Closed Plays


None. No closed plays this week.


Play Updates


Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 35.48

Comments:
12/08/12: ADBE has produced an impressive three-week rally. The stock was on our watch list. The plan was to wait for shares to breakout of its multi-month sideways consolidation. I suggested we wait for ADBE to close over $35.25 and buy calls the next day. The stock closed at $35.30 on Dec. 4th so our trade opened on Dec. 5th with ADBE at $35.30. I would still consider new positions now. If you are more of a buy the dip sort of investor then look for a dip near $34.50. It is possible that the $36.00 level is short-term resistance so an alternative entry point would be a close above $36.00 instead. Our long-term target is $44.00.

NOTE: Investors should be aware that ADBE is due to report earnings on Dec. 13th, after the closing bell. A disappointment could send the stock crashing.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 05, 2012 - entry price on ADBE @ 35.30, option @ 2.32
symbol:ADBE1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.32/ 2.47

Chart of ADBE:

Current Target:$ 44.00
Current Stop loss: 32.25
Play Entered on: 12/05/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/03/12


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 34.13

Comments:
12/08/12: AIG garnered some bullish analyst comments this past week. That helped the stock add one dollar for the week. Shares are approaching prior resistance at the $35.00 level. After a three-week bounce it might be time for a dip. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

NOTE: With less than two months to go on our 2013 calls we may adjust our exit down to $37.00.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep our initial position size small to limit our risk. We want to exit our 2013 calls when AIG hits $39.00. We will plan on exiting our 2014 calls when shares hit $42.50.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions @ first)
May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 3.40
symbol: AIG1319A30 2013 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $ 4.30/ 4.40

- or -

May 18, 2012 - entry price on AIG @ 28.25, option @ 4.20
symbol: AIG1418A35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 4.20/ 4.35

11/02/12 AIG gapped down following its earnings report
10/06/12 adjusting our exit targets. Plan on exiting our 2013 calls when AIG hits $39.00. We'll exit our 2014 calls when AIG hits $42.50
09/08/12 Treasury has announced an $18 billion sale of AIG stock
08/18/12 new stop loss @ 29.45
06/16/12 new stop loss @ 26.95
05/18/12 triggered at $28.25
05/05/12 The U.S. government is planning to sell 164 million shares at $30.50 and AIG will probably gap down on this news.
Move the trigger down to $28.25, and move the stop loss to $25.75.
04/28/12 adjust buy-the-dip trigger to $30.00 and stop to $27.40

Current Target:$ 39.00
Current Stop loss: 29.45
Play Entered on: 05/18/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 04/07/12


Bank of America - BAC - close: 10.64

Comments:
12/08/12: It was a bullish week for BAC. The stock rallied nearly +8%. The breakout past resistance at $10.00 is very bullish. Broken resistance at $10 should now be new support. A bounce off this $10 level could prove to be a new bullish entry point to buy 2014 calls.

Right now we have two positions, both with the 2013 Jan $10 calls. With less than two months to go we need to start looking for an exit. I am assigning a $10.90 exit target for our Nov. 2011 position.

Earlier Comments:
Currently we do not have a specific exit target for our August 2011 position.

- Suggested Positions -

AUG 29, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 8.10, option @ 1.50
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.84/ 0.85
(No stop loss on this position)

(2nd Position, bought the dip at $5.15)

NOV 23, 2011 - entry price on BAC @ 5.15, option @ 0.35
symbol: BAC1319A10 2013 JAN $10 call - current bid/ask $ 0.84/ 0.85
(no stop loss on this position)

12/08/12 assigning a $10.90 exit target for the Nov. 2011 position
11/10/12 no new positions at this time.
09/08/12 BAC is breaking out. Consider buying 2014 calls on a dip near the $8.50-8.40 area
07/21/12 BAC reported earnings this past week and investors have decided to sell the news. The stock looks vulnerable here and readers may want to exit early!
05/19/12 BAC has pulled back to the 61.8% retracement
03/17/12 BAC has broken out from its multi-week trading range. Broken resistance near $8.30 should be new support.
...look for earlier comments in prior updates...

Current Target: *see play details
Current Stop loss: see details above
Play Entered on: 08/29/11
Originally listed in the New Plays 08/27/11


CONSOL Energy Inc. - CNX - close: 33.04

Comments:
12/08/12: Good news, it looks like CNX is starting to bounce off its multi-month trend of higher lows. This past week has produced a bullish breakout over the multi-week trend of lower highs. I remain cautious on this trade and I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small. Our long-term target is $42.50. The Point & Figure chart for CNX is bullish with a long-term $47 target.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 09, 2012 - entry price on CNX @ 32.50, option @ 3.24
symbol: CNX1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.65/ 2.81

12/02/12 readers may want to exit early now
11/09/12 triggered on a dip at $32.50
11/03/12 adjust the trigger down to $32.50, stop to $29.75
10/27/12 adjust the trigger down to $33.00

Current Target: $42.50
Current Stop loss: 29.75
Play Entered on: 11/09/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/13/12


Cree, Inc. - CREE - close: 32.74

Comments:
12/08/12: The SOX semiconductor index is up three weeks in a row and nearing resistance at the 380 level. A breakout here would be good news for the sector. CREE is also up three weeks in a row. The stock is trying to push through resistance in the $33-34 range.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 01, 2012 - entry price on CREE @ 29.85, option @ 3.80
symbol:CREE1418a35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 4.70/ 4.95

12/02/12 new stop loss @ 28.45

Current Target:$ 39.00
Current Stop loss: 28.45
Play Entered on: 11/01/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


Discover Financial - DFS - close: 41.15

Comments:
12/08/12: DFS spent most of the week consolidating lower. The stock has failed at resistance near $42.00 yet again. Although on a positive note traders did buy the dip near its 50-dma this past week. It is possible that we might see DFS consolidate sideways until the company reports earnings on December 20th. More conservative traders may want to tighten their stops. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

We still have the 2014 calls and we're aiming for $44.00. Aggressive traders could aim higher.

- Suggested Positions -
(Closed on Sept. 27th)
JUL 05, 2012 - entry price on DFS @ 35.28, option @ 2.15
symbol: DFS1319A37 2013 JAN $37 call - exit $3.70 (+72.0%)

- or -

JUL 05, 2012 - entry price on DFS @ 35.28, option @ 3.40
symbol: DFS1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $5.30/5.80

12/02/12 new stop loss @ 36.95
11/03/12 new stop loss @ 36.45
09/29/12 new stop loss @ 35.75
09/27/12 hits our $39.75 target to exit 2013 calls (option @ $3.70)
09/27/12 DFS beats Wall Street's earnings estimates
09/22/12 more conservative traders may want to exit right now or before DFS reports earnings on Sep 27th.
08/25/12 new stop loss @ 34.75
08/25/12 adjusted targets to $39.75 (2013 calls), $44 (2014 calls)
08/18/12 new stop loss @ 33.45
...see prior updates for early comments.

Current Target: $ $44.00 for the 2014s
Current Stop loss: 36.95
Play Entered on: 07/05/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 06/02/12


Expedia Inc. - EXPE - close: 59.88

Comments:
12/08/12: After hitting new record highs during Thanksgiving week shares of EXPE hit some profit taking. The stock gave up about two points but spent most of the week hovering on either side of the $60 level. On Friday EXPE joined the special dividend parade on Wall Street. They announced a special cash dividend of 52 cents a share payable on December 28th, 2012 to shareholders on record as of Dec. 17th.

If you were looking for a dip near $60 as your entry point you got it. I don't see any changes from my prior comments.

Earlier Comments:
I would consider this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade because EXPE can be so volatile. We will want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 29, 2012 - entry price on EXPE @ 61.84, option @ 6.00
symbol: EXPE1418a75 2014 JAN $75 call - current bid/ask $4.90/5.20

Current Target: $79.00
Current Stop loss: 54.40
Play Entered on: 11/29/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/24/12


Family Dollar Stores - FDO - close: 71.00

Comments:
12/08/12: FDO only lost 20 cents for the week. Shares are on the rebound after traders started buying the dip on Thursday morning. Readers might want to inch up their stop loss. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. The next level of resistance should be the $74.50-75.00 area. Our target is $74.50. More aggressive traders could aim higher.

FYI: In the news this past week FDO moved its next quarterly cash dividend payment to be payable on Dec. 27th for shareholders on record as of Dec. 14th. The dividend is 21 cents a share.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 12, 2012 - entry price on FDO @ 65.88, option @ 1.70
symbol: FDO1320d75 2013 APR $75 call - current bid/ask $2.25/2.45

12/02/12 new stop loss @ 66.45
11/24/12 new stop loss @ 64.75
10/20/12 adjust stop loss to $62.95

Current Target: $74.50
Current Stop loss: 66.45
Play Entered on: 10/12/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/06/12


First Solar Inc. - FSLR - close: 29.91

Comments:
12/08/12: Our FSLR trade is off to a strong start. Shares rallied +10.8% this past week. It would have been higher but the stock gave back -2.6% on Friday. Technically Friday's pullback is a bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern. I suspect there is a good chance we might see FSLR dip toward $28.00. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels. Please note our new stop loss at $24.40.

Earlier Comments:
FYI: Readers will be interested to hear that there seem to be rumors that FSLR might be a takeover candidate and that could be helping fuel gains.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 28, 2012 - entry price on FSLR @ 26.20, option @ 5.00
symbol: FSLR1418a30 2014 JAN $30 call - current bid/ask $6.75/7.15

12/08/12 new stop loss @ 24.40

Current Target: $39.75
Current Stop loss: 24.40
Play Entered on: 11/28/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/10/12


General Electric - GE - close: 21.46

Comments:
12/08/12: GE continues to march higher. The stock is up three weeks in a row. Shares are nearing potential resistance at $22 and its 50-dma. It might be time for a dip but look for support near the new short-term trend of higher lows.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 14, 2012 - entry price on GE @ 20.25, option @ 0.42
symbol: GE1418a25 2014 JAN $25 call - current bid/ask $0.52/0.55

11/24/12 new stop loss @ 19.75
11/14/12 triggered at $20.25
11/10/12 adjust the trigger down to $20.25, just above the 200-dma, stop to $19.25
10/27/12 move the buy-the-dip trigger down to $20.50
10/20/12 adjust the buy-the-dip trigger to $21.00 and our stop to $19.45

Current Target: $27.50
Current Stop loss: 19.75
Play Entered on: 11/14/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/22/12


Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 36.69

Comments:
12/08/12: Hmm... something happened to the homebuilders on Wednesday morning. The group spiked lower. The day before TOL reported earnings but shares of LEN really didn't move on TOL's report. I don't see an explanation for the industry weakness. Traders did buy the dip on Thursday morning.

Currently our stop loss is at $33.90. More conservative traders may want to move theirs closer to $35.00 instead. I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
I do think the $40.00 level is likely resistance and LEN will probably see a pullback on its initial test of $40.00. Keep in mind that we also have more than a year for our 2014 calls to work.

- Suggested Positions -
(target for 2013 calls was hit at $36.00 on 09/14/2012)
AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on LEN @ 32.72, option @ 2.07
symbol: LEN1319A35 2013 JAN $35 call - exit $3.70 (+78.7%)

- or -

AUG 17, 2012 - entry price on LEN @ 32.72, option @ 3.39
symbol: LEN1418A40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $4.60/4.70

10/20/12 new stop loss @ 33.90, adjust exit target on 2014 calls to $44.00
09/24/12 LEN reported earnings, investors sell the news
09/22/12 new stop loss @ 33.40
09/15/12 new stop loss @ 31.40
09/14/12 2013 call target hit at $36.00, option @ 3.70 (+78.7%)
...

Current Target: $ 36.00(2013 calls), $44.00 (2014 call)
Current Stop loss: 33.90
Play Entered on: 08/17/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 08/11/12


L-3 Communications - LLL - close: 76.65

Comments:
12/08/12: LLL spent the week consolidating sideways in the $75-77 zone. The stock looks poised to rebound higher but it has to get past resistance near $77.75.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 05, 2012 - entry price on LLL @ 75.64, option @ 4.40
symbol: LLL1418a80 2014 JAN $80 call - current bid/ask $ 4.20/ 4.60

Current Target:$ 85.00
Current Stop loss: 71.85
Play Entered on: 11/05/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


Motorola Solutions - MSI - close: 54.60

Comments:
12/08/12: Hmm... MSI didn't make that much progress. Shares broke out higher on Wednesday and hit new multi-year highs. Yet there was no follow through and the stock faded lower. I would not be surprised to see another dip toward short-term support near $54.00. I am not suggesting new positions at the moment.

Our long-term target is $65.00. Currently the Point & Figure chart is bullish and is forecasting at $70 target.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 26, 2012 - entry price on MSI @ 54.11, option @ 2.93
symbol: MSI1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 2.68/ 2.84

Current Target:$65.00
Current Stop loss: 49.75
Play Entered on: 11/26/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/17/12


Nokia Corp. - NOK - close: 3.85

Comments:
12/08/12: It was another big week for NOK. The stock soared +18%. Fueling gains was a combination of bullish analyst comments and news that NOK struck a deal in China. NOK inked a deal to sell its flagship phone, the new Lumia 920T, with China's largest carrier, China Mobile, who has about 700 million subscribers.

Shares of NOK remain short-term overbought here. The next hurdle is short-term resistance at $3.90 and probably round-number resistance at $4.00 and its 300-dma (also near $4.00).

Please note our new stop loss at $2.95.

I am not suggesting new positions at the moment.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to buy NOK the stock or the 2014 calls.

- Suggested Positions - (small positions)
NOV 20, 2012 - entry price on NOK @ 2.97, option @ 0.78
symbol: NOK1418a3 2014 JAN $3 call - current bid/ask $ 1.35/ 1.41

- or -

Buy NOK stock: entry @ 2.97

12/08/12 new stop loss @ $2.95

Current Target:$ 4.95
Current Stop loss: 2.95
Play Entered on: 11/20/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/17/12


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 53.64

Comments:
12/08/12: It was somewhat of a volatile week for SBUX. We had this stock on our watch list. The plan was to wait for shares to close above $52.50 and launch positions the next day. SBUX held an investor day conference this past week and announced its new growth plans for thousands of new stores. The stock initially sold off sharply but traders bought the dip near $50 and its 50-dma. The next day SBUX soared higher and broke out past resistance to hit new multi-month highs. A number of positive analyst comments helped fuel the gains. Thursday's close at $53.70 also qualified for our new entry point. The trade opened on Friday morning with SBUX gapping down at $53.43.

I would still consider new positions here but you'll probably get a better entry point if you want and buy calls on a dip into the $52.50-52.00 zone. It has taken several months but SBUX has finally recovered from the major bearish breakdown back in July 2012. Now shares are testing resistance near $52.00 and its simple 200-dma. A breakout here could signal the next leg higher.

I am suggesting we wait for a close over $52.50 and then buy calls the next day. If triggered we'll start with a stop loss at $47.75. Our initial target is the all-time high at $62.00.

- Suggested Positions -
DEC 07, 2012 - entry price on SBUX @ 53.43, option @ 3.80
symbol:SBUX1418a60 2014 JAN $60 call - current bid/ask $ 3.75/ 3.85

Chart of SBUX:

Current Target:$ 62.00
Current Stop loss: 47.75
Play Entered on: 12/07/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 12/02/12


Southern Copper Corp - SCCO - close: 38.18

Comments:
12/08/12: A sharp three-day surge higher helped SCCO add almost two dollars for the week. The stock has now filled the gap from early November. I would expect a short-term pullback soon but $37.00 could be new short-term support. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to start.

- Suggested *SMALL* Positions -
NOV 06, 2012 - entry price on SCCO @ 35.78, option @ 2.30
symbol:SCCO1418a40 2014 JAN $40 call - current bid/ask $ 2.55/ 3.00

11/24/12 new stop loss @ 33.25
11/06/12 trade opened on gap down at $35.78, below our trigger.
(gap down was due to SCCO trading ex-dividend)

Current Target: $44.75
Current Stop loss: 33.25
Play Entered on: 11/06/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 10/20/12


SIRIUS XM Radio - SIRI - close: 2.76

Comments:
12/08/12: SIRI spent most of the week consolidating sideways inside a 15-cent range. The stock eventually closed almost unchanged for the week. Shares gapped higher on Thursday morning in reaction to news that SIRI would launch a $2 billion stock buy back program and a special dividend yet traders sold the news. The special dividend is five cents a share payable on Dec. 28th to shareholders on record as of Dec. 18th.

At this point I would wait for a close over $2.85 before considering new bullish positions.

- Suggested Positions -
OCT 04, 2012 - entry price on SIRI @ 2.75, option @ 0.38
symbol:SIRI1418A3 2014 JAN $3.00 call - current bid/ask $ 0.36/ 0.38

- or -

Buy the Stock: Entry @ $2.75 on Oct. 4th, 2012

12/06/12 SIRI announces a stock buyback program and 5-cent dividend
11/03/12 new stop loss @ 2.45
10/20/12 warning! SIRI is up five weeks in a row and growing overbought. The stock could see a sell-off on its earnings report

Current Target: $ 3.90
Current Stop loss: 2.45
Play Entered on: 10/04/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 09/29/12


Valero Energy - VLO - close: 31.86

Comments:
12/08/12: It was a consolidation week for VLO. Shares pulled back to test the $31 level before bouncing. The dip may not be over yet. I would not be surprised to see a dip toward $30 or the 50-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels but a bounce from the $30.50-30.00 zone could be used as a new entry point.

- Suggested Positions -
NOV 23, 2012 - entry price on VLO @ 31.25, option @ 3.30*
symbol: VLO1418a35 2014 JAN $35 call - current bid/ask $ 3.25/ 3.40

11/23/12 trade opened on gap open higher at $31.25
*Entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play opened.

Current Target: $39.75
Current Stop loss: 27.75
Play Entered on: 11/23/12
Originally listed on the Watch List: 11/10/12