Closed Plays


None. No closed plays this week.


Play Updates


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 32.83

Comments:
11/24/12: AIG spent the week consolidating sideways inside the $32-33 range. A breakout past $33 might portend a run towards the next level of resistance at $35.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep our initial position size small to limit our risk. We want to exit our 2013 calls when AIG hits $39.00. We will plan on exiting our 2014 calls when shares hit $42.50.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions @ first)
May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 3.40
symbol: AIG1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 3.25/ 3.35

- or -

May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 4.20
symbol: AIG1418A35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 3.65/ 3.85

11/02/12 AIG gapped down following its earnings report
10/06/12 adjusting our exit targets. Plan on exiting our 2013 calls when AIG hits $39.00. We'll exit our 2014 calls when AIG hits $42.50
09/08/12 Treasury has announced an $18 billion sale of AIG stock
08/18/12 new stop loss @ 29.45
06/16/12 new stop loss @ 26.95
05/18/12 triggered at $28.25
05/05/12 The U.S. government is planning to sell 164 million shares at $30.50 and AIG will probably gap down on this news.
Move the trigger down to $28.25, and move the stop loss to $25.75.
04/28/12 adjust buy-the-dip trigger to $30.00 and stop to $27.40

Current Target:$ 39.00
Current Stop loss: 29.45
Play Entered on: 05/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/07/12


Bank of America - BAC - close: 9.90

Comments:
11/24/12: It was a big week for BAC with a move from $9.12 to $9.90. Shares are once again nearing major resistance at the $10.00 mark. A strong close above $10.00 could be used as a new bullish entry point but you'll want to consider the 2014 calls. We only have a couple of months less on our 2013 calls.

Earlier Comments:
Currently we do not have a specific exit target. The plan has been to exit in the $12.00-15.00 zone.

- Suggested Positions -

AUG 29, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 8.10, option @ 1.50
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.42/ 0.43
(No stop loss on this position)

(2nd Position, bought the dip at $5.15)

NOV 23, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 5.15, option @ 0.35
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.42/ 0.43
(no stop loss on this position)

11/10/12 no new positions at this time.
09/08/12 BAC is breaking out. Consider buying 2014 calls on a dip near the $8.50-8.40 area
07/21/12 BAC reported earnings this past week and investors have decided to sell the news. The stock looks vulnerable here and readers may want to exit early!
05/19/12 BAC has pulled back to the 61.8% retracement
03/17/12 BAC has broken out from its multi-week trading range. Broken resistance near $8.30 should be new support.
...look for earlier comments in prior updates...

Current Target: $12.00-to-$15.00
Current Stop loss: see details above
Play Entered on: 08/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 08/27/11


CONSOL Energy Inc. - CNX - close: 32.69

Comments:
11/24/12: The performance in CNX last week was disappointing. The market is surging higher and yet shares of CNX were stuck sideways in the $32-33 zone. This relative weakness is worrisome. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small. Our long-term target is $42.50. The Point & Figure chart for CNX is bullish with a long-term $47 target.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 09, 2012 - entry price on CNX @ 32.50, option @ 3.24
symbol: CNX1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.63/ 2.81

11/09/12 triggered on a dip at $32.50
11/03/12 adjust the trigger down to $32.50, stop to $29.75
10/27/12 adjust the trigger down to $33.00

Current Target: $42.50
Current Stop loss: 29.75
Play Entered on: 11/09/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/13/12


Cree, Inc. - CREE - close: 31.37

Comments:
11/24/12: The action in CREE last week looked a lot like the SOX semiconductor index. Both went sideways until both saw a sharp spike higher on Friday's half day of trading. On a positive note the bounce does not confirm the prior week's bearish reversal pattern. Yet CREE remains under resistance at the $32.00 level. Readers may want to wait for a new close over $32.00 before initiating positions.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 01, 2012 - entry price on CREE @ 29.85, option @ 3.80
symbol:CREE1418a35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 4.10/ 4.40

Current Target:$ 39.00
Current Stop loss: 27.45
Play Entered on: 11/01/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


Discover Financial - DFS - close: 41.46

Comments:
11/24/12: DFS rallied two dollars last week but most of that was on Monday and Tuesday. The stock's upward momentum is slowing as it approaches resistance in the $41.50-42.00 zone.

More conservative traders might want to consider taking profits now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

We still have the 2014 calls and we're aiming for $44.00. Aggressive traders could aim higher.

- Suggested Positions -
(Closed on Sept. 27th)
JUL 05, 2012 - entry price on DFS @ 35.28, option @ 2.15
symbol: DFS1319A37 2013 JAN $37 call - exit $3.70 (+72.0%)

- or -

JUL 05, 2012 - entry price on DFS @ 35.28, option @ 3.40
symbol: DFS1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $5.50/5.90

11/03/12 new stop loss @ 36.45
09/29/12 new stop loss @ 35.75
09/27/12 hits our $39.75 target to exit 2013 calls (option @ $3.70)
09/27/12 DFS beats Wall Street's earnings estimates
09/22/12 more conservative traders may want to exit right now or before DFS reports earnings on Sep 27th.
08/25/12 new stop loss @ 34.75
08/25/12 adjusted targets to $39.75 (2013 calls), $44 (2014 calls)
08/18/12 new stop loss @ 33.45
...see prior updates for early comments.

Current Target: $39.75 for the 2013 call2, $44.00 for the 2014s
Current Stop loss: 36.45
Play Entered on: 07/05/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/02/12


Family Dollar Stores - FDO - close: 70.10

Comments:
11/24/12: It was a strong week for FDO. The stock added more than three points and is testing resistance at the $70.00 level. I breakout past $70 would be bullish but I wouldn't chase it here, not for a long-term position. Broken resistance near the $67 area should be support so if you're looking for a LEAPS entry point consider waiting for a bounce there.

Please note our new stop loss at $64.75.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 12, 2012 - entry price on FDO @ 65.88, option @ 1.70
symbol: FDO1320d75 2013 APR $75 call - current bid/ask $2.10/2.30

11/24/12 new stop loss @ 64.75
10/20/12 adjust stop loss to $62.95

Current Target: $74.50
Current Stop loss: 64.75
Play Entered on: 10/12/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/06/12


General Electric - GE - close: 21.04

Comments:
11/24/12: The oversold bounce in shares of GE continues. Shares were showing relative strength on Friday with a +1.7% gain. The close over potential resistance at $21.00 is bullish but I would not be surprised to see a pullback soon.

Overall our trade is working as planned. We will adjust our stop loss higher to $19.75.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 14, 2012 - entry price on GE @ 20.25, option @ 0.42
symbol: GE1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $0.47/0.49

11/24/12 new stop loss @ 19.75
11/14/12 triggered at $20.25
11/10/12 adjust the trigger down to $20.25, just above the 200-dma, stop to $19.25
10/27/12 move the buy-the-dip trigger down to $20.50
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $21.00 and our stop to $19.45

Current Target: $27.50
Current Stop loss: 19.75
Play Entered on: 11/14/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/22/12


Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 38.68

Comments:
11/24/12: The big bounce in the homebuilders continues although momentum seems to be slowing. LEN is nearing prior resistance in the $39.00-39.50 area. I am not suggesting new positions with the stock sitting just under resistance.

Earlier Comments:
I do think the $40.00 level is likely resistance and LEN will probably see a pullback on its initial test of $40.00. Keep in mind that we also have more than a year for our 2014 calls to work.

- Suggested Positions -
(target for 2013 calls was hit at $36.00 on 09/14/2012)
AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on LEN @ 32.72, option @ 2.07
symbol: LEN1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - exit $3.70 (+78.7%)

- or -

AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on LEN @ 32.72, option @ 3.39
symbol: LEN1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $5.75/5.95

10/20/12 new stop loss @ 33.90, adjust exit target on 2014 calls to $44.00
09/24/12 LEN reported earnings, investors sell the news
09/22/12 new stop loss @ 33.40
09/15/12 new stop loss @ 31.40
09/14/12 2013 call target hit at $36.00, option @ 3.70 (+78.7%)
...

Current Target: $ 36.00(2013 calls), $44.00 (2014 call)
Current Stop loss: 33.90
Play Entered on: 08/17/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/11/12


L-3 Communications - LLL - close: 76.33

Comments:
11/24/12: It was a good week for LLL. The stock added more than two points and closed back above resistance at the $75.00 level. Readers may want to use the next dip or bounce from $75.00 as a new entry point.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 05, 2012 - entry price on LLL @ 75.64, option @ 4.40
symbol: LLL1418a80 2014 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 4.20/ 4.70

Current Target:$ 85.00
Current Stop loss: 71.85
Play Entered on: 11/05/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


Nokia Corp. - NOK - close: 3.56

Comments:
11/24/12: Thanksgiving week proved to be very bullish for NOK. The stock soared more than +28% in the last four trading days. NOK was on our watch list. The plan was to wait for shares to close over $2.85 and then open bullish positions the next day. The stock met our entry requirement on Nov. 19th with a close at $2.94. Our trade opened the next day when NOK opened at $2.97 and the option opened at $0.78.

At this point I would wait for a pullback. A dip back toward $3.20 might be our next entry point but I suggest patience.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to buy NOK the stock or the 2014 calls.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 20, 2012 - entry price on NOK @ 2.97, option @ 0.78
symbol: NOK1418a3 2014 JAN $3 call - current bid/ask $ 1.16/ 1.17

- or -

Buy NOK stock: entry @ 2.97

Chart of NOK:

Current Target:$ 4.95
Current Stop loss: 2.49
Play Entered on: 11/20/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/17/12


Southern Copper Corp - SCCO - close: 36.35

Comments:
11/24/12: The rebound continues with gusto in shares of SCCO. The stock is up six days in a row and up almost +8% in just the past week. The breakout past $36.00 and its 50-dma is technically bullish but shares look short-term overbought. Odds are good SCCO will see a pullback soon.

Please note that I am raising our stop loss up to $33.25.

The plan was to keep our position size small to start.

- Suggested *SMALL* Positions -
NOV 06, 2012 - entry price on SCCO @ 35.78, option @ 2.30
symbol:SCCO1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.00/ 2.35

11/24/12 new stop loss @ 33.25
11/06/12 trade opened on gap down at $35.78, below our trigger.
(gap down was due to SCCO trading ex-dividend)

Current Target: $44.75
Current Stop loss: 33.25
Play Entered on: 11/06/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


SIRIUS XM Radio - SIRI - close: 2.78

Comments:
11/24/12: Gains in SIRI were pretty mild last week. Shares have yet to break the short-term bearish trend of lower highs. Although it's worth noting that the pullback from its October-November highs looks like a bull-flag consolidation pattern. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 04, 2012 - entry price on SIRI @ 2.75, option @ 0.38
symbol:SIRI1418A3 2014 JAN $3.00 call - current bid/ask $ 0.40/ 0.45

- or -

Buy the Stock: Entry @ $2.75 on Oct. 4th, 2012

11/03/12 new stop loss @ 2.45
10/20/12 warning! SIRI is up five weeks in a row and growing overbought. The stock could see a sell-off on its earnings report

Current Target: $ 3.90
Current Stop loss: 2.45
Play Entered on: 10/04/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/29/12


Visa, Inc. - V - close: 148.12

Comments:
11/24/12: Investors have a big decision to make. We have 2014 January calls. That's over a year away. The stock is fast approaching our $149.00 target. Do you exit at $149.00 or do you hold on for what will probably be a volatile year. I am not advising you hold these calls for another year. You'll need to see a new target if you choose to hold on. This newsletter will plan on exiting at $149.00, which could be hit as early as Monday morning. The trend in Visa is definitely higher but shares are near the top of their bullish channel and the $150 level could prove to be round-number, psychological resistance.

We will raise our stop loss up to $137.00.

- Suggested Positions -
(Closed the 2013 calls on Oct. 22nd at the open)
JUL 03, 2012 - entry price on V @ 126.49, option @ 5.85
symbol: V1319A135 2013 JAN $135 call - exit @ $7.95 (+35.8%)

- or -

JUL 03, 2012 - entry price on V @ 126.49, option @ 11.95
symbol: V1418A140 2014 JAN $140 call - current bid/ask $19.40/19.80

11/24/12 new stop loss @ 137.00, planning to exit at $149.00
11/03/12 New stop loss @ 134.00
10/31/12 Visa delivers a bullish earnings report
10/22/12 closed 2013 Jan call at the open
10/20/12 prepare to exit our 2013 calls at the open on Monday
10/13/12 readers may want to take profits early if you're holding the 2013 calls.
10/06/12 new stop loss @ 129.00
08/06/12 new stop loss @ 119.75
07/16/12 V pops on news of a settlement in 7-year lawsuit
07/03/12 trade opens with Visa at $126.49
07/02/12 Visa closes above our trigger @ 125.50

Current Target: $149.00
Current Stop loss: 137.00
Play Entered on: 07/03/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/30/12


Valero Energy - VLO - close: 31.92

Comments:
11/24/12: It turned out to be a very bullish week for VLO. Shares rallied from $29.36 to almost $32 in the last four trading days. VLO was on our watch list and the plan was to wait for shares to close over $30.60 and then buy calls the next day. VLO closed at $30.55 on Nov. 20th. Wednesday saw the stock close at $31.00. Our trade opened on Friday morning with the gap higher at $31.25. If you missed it, then I would wait. After a four-day rally I would expect a pullback. Readers will probably see a better entry point on a dip back to the $31.00 level.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 23, 2012 - entry price on VLO @ 31.25, option @ 3.30*
symbol: VLO1418a35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 3.40/ 3.60

11/23/12 trade opened on gap open higher at $31.25
*Entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play opened.

Chart of VLO:

Current Target: $39.75
Current Stop loss: 27.75
Play Entered on: 11/23/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/10/12