Closed Plays


V hit our exit target


Play Updates


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 33.13

Comments:
12/01/12: AIG is slowly working its way higher off the November low. Yet there is still likely resistance near $34.00 and its 50-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep our initial position size small to limit our risk. We want to exit our 2013 calls when AIG hits $39.00. We will plan on exiting our 2014 calls when shares hit $42.50.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions @ first)
May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 3.40
symbol: AIG1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 3.45/ 3.55

- or -

May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 4.20
symbol: AIG1418A35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 3.80/ 3.90

11/02/12 AIG gapped down following its earnings report
10/06/12 adjusting our exit targets. Plan on exiting our 2013 calls when AIG hits $39.00. We'll exit our 2014 calls when AIG hits $42.50
09/08/12 Treasury has announced an $18 billion sale of AIG stock
08/18/12 new stop loss @ 29.45
06/16/12 new stop loss @ 26.95
05/18/12 triggered at $28.25
05/05/12 The U.S. government is planning to sell 164 million shares at $30.50 and AIG will probably gap down on this news.
Move the trigger down to $28.25, and move the stop loss to $25.75.
04/28/12 adjust buy-the-dip trigger to $30.00 and stop to $27.40

Current Target:$ 39.00
Current Stop loss: 29.45
Play Entered on: 05/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/07/12


Bank of America - BAC - close: 9.86

Comments:
12/01/12: BAC lost four cents for the week. Yet traders bought the dip on Thursday morning and now BAC looks poised to try and breakout past resistance near the $10.00 mark.

A strong close above $10.00 could be used as a new bullish entry point but you'll want to consider the 2014 calls. We only have a couple of months less on our 2013 calls.

Earlier Comments:
Currently we do not have a specific exit target. The plan has been to exit in the $12.00-15.00 zone.

- Suggested Positions -

AUG 29, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 8.10, option @ 1.50
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.39/ 0.40
(No stop loss on this position)

(2nd Position, bought the dip at $5.15)

NOV 23, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 5.15, option @ 0.35
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.39/ 0.40
(no stop loss on this position)

11/10/12 no new positions at this time.
09/08/12 BAC is breaking out. Consider buying 2014 calls on a dip near the $8.50-8.40 area
07/21/12 BAC reported earnings this past week and investors have decided to sell the news. The stock looks vulnerable here and readers may want to exit early!
05/19/12 BAC has pulled back to the 61.8% retracement
03/17/12 BAC has broken out from its multi-week trading range. Broken resistance near $8.30 should be new support.
...look for earlier comments in prior updates...

Current Target: $12.00-to-$15.00
Current Stop loss: see details above
Play Entered on: 08/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 08/27/11


CONSOL Energy Inc. - CNX - close: 31.35

Comments:
12/01/12: I am concerned over our CNX trade. The stock underperformed the market and looks ready to breakdown under the multi-month trend of higher lows. Odds are good we could see CNX testing what should be round-number support at $30.00 soon. Our stop loss is currently at $29.75. More conservative traders may want to consider an early exit now to cut their losses.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small. Our long-term target is $42.50. The Point & Figure chart for CNX is bullish with a long-term $47 target.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 09, 2012 - entry price on CNX @ 32.50, option @ 3.24
symbol: CNX1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.10/ 2.27

12/02/12 readers may want to exit early now
11/09/12 triggered on a dip at $32.50
11/03/12 adjust the trigger down to $32.50, stop to $29.75
10/27/12 adjust the trigger down to $33.00

Current Target: $42.50
Current Stop loss: 29.75
Play Entered on: 11/09/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/13/12


Cree, Inc. - CREE - close: 32.31

Comments:
12/01/12: CREE had been showing impressive relative strength with a sharp breakout higher earlier in the week. The rally was cut short with an analyst downgraded on the 29th. Fortunately traders bought the dip on Friday morning. I am raising our stop loss to $28.45.

This close above $32.00 could be used as an alternative entry point for bullish positions.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 01, 2012 - entry price on CREE @ 29.85, option @ 3.80
symbol:CREE1418a35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 4.40/ 4.70

12/02/12 new stop loss @ 28.45

Current Target:$ 39.00
Current Stop loss: 28.45
Play Entered on: 11/01/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


Discover Financial - DFS - close: 41.61

Comments:
12/01/12: DFS only produced an anemic gain for the week. The stock is struggling with resistance near the $42.00 level. A breakout here would be a new all-time record high. I am raising our stop loss to $36.95.

More conservative traders might want to consider taking profits now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

We still have the 2014 calls and we're aiming for $44.00. Aggressive traders could aim higher.

- Suggested Positions -
(Closed on Sept. 27th)
JUL 05, 2012 - entry price on DFS @ 35.28, option @ 2.15
symbol: DFS1319A37 2013 JAN $37 call - exit $3.70 (+72.0%)

- or -

JUL 05, 2012 - entry price on DFS @ 35.28, option @ 3.40
symbol: DFS1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $5.60/5.90

12/02/12 new stop loss @ 36.95
11/03/12 new stop loss @ 36.45
09/29/12 new stop loss @ 35.75
09/27/12 hits our $39.75 target to exit 2013 calls (option @ $3.70)
09/27/12 DFS beats Wall Street's earnings estimates
09/22/12 more conservative traders may want to exit right now or before DFS reports earnings on Sep 27th.
08/25/12 new stop loss @ 34.75
08/25/12 adjusted targets to $39.75 (2013 calls), $44 (2014 calls)
08/18/12 new stop loss @ 33.45
...see prior updates for early comments.

Current Target: $ $44.00 for the 2014s
Current Stop loss: 36.95
Play Entered on: 07/05/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/02/12


Expedia Inc. - EXPE - close: 61.86

Comments:
12/01/12: EXPE is a watch list candidate that has graduated to our active trade list. This online travel site has been showing relative strength. Shares had been testing resistance near $60.00 and broke out to new all-time record highs. The plan was to wait for shares to close over $61.50 and then buy calls the next day. EXPE met our entry point requirement on Nov. 28th with a close at $61.73. Our trade opened the next day. I would still consider new positions now or nimble traders could open positions on a dip near $60.00.

Earlier Comments:
I would consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade because EXPE can be so volatile. We will want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 29, 2012 - entry price on EXPE @ 61.84, option @ 6.00
symbol: EXPE1418a75 2014 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $5.70/6.00

Chart of EXPE:

Current Target: $79.00
Current Stop loss: 54.40
Play Entered on: 11/29/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/24/12


Family Dollar Stores - FDO - close: 71.20

Comments:
12/01/12: FDO had been consolidating sideways under resistance near $70.00. Traders bought the dip midweek near its rising 10-dma. The follow through on this bounce has produced a bullish breakout above $70.00. The next level of resistance should be the $74.50-75.00 area. Our target is $74.50. More aggressive traders could aim higher.

Please note our new stop loss at $66.45.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 12, 2012 - entry price on FDO @ 65.88, option @ 1.70
symbol: FDO1320d75 2013 APR $75 call - current bid/ask $2.50/2.75

12/02/12 new stop loss @ 66.45
11/24/12 new stop loss @ 64.75
10/20/12 adjust stop loss to $62.95

Current Target: $74.50
Current Stop loss: 66.45
Play Entered on: 10/12/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/06/12


First Solar Inc. - FSLR - close: 26.99

Comments:
12/01/12: FSLR is another watch list candidate that has graduated to our active trade list. After a massive plunge from the $170 area back in early 2011 to under $12 in June this year it looks like FSLR has finally found a bottom. Shares had been consolidating under resistance near $26.00 for several weeks. Our plan was to wait for shares to close over $26.00 and buy calls the next day.

FSLR met our entry point requirement on Nov. 27th with a close at $26.28. Our trade opened the next day. Readers could launch new positions now or wait for a dip back to $26.00, which should be short-term support.

FYI: Readers will be interested to hear that there seem to be rumors that FSLR might be a takeover candidate and that could be helping fuel gains.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 28, 2012 - entry price on FSLR @ 26.20, option @ 5.00
symbol: FSLR1418a30 2014 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $5.05/5.55

Chart of FSLR:

Current Target: $39.75
Current Stop loss: 21.90
Play Entered on: 11/28/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/10/12


General Electric - GE - close: 21.13

Comments:
12/01/12: Gains in GE slowed last week but it still managed gains. The stock seems to be struggling with technical resistance at its 100-dma. I would still consider new positions now or on another bounce off the $20.50 level.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 14, 2012 - entry price on GE @ 20.25, option @ 0.42
symbol: GE1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $0.49/0.52

11/24/12 new stop loss @ 19.75
11/14/12 triggered at $20.25
11/10/12 adjust the trigger down to $20.25, just above the 200-dma, stop to $19.25
10/27/12 move the buy-the-dip trigger down to $20.50
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $21.00 and our stop to $19.45

Current Target: $27.50
Current Stop loss: 19.75
Play Entered on: 11/14/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/22/12


Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 38.04

Comments:
12/01/12: Shares of LEN actually lost ground last week. The stock failed at resistance in the $39.00 area (yet again). More conservative traders may want to take profits now. I am not suggesting new positions with the stock sitting just under resistance.

Earlier Comments:
I do think the $40.00 level is likely resistance and LEN will probably see a pullback on its initial test of $40.00. Keep in mind that we also have more than a year for our 2014 calls to work.

- Suggested Positions -
(target for 2013 calls was hit at $36.00 on 09/14/2012)
AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on LEN @ 32.72, option @ 2.07
symbol: LEN1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - exit $3.70 (+78.7%)

- or -

AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on LEN @ 32.72, option @ 3.39
symbol: LEN1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $5.40/5.60

10/20/12 new stop loss @ 33.90, adjust exit target on 2014 calls to $44.00
09/24/12 LEN reported earnings, investors sell the news
09/22/12 new stop loss @ 33.40
09/15/12 new stop loss @ 31.40
09/14/12 2013 call target hit at $36.00, option @ 3.70 (+78.7%)
...

Current Target: $ 36.00(2013 calls), $44.00 (2014 call)
Current Stop loss: 33.90
Play Entered on: 08/17/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/11/12


L-3 Communications - LLL - close: 76.85

Comments:
12/01/12: LLL only added about half a point for the week. Shares had rallied right to resistance at its early November high and started to pull back. If the decline gets too steep it will start to look like a bearish double top. Broken resistance near $75.00 should still offer support. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 05, 2012 - entry price on LLL @ 75.64, option @ 4.40
symbol: LLL1418a80 2014 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 3.50/ 4.80

Current Target:$ 85.00
Current Stop loss: 71.85
Play Entered on: 11/05/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


Motorola Solutions - MSI - close: 54.45

Comments:
12/01/12: MSI didn't make any progress. Shares spent most of the week consolidating sideways inside the $54-55 zone. If you were waiting for a dip to $54.00 you definitely got it. I remain long-term bullish here but I am starting to wonder if MSI won't see a dip to $53.00 first before moving higher. Right now there is short-term resistance near $55.00. Readers may want to wait for the next dip and buy a bounce.

Our long-term target is $65.00. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish and is forecasting at $70 target.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 26, 2012 - entry price on MSI @ 54.11, option @ 2.93
symbol: MSI1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 2.76/ 2.91

Current Target:$65.00
Current Stop loss: 49.75
Play Entered on: 11/26/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/17/12


Nokia Corp. - NOK - close: 3.26

Comments:
12/01/12: I warned readers a week ago that after NOK's +28% surge the stock would see a pullback. Monday and Tuesday last week produced a -10.9% correction. Shares have spent the last few days hovering around the 200-dma. One of the major headlines last week was news that NOK won a key ruling in its patent infringement suit against Research in Motion (RIMM).

I am not suggesting new positions at the moment. Broken resistance near $3.00 should offer some support.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to buy NOK the stock or the 2014 calls.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 20, 2012 - entry price on NOK @ 2.97, option @ 0.78
symbol: NOK1418a3 2014 JAN $3 call - current bid/ask $ 0.95/ 0.99

- or -

Buy NOK stock: entry @ 2.97

Current Target:$ 4.95
Current Stop loss: 2.49
Play Entered on: 11/20/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/17/12


Southern Copper Corp - SCCO - close: 36.30

Comments:
12/01/12: A rally in metal prices, especially copper, has helped fuel a rally in shares of SCCO. Yet SCCO actually lost five cents for the week (although the option grew in value, slightly). Technically Friday's pullback in SCCO is a bearish reversal pattern. Readers may want to wait for a dip back toward $35.00 and then buy calls on a bounce.

The plan was to keep our position size small to start.

- Suggested *SMALL* Positions -
NOV 06, 2012 - entry price on SCCO @ 35.78, option @ 2.30
symbol:SCCO1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.10/ 2.45

11/24/12 new stop loss @ 33.25
11/06/12 trade opened on gap down at $35.78, below our trigger.
(gap down was due to SCCO trading ex-dividend)

Current Target: $44.75
Current Stop loss: 33.25
Play Entered on: 11/06/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


SIRIUS XM Radio - SIRI - close: 2.77

Comments:
12/01/12: It was a quiet week for SIRI and the stock closed virtually unchanged for the week. Shares are coiling between a trend of higher lows and a short-term trend of lower highs. I would expect a breakout higher past recent resistance near $2.80 soon. Readers may want to launch new positions on a close above $2.83 again.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 04, 2012 - entry price on SIRI @ 2.75, option @ 0.38
symbol:SIRI1418A3 2014 JAN $3.00 call - current bid/ask $ 0.40/ 0.42

- or -

Buy the Stock: Entry @ $2.75 on Oct. 4th, 2012

11/03/12 new stop loss @ 2.45
10/20/12 warning! SIRI is up five weeks in a row and growing overbought. The stock could see a sell-off on its earnings report

Current Target: $ 3.90
Current Stop loss: 2.45
Play Entered on: 10/04/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/29/12


Valero Energy - VLO - close: 32.26

Comments:
12/01/12: Natural gas prices saw some profit taking last week while crude oil prices churned sideways. That didn't stop the rally in VLO, which hit new four-week highs. Traders bought the dip near its rising 10-dma on Wednesday. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 23, 2012 - entry price on VLO @ 31.25, option @ 3.30*
symbol: VLO1418a35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 3.55/ 3.70

11/23/12 trade opened on gap open higher at $31.25
*Entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play opened.

Current Target: $39.75
Current Stop loss: 27.75
Play Entered on: 11/23/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/10/12


CLOSED Plays


Visa, Inc. - V - close: 149.71

Comments:
12/01/12: Target achieved.

Visa managed to breakout past resistance near $148.00 and rallied toward psychological round-number resistance at $150.00. Our exit target at $149.00 was hit on Friday.

The long-term trend for Visa is up but the stock is near the top of its bullish channel. Nimble traders may want to wait for a pullback toward its trend of higher lows before considering new positions.

- Suggested Positions -
JUL 03, 2012 - entry price on V @ 126.49, option @ 11.95
symbol: V1418A140 2014 JAN $140 call - exit @ $19.70 (+64.8%)

11/30/12 target hit at $149.00
11/24/12 new stop loss @ 137.00, planning to exit at $149.00
11/03/12 New stop loss @ 134.00
10/31/12 Visa delivers a bullish earnings report
10/22/12 closed 2013 Jan call at the open
10/20/12 prepare to exit our 2013 calls at the open on Monday
10/13/12 readers may want to take profits early if you're holding the 2013 calls.
10/06/12 new stop loss @ 129.00
08/06/12 new stop loss @ 119.75
07/16/12 V pops on news of a settlement in 7-year lawsuit
07/03/12 trade opens with Visa at $126.49
07/02/12 Visa closes above our trigger @ 125.50

Chart of V:

Current Target: $149.00
Current Stop loss: 137.00
Play Entered on: 07/03/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/30/12