Editor's Note:

The U.S. market continues to sink but many stocks and the major indices have reached oversold levels. It looks like equities are due for a bounce.

GE has joined the active trade list.


Closed Plays


COF, JOY, PFE and USB were stopped out.


Play Updates


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 32.17

Comments:
11/17/12: The correction in AIG is now four weeks old, five if you count the reversal in mid October. The stock broke down under its 200-dma this past week but managed to reclaim it with Friday's bounce. It looks like AIG may have found a short-term bottom but we need to see some confirmation and I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Right now our stop loss is at $29.45. More conservative traders may want to up that toward this past week's low (30.64).

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep our initial position size small to limit our risk. We want to exit our 2013 calls when AIG hits $39.00. We will plan on exiting our 2014 calls when shares hit $42.50.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions @ first)
May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 3.40
symbol: AIG1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 2.71/ 2.77

- or -

May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 4.20
symbol: AIG1418A35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 3.50/ 3.60

11/02/12 AIG gapped down following its earnings report
10/06/12 adjusting our exit targets. Plan on exiting our 2013 calls when AIG hits $39.00. We'll exit our 2014 calls when AIG hits $42.50
09/08/12 Treasury has announced an $18 billion sale of AIG stock
08/18/12 new stop loss @ 29.45
06/16/12 new stop loss @ 26.95
05/18/12 triggered at $28.25
05/05/12 The U.S. government is planning to sell 164 million shares at $30.50 and AIG will probably gap down on this news.
Move the trigger down to $28.25, and move the stop loss to $25.75.
04/28/12 adjust buy-the-dip trigger to $30.00 and stop to $27.40

Current Target:$ 39.00
Current Stop loss: 29.45
Play Entered on: 05/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/07/12


Bank of America - BAC - close: 9.12

Comments:
11/17/12: BAC shot lower on the 14th and broke down under its 50-dma. Yet there hasn't been much follow through. Shares are currently bouncing in the $8.90-9.00 area. That doesn't mean the failure at $10 and the two-week reversal doesn't look bad. It does look bad and BAC might be headed for the next level of support near $8.50 and its 200-dma. If that occurs it would probably be the death of our 2013 January calls. More conservative traders may want to abandon ship or apply a stop loss under last week's low. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Currently we do not have a specific exit target. The plan has been to exit in the $12.00-15.00 zone.

- Suggested Positions -

AUG 29, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 8.10, option @ 1.50
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.20/ 0.21
(No stop loss on this position)

(2nd Position, bought the dip at $5.15)

NOV 23, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 5.15, option @ 0.35
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.20/ 0.21
(no stop loss on this position)

11/10/12 no new positions at this time.
09/08/12 BAC is breaking out. Consider buying 2014 calls on a dip near the $8.50-8.40 area
07/21/12 BAC reported earnings this past week and investors have decided to sell the news. The stock looks vulnerable here and readers may want to exit early!
05/19/12 BAC has pulled back to the 61.8% retracement
03/17/12 BAC has broken out from its multi-week trading range. Broken resistance near $8.30 should be new support.
...look for earlier comments in prior updates...

Current Target: $12.00-to-$15.00
Current Stop loss: see details above
Play Entered on: 08/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 08/27/11


CONSOL Energy Inc. - CNX - close: 31.75

Comments:
11/17/12: The correction lower in CNX continues. I warned readers a week ago that we'd probably see CNX retest the $32 area again. Shares surpassed that with a spike down to $30.42 on Friday morning. Friday's intraday reversal is encouraging but it needs to see follow through. Given our stop loss at $29.75 I would be somewhat tempted to consider new positions here but the better choice is probably to wait. Given the uncertainty in the market over the fiscal cliff the next few weeks could be volatile.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small. Our long-term target is $42.50. The Point & Figure chart for CNX is bullish with a long-term $47 target.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 09, 2012 - entry price on CNX @ 32.50, option @ 3.24
symbol: CNX1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.62/ 2.73

11/09/12 triggered on a dip at $32.50
11/03/12 adjust the trigger down to $32.50, stop to $29.75
10/27/12 adjust the trigger down to $33.00

Current Target: $42.50
Current Stop loss: 29.75
Play Entered on: 11/09/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/13/12


Cree, Inc. - CREE - close: 29.94

Comments:
11/17/12: I cautioned readers to expect a dip back toward $30 or $29. Sadly the semiconductor sector was one of the market's worst performers last week. CREE started to pullback on Wednesday and the close under $30.00 is technically bearish. Investors will also want to be aware that this past week's pullback has created a bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern on the weekly chart. If CREE doesn't bounce soon odds are rising we will see it pullback to the next support level near $28 and its 50-dma and 200-dma. I would hesitate to launch new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 01, 2012 - entry price on CREE @ 29.85, option @ 3.80
symbol:CREE1418a35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 3.50/ 3.70

Current Target:$ 39.00
Current Stop loss: 27.45
Play Entered on: 11/01/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


Discover Financial - DFS - close: 39.46

Comments:
11/17/12: DFS was holding up just fine until Wednesday. It was Wednesday when the whole market accelerated lower and suddenly traders started taking profits in DFS. Shares have broken below their 50-dma but the bounce near $38 and its 100-dma, right where we expected it to. Friday's rebound is just a short-term oversold bounce from the sharp two-day decline and now $40.00 is new short-term resistance again. More conservative traders might want to consider taking profits now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

We still have the 2014 calls and we're aiming for $44.00.

- Suggested Positions -
(Closed on Sept. 27th)
JUL 05, 2012 - entry price on DFS @ 35.28, option @ 2.15
symbol: DFS1319A37 2013 JAN $37 call - exit $3.70 (+72.0%)

- or -

JUL 05, 2012 - entry price on DFS @ 35.28, option @ 3.40
symbol: DFS1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $4.60/4.90

11/03/12 new stop loss @ 36.45
09/29/12 new stop loss @ 35.75
09/27/12 hits our $39.75 target to exit 2013 calls (option @ $3.70)
09/27/12 DFS beats Wall Street's earnings estimates
09/22/12 more conservative traders may want to exit right now or before DFS reports earnings on Sep 27th.
08/25/12 new stop loss @ 34.75
08/25/12 adjusted targets to $39.75 (2013 calls), $44 (2014 calls)
08/18/12 new stop loss @ 33.45
...see prior updates for early comments.

Current Target: $39.75 for the 2013 call2, $44.00 for the 2014s
Current Stop loss: 36.45
Play Entered on: 07/05/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/02/12


Family Dollar Stores - FDO - close: 66.54

Comments:
11/17/12: Believe it or not but FDO actually closed up for the week. That's not saying much when you look at FDO's recent action. Shares have been churning sideways on either side of $66 for days now. Traders seem to be buying dips near the rising 50-dma at the moment. The fact that FDO has been able to maintain the bullish trend of higher lows is definitely encouraging. Readers may want to wait for a close over $67.00 before considering new bullish positions.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 12, 2012 - entry price on FDO @ 65.88, option @ 1.70
symbol: FDO1320d75 2013 APR $75 call - current bid/ask $1.15/1.35

10/20/12 adjust stop loss to $62.95

Current Target: $74.50
Current Stop loss: 62.95
Play Entered on: 10/12/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/06/12


General Electric - GE - close: 20.15

Comments:
11/17/12: GE is a watch list candidate that hit our entry point this past week. The plan was to buy calls on a dip at $20.25. When the market plunged on Wednesday shares of GE dropped to $19.95 before settling at round-number, psychological support at $20.00. Since then GE has been holding this support level but it remains under its broken 200-dma. Readers may want to wait for GE to close back above the 200-dma (currently 20.25) before launching new bullish positions.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 14, 2012 - entry price on GE @ 20.25, option @ 0.42
symbol: GE1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $0.39/0.43

11/14/12 triggered at $20.25
11/10/12 adjust the trigger down to $20.25, just above the 200-dma, stop to $19.25
10/27/12 move the buy-the-dip trigger down to $20.50
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $21.00 and our stop to $19.45

Chart of GE:

Current Target: $27.50
Current Stop loss: 19.25
Play Entered on: 11/14/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/22/12


Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 36.13

Comments:
11/17/12: Whew! That was a close one. LEN almost hit our stop loss on Thursday with a dip to $33.92. The recent sell-off broke through one of LEN's bullish trend lines of support but the last three days have created a bullish reversal pattern. Now LEN just needs to rally back above the 50-dma and we can breathe a little easier.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our stop remains at $33.90.

Earlier Comments:
I do think the $40.00 level is likely resistance and LEN will probably see a pullback on its initial test of $40.00. Keep in mind that we also have more than a year for our 2014 calls to work.

- Suggested Positions -
(target for 2013 calls was hit at $36.00 on 09/14/2012)
AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on LEN @ 32.72, option @ 2.07
symbol: LEN1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - exit $3.70 (+78.7%)

- or -

AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on LEN @ 32.72, option @ 3.39
symbol: LEN1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $4.70/4.90

10/20/12 new stop loss @ 33.90, adjust exit target on 2014 calls to $44.00
09/24/12 LEN reported earnings, investors sell the news
09/22/12 new stop loss @ 33.40
09/15/12 new stop loss @ 31.40
09/14/12 2013 call target hit at $36.00, option @ 3.70 (+78.7%)
...

Current Target: $ 36.00(2013 calls), $44.00 (2014 call)
Current Stop loss: 33.90
Play Entered on: 08/17/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/11/12


L-3 Communications - LLL - close: 73.97

Comments:
11/17/12: We had a close call with LLL. Shares broke down under their 50-dma this past week. The stock also dipped to short-term support near $72.00. The intraday low on Friday was $71.91. Our stop loss is at $71.85. The big rebound on Friday is encouraging but I would not launch new positions here. A close back above $75.00 would improve things and might be considered a new bullish entry point.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 05, 2012 - entry price on LLL @ 75.64, option @ 4.40
symbol: LLL1418a80 2014 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 3.80/ 4.10

Current Target:$ 85.00
Current Stop loss: 71.85
Play Entered on: 11/05/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


Southern Copper Corp - SCCO - close: 33.67

Comments:
11/17/12: SCCO gave up another dollar last week yet the downward momentum is slowing. The stock has reached oversold levels and shares are now up two days in a row. I am not suggesting new positions at this moment. Readers might want to consider raising their stop loss to $32.40, just under the 200-dma, or closer to $33.00 instead.

The plan was to keep our position size small to start.

- Suggested *SMALL* Positions -
NOV 06, 2012 - entry price on SCCO @ 35.78, option @ 2.30
symbol:SCCO1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 1.20/ 1.60

11/06/12 trade opened on gap down at $35.78, below our trigger.
(gap down was due to SCCO trading ex-dividend)

Current Target: $44.75
Current Stop loss: 31.95
Play Entered on: 11/06/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


SIRIUS XM Radio - SIRI - close: 2.69

Comments:
11/17/12: SIRI saw some volatility this past week with an intraday dip below support near $2.60. That may have been due to news that its Canadian business might suffer due to the NHL lockout as customers cancel subscriptions due to missing games. Fortunately the stock recovered relatively well on Friday but I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 04, 2012 - entry price on SIRI @ 2.75, option @ 0.38
symbol:SIRI1418A3 2014 JAN $3.00 call - current bid/ask $ 0.38/ 0.42

- or -

Buy the Stock: Entry @ $2.75 on Oct. 4th, 2012

11/03/12 new stop loss @ 2.45
10/20/12 warning! SIRI is up five weeks in a row and growing overbought. The stock could see a sell-off on its earnings report

Current Target: $ 3.90
Current Stop loss: 2.45
Play Entered on: 10/04/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/29/12


Visa, Inc. - V - close: 142.71

Comments:
11/17/12: Visa continues to weather the market's storm pretty well. The stock has been consolidating in a bull-flag like pattern, minus the flag pole. Traders bought the dip on Thursday and V outperformed on Friday with a +1.9% gain.

I am encouraged by the stock's performance. More aggressive traders may want to raise their exit target given how much time we have left on the 2014 calls. Currently we are aiming for $149.00.

- Suggested Positions -
(Closed the 2013 calls on Oct. 22nd at the open)
JUL 03, 2012 - entry price on V @ 126.49, option @ 5.85
symbol: V1319A135 2013 JAN $135 call - exit @ $7.95 (+35.8%)

- or -

JUL 03, 2012 - entry price on V @ 126.49, option @ 11.95
symbol: V1418A140 2014 JAN $140 call - current bid/ask $16.75/17.15

11/03/12 New stop loss @ 134.00
10/31/12 Visa delivers a bullish earnings report
10/22/12 closed 2013 Jan call at the open
10/20/12 prepare to exit our 2013 calls at the open on Monday
10/13/12 readers may want to take profits early if you're holding the 2013 calls.
10/06/12 new stop loss @ 129.00
08/06/12 new stop loss @ 119.75
07/16/12 V pops on news of a settlement in 7-year lawsuit
07/03/12 trade opens with Visa at $126.49
07/02/12 Visa closes above our trigger @ 125.50

Current Target: $149.00
Current Stop loss: 134.00
Play Entered on: 07/03/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/30/12


CLOSED Plays


Capital One Financial Corp. - COF - close: 55.70

Comments:
11/17/12: Ouch! It's been a very painful two weeks for COF. The stock was trading near new multi-year highs on Friday Nov. 2nd just under $62. Since then it's been almost straight down. COF came to rest of technical support at its simple 200-dma this Friday. Our stop loss had already been hit at $56.85.

Earlier Comments:
COF can be somewhat volatile so we want to keep our position size small.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
OCT 22, 2012 - entry price on COF @ 61.14, option @ 5.65
symbol: COF1418a65 2014 JAN $65 call - exit @ 3.80 (-32.7%)

11/14/12 stopped out at $56.85

Chart of COF:

Current Target:$ 74.00
Current Stop loss: 56.85
Play Entered on: 10/22/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/06/12


Joy Global, Inc - JOY - close: 54.88

Comments:
11/17/12: JOY has seen a dramatic two-week reversal from its failed rally near the simple 200-dma in early November. The market's widespread post-election sell-off has only exacerbated the selling. JOY broke through support near $60, near its 50-dma, near its 100-dma and the $55 level. When the whole market accelerated lower on Wednesday, Nov. 14th shares of JOY hit our stop at $55.75.

- Suggested Positions -
SEP 25, 2012 - entry price on JOY @ 57.50, option @ 7.50
symbol: JOY1418A70 2014 JAN $70 call - exit $5.70 (-24.0%)

11/14/12 stopped out at $55.75
11/03/12 new stop loss @ 55.75
10/26/12 JOY seeing volatility on rumors it is a takeover target
09/25/12 triggered on a dip at $57.50
09/22/12 adjust entry to buy a dip at $57.50, stop to $53.90

Chart of JOY:

Current Target: $78.50
Current Stop loss: 55.75
Play Entered on: 09/25/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/15/12


Pfizer Inc. - PFE - close: 23.86

Comments:
11/17/12: Shares of PFE have been threatening us with a breakdown under support near $24.00 and its 100-dma for days. Shares finally hit our stop loss at $23.90 on Nov 13th.

- Suggested Positions -
Jul 18, 2012 - entry price on PFE @ 23.53, option @ 1.30
symbol: PFE1418A25 2014 JAN $25 call - exit @ $1.26 (-3.0%)

11/13/12 stopped out at $23.90
11/01/12 PFE reported earnings
10/20/12 new stop loss @ 23.90
10/06/12 new stop loss @ 23.40
09/29/12 new stop loss @ 22.75
09/22/12 new stop loss @ 22.45
09/08/12 new stop loss @ 21.90
08/06/12 new stop loss @ 21.35
07/18/12 trade opens. PFE @ 23.53
07/17/12 PFE meets our entry requirements (close over $23.40)
06/23/12 removed the 2013 call. We'll only play the 2014s
04/28/12 do not launch positions prior to the earnings report on May 1st.

Chart of pfe:

Current Target: $28.00
Current Stop loss: 23.90
Play Entered on: 07/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/21/12


U.S. Bancorp - USB - close: 31.55

Comments:
11/17/12: The sell-off in USB continued. Shares broke down through support near $32 and its 200-dma and exponential 200-dma. The stock hit our stop loss at $31.40 on Wednesday when the market produced a widespread plunge lower.

- Suggested Positions -
Jul 20, 2012 - entry price on USB @ 33.62, option @ 1.39
symbol: USB1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - exit @ $0.10 (-92.8%)

- or -

Jul 20, 2012 - entry price on USB @ 33.62, option @ 3.10
symbol: USB1418A35 2014 JAN $35 call - exit @ $1.45 (-53.2%)

11/14/12 stopped out at $31.40
09/15/12 new stop loss @ 31.40
07/20/12 trade opened Friday morning
07/19/12 USB closes above our trigger <33.50
07/14/12 adjusted strategy: wait for a close over $33.50, stop 29.90
06/30/12 readers might want to consider an alternative entry point
06/23/12 adjust entry trigger to $29.00, stop to 26.40
06/02/12 adjust entry trigger to $28.00

Chart of USB:

Current Target: $39.50
Current Stop loss: 31.40
Play Entered on: 07/20/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 05/19/12