 2011 - entry price on VZ @ 39.42, option @ 2.17
symbol: VZ1319A40 2013 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 4.20/ 4.30

- or -

Dec 23, 2011 - entry price on VZ @ 39.42, option @ 2.87
symbol: VZ1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 5.10/ 5.25

06/16/12 readers may want to take profits now!
2013 jan $40 call is +93%, 2014 jan $40 call is +77%
06/09/12 new stop loss @ 39.75
05/12/12 new stop loss @ 37.75
04/05/12 VZ began trading ex-div for its upcoming April 30th dividend
03/10/12 VZ is starting to see some positive momentum higher
01/28/12 readers may want to consider an early exit immediately
01/24/12 VZ reported earnings and missed by a penny. Shares broke down on this news.

Current Target: $45.00
Current Stop loss: 39.75
Play Entered on: 12/23/11

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/17/11