Editor's Note:

HFC and LEN have graduated from the Watch List to our active trade list below.

I have updated several stop losses on our current trades.


Closed Plays


None. No closed plays this week


Play Updates


Abbott Labs - ABT - close: 65.92

Comments:
08/18/12 update: It was a disappointing Friday for ABT. Shares had been slowly drifting higher until Friday's -0.7% decline. Furthermore, on a short-term basis, Friday's decline is technically a bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern. This could be signaling a deeper pullback to come. That would make this past week a lower high. If you study the weekly chart a dip to the long-term trend of higher lows could see ABT correct into the $64-62 area.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Before we continue I want to warn you that trading the drug makers or biotech stocks has an industry-specific danger. You never know when an FDA approval might get denied or delayed. Or some clinical trial data might disappoint. Headlines like these can send a stock gapping down. On the other hand positive news could send it soaring.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 02, 2012 - entry price on ABT @ 64.22, option @ 1.91
symbol: ABT1319A65 2013 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $ 2.69/ 2.75

- or -

JUL 02, 2012 - entry price on ABT @ 64.22, option @ 4.28
symbol: ABT1418A65 2014 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $ 4.95/ 5.10

07/14/12 ABT is due to report earnings on July 18th
07/02/12 ABT opened at $64.22
06/29/12 ABT closed @ 64.47. Plan was to wait for a close over $63.50 and buy calls the next day. We will open positions on Monday, July 2nd.

Current Target:$74.00
Current Stop loss: 59.40
Play Entered on: 07/02/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/23/12


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 34.80

Comments:
08/18/12 update: AIG has been showing plenty of strength this past week. The stock is up over two dollars and shares are now testing resistance at its early May highs near $35.00. The big-picture trend still looks very bullish but I would not buy it here. The stock is likely to pullback soon. Broken resistance near $32.50 should offer some support.

I am raising our stop loss up to $29.45.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep our initial position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions @ first)
May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 3.40
symbol: AIG1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 5.85/ 6.00

- or -

May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 4.20
symbol: AIG1418A35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 5.95/ 6.15

08/18/12 new stop loss @ 29.45
06/16/12 new stop loss @ 26.95
05/18/12 triggered at $28.25
05/05/12 The U.S. government is planning to sell 164 million shares at $30.50 and AIG will probably gap down on this news.
Move the trigger down to $28.25, and move the stop loss to $25.75.
04/28/12 adjust buy-the-dip trigger to $30.00 and stop to $27.40

Current Target:$ 39.00
Current Stop loss: 29.45
Play Entered on: 05/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/07/12


Apache Corp. - APA - close: 89.06

Comments:
08/18/12 update: APA has spent the last couple of weeks consolidating sideways under resistance near $90.00. If you look hard enough you can see a slightly bullish trend of higher lows suggesting APA is poised to breakout higher. If APA can clear resistance at $90 the next challenge for the bulls is the descending 200-dma. Please note our new stop loss at $81.40. I am not suggesting new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
Jun 18, 2012 - entry price on APA @ 87.10, option @ 3.45
symbol: APA1319A100 2013 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $ 1.97/ 2.03

- or -

Jun 18, 2012 - entry price on APA @ 87.10, option @ 6.43
symbol: APA1418A100 2014 JAN $110 call - current bid/ask $ 4.75/ 4.95

08/18/12 new stop loss @ 81.40

Current Target: $109.00
Current Stop loss: 81.40
Play Entered on: 06/18/12
Originally listed in the New Plays 06/16/12


Bank of America - BAC - close: 8.00

Comments:
08/18/12 update: Shares of BAC have climbed four weeks in a row. Unfortunately, if Friday's session is any indication, the rally is running low on gas. The move on Friday looks like a short-term failed rally. Of course after a four-week run BAC is due for a little pullback. Whether or not BAC does correct lower may depend on if the stock market's major indices can breakout past resistance this week.

I would expect BAC to dip into the $7.80-7.60 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Currently we do not have a specific exit target. The plan has been to exit in the $12.00-15.00 zone.

- Suggested Positions -

AUG 29, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 8.10, option @ 1.50
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.18/ 0.19
(No stop loss on this position)

(2nd Position, bought the dip at $5.15)

NOV 23, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 5.15, option @ 0.35
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.18/ 0.19
(no stop loss on this position)

07/21/12 BAC reported earnings this past week and investors have decided to sell the news. The stock looks vulnerable here and readers may want to exit early!
05/19/12 BAC has pulled back to the 61.8% retracement
03/17/12 BAC has broken out from its multi-week trading range. Broken resistance near $8.30 should be new support.
...look for earlier comments in prior updates...

Current Target: $12.00-to-$15.00
Current Stop loss: see details above
Play Entered on: 08/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 08/27/11


Caterpillar Inc. - CAT - close: 90.01

Comments:
08/18/12 update: Workers at one of CAT's Illinois plants have agreed to a new multi-year deal, ending a labor strike. That may have helped shares gap higher on Friday morning. CAT has closed right at resistance at the $90.00 level so it's not a bullish breakout yet. If the rally does continue there is likely resistance in the $93.50-95.00 zone. Plus, the exponential 200-dma, 300-dma, and 200-dma could all be overhead technical resistance. In spite of the hurdles in front of it CAT does look bullish but I would not launch new positions at current levels.

Please note our new stop loss at $81.75.

Our long-term target is the $110-115 zone (although we'll exit the 2013 calls before CAT hits our final target).

- Suggested (small) Positions -
Aug 10, 2012 - entry price on CAT @ 88.26, option @ 3.81
symbol: CAT1319A95 2013 JAN $95 CALL - current bid/ask $ 3.90/ 3.95

- or -

Aug 10, 2012 - entry price on CAT @ 88.26, option @ 7.90
symbol: CAT1418A100 2013 JAN $100 CALL - current bid/ask $ 8.20/ 8.40

08/18/12 new stop loss at $81.75
08/10/12 trade opened on Friday morning @ $88.26
08/09/12 CAT closed above our trigger (which was 87.50)
08/06/12 adjust entry trigger to a close over $87.50
07/21/12 adjusted entry point to wait for a close over $88.00, stop loss 79.90

Current Target: $110.00-115.00
Current Stop loss: 81.75
Play Entered on: 08/10/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 07/07/12


CH Robinson Worldwide - CHRW - close: 57.04

This is a bearish PUT option trade.

Comments:
08/18/12 update: Ouch! CHRW is up almost three dollars for the week. The stock just posted its third weekly gain as well. I was expecting CHRW to find more resistance in the $55-56 area. Yet the stock has really accelerated higher in the last four or five days. The close over $56 and its 50-dma is short-term bullish.

Longer-term the trend is still down. Currently we have a stop loss at $60.75 but more conservative traders may want to lower theirs closer to the simple 100-dma (near $59.40) or closer to $58.00 instead.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our multi-month target is a drop to $50.50. We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested (small) Positions -
May 07, 2012 - entry price on CHRW @ 60.61, option @ 3.00
symbol:CHRW1319M55 2013 JAN $55 PUT - current bid/ask $ 2.80/ 2.95

07/28/12 lowering the stop loss to $60.75.
07/14/12 raising the risk on this trade by adjusting the stop loss to $63.25.
06/02/12 new stop loss @ 62.25

Current Target: $50.50
Current Stop loss: 60.75
Play Entered on: 05/07/12
Originally listed in the New Plays 05/05/12


CVS Caremark Corp. - CVS - close: 45.31

Comments:
08/18/12 update: I am giving up on CVS. The stock is up the last two days in a row but I think it's too little too late. The S&P 500 index is up six weeks in a row. Yet CVS has been stuck churning inside the $44-46 area.

I am suggesting we abandon ship and exit positions on Monday morning.

- Suggested Positions -
Jul 19, 2012 - entry price on CVS @ 45.98, option @ 0.93
symbol: CVS1319A50 2013 JAN $50 call - current bid/ask $0.53/0.55

- or -

Jul 19, 2012 - entry price on CVS @ 45.98, option @ 1.70*
symbol: CVS1418A55 2014 JAN $55 call - current bid/ask $1.26/1.35

08/18/12 prepare to exit on Monday morning
07/21/12 adjust stop loss to $42.45
*entry price on the 2014 option is an estimate since the option didn't trade on the 19th.
07/19/12 trade opens as CVS gaps lower at $45.98 on news
07/18/12 CVS closed above our trigger at $48.50

Current Target: $57.50
Current Stop loss: 42.45
Play Entered on: 07/19/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 07/14/12


Discover Financial - DFS - close: 37.77

Comments:
08/18/12 update: Shares of DFS produced a big move higher on Thursday. The stock broke out from its sideways consolidation and shares are trading at new record highs. It looks like the move higher on Thursday may have been reaction to news that DFS was partnering with Google in the new Google Wallet program.

Please note our new stop loss at $33.45.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 05, 2012 - entry price on DFS @ 35.28, option @ 2.15
symbol: DFS1319A37 2013 JAN $37 call - current bid/ask $2.85/3.00

- or -

JUL 05, 2012 - entry price on DFS @ 35.28, option @ 3.40
symbol: DFS1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $3.80/4.10

08/18/12 new stop loss @ 33.45
08/11/12 new stop loss @ 32.40
07/05/12 trade opens with DFS at $35.28
07/03/12 DFS closes at $35.45, above our trigger @ 35.00
06/30/12 removed the buy-the-dip trigger.
06/23/12 adjusted entry point strategy to two different entries
06/16/12 DFS is scheduled to report earnings on June 19th.

Current Target: $ 42.50
Current Stop loss: 33.45
Play Entered on: 07/05/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/02/12


HollyFrontier Corp. - HFC - close: 39.87

Comments:
08/18/12 update: HFC is a watch list candidate that has graduated to our active trade list. The plan was to wait for HFC to close over $40.50 and then buy calls the next day. Our trade opened on Friday morning. However, if you want to get technical HFC didn't actually close "over" $40.50 it closed "at" $40.50. If you are waiting for an entry point I would buy calls now or look for a new rise past $40.50. I strongly suspect that HFC's relative weakness on Friday and drop to $40.00 was probably due to option expiration.

Our long-term target is $44.50 for the 2013 calls and $48.50 for the 2014 calls.

- Suggested Positions -
AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on HFC @ 40.50, option @ 2.75
symbol: HFC1319A42 2013 JAN $42 call - current bid/ask $2.65/2.75

- or -

AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on HFC @ 40.50, option @ 5.00
symbol: HFC1418A45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $4.90/5.10

Chart of HFC:

Current Target: $ 44.50(2013 calls), $48.50 (2014 call)
Current Stop loss: 36.90
Play Entered on: 08/17/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/06/12


Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 32.74

Comments:
08/18/12 update: LEN is another watch list candidate that has graduated to our active trade list. Some of the homebuilders have been showing relative strength as investors bet that the worst is over for the housing market. Shares of LEN have climbed to new multi-year highs. Our plan was to wait for LEN to close over $32.25 and then buy calls the next day. That trigger was hit with Thursday's rally past $32. Our trade opened on Friday morning. I would still consider new positions now.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $36.00 for the 2013 calls and $39.50 for the 2014 calls. FYI: LEN is due to report earnings in mid September.

- Suggested Positions -
AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on LEN @ 32.72, option @ 2.07
symbol: LEN1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $2.28/2.34

- or -

AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on LEN @ 32.72, option @ 3.39
symbol: LEN1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $3.40/3.55

Chart of LEN:

Current Target: $ 36.00(2013 calls), $39.50 (2014 call)
Current Stop loss: 29.75
Play Entered on: 08/17/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/11/12


Eli Lilly - LLY - close: 42.42

Comments:
08/18/12 update: I am growing concerned about LLY. Shares have been underperforming the market these last two weeks. Believe it or not the longer-term trend is still higher but recent weakness doesn't bode well for LLY. Look for support near $42 or near the 200-dma (closer to $41). I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Currently we want to exit our 2014 calls when LLY hits $48.50.

- Suggested (SMALL) Positions -
(exited on July 23rd at the open)
Jan 05, 2012 - entry price on LLY @ 39.50, option @ 1.19
symbol: LLY1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - exit $2.09 (+75.6%)

- or -

(still active)
Jan 05, 2012 - entry price on LLY @ 39.50, option @ 2.75
symbol: LLY1418A45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 2.24/ 2.59

07/23/12 closed the 2013 calls @ the open (+75.6%)
07/21/12 prepare to exit the 2013 Jan $45 calls on Monday morning
07/21/12 adjust exit target for 2014 calls to $48.50
06/30/12 new stop loss @ 39.75
06/23/12 LLY is hitting new multi-year highs.
06/09/12 new stop loss @ 38.75
04/25/12 LLY beat earnings estimates by 12c and raised guidance
03/17/12 LLY's close over $40.00 looks like a new bullish entry point
01/28/12 new stop loss @ 37.75

Current Target: $48.50 (2014)
Current Stop loss: 39.75
Play Entered on: 01/05/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/17/11


Monsanto Co. - MON - close: 87.87

Comments:
08/18/12 update: A week ago it looked like MON's rally had run out of steam under resistance at $90 and shares would correct lower. The stock has managed to churn sideways in the $86-89 area. There is still resistance near $90 and odds favor a correction but if the market's major indices can breakout then MON might follow suit. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Jul 17, 2012 - entry price on MON @ 85.84, option @ 4.35
symbol: MON1319A90 2013 JAN $90 call - current bid/ask $ 4.35/ 4.45

- or -

Jul 17, 2012 - entry price on MON @ 85.84, option @ 6.50
symbol: MON1418A100 2014 JAN $100 call - current bid/ask $ 6.10/ 6.30

08/11/12 look for a pullback toward $84 soon
07/17/12 trade opens with MON at $85.84
07/16/12 MON closes above our entry requirement ($85.25)

Current Target: $99.50
Current Stop loss: 79.90
Play Entered on: 07/17/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 07/14/12


Merck & Co - MRK - close: 43.34

Comments:
08/18/12 update: After several weeks of gains MRK was way overdue for a pullback. Shares managed to consolidate sideways for a couple of weeks after that last big surge in late July. Now MRK is finally starting to correct. This is normal. A typical 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the June-July rally would mean a pull back toward $42.00. A 50% retracement would be a dip to $41.00.

Conservative traders may want to take profits now and then reconsider a new entry on a bounce once the correction is over.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our long-term target remains the $47.50 level since we have the 2014 options.

- Suggested Positions -
Jun 25, 2012 - entry price on MRK @ 39.91, option @ 3.14
symbol: MRK1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 5.15/ 5.20

08/11/12 new stop loss @ 40.90
07/14/12 new stop loss @ 39.49
07/14/12 Readers will want to seriously consider taking profits now.
MRK is at $43.47, option @ 5.15 (+93.9%)
06/25/12 MRK gap down at $39.91
06/22/12 MRK met our entry point requirement with a close over $40.00. Launch positions on Monday morning (conservative traders can wait for a dip to the 10-dma instead).

Current Target: $47.50
Current Stop loss: 40.90
Play Entered on: 06/25/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/05/12


Microsoft - MSFT - close: 30.90

Comments:
08/18/12 update: MSFT has managed to chew threw technical resistance in the $30-31 area. Now the stock has climbed to resistance at the $31.00 level. I would be tempted to launch new bullish positions if MSFT can close over $31.25.

- Suggested Positions -
Jun 01, 2012 - entry price on MSFT @ 28.50, option @ 1.69
symbol:MSFT1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 2.14/ 2.16

- or -

Jun 01, 2012 - entry price on MSFT @ 28.50, option @ 3.05
symbol:MSFT1418A30 2014 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 3.75/ 3.80

07/28/12 raise stop loss to $28.45
06/18/12 MSFT announces the "surface" line of tablets
06/01/12 triggered at $28.50
05/19/12 adjust the trigger to $28.50, stop to $26.45
05/05/12 adjust the trigger to $29.00
04/28/12 adjust buy-the-dip trigger to $29.50, stop to $26.75

Current Target: $32.75 & 34.75
Current Stop loss: 28.45
Play Entered on: 06/01/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/14/12


Pepsico, Inc. - PEP - close: 73.39

Comments:
08/18/12 update: PEP has consolidated sideways the last couple of weeks near the $72 area. Now with the market's recent surge late this past week the stock has hit new three-year highs. I am raising our stop loss up to $68.75.

- Suggested Positions -
Jul 02, 2012 - entry price on PEP @ 70.34, option @ 2.85
symbol: PEP1418A75 2014 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $ 3.55/ 3.75

08/18/12 new stop loss @ 68.75
08/06/12 new stop loss @ 67.75
07/02/12 PEP opened at $70.34
07/02/12 launch positions at the open
06/29/12 PEP meets our entry requirement with a close above $70.25.

Current Target: $79.00
Current Stop loss: 68.75
Play Entered on: 07/02/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/26/12


Pfizer Inc. - PFE - close: 23.79

Comments:
08/18/12 update: PFE hit new multi-year highs in late July and early August. Since then the stock has been consolidating sideways in a relatively narrow range. If the stock sees a pullback we can look for support near $23.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Jul 18, 2012 - entry price on PFE @ 23.53, option @ 1.30
symbol: PFE1418A25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $ 1.38/ 1.42

08/06/12 new stop loss @ 21.35
07/18/12 trade opens. PFE @ 23.53
07/17/12 PFE meets our entry requirements (close over $23.40)
06/23/12 removed the 2013 call. We'll only play the 2014s
04/28/12 do not launch positions prior to the earnings report on May 1st.

Current Target: $28.00
Current Stop loss: 21.35
Play Entered on: 07/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/21/12


QUALCOMM Inc. - QCOM - close: 63.29

Comments:
08/18/12 update: Apple's iPhone 5 has not even been confirmed yet but rumors are swirling that Apple (AAPL) will announce one this fall (possibly September). It's estimated that AAPL's iPhone 5 could be the biggest smartphone launch in history. QCOM, who makes components for the iPhone, is riding the wave of AAPL enthusiasm higher. Shares of QCOM are up five weeks in a row. Shares look pretty overbought here and due for a pullback.

FYI: A typical 50% retracement of the July-August rally would be a dip to $58. I expect the $60 level to act as support.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Aug 10, 2012 - entry price on QCOM @ 61.71, option @ 2.56
symbol:QCOM1319A65 2013 JAN $65 call - current bid/ask $ 3.05/ 3.10

- or -

Aug 10, 2012 - entry price on QCOM @ 61.71, option @ 4.75
symbol:QCOM1418A70 2014 JAN $70 call - current bid/ask $ 5.20/ 5.25

Current Target: $68.50
Current Stop loss: 57.40
Play Entered on: 08/10/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/06/12


The TJX Companies - TJX - close: 45.91

Comments:
08/18/12 update: TJX has not been moving very fast over the last few weeks. Yet the stock has maintained the bullish trend of higher lows and higher highs. This past week saw TJX breakout to new all-time highs on Friday.

We are raising our stop loss up to $40.85. If TJX does see a pullback it should find some support in the $43.50-43.00 area.

- Suggested Positions -
Jun 20, 2012 - entry price on TJX @ 43.62, option @ 2.53
symbol: TJX1319A45 2013 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.20/ 3.30

- or -

Jun 20, 2012 - entry price on TJX @ 43.62, option @ 5.10
symbol: TJX1418A45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 5.90/ 6.10

08/18/12 new stop loss @ 40.85
07/05/12 TJX beats June same-store sales estimates and raises guidance
06/20/12 trade opens
06/19/12 TJX closed above our entry requirement (above $43.25)

Current Target: $49.75
Current Stop loss: 40.85
Play Entered on: 06/20/12

Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/16/12


Time Warner - TWX - close: 42.61

Comments:
08/18/12 update: The first two weeks of August saw TWX surge from $39 to almost $43. Since then shares have been consolidating sideways in a narrow range. This stock remains overbought and should see a pullback lower. However, a correction is not guaranteed. If TWX does retreat I would look for support near $40. More conservative traders may want to take profits now if you hold the 2013 calls and reconsider jumping back in on a dip.

I am raising our stop loss to $38.75.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Aug 03, 2012 - entry price on TWX @ 40.66, option @ 1.79
symbol: TWX1319A42 2013 JAN $42 call - current bid/ask $ 2.48/ 2.52

- or -

Aug 03, 2012 - entry price on TWX @ 40.66, option @ 2.85
symbol: TWX1419A45 2014 JAN $45 call - current bid/ask $ 3.35/ 3.50

08/11/12 readers might want to lock in gains now (+49% on the 2013 calls) in just two weeks and then jump back in on a correction in the stock.
08/03/12 TWX opens at $40.66 (trade opens)
08/02/12 TWX meets our entry requirement with a close over $40.50

Current Target: $49.00
Current Stop loss: 38.75
Play Entered on: 08/03/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 07/21/12


Union Pacific Corp. - UNP - close: 125.01

Comments:
08/18/12 update: There has been a lot of focus on the transportation sector not confirming the broader market's rally. Yet this past week saw the transportation index surge higher. This rally in the sector helped UNP gain three points for the week. Shares actually set a new closing high this week. I am raising our stop loss to $114.75. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
Jul 20, 2012 - entry price on UNP @ 122.10, option @ 3.80
symbol: UNP1319A130 2013 JAN $130 call - current bid/ask $ 4.50/ 4.65

- or -

Jul 20, 2012 - entry price on UNP @ 122.10, option @ 6.40
symbol: UNP1418A140 2014 JAN $140 call - current bid/ask $ 7.30/ 7.75

08/18/12 new stop loss at $114.75
08/11/12 that looks like a brand new bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern on the weekly chart today. Let's see if there is any follow through.

Current Target: $139.00
Current Stop loss: 114.75
Play Entered on: 07/20/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/30/12


U.S. Bancorp - USB - close: 33.11

Comments:
08/18/12 update: The financial sector has been quietly churning sideways in a very narrow range. That started to change with financials moving higher in the last couple of sessions. Unfortunately, USB is not participating in the rally yet. This stock is still moving sideways. If USB doesn't join ranks with the rest of the financials soon we could see this stock correct lower toward the $32-31 area.

- Suggested Positions -
Jul 20, 2012 - entry price on USB @ 33.62, option @ 1.39
symbol: USB1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 0.92/ 0.95

- or -

Jul 20, 2012 - entry price on USB @ 33.62, option @ 3.10
symbol: USB1418A35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 2.74/ 2.84

07/20/12 trade opens Friday morning
07/19/12 USB closes above our trigger <33.50
07/14/12 adjusted strategy: wait for a close over $33.50, stop 29.90
06/30/12 readers might want to consider an alternative entry point
06/23/12 adjust entry trigger to $29.00, stop to 26.40
06/02/12 adjust entry trigger to $28.00

Current Target: $39.50
Current Stop loss: 29.90
Play Entered on: 07/20/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/19/12


Visa, Inc. - V - close: 128.69

Comments:
08/18/12 update: Visa has not made any progress. Shares are churning sideways under the $130 level. I don't see many changes from my prior comments. If this stock corrects we can look for likely support near $125 and then at $120. If Visa can move higher there is short-term resistance near $132. Beyond $132 it's blue-sky territory for V.

Earlier Comments:
Our long-term target is $149.00 (although we'll likely exit our 2013 calls before V reaches our target).

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 03, 2012 - entry price on V @ 126.49, option @ 5.85
symbol: V1319A135 2013 JAN $135 call - current bid/ask $ 5.10/ 5.25

- or -

JUL 03, 2012 - entry price on V @ 126.49, option @ 11.95
symbol: V1418A140 2014 JAN $140 call - current bid/ask $11.45/12.20

08/06/12 new stop loss @ 119.75
07/16/12 V pops on news of a settlement in 7-year lawsuit
07/03/12 trade opens with Visa at $126.49
07/02/12 Visa closes above our trigger @ 125.50

Current Target: $149.00
Current Stop loss: 119.75
Play Entered on: 07/03/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/30/12


Valero Energy - VLO - close: 28.80

Comments:
08/18/12 update: VLO continues to digest its gains in a sideways consolidation. After a non-stop ten-week rally higher VLO remains overbought even after a two-week drift sideways. Odds would favor a correction lower but with the major indices poised to breakout past resistance we could see VLO follow the market higher. I suspect that a breakdown under $28.00 would probably signal a bigger retreat toward the $26.50-26.00 area.

Currently we only have the 2014 call position left and our exit target is $29.90. I am not suggesting new positions.

I am raising our stop loss to $25.75. More conservative traders will want to seriously consider an early exit right now. The 2014 calls are up +67%.

- Suggested Positions -
(exited on August 7th at the open) JUL 05, 2012 - entry price on VLO @ 24.90, option @ 2.54
symbol: VLO1319A25 2013 JAN $25 call - exit $4.65 (+83.0%)

- or -

JUL 05, 2012 - entry price on VLO @ 24.90, option @ 2.60
symbol: VLO1418A30 2014 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 4.35/ 4.45

08/07/12 closed the 2013 calls. exit @ 4.65 (+83.0%)
08/06/12 Exit 2013 Jan $25 calls on Aug 7th at the open
08/06/12 new stop loss @ 24.40
07/05/12 trade opened with VLO gapping down at $24.90
07/03/12 VLO closed at $25.01, above our trigger (24.50)
06/30/12 adjust entry strategy: wait for close over $24.50, stop 22.45

Current Target: $29.75
Current Stop loss: 25.75
Play Entered on: 07/05/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/23/12